I Conn myself

Florida State opened as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Clemson, and that number has jumped to 5, as it should, in my estimation. Since five is just the sort of number the road dog can sneak under in a close game, im teasing down to FLORIDA STATE(pick)over clemson, over 128. As long as a defensive struggle doesn't erupt...make that emerge, this should go over.

In a similar matchup, I'm taking a dissimilar tack. Chad Millman remarked just before the Super Bowl that alot of the sharps in Vegas were betting the Colts moneyline, and then taking the Saints and the points. He said that the moneyline odds were more generous than usual in this game becaue of the increased action. While this seems counterintuitive to me, since so much of the action was on Indy (though alot of moneyline action tends to come in on the dog, since gamblers prefer to chase the big payout), I'm trying a similar tactic for Louisville at UConn. I've taken the UConn moneyline (UCONN -180), and louisville(-5)over UCONN. Unfortunately, I've just checked my bets, and unless UConn wins but fails to cover, I'm going to lose. Right now UConn is up, 28-19. Back to the drawing board. Shoulda taken UConn and not tried to outthink myself.

I also should have taken PENN ST(-2)over northwestern. N'western's win vs. Iowa made too big of an impression on me, and scared me off. That and the game started early, and I got up late. I should have researched Penn State a bit more though, and a bit sooner. These are the matchups that make college hoops so profitable. If I simply took every home team who was favored by 2.5 or less, and every home dog who was a 2.5 point dog or less, I would probably show a profit.

The result? Penn State, 79-60.

While Fla St is still favored by 5 elsewhere, bodog has upped them to 5.5. I feel like they aren't really a public team in hoops, so I suspect the line moves re from sharp $$, but I suppose ultimately I'm guessing.

Louisville just drained a 3 to bring it to 45-40 at the half. Maybe the Cardnails will keep me from making a fool out of myself. Not an easy task.

Full Tilt has a new thing called "Rush Poker." They throw you into a pool with a bunch of other players, and let you quick fold and immediately move to another table for another hand. You can literally play as fast as you want, slowing down only to play hands you like, and your blinds. If you don't bother to defend your blinds, it gets even faster.

What does all this mean from a strategic standpoint? Well, first of all, there is no metagame. Unless you find a small pool, where you can recognize players from previous hands, there is almost no chance to track the tendencies of other players, so this aspect of poker is pretty much eliminated. On the other hand, this minimizes the need to disguise your own play.

On the other hand, anyone who uses a program to track the play of their opponents may reap immense benefits from this, since they could be the only ones keeping track. I wonder if these programs can track 500+ players at once, since they do get this big. At the moment I'm in a pool with 648 players, for instance.

Louisville is now up 55-50. Ridiculous.

Where was I? Oh yeah. What can you do to take advantage of this new format? Here are some suggestions.

1.) Stay aware of position. Stay tight in early position. After all, you could be in any position next hand, and the hands come as quickly as you want.

2.) Steal the blinds. Alot. Other players are using the quck-fold option all the time, and some of them are doing it even when they are in the blinds. Even if they wait to see if anybody raises, they are already ready to fold as soon as somebody does. I usually hold off until I'm in one of the last 3 positions, but back there I'll raise with just about anything. I tend to vary the size of my raises, but I've found that 2.5x the size of the BB is often enough.

3.) Back down to reraises. You almost have to assume that a reraise means what it is supposed to mean. After all, how squirrley do you have to be with your blind steals for anybody to notice when you get a new group of players every hand? To reraise with nothing usually requires you to be fairly confident that your opponent is out of line. How confident can you be when you don't remember your opponent? It's like you're Eliza Dushku in Dollhouse...not only because you can't remember anything, but because your mind is turning into Jello.

4.) Slow the fuck down. Just because you can play at a breakneck speed, doesn't mean that you should. This style of play is exhausting. Let it exhaust your opponents. You don't need to keep moving. Just because you are surrounded by little fishes, swimming around, doesn't mean you have to be the shark. Be the croccidile instead. Lay there in the mud and wait for your prey. For your own sanity.

UConn just got the lead back, 70-68, 4 min left. The crowd is going mad, and these two teams jsut may save me from my own stupidity.

roQQboTTom teases Rocky Top...etc

Wow. That title sounds extremely gay.

I've teased TENNESSEE(+3)over kentucky up to TENNESSEE(+8),under 148. This was a last minute bet, after which I checked Accuscore. Their average simulation was Kentucky, 75-70. Maybe it would have made more sense to tease the over. According to them, it would have made more sense to tease Kentucky and the over...

I find that when good teams play each other there tends to be more defensive intensity...or whatever else explains less scoring. Kentucky's 58-56 win at Vanderbilt is a good recent example of this. On the other hand, Tennessee's 90-71 loss to Vandy on Feb 9th may be evidence to the contrary.

I've also taken TEXAS A&M(-1)over texas. Gig Em. This opened as a pick, and has moved to A&M by 1.5. I paid the -120 to get it down to 1. Without crunching any numbers or checking any results, I find that it's worth paying the half-point when betting tight spreads like this.

Tennesseeis up, 20-9 . It was 18-4 a minute ago. Right now I hope Tennessee tries to slow the game down. At the moment I think I'd feel better with Tennessee(+3) than with 8 and the teased under.

I've posted my A&M bet on covers.com's facebook page. So far I'm 3-0 on picks I've posted there, so mentioning this ought to jinx it. Click on that link, go to their page, and you can click on that link, and come back here. Love that internet.

The Aggs are favored by 2 now on bodog. Glad I didn't wait too long. I wonder if the books thought Texas would be getting action in this game.

SOB has taken Texas(+2). All this number crunching must be going to his head. Two weeks ago I think he would have taken the Aggies all day. He has also taken
baylor(-4.5)over OKLAHOMA. The Sooners haven't impressed anybody lately with their losing streak. Not in a good way, at least. The line has moved. So be it. baylor(-5) He also likes ALABAMA(-1.5)over ole miss. Unlike UT-TAMU, this pick seems to fit his system, so I'll do it too. 'BAMA(-1.5)...Make that 'BAMA(-1), (-120). Again, I'll pay the vig in this spot.

Georgia opened as a point favorite hosting Florida, but is now a point & a half dog. Bodog has moved them all the way to +2, a 3 point move. Maybe Florida beating Tennessee impressed bettors. For that matter, maybe Tennessee 74 Kentucky 65 is behind this move, making Florida's win even more impressive. Tennessee covered with or without my tease, as they won outright, but teasing the under didn't hurt me any, as the teased under (147) was 8 over the final score.

Accuscore predicts Florida by two as well. I'm tempted to take Georgia, but I've decided not to. If bodog would post a total so I could tease this I probably would do it.

I just tried to tease Kanas and Georgia, but both games have started. I don't like to tease or parlay results that are unrelated to one another, so this is probably just as well.

Baylor won and covered, 70-63, but 'Bama lost outright, 76-73. So far I'm 3-1 today. The Aggies beat Texas, 74-58.

I went 2-0 Thursday night, as Northwestern trounced Iowa, 74-57, making my tease of NW and the over unnecessary, and Wisconsin handled Indiana, 78-46. I thought I had a push on this one, since I'd parlayed Wisconsin and the under, and the 124 total matched the over/under. Apparently a push is good enough on a parlay.

Right now Georgia is making me wish I'd taken them and the two points, as they lead Florida, 45-30 at the half. On the other hand, Illinois, who I'd also considered as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Minnesota, trails 24-14 at the break. The only thing that looks better than the Gophers right now is the under (133).

Apparently a Beer truck knocked over a fire hydrant, and the resulting mess has delayed the start of Maryland at Virginia Tech, so far from 4:00 to 6:30. It sounds like they are going to limit the number of fans at the game because some of the bathrooms will be out of commission. Will this dampen VaTech's considerable home-court advantage (18-0 at home), or will the delay make things that much harder on the road team? Accuscore likes Maryland to win outright, though Tech opened as a point favorite, and the line has moved to Tech by 1.5. I think I'll pay it. The Pomeroy Ratings have Maryland 21 higher than VaTech, but they also had Texas 20 spots better than A&M, and we saw how that turned out. VA TECH(1.5)over maryland. Make that VATECH(-1). Again, I'll pay (-120) for the half-point.

I'm not crazy about betting the moneyline, but Syracuse(-210) over Villanova looks pretty good when you consider that Accuscore likes 'Cuse to win 73% of the time. On the other hand, they also think 'Cuse will cover the 4.5 point spread 63.5% of the time. Too bad bodog has 'Nova as a 5 point dog. Don't tease this one with the over or the under--Accuscore has these as being almost exactly evenly split. Contrast this with the Virginia Tech game, where Accuscore likes the under to hit 57.6% of the time. Too bad the cowards at bodog haven't posted a total for that game. Speaking of which, that game is now delayed until 7:00. Hopefully this is so the Hokies rabid fans can all pack themselves into Cassell Coliseum.

The Pomeroy ratings have unranked Missouri only 2 below Kansas State, which may explain why Accuscore has KState winning by an average of 2, even though they are favored by 6.5. The Cougars also may be looking forward to playing #1 Kansas on Wednesday, though by that time they may not be #1 anymore, as they are losing to Oklahoma State right now. No, they've lost, 85-77.

I'm taking missouri(+7)over KANSAS STATE...paying the vig again. I don't like taking road teams (though I've stated my reasons) so I'll take all the points I can get. I'm still considering a moneyline play, of Missouri(+220). Accuscore thinks they win this 47% of the time. I'll also take
SYRACUSE(-5)over villanova.

Virginia Tech is favored by 2 now. I wonder if the beer truck is influencing this one. Georgia ended up beating Florida, 78-76. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

Fading Hawkeyes, Hoosiers

I went 2-0 last night, as Minnesota lost but covered, 59-58 vs. Purdue, and Baylor failed to cover the 6.5 point spread, but covered my tease, beating Texas A&M, 70-66. Since the o/u was 136, teasing the over or the under both covered...In fact, teasing the Aggies covered as well. If you teased this game, and didn't tease it with an outside result, you were golden.

Sports Objective likes Iowa(+9.5), USC(-10.5), and Tulsa(+18). The thing is, there's been so much line movement lately that I should be going for middles at this point. The original spread was iowa(+10.5)NORTHWESTERN, but now it's down to 9.

I've teased NORTHWESTERN(-4)over iowa, over 122. It's too late to take Tulsa now...in the case of Iowa and 'SC, Accuscore predicts the opposite of SOB in both cases. Doesn't exactly give me confidence either way. SOB has burned himself betting USC in the past, so buyer beware.

Northwestern is up, 11-6, 7 minutes in. Not sure how I feel about the over right now...

I've parlayed wisconsin(-12)over INDIANA, under 124. Not because I think Wisconsin covers, but because I think their chances of covering go way up if IU has a hard time scoring. Check the scores of Wisconsin's other blowouts. This pays 2.73/1 at bodog.

Wisconsin is up, 14-10, 10:37 to go in the half...looks good for the under, but the Badgers need to score some points....

Bearish on Aggies/Gophers Boil?

Sports Objective really liked the matchups tonight, but they mostly made me nervous. Especially NOTRE DAME(+1.5)over pitt. Well, ND won, 68-53. Didn't trust ND at all, and Pitt kept winning me $$.

Anyway, I've teased BAYLOR(-1.5)over texas a&m, over 131. I think the Aggies keep this one closer than 6.5. In fact, I almost teased A&M and the over. $$ seems to be coming in on Baylor. I think more people remember that Baylor was ranked, than realize that the Aggies have now broken into the top 25. I didn't realize it until a couple of hours ago. Anyway, Baylor should be out for revenge, and it's definitely preferable to take the home teams, as much as I think the Aggs stay in this one.

I've also taken MINNESOTA(+4)over purdue. I don't really trust the Gophers here, but they lay waste to Wisconsin a couple of games ago....

Ugh. Purdue is up, 24-12. This one could get ugly. 8 minutes left in the first half, so the under looks pretty good right now.

I liked oklahoma state(+9)over TEXAS, but didn't pull the trigger. Right now this looks good as well, with the 'Horns down, 16-14.

Baylor is up, 19-11, 13:50 left in the first. I may regret teasing the over here.

Tuesday Action

So far I've bet FLORIDA(-2)over tennessee, and I've parlayed
syracuse(-9)over PROVIDENCE, under 158. If you look at Syracuses' totals, you will see that they don't give up alot of points. I think this will need to be the case for them to cover here. The parlay pays 2.81/1.

Florida opened as a 4 point favorite. If the cowards at bodog would post a line in a timely manner, I could get a middle. That's okay, because Florida will win by 9 or 10.

It's probably safe to say that Kansas State is better than Texas right now. Having said that, Sports Objective was incredulous that UT would be favored by 6 over anybody on the road, as they were last weekend vs. Texas Tech. I bring this up because right now TT is a six point dog hosting K State. This line opened at four, so in this case we can blame bettors instead of the books. Still, since I can't get a middle here, the play would seem to be
TEXAS TECH(+6)over kansas state. Bodog won't post a total, so teasing is out of the question.

SOB recommends a thread where a cat named homedawg has been making some nice picks. Another guy on there recommends uner 162 on Syr-Prov. Where the fuck did he find 162? The highest I've seen is 159. Anyway, homedawg likes rutgers(+12)over SETON HALL, and he likes the under, but since the cowards at bodog aren't posting the total for this one, I'm stuck with rutgers(+12), while I really wanted to parlay this with the under.

I have some recent bad memories involving Louisville and Georgetown which leave me less than thrilled about touching their matchup. Since the 'Ville have had their share of low scoring games when they cover, I've parlayed LOUISVILLE(-4)over georgetown, under 141. Pays 2.73/1. Now they just need to avoid a repeat of their 91-89 win vs. Notre Dame, because that would be way over, and they wouldn't cover. SOB took the Louisville moneyline, which was (-165), but is now (-180) on bodog. Fuck that.

Did I mention that I won $$ on UCONN(+3)over west virginia last night? Well I did, as UConn tooka care of business at home, winning 73-62. Right now I'm just hoping WVU finds a way to stay overrated. I feel completely dialed in on the Mountaineers, not to mention Pitt.

Miami-Virginia opened with Miami favored by 5, and has since moved to 6. I really want to tease this back down, but bodog hasn't posted a total for this one. As bad as the Cavs have done, I really don't trust the U...ironic, since you can't spell trust without u....

Well, the U won and covered, not that that did me any good, 74-62. Meanwhile the parlays didn't exactly treat me right, as Louisville lost outright (while the under covered), 70-60, and Syracuse covered 99-85, the under failing miserably.

On the other hand, Rutgers lost but covered, 76-70.

Right now it looks like the Red Raiders will lose and fail to cover, as K State leads, 64-54, with 6:42 left to play.

It's halftime of Tennessee at Florida, and it's tied, 37 all. Florida jumped out to an early lead, but given the flow of the last 10 minutes or so, I'm happy with a tie, and failing to cover by only two.

Now it's K-State, 72-59. They just showed some highlights from that one, and the Tech crowd looked completely dead. If I knew K State would not face a hostile crowd I may have bet the other way. Of course, they probably deserve credit for taking the home crowd out of the game.

Given that Northern Iowa is ranked, fading them should have been automatic. I guess I still don't have them on my radar. While they have come back to within a point, they almost certainly won't cover the 9.5 or 10 point spread.

UConn, IConn, WeConn...

West Virginia at Connecticut opened with WVU favored by one. Most places you can get UConn as a 2.5 point dog. I went ahead and paid the -120 vig for UCONN(+3)over west virginia. Sports Objective made the same pick. Next year I may just bet all the lower ranked teams whenever a ranked plays an unranked...provided that team is at home. Do a season on autopilot. Looking at other games, trying to figure out over/unders...may be too much work.

These picks may amount to half Sports Objective's picks, and they are the ones where I can predict the pick before I check....this game I even picked it before I knew what the line was...though I pretty much knew what it would be anyway.

Speaking of autopick, my intent is to bet the NBA playoffs by taking whichever team lost the previous game, since

a.) the lines tend to over-compensate

b.) teams tend to bounce back

I may even never bet game one of any series, since this system wouldn't pick these ones.

Ride the Panther(s)?

Villanova at Pittsburgh opened with 'Nova favored by one, but by gametime moved to
'Nova(-2.5) or (-3). Since Vegas could anticipate the action would move the line that way, they probably aren't averse to it. Therefore, PITT(+2.5)over 'nova.

I almost teased MICHIGAN STATE(-3.5)ohio state, but by the time I decided to tease the under (136) the game was underway. Just as well, as I am emotionally involved here. While I considered teasing the Buckeyes, I more than likely would have taken the Spartans...MSU leads, 9-4, 15:41 to go in the first half, so State and the under looks pretty good right now.

Yesterday I lost on Kentucky 58, Vanderbilt(pick) 56, won on Kent State 74 W Carolina (+8) 72, and lost on Ap State 81, Tennessee Tech(+12.5) 68...barely. Sadly enough, I'm happy going 1-2. Eight game losing streaks will do that to you.

OSU is up, 13-12. I would have teased MSU to (+1.5), but still. Pitt leads, 13-9.

Word. Sometimes less is more. I'm 1-0 today, as Pitt went on to beat Villanova, 70-65. Good thing I didn't bet OSU-MSU...Ohio State won, 74-67, so teasing the under would have failed, even if I'd had the sense to bet the Buckeyes.

Downward Spiral

Thurday's bets went 0-6 for me. I'd prefer to leave it at that, rather than reliving them. Sports Objective has researched "bracketbuster" games, and has found that road dogs have covered about 2/3 of the time in the last 3 years. He is betting on a ton of games this weekend, so many that I am not going to try to keep up. So far his $$ on road dogs has only served to extend my losing streak, as I took old dominion(+4)over NORTHERN IOWA, and
william & mary(+4)over IONA. Northern Iowa won, 71-62, and Iona won 69-53.

So far today I have VANDERBILT(pick)over kentucky,
tennessee tech(+12.5)over APPALACHIAN STATE, and
western carolina(+8)over KENT STATE. Am I worried that I will continue to lose? Yes I am.

Sports Objective has taken to giving his picks on Twitter. Makes sense, since the blizzard of college basketball games falls so persistently. Who has the time to give their thoughts on every pick?

Kentucky beat Vandy, and Ap State is about a minute from covering against Tennessee Tech. Right now W. Carolina is covering. It'd be nice to win one.

Three (or so) for Thursday

Yesterday I continued my ass-kicking ways. Here is a brief summary.

Miami led early against Duke, but eventually blew their lead, losing 81-74. Works for me, as I had Miami(+8).

I lost both of my bets on Louisville, as they failed to cover my parlay of the spread(-11) and the under(147), or my tease of them and the over (-6.5 and 142), though the total did go over, as Louisville won, 91-89.

New Mexico beat Wyoming, 83-61, covering the 20 point spread. Yay. 2-2 for me.

Missouri beat Texas, and covered the 3 point spread, 82-77, putting me at 3-2. Since I bet a bit less on my parlay, the night worked out a little bit better than this money-wise.

Tonight SOB is taking 3 home favorites, all of which I expected, since he loves to fade ranked dogs vs. unranked (or lower ranked) opponents. Sadly, I'm almost hoping for him to give me some more exotic bets, because I could have taken these ones myself. Apparently I have learned to fish, though perhaps not well enough to feed myself for a lifetime, so to speak.

Georgetown-Syracuse opened at Georgetown by one. It has moved to 1.5 or 2, but I paid the vig to get it back down to one. GEORGETOWN(-1)over syracuse. This pains me a little bit, as 'Cuse is probably my favorite school that I didn't attend. Furthermore, Georgetown is a bit inconsistent, and Syracuse just may have what it takes to pull off some Big East road wins and claim a top seed. I'm a little surprised the line moved against them, but the Hoyas are a pretty public team as well, thogh I suspect sharp $$ moved this line.

I've also taken OLE MISS(-3)over vanderbilt. This one troubles me a little bit as well, but the public knows Vandy is having a good year and will be on them, so of course the play is the other way.

I was a little surprised that Marquette was favored by 6.5 over Pittsburgh, and those big numbers make me nervous when two good teams are playing, so I've teased
MARQUETTE(-1.5)over pitt, over 128. Not sure why the total is as low as it is here. Usually when I'm puzzled like this the line goes way over...or way under.

I'm considering taking Wisconsin on the road at Minnesota. My read on these teams is probably exaggerated based on Michigan State's results against these teams, so I'm still thinking about it.

I've taken wisconsin(-1)over MINNESOTA. This totally goes against my policy regarding home favorites, but maybe this is the exception that proves the rule. Wisconsin is #3 in the Pomeroy Ratings, while Minnesota is #44. Is 41 spots enough to justify an 8 point gap?

Georgetown is getting killed right now. Of course they are.

I'm taking cal(-6)over OREGON STATE. I want to tease this down to 2, or 1.5, but Cal games are so high scoring, and Oregon State's are so low scoring, I feel like this total could be really tough to pick. On second thought...I think I'll try a tease and a parlay. cal(-6), over 132, (the parlay), and cal(-1), under 137 (the tease). I figure I have a good chance of winning one of these, and a slight chance of winning both, though my bets on Kentucky-Mississippi State were lucky to break even.

Georgetown made a furious comeback, but ultimately lost, 75-71. Ole Miss blew their early lead, and fell to Vandy, 82-78. So I'm 0-2 so far tonight.

Marquette is up 8-4 on Pitt, with 13:55 to go in the 1st half. If this keeps up I'm going to wish I'd teased the under, instead of the over. I need another 117 points.

Wisconsin had an early lead, but now trail Minnesota, 14-8. Shit.

Return of SOB?

I've taken MIAMI(+7.5)over duke. Duke's road record vs. the spread of late is atrocious, so I'll take my chances.

I've finally looked closely enough at Sports Objective to figure out that his picks are on his twitter page. Though I've done pretty well without him of late. He's taken LOUISVILLE(-11.5)over notre dame. I've made two bets on teh Cardnails. I've parlayed LOUISVILLE(-11.5), under 147. Like the State-Indiana game last night, I figure chances are good if Louisville covers that ND doesn't keep up their end. Since I don't have a strong feeling about the total, and since the Big East teams tend to score in bushels, I've teased LOUISVILLE(-6.5), over 142. While I've compared this game to State-Indiana, SOB compared this game to Baylor-Texas Tech. Of course, we're both comparing to games we won.

Right now Miami is kicking ass, 18-12. Unfortunately, Louisville & ND are knotted at 18 all.

SOB likes MISSOURI(-2.5)over texas. Does he like MISSOURI(-3)? (-3.5)? Because that's what it's moved to. I'm thinking about teasing Missou and the over.

SOB likes NEW MEXICO(-21)over wyoming. Accuscore predicts an average of 85-61. The line is down to 20. I'll take it--NEW MEXICO(-20)over wyoming.

Accuscore also predicts Missouri 80-75 over Texas...I've taken MISSOURI(-3)over texas. Right now my other picks are going against me, and I thought about sitting this one out, but I had this game in mind before I saw SOB's pick. On the other hand, I also got the OSU-Purdue line right--I figured 3 or 3.5, it opened at 3, moved to 3.5 or 4...and Purdue kicked the crap out of the Buckeyes. Glad it started at 6:30 EST, so I missed the start.

Oh yeah--the late games last night--North Carolina came through as expected, losing to Georgia Tech, 68-51. Nice. When will Vegas adjust? The Heels suck this year.

Kentucky won in OT, and covered 81-75, so I won my bet on them. I lost my parlay of Mississippi State and the under. Good thing UK covered, because the under was definitely out of play by the end. The teased under was 144. This would have been good at the end of regulation. Too bad nobody had a lead then. I would have won more if the parlay had come in.

Last minute wagers...

The Tuesday night games are underway, and whaddya know? I've made 3 bets on the early games. SOUTH FLORIDA(-3)over cincinnati. Check Cincy's road record lately. They drop way off on the road vs. Big East competition. I have no read on the o/u (130) for this game, but based on recent trends I like USF to win by 8 or 10.

I've been big on fading Michigan State this year, and I sorta like Indiana to cover against the underachieving Spartans...in fact, if it wasn't too late, I might bet INDIANA(+11.5)over state...having perused these teams' previous scores, I like michigan state(-11.5), under 139 in a parlay. Basically I think State will either undrachieve and win by 6 or 7, or they'll blow the Hoosiers out. In a blowout I think Indiana doesn't score enough points for the over. I'd consider parlaying it the other way (Indiana and the over), but I don't think a close game is any guarantee of a high score. I don't think a blowout is a guarantee of an under either, but i like the chances.

I've teased VIRGINIA TECH(-.5)over wake forest, over 134. I did this at the last minute without really analyzing these teams' totals, but these ACC teams tend to push each other to some pretty high scores in close games, and I think this one will be pretty close. The fact that this line opened at 5, and moved to 5.5 has me a little concerned. You'd think Wake would be one of those public teams that would get some action as a dog. I think Vegas thought that too, even if they were wrong about public sentiment.

Right now all my teams are losing, except MSU, who are tied, 12-12, 13:31 left in the first half. I'll check in later to bet some more.

Bodog refuses to post a o/u for UNC-GT, so I've taken
GEORGIA TECH(-6)over north carolina. If they ever post a total I may tease Tech and the over. I'm still considering kentucky(-3.5)over MISSISSIPPI STATE, or vice versa. You don't get rich betting on the top teams. Following this logic (sort of) I won last night with
TEXAS A&M(+7)over kansas, as Kansas won by 5, but failed to cover, 59-54. I feel alot safer getting 7 than getting 3 though. And Kentucky just beat Tennessee 73-62...as I recall, the line was 9.

I've parlayed MISSISSIPPI STATE(+4), under 144. My reasoning is that Mississippi State needs their big men on defense to slow Kentucky down to stay in this game, so relative success on their part will tend to mean a lower scoring game. If you check Kentucky's totals you'll see what I mean....In fact, I may just hedge, and take the Wildcats too.

I've taken kentucky(+3)over MISSISSIPPI STATE. I will win more if my State parlay comes through, since that pays like 2.58/1, but this way I break even otherwise...unless MSU covers in a high scoring game.

South Florida is closing out a win and cover, barring some freak run by the Bearcats. USF leads, 59-45, 1:10 to go.

Va Tech has come back to take the lead vs. Wake, and is actually covering at the moment,
80-74. 2:28 to go though, so plenty of time in that one.

I thought State would have to hold IU's points down to cover the spread, and that is what they did, beating Indiana 72-58. 130 was reasonably safely under the 139 o/u. This parlay paid off at 2.73/1.

USF won and covered, 65-57. Cincy continued their losing ways on the road, as I expected.

Virginia Tech leads, 86-83, :17 to go. Not good enough. Pity I didn't tease either one of these teams and the over...or just bet the over, for that matter.

Tech won, 87-83. Way to tease me by getting closer to the line. Can't win them all.

Or can I? Wake getting up early led me to forget that I did tease the over! Tech only needed to win by one to cover...and the teams needed to score more than 134. 170 ought to do the trick.

Georgia Tech leads North Carolina, 14-9. Bodog never did post an o/u. Mississippi State is up 12-10 at the moment. Hopefully my night bets do well enough to not completely undo my hard work earlier.

The Kansas at Texas A&M game line opened at kansas(-7.5)TEXAS A&M. The line has dropped to 6.5 on most sites, with bodog lagging behind at 7. I figure this almost has to be sharp $$, and I'm wondering if public $$ will bring the line back up...um...probably not, since gametime is in 15 minutes. I've taken TEXAS A&M(+7)over kansas. I'm considering a couple possible teases and parlays, but I will probably hold tight. I like teasing Kansas and the over, or A&M & the under.

Gophers flogged by 'Cats / Trojan night?

I won my NORTHWESTERN(pick)over minnesota bet, as the Wildcats won, 77-74. When I bet, some sites had moved to minnesota(-1), as I expected, but by gametime the line had moved back to a pick on most sites, except for a few that had NORTHWESTERN(-1), including bodog. So apparently the $$ that came in agreed with me. I'm a little surprised by this, as I thought the Gophers would get a bit more respect than they deserved.

I've made two bets on the UCLA-USC game. In Chad Millman's blog, Alan Boston recommended USC in this game, though he made no mention of the 7 point spread. I've parlayed
USC(-7), under 119, and I've teased USC(-2), over 114. These bets hedge each other a bit. I figure that the Trojan defense gives them the best chance to cover the spread in a low scoring game. Checking their results, however, I've found that most of their games are higher scoring than the 119 total, so with my tease I've gone the other way. I figure I'll cover one or the other, unless UCLA wins outright. The Bruins were trounced at home the last time these two played. This makes me a little concerned that UCLA will play a bit over their heads to split the series, and I'm not sure how big the home court andvantage will be for USC, given that these two teams play in the same city.

Alan Boston was also completely wrong on his other pick today, as Syracuse was upset by Louisville, though he was right to guess that the game could be low scoring. The 66-60 final score was well under the o/u of 148. Having read Millman's book "The Odds," where Boston was one of the main characters, I have the impression that he tends to run hot-cold, though he tends to bet so many games that he could be doing great overall, yet lose both of these, or vice versa.

Fade Gophers, Fade!

I'm taking NORTHWESTERN(pick)over minnesota. This seems like the sort of line made with the expectation that by game time $$ will pour in on the Gophers, and Vegas wants to keep this $$. Minnesota is the kind of team that will reliably dissappoint, esp. on the road.

Speaking of the road, I'm off to Austin, in my (for one more day) Bitchin' Camero.

Camero? Bitchin'.

I've missed a day or so of betting college basketball, and a $372 win playing $1-2 no limit would seem to justify my absence from the hoops scene. My black rental Camero was smokin'...or still is, rather. I liked it enough that two more days of renting it is setting me back most of my poker winnings. Add a ticket or two to that, and I'd be in the red. It feels near-miraculous that I'm ticket free in the beast.

I've always considered taking sides in Chevy vs. Ford shouting matches to be exercises in moronism, and the fact that Dodge and Pontiac occasionally get thrown in to these debates only serves to underline the neanderthal appeal of these brands, but at the moment I'm pretty bullish on the '10 Camero. Of course, I haven't worked my way into a position where I can actually compare the car to the equivalent Mustangs or Challengers,* so there is really no reason to listen to me. On the other hand, while the fact that I'm willing to run my yap about it is unremarkable, I am tearing myself away from running my yap about poker and sports gambling, to give my unsolicited opinion, whatever that's worth.

I've always respected the opinions of those who have a preference for a given truck if they use their trucks for work. While Dodge seems to generally keep the lead when it comes to macho posturing, farmers and construction workers always seem to go for Fords. Similarly, I've found that mechanics tend to favor GM products, because the parts tend to be more readily available, and hence cheaper. In the end, practicality reigns over other concerns.

Well, practicallity needs to be put to one side to discuss this car. I love the engine, I love the comfort of the drivers seat, and I love the styling. In another year or two, the styling may take a hit, as more and more of these cars hit the streets. The fact that you see so many Mustangs around (even in Cuba and Korea) is probably the main reason I am down on that model of late, along with the inadequate back seats--of course, Camero back seats are hardly a selling point...nor the Challengers,' which are smaller than my apparently inaccurate memory.

Oh yeah. And the aforementioned macho posturing from Ford enthusiasts. Since GM became the automotive arm of the Obama regime, the barbaric yawp of Chevy owners has become muted, to say the least. I'll get back to this later.

I forgot to mention the handling. At first the car seemed a bit bulky, but it seems to feel lighter at higher speeds. At this point it seems to handle pretty well to me, though I must confess to previously owning an '83 Caprice Classic, and currently owning an '05 Impala, so I'm used to cars not known for their handling.

(Lest you believe I've outed myself as a Chevy enthusiast posturing as a neutral, let me say that I found the Caprice in the classifieds, and I chose the Impala over a Crown Vic because I was concerned that my wife wouldn't be able to see over the dash in the larger squad car. Though I must admit, the main thing deterring me from going for another Caprice was the daunting task of finding one with under 200,000 miles on it.)

The 3.6 liter V6 is capable of 304 horsepower, though the RPMs required for that sort of output pretty much requires you to be doing something illegal, and so egregiously that your chances of getting caught ought to be a concern. The 'Stang V6 puts out more like 210 or so, so the car that put the pony in ponycar had better be nimble indeed to make up for this power deficit. If I remember right, the bottom end Challenger puts out 250 or so, which will probably force all but the most environmentally concerned of us to move up to the 5.7 liter V8.** That car and the 6.2 liter beast are a bit too pricey for cheap bastards like myself though.

I'm always amused by how much emphasis car magazines place on handling, as if we all take our cars to the race track, and commute to work along twisty mountain roads. Maybe someday I'll blow a couple grand on BMW's driving school, but until then I probably won't quite see how all this superior handling translates to everyday commutes. Unlike accelerating around the asshole hogging the left lane, as the guy you cut off gives you the finger...or flooring it at a light, narrowly missing the pedestrian who attempted an ill-advised last second dash through the crosswalk...speaking of which...

I'm not too impressed with the bottom-end torque or the takeoff. The thing seems to accelerate faster at 40mph...or 60, or 80... On the other hand, you don't want the tires to squeal every time you take off. Sure it might sound like fun, but eventually it becomes tedious at best, obnoxious at worst. Sort of like the automotive equivalent to a Lily Thai scene. Not that Jettas squeal every time you punch the accelerator; I'm just sayin.'

The way I remember it, my mom's '01 Jetta felt quicker off the line, though this may have been relative to my expectations. Speaking of expectations, my impression of the 3.6 liter V6 has probably been influenced my all the reviews gushing about how great it is. In the end, this is the sort of thing that could get me into a CTS Caddy, it having the same engine and what not...and back seats.

These days buying a car has political implications, especially with the aforementioned government takeover of 2/3 of the domestic auto industry. One may consider that a Honda manufactured in Ohio or a Mercedes made in Alabama does more for the economy +/or American workers than a Chevy made in Canada, or a Ford made in Mexico. Those opposed to socialism may avoid GM out of principle. On the other hand, supporting domestic manufacturers may lessen their dependance on taxpayer subsidies, or eliminate their need for them altogether. If the rumor I heard was true, that GM is now profitable, and may soon buy itself back from the government, then buying a Camaro may be the most patriotic act I can imagine, given that I'd rather not go out like Pat Tillman. Or it could just mark me as another sucker, voting with my wallet for the losing side.

Since the Ford family owns the Lions, this would also be an oppertune time to buy a Ford product, given that next year's NFL season will be uncapped, opening up less competative teams to broadsides from big spenders like the Redskins and Cowboys.

Either way, I'm not in the market for another car right now, since I'm headed to Germany in the near future, where the mass transit grows on trees, so to speak. I suppose buying an American car on the tail end of my tour there, rather than shipping back an Audi or BMW would be even more patriotic than buying one now, though still less patriotic than Pat Tillman. Maybe five years from now GM won't exist. Or maybe the socialists will drive Ford out of business. Maybe the Lions will be in Los Angeles. Who knows? By that time my kid will be too big to fit in the back seat of any of these ponycars, and I'll be popping Geritol and extenZe like I'm Jimmy Johnson on a road trip to Tampa in his Depends...at least Jimmy doesn't need hair plugs.*** At least I'll have memories of a weekend back in 2010 with my black Camaro.

As a handicapper, I suppose I'm inherently a contrarian, since nobody ever got rich betting on favorites. It's the contrarian in me that makes me want to stick up for Audi vs. BMW, Hyundi vs. Honda, or Chevy vs. Ford. It's the horse trader in me that hopefully fine tunes my instincts to know when something is overbought, or oversold. It's not so much that this car is better than that car, so much as this car is better for the money. Ultimately it's about value. Like the value that PITT(+3)over west virginia represented Friday night. I'd segue the rest of the way into a review of my recent picks, but the fact that my other teams didn't cover makes it hard for me to give relevant recent examples.

*I rented a '01 Mustang back in...'01, and I found the V6 spirited, much beyond my expectation as a V8 snob. Of course nine years renders the comparison obsolete. I rented a Dodge Charger in '08 as well, though the lower end engines that you get from rental places was unimpressive enough that I don't think it makes the muscle car discussion. Nice back seats tho.'

**Coincidentally, I was eyeballing a couple of Challengers at the Chevy dealership (of all places) that is fixing my Impala's transmission, and the cars had some sort of environmental rating sticker on them. According to the sticker, the 5.7 liter V8 is twice as good for the environment as the V6 (a 4 out of 10 rather than a 2) despite the inferior gas mileage. Something to consider when Toyota recalls your Prius. For the sake of thoroughness, I really ought to see what the environmental rating is for the 6.1 liter when I go pick up my Impala. Chrysler's got to love whatever law requires them to out themselves this way.

***NASCAR Jimmy Johnson ought to sue ex-football coach Jimmy Johnson for wearing NASCAR duds in those extenZe ads on late night cable. You know Dale Jr. & Tony Stewart are cracking wise about it whenever they see him.

The only game in town

After the travesty that was last nights bets, Friday's light slate of games represents a good time to take a break. Other than trying to figure out the margin by which Cornell will trounce their latest Ivy opponent (cornell(17.5)PENN), the only game of interest is
West Virginia at Pittsburgh. WVU is still a top 10 team, so while Pittsburgh is ranked, Vegas has to expect $$ to come in on the Mountaineers, aside from some bettors who have been hibernating since last March that may recall that last year Pitt was a top seed...of course, so was UNC.

Therefore, the books have to favor West Virginia, knowing that public $$ will head that way, and they have. WVU opened as a 1.5 point road favorite, and the line is up to 2.5 everywhere...aside from the ones who haven't posted yet, like the cowards at bodog, for instance.

The thing is, it's 10:00 a.m. EST, and Joe Public is at work right now, so the point move would seem to be from sharp $$. Are the sharps going for a middle, or do they really like WVU? I say they're going for a middle whether they like them or not, since the public will definitely go for the Mountaineers. Of course, until I open up a couple more accounts, middles are not really an option for me.

Speaking of cowards, as long as I'm calling out bodog every so often, it's only fair to put the others up on the wall of shame, so here they are:

Legends.com--according to their site, "The Most Respected Sportsbook"--not in my book...
SPORTSBETTING.com--"NCAA Basketball--Bet it now!"--Now? How about now? Now?
BetJamaica.com--"The Player's Paradise"--, (they must mean the weather--love that virtual sunshine!...and of course
bodoglife.com

These are all from covers.com. Their four listed casino sportsbooks haven't posted a line yet either so we ought to shame them as well.

LV Hilton
Mirage
Hard Rock, and
Planet Hollywood.

It's 10:37, and the Hilton has their opening lines, as do Legends and BetJamaica. That leaves the other casinos, along with SPORTSBETTING and bodog as the remaining holdouts.

SPORTSBETTING--"NCAA Basketball--Bet it now!" Now?......Now?...............Now?

I say bodog will be the last cowards standing. Many of the books have the WVU line at 3 now...yep, I definitely won't be going for a middle on that one.

10:53, and Planet Hollywood has posted their lines.

In the Hard Rock's defense, the wasteoids who frequent that place won't be awake this early, unless they've been partying all night, of course. I also enjoyed playing NL Hold-'Em there, due to the aforementioned wasteoids, and to what they called the "Hard Rock Straddle," which apparently is the same thing as a Mississippi Straddle...

No. A Mississippi straddle is a straddle done from any position other than under the gun, while a "Hard Rock Straddle" was done only from the button. Restrictions can be placed on Mississippi straddles in a given game, so a Hard Rock Straddle would be considered a type of Mississippi straddle, but not the only kind. Of course, naming the straddle after the casino is an excercise in shameless promotion, but I'm all about the home field advantage, so what the heck. Here is a most flattering review of their poker room, which is pretty accurate, though I didn't really appreciate it at the time. I was there because I'd heard the joint was teaming with suckers. Perhaps it is alot of the time, but this was a Sunday night, and there were only two tables going. I came out the next morning up 2 or 3 hundered, but the night before I'd won almost $1200 at the Palms, so I was inherently a bit critical, relative to that. The Palms' room is uber-tacky though, whether you compare it to the Hard Rock or not.

It's 11:21 EST. Bodog is the only site or casino listed on covers.com that have not posted any lines. The Mirage & Hard Rock are in the middle of posting theirs.

I've taken PITTSBURGH(+3)over west virginia. I would like to tease this game to get more points, but I've rented a Camero with about 90 miles on it, and I need to drive that thing, so I may be going to a casino, or at least to Austin. Either way, I may not be able to wait for the cowards at bodog to post the over/under, so I've made a move.

I've also teased PRINCETON(-8.5)over columbia, over 103, and
cornell(-12.5)over PENN, over 131. Cornell is ranked, and they and Princeton are both ranked in Chad Millman's sweat barometer, whatever that's worth. Personally, I think too much success vs. the spread will only lead to less favorable spreads, so...

I've teased PITT(+7.5), over 124.5. And I'm off to the casino...in a black Camaro. Word.

160? 160?!?????

I've taken the under in Notre Dame(+5) at Seton Hall. Under 160. Both teams have had a couple of high scoring games, but I still see no reason the number should be this high. After I eat some crab cakes (since my wife has interrupted me with such mundane considerations) I will scour the lines for more bargains.

I've teased louisville(-1)over ST JOHNS, over 135. The number went from 139 to 140 while I was thinking about it, so I'm not the only one who likes the over here. This could be a letdown game for the Cardnails, who have Syracuse coming up on Sunday, but I still like them giving one, instead of 6.

The weasels at bodog have only posted totals for three 7:00 games tonight, the other being Michigan(+8.5) at Minnesota. Michigan sucks, but they are much better vs. the spread of late than the Gophers. The number (130) seems about right to me, settling in between Minnesota's games in the 130-150 range, and Michigan's defensive struggles.

Washington seems to be about as night & day as anybody I've seen, winning most of the time at home, but losing on the road. The Huskies are on the road at Cal tonight. I trust Washington...to lose. I've teased CAL(-1), under 162. Since Cal games have been consistently going under, and 15 of Washington's last 21 have gone over, I'm guessing that a lower scoring game favors Cal. That's why I'm also parlaying CAL(-5), under 158. This combo of bets worked last night for Duke vs. UNC, so what the heck.

The other thing to do would be to parlay Washigton on the moneyline with the over, the inverse side of the reasoning for my other parlay. Cal and the under pays 2.65/1. The Wash moneyline parlayed with the over pays 4.23 to one.

Louisville trails St. John's, 33-25, about a minute into the 2nd half. Even if Louisville comes back, the over doesn't look too promising.

On the other hand, Seton Hall is up, 57-47 on Notre Dame, with 16:50 to go, so the over looks increasingly likely here...where I bet the under. While I don't like Washington to win on the road, I think I'll parlay washington(+180), over 158, as a hedge. I don't much trust my judgement at the moment, so I suppose you shouldn't either.

Apparently Seton Hall & ND were both in the 30's with less than 2 to go in the 1st half, so I'm not sure what induced their scoring spree. This makes their shootout that much harder to take. Fuck.

Handicapping Zombie?

Sports Objective finally picked up a win, aftetr a recent skid, taking
MIAMI(+1)over georgia tech. By the time I took the game, Miami was favored by 1.5. I paid some more vig to get the line down to MIAMI(-1)over georgia tech. The U came through,
64-62, so I guess I didn't need to get it down to one. On the other hand, I feel justified in paying the vig in this, given how close the score came to the number, and how close the number was to zero.

Meanwhile, I've made two bets on the hated Duke Blue Devils and the under against North Carolina. I've parlayed duke(-6), under 155, and I've teased duke(-1), under 159. While I expect this game to be fairly high scoring, due to the rivalry, if not for the abilities of the teams in question, but 155 to 159 seems to be on the high end of what we can expect from these teams. UNC has taken a spectacular dive from last years pinnacle, so I suppose I'm counting on the Heels to hit a cold streak and get behind by a comfortable margin, keeping the total down.

Oh yeah. the over came in on State-Purdue, the 76-64 final score just edging the 139. Yay. I feel like I can be objective about totals in Michigan State's games, even if my biases screw with me on the spreads. Worked out this time, if barely. The sad part is that If I'd teased this game the over and the under both would have worked, but I will screw up the line, unless I just start fading State every time. They are awful vs. the spread this year.

Right now it is 20-20, 6:54 to go in the first half. The Tar Heels need to back the fuck off.

I've also taken baylor(-3)over NEBRASKA. I don't like to make a habit of taking road favorites...on the other hand, Baylor beat Texas as a road dog a week and a half ago. I suppose living halfway between Austin and Waco may be magnifying certain results in my mind.

Egad. Nebraska is up 27-23 at halftime. Plenty of time left, but usually in games like this the favorite barely catches up, if they do at all. At least 3 is close enough that a couple of possessions could swing it.

Duke is up, 28-27 at the half. Good for a push and a loss. The under looks golden though.

I've been late with my posts lately, in part because I generally can't check the lines until just before the games, and because I've been watching season one of dollhouse. I watch human husks get filled and emptied, while I gain picks from Sports Objective. Will I gain enough handicapping enlightenment to evolve into a self sufficient sharp? Or will I slowly devolve into a gambling zombie?

Ugh. Baylor won, but didn't cover, 55-53. On the other hand, Duke won my tease and my parlay, 64-54. The over never came close. The sad part is, before I decided to tease & parlay the under, I was toying with the over. My theory that the ultra competitive games tend to be higher scoring took a hit, as Duke & Carolina scored a whopping 118 points.

Taking favorites is no way to go through life. Tonight I've been whistling past the graveyard with the favs. Tommorow the wheels could come off.

State doesn't cover much--Can they score?

Ugh. I've lost on WEST VIRGINIA(-4.5)over villanova and WISCONSIN(-9)over illinois in the last two days. I've just taken OVER 139 on MICHIGAN STATE(-3)purdue. Teasing Illinois and the under in order to give myself a cushion where State could lose but fail to cover on the weekend proved an ill-advised bet where my Spartan alum emotions get involved. Both of these teams have difficulties covering of late, and I'm unlikely to bet State without teasing myself 4 or 5 points...taking the over here is probably reactionary backwash from the State-Illinois tilt, but what the heck. While 6 of 10 of these teams last games have gone under, the more competitive games against better opponents seem to total higher.

At least that's what I've told myself for the last 30 min or so leading up to the game, which is knotted at 13 all, 13:16 to go in the first half...the under looks pretty good right now, though football games tend to start out slow, and I think the same is true for hoops.

Considering Tom Izzo's ability to gameplan for an opponent, and State's ability to totally take an opponent out of their game, it may behoove me to avoid totals bets on the Spartans...unless I decide that I can get into Izzo's head.

20-17, 10:21 to go in the 1st half. The over looks better now.

SB Props Link to My Sharp Rabbai

Here are my Super Bowl prop bets, along with a link to SOB, where I shared them before my computer went kaput.

Manning -110 for MVP? You Better ‘Effin Believe it!!! Sports Objective:

"Thanks–Here they are, not that you asked….
Carrie Underwood OVER 1:42(-135)
Kim K. sightings OVER 2.5 (-170)
Hurricaine K. mentionings OVER 2.5 (-250)
Dow drops, Colts win (9/4)
Dow Drops, Saints win (15/4)

Jobs report out Monday doesn’t look good for Dow…

I watched about 8 Nat’ Anthems to pick the OVER…Ms. U went 1:40 before a Panthers-Seahawks game without background music–the last two have gone over with bkgrd music–pretty sure this one will have it too.

The Kim K. and Hurricaine odds have gotten worse in the last couple hours. Good luck.

Oh yeah, both teams won’t kick over a 33 yd field goal,–(-180) This only hits about 25% of the time.

If I’m wrong I’ll lose back what I won on G’town, Richmond, UNLV, and Wisconsin yesterday. In other words, thanks."

I left out my cover on the Kansas/Nebraska over, and my loss on my MSU tease. Brevity is the soul of wit. So I must be witless. Or my wit must be soulless.

Oh yeah, I took Garcon for MVP--tiny bet tho.'

Wise Hedge? Aborted Post

Regardless of the outcome of Super Bowl XLIV (44 for you non-Romans), I feel somewhat vindicated by Chad Millman's intel that the wiseguys are taking the Colts moneyline (-190 right now on bodog.com, but recently better according to him) and hedging their bets by taking the Saints vs. the spread. This was one of the strategies I was considering for Saints-Vikings two weeks ago, though I was talking about taking the Vikes moneyline and the Saints vs. the spread, which would have ended disasterously for me, as I would have lost both bets. The thing is, I'm trying to figure out why you couldn't employ this strategy in any game where one team is favored by 6 or 7. Other than the moneyline is not as generous, but I'd think you could adjust your wagers to cover that.

Garbage. I've been writing all day, until my computer shut downon me due to some virus or something. I'd been reserching prop bets, betting them, and writing about it all day. Luckily, I sent a summary to Sports Objective. Since I don't know how to cut and paste in blogger, its in my next post.

Late Afternoon Degeneracy

After pondering the wisdom of messing with nebraska(+21)at KANSAS, I've taken the
OVER 133. Kansas can get 80 on their own. Not so sure the 'Huskers will keep up their end. Meanwhile, in what may prove to be a scheduling miscalculation for my afternoon gambling fix, I've parlayed south carolina(+9)over TENNESSEE, OLE MISS(-7)over alabama, KANSAS(-21)over nebraska, and CORNELL(-24.5)over brown. Why a miscalculation? Because the first 3 games all started at 6:00 EST, while Cornell doesn't start until 7:30. Since I don't do alot of parlays, I forgot that it is customary to parlay games that are going on simoultaneously, since this is more entertaining. Chances are I will have lost by the time the Cornell game starts anyway...this is the way to get my odds up into the 12:1 range.

Why these impulsive wagers, you ask? Well, I've gone 4-1 so far today, and since this included a parlay that paid at 2.5/1, I effectively went 5.5/1 today...so far. Earlier I recounted my wagers in the order in which I made them, but now I'll go back through them in the order of the games.

GEORGETOWN(+3)over villanova, over 145--Georgetown raced to a 20 point lead on their way to a 103-90 win over #2 'Nova. The total was never really in doubt either, as the teams compiled a whopping 193 points.

RICHMOND(-1)over temple, over 114--I liked these numbers enough to go for a parlay instead of a tease. The Spiders made me look like a genius, and the total of 125 was enough.

wisconsin(pick)over MICHIGAN--the Badgers recent domination of Michigan State was fresh enough in my mind to make me confident of this outcome--Wisconsin easily, 62-44.

UNLV(-1)over byu--a spiritual victory as well as a monetary one, as the gamblers handled the 10th ranked Mormons, 88-74.

MEMPHIS(-0.5)over gonzaga, over 140--my only blemish, so far. 'Zags won, and the under came in 66-58, for a total of only 124.

My pick of Kansas-Nebraska over 133 may need some help. With 14:00 to go, Nebraska is up, 44-43. 47 points more and the over comes in. 2/3 of the way through, I've got a shot, which is more than I can say about my ill-advised parlay. Right now South Carolina trails 47-24, Kansas is 20 points from covering (they're up 45-44 now), Ole Miss trails 52-39, and even Cornell trails, 20-16. The nice part is I risked very little of my $$ on this bet, and of course, winning 3 out of 4 would hurt alot more than blowing the whole thing.

I'm probably not taking ILLINOIS(+2)over michigan state, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't. Accuscore has MSU winning 52% of their simulations. They also have Kalin Lucas scoring about 11.5 points on average. Have they factored in that he might not play, or may be ineffective if he does? Computer simulations are only as good as the information you feed the computer. Garbage in, garbage out. The Spartans have failed horribly vs. the spread lately (1-5 ATS in their last 6) even before they started getting injured.

This might be a good time to turn my attention to Super Bowl props. So far I've only taken "Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more?" No--(-210) My intel says that this only happens about 1/4 of the time.

I've taken New Orleans(+6)over Indianapolis. The line dipped to 5 on bodog yesterday, possibly due to Dwight Freeny's bum ankle, but is now working its way back up.

Nebraska and Kansas are inching their way towards the over 56-46. Unfortunately, the clock isn't inching enough for my taste--7:47 to go.

I've teased ILLINOIS(+7)over michigan state, under 143. The total seems completely reasonable, but I've teased the line and the under 5 points each to lessen my guilt over betting against MSU. I suspect the Spartans will lose outright, but this way I don't have to root for it. As long as Lucas is out, or at least slowed down, it seems to make more sense to lean under than over. I know nothing about MSU's backup.

They've just announced Kalin Lucas won't play tonight. Do I feel vindicated? Maybe in another 40 minutes of game time.

1:22 to go in Kansas-Nebraska, and the Jayhawks lead, 71-61, for 132 total. I'm a basket away from covering the over....

Just enough of a lead for Kansas to not bother scoring. On the other hand, Nebraska will have to foul to have a chance, so I see a couple of free throws in my future.

Apparently one of them happened--72-61. Still 1:22 to go.

It's over, and the over is in--75-64. 139 is more than 133--I swear.

12:00 to go and Illinois leads, 53-52. These teans need to stop scoring so the under can come in. Other than that, this is perfect for my bet.

State just drained another 3. 55-53. Go Green, but fuck! Slow the fuck down already. These teams were content to trade missed shots and rebounds at the end of the first half. Hopefully that will happen again.

Something tells me State will end up winning by one, though I think Illinois is playing a little better overall. I'm trying to think of another team who has been so bad vs. the spread, but has continued to win...with relatively tight spreads, that is. Otherwise I might say the Pats down the streach in '07. State has been crap against the line all year, though.

8:42 to go and the Illini are up 59-57.

64-57--7:17 to go. Illinois should really think about stalling now. They can stop dunking to end fast breaks any time as well.

3:55, State trails, 66-63. Can the Spartans pull this out without the two teams scoring another 12 points? If I'd teased the over I'd only need 5 more points right now. Money in the bank.

State lost, the under lost, I lost, 78-75.

Hmm. I was about to bet the over for Kim Kardashian sightings and mentions of Hurricane Katrina, but it looks like they are resetting the odds right now on all the props other than the coin toss. Apparently the coin toss action isn't one-sided enough to warrant resetting the lines. Get on it, people. I might have to preview some more college hoops. For Super Bowl Sunday. Feels sacreligious....Nothing posted yet. Hmm.

Ivy loss, Pac 10 win, Saturday picks

I haven't found a use for this link yet, though I may mail it to some of my politico associates at some point. Leaving the window open may be one of the things slowing down my computer, so it has to go.

SportsObjective picked yale(+21.5)over CORNELL on Friday. I couldn't help tweaking his pick, and took yale(+21.5),under 140. Yale covered, losing 90-71, leaving the under high and dry. My teases have won me a couple of bets SOB lost, so I figure I was due to lose a teaser that I would have won.

On the other hand, with no guidance from Sports Objective, I teased arizona(+14), over 148 on Thursday. The Wildcats came through, losing but covering at Washington, 81-75, so I would have won without the tease as well. I'm a bit surprised SOB missed this one, since he recommended the 'Cats against Cal last week, and they came through there as well.

SOB has just posted his early Saturday picks. While he's only talking about Wisconsin at Michigan, his remarks regarding the Wolverines are link-worthy, at least for green bleeding Spartan alums like myself. Of course, I do have a soft spot for Michigan hoops since my cousin was on the '89 NCAA Champion team, though the collective arrogance of the Fab 5/4 helped me recover my hatred for the Wolverines. (It probably doesn't help my case that I still have a soft spot for Jalen Rose, not to be mistaken for a man-crush, mind you...good to see him on ESPN these days....Where was I?)

Anyway, his Wisconsin at Michigan paragraph ends with "basically, Michigan sucks." His words, not mine. The fact that the Badgers just housed Michgan State probably has me respecting them a little too much, but what the heck. Both these teams tend to have low scoring games, and the total is around 116, but bodog is having techincal difficulties that are preventing me from checking recent totals for these teams, so I'm not teasing this one.
wisconsin(pick)over MICHIGAN. Michigan opened as a point favorite, but some places they are already a point dog. Am I getting a bargain? Maybe.

SOB is taking RICHMOND(-1)over temple. I'm intrigued by the total of 114, basically because I haven't found much data to support a total this low. I like the over enough that rather than tease it, I'm going to parlay it--RICHMOND(-1.5) over 114. Or am I? The line has moved...back to one. Good. RICHMOND(-1) over 114.

SOB has taken UNLV(-1)over byu, and I am following suit. I don't know if there's a rule that teases make the most sense when they drop a line to one or even, as teasing a football line from 6 0r 7 down to even or one does, but I am avoiding teases in these games with tight lines due to that sort of reasoning.

While not going so far as to recommend GEORGETOWN(-1.5)over villanova, SOB has expressed interest in this one, and I was eyeing it before his blog posted, so give me the #8 Hoyas over the #2 Wildcats, or whatever generic mascot 'Nova has. Crap. The line moved to two. Lets make that a tease. GEORGETOWN(+3) over 145. These teams score enough that the times the total goes under is when the over is 166 or 167.

SOB likes to bet unranked home favorites over ranked road dogs, but still feels iffy about MEMPHIS(-5)over gonzaga. I almost always feel iffy, and these teams score bucketloads of points...and Memphis is a long road trip from Spokane, or wherever the Bulldogs hang their hats, so...MEMPHIS(-0.5) over 140.

Homerism hedged

I've taken the OVER(116) for Air Force at San Diego State. A review of their recent totals leaves me wondering how this o/u can be this low. On the other hand, Air Force is an 18 point dog, and blowouts do seem to be less likely to go over...at least in football. The nearest thing handy may indicate this...or not. See for yourself.

I've also taken michigan state(+6), under 131. Since this is a homer pick, and since State has been horrible vs. the spread, I've also teased it the other way, with
WISCONSIN(+2), under 131. Since State games have been mostly higher than the total, and Wisconsin games have gone under, it may have made more sense to tease State(+6)over 123, but since the total opened at 124 that didn't seem like much of a deal.

Anyway, I feel like I ought to work more on totals, since I seem to be better at finding ones that don't add up.

If Air Force is an 18 point dog, would it be fair to say that they wildly blow...yonder?

Hoops, teased or not

Sports Objective hasn't posted any hoops picks yet today, though he's posted something regarding baseball betting. I'm not convinced this will make me care enough to bet on baseball this year, but we'll see.

Meanwhile, I've made a couple of bets while I'm waiting.

I'm trying a double tease on the Texas at Oklahoma State game. I'm teasing
OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)under 156, and OKLAHOMA STATE(+6.5)over 148. Both of these have no vig, so if I get one I break even. Of course, Texas can rain on my parade by winning by seven or more. Fading Texas after they've lost 3 of 4 doesn't seem half as sexy as backing KState against the unbeaten 'Horns a couple of weeks ago, probably because it's not.

I've also taken uconn(+11)over 139.5, against LOUISVILLE. The unteased 144 seems to be a compromise between Louisville's high scoring games, and Connecticut's lower scoring games. The tease gets the over down around the upper end of UConn's recent totals. I'm not sure how safe I would have felt with the teased under, as Louisville seems to routinely total over 148.

Speaking of safe, Louisville has jumped out to a 17-10 lead, so the only thing keeping UConn within the line is my tease, at least for now.

Ugh. 25-14, 12:00 to go in the first half. I should have just bet the over. This could get ugly. UConn doesn't seem too impressive on the road. Of course, they lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but beat Texas at home, so I already knew that.

Texas is favored by 3 now. Should I fade them again? I've got an hour and a half to decide.

Meanwhile, in the last couple of days I've bet a couple of other games. The first was
georgia(+7)over SOUTH CAROLINA. Georgia led most of the game, ultimately losing,
78-77. Good enough for me.

The other was ARIZONA(+6.5), under 154.5 hosting california. Arizona won outright,
76-72. Sports Objective took ARIZONA(+2), which was also good enough. I probably would have teased the Georgia total as well, if it had been available, but bodog likes to withhold some of these. I don't recall wich way I wanted to tease it, or what the over/under was, for that matter. Alot of these totals are accurate enough that you can tease them either way and win.

Louisville leads 48-34 at the half. Ugh.

Indy opened as a 4.5 point favorite in Super Bowl XLIV. After about a half hour the line moved to 5, and eventually it settled at 5.5. That's not enough for bodog, however. Their line is 6. At covers.com, Pinnacle still has the line at 4.5. Five books have the line at 5, eleven have it at 5.5, and four are up to 6. At 5dimes you can get Indy by 11 at +200, if you're feeling particularly confident about the Colts. So far I've taken NewOrleans(+6)over Indianapolis. If the line moves any higher I'll probably take the Saints again.

Speaking of which, it's 9:00, and I just teased OKLAHOMA STATE(+7.5), under 156.5. Since the total moved from 151.5 to 152, it seems to make more sense to tease the under even higher, rather than tease the over down. I probably didn't have time to do another double tease anyway.

Louisville won, 82-69. Oh well. I shoulda took the over.

I just checked the live betting on Okla St vs Texas. Pure degeneracy. I'll settle for losing 2 or 3 bets on this game, thank you very much. Speaking of which, Texas is up 10-8, 11:30 to go in the first half, so it looks alot better for me in this one...so far.

Okla St is up 19-14, 7:25 to go in the first half.

Last week I got INDIANAPOLIS(-8)over nyjets right, but flamed out on
NEW ORLEANS(-4)over minnesota, as the Saints squeaked out a 31-28 victory in OT. Worse than that, I held off on making a pick for as long as possible, but predicted on the air and in a podcast that the game would not be close. I recommended you take either minnesota(+160) or NEWORLEANS(-4), as the point spread would not come into play. So even when I refrain from making a pick, I'm completely wrong. We'll see if I do any better on the Super Bowl. 1-1 is the best I've managed on any week of the playoffs.

Oklahoma State is up 36-32 at halftime. 68 points looks pretty good for the under, so far. For my teased over, the two teams will need to score 80 in the 2nd half. As long as they can keep from scoring 88 more my teased under is good. We'll see if the Cowboys can keep from blowing their lead.

Speaking of blowing their lead, OSU lost, 72-60. The under covered easily, but 7.5 wasn't enough.

Just checked Sports Objective. He took OKLAHOMA STATE(+3). If it's any consolation, I'm reading the lines the same as he is, at least in this case. He has shown me the way to pick my own losses. Maybe I should go after totals. I seem to be shit hot there.