Raider pucker factor / The royal we

Halfway through the weekend, and I haven't bet on any football.  Well, we can't let that happen. I took
OAKLAND(+2.5)over pittsburgh.  There is a bit of a pucker factor taking the Raiders, but Pittsburgh hasn't exactly overachieved at the coliseum when they were good.  LeVeon Bell may be back, but I think it's a little early to say the Steelers are good again.

Otherwise, now that Denver's lost a game, they feel a bit less predictable, and Robert Griffin III is starting to look more like himself, so I feel like I need a bet that will win with a range of outcomes.  I need to be cut some proverbial slack.

That's why I went with the double tease, of Denver and the over, and Washington and the over.  This gives me a range where if Denver wins by seven to 17.5 I win, as long as the teams go over 52.  Of course, Dallas and Philadelphia showed us that these projected shootouts are never a certainty, but we'll take our chances.  You're not coming with me?  The royal we, then.

DENVER(-6.5)over washington, OVER 51.5 and
wahsington(+18)over DENVER, OVER 52.  I tried to save $$ by teasing 5.5 instead of 6 in the Washington bet, but still paid even money on both bets.

I high scoring game here will be good for me in fantasy as well, as between my two teams I have Griffin, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker...oh year, and Jordan Reed.  Still ahven't decided if I will start him, though.   Hopefully my scoring bias isn't clouding my judgement here.

Another week, another 7 team parlay

I have a new 7 team college parlay.  Imagine that.  On the other hand, I've noticed that many of the heavy favorites I've parlayed the last few weeks have not covered the spread.  So, I've taken a few of the underdogs from the same games.

I have purdue(+26.5)over MICHIGAN STATE.  State may have found some new explosiveness in their offense, but 27 points worth?

I have auburn(+12.5)over TEXASA&M.  Auburn is better this year, and the Aggies don't play defense. They should have blown my five-way parlay last week, as they had to come back in the end vs. Ole Miss.

I have iowa state(+33.5)over BAYLOR.  Baylor didn't impress me last week.  Not sure what they've got if they have to play anybody mediocre.

Having said all that, my lack of confidence in these favorites does not extend to me expecting them to lose.
My parlay is:

MICHIGAN STATE(-3500)over purdue
TEXAS A&M(-535)over auburn
OREGON(-42000)over washington state
ALABAMA(-4000)over arkansas
lsu(-300)over OLE MISS
BAYLOR(-2500)over iowa state and
oklahoma(-2000)over KANSAS.

Michigan State won, 14-0, so the Boilermakers came through for me.

Oklahoma is losing, 7-0, and just gave up a big gain to KU.  This is not the one I expected to lose.  I figure the Aggies let me down, or LSU.  Speaking of the Aggies, they are down 10-7 right now, though this is due in part to a nice goal line stand by A&M...A&M just scored, on a 70 yard run after the catch.  We'll see what their defense can do.

Botched one out of my two NFL parlays today.  My 3-way came through, as Denver, Seattle and San Francisco all won, but Houston screwed my 5-way, getting mangled by the Rams, 38-13.  (The 5-way bet had the teams in my 3-way plus Houston and Chicago.)

I also lost on Marquez-Bradley.  Good thing I've been crushing the 1-2 and 2-4 NLHE games on 5dimes.

My 5-way NCAA parlay on Clemson over BC (W24-14), Bama over Kentucky (W48-7), Baylor over Kansas State(W35-25), UCLA over Cal (W37-10) and Texas A&M over Ole Miss (W41-38--whew!) didn't hurt either.

Texas derails my parlay

I'm on my way to losing my NCAA parlay for the first time since I started betting multiple heavy favorites. Texas leads Oklahoma 36-20 with 7:00 to go.  The game is only that close because Case McCoy threw a pick-6 to a D-lineman 3 or 4 minutes ago.

Texas just got a sack on 4th and 12 on their 13, and now is running up the Sooners gut.  This baby is over.

I just got another parlay in, about a minute before Baylor at KState started.  I forgot to check the O/U until after the game started.  it is 73.

Apparently KState plays defense.  3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, and Baylor leads, 21-19.  It also took Baylor more than one play to score this week, unlike what, 3 out of their first 4 scores coming on one-play drives last week?

KState just went up, 25-21.  Meanwhile, Boston College is beating Clemson 14-10.  Either of these games will be enough to derail my new parlay.

Which is: CLEMSON(-2500)over bostoncollege, texasa&m(-250)over OLEMISS, baylor(-750)overKSTATE, UCLA(-3000)overcal, and bama(-4200)over KENTUCKY.  The game I forgot was oregon over WASHINGTON.  I don't remember the moneyline odds, but Oregon was favored by 14.  Right now they lead by 14, 28-14.

Baylor just connected on a deep pass, and is up again, 28-25.  Clemson is up now too, 17-14.

Had I remembered to include Oregon, this parlay should have had a bigger payout than the first, since the Aggie odds are relatively short.  I was hurrying to get something in before Baylor started, however.

I'm a bit surprised that 5dimes took my other parlay down already.  I wanted to see if the odds had moved on any of the games.

Baylor & Clemson each won by 10.  Oregon is up by 14 again.  I think I'm home free as long as the Aggies come through.  Last year they beat Ole Miss despite giving up 6 turnovers.  Hopefully last year motivates them to clean up their act.

Baylor bears parts of parlays

I had CLEVELAND(-3)over buffalo, after shopping for a point I didn't need, as the Browns won, 37-24 or so.  Nothing to brag about, as everyone seemed to like Cleveland this week.  Today I have a massive six-team moneyline parlay going, with Louisville(-21500), Alabama(-400000), Clemson(-475), LSU(-375), South Carolina(-1650) and Baylor(-7000).

I heard a computer simulation based prognosticator say a couple of days ago that Temple had about a 20% chance of beating Louisville.  If that is anywhere near being true, than any bet involving Louisville (-21500) has to be a massive sucker bet.  Either way, I would put Temple's chances as closer to 5%, which works out to  LOU(-20000)...I think.  Anyway, I suspect anybody that gives Temple a 20% chance of winning is doing a lot of damage to their credibility.

Right now Bama-Ga State is in the 3rd quarter, with the Tide up, 38-0, and Louisville is up 24-0.  Florida State, another team I considered including, is beating Maryland, 35-0.  I guess Maryland scared me because they were ranked, but they won't be ranked tomorrow.

All these games combined pay $68.25 on a $100 bet.  A moneyline parlay of lsu over MISSISSIPPI STATE and clemson over SYRACUSE at the moment will net you $57.14, but LSU ML has dropped to -300, while the Clemson ML has moved up to -560.

According to my calculations, the previous odds work out to LSU and Clemson winning 64.7% of the time, while the current odds give it a 63.6% chance.  So basically those other four games are making you another $11, which doesn't sound like much, but is almost a 20% better payout.

Shit.  Georgia State scored.  'Bama is up only 38-3....make that 45-3.  Florida State is up 42-0

Louisville leads 30-0, and so far is the big disappointment of these heavy favorites, though 'Bama was favored by 54 or 56 or something.

The ML odds have shifted to LSU -290, and Baylor -3800.  I therefore have parlayed the ML for LSU, Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon (-33000).  Oregon is playing Colorado, and is favored by 38.5.  Baylor is favored by 29 over West Virginia.  I'm not sure, but I think Baylor may have started playing defense or something.

If they have, my bet on the Baylor-West Virginia OVER 70 may be in Jeopardy.  Last year these teams scored 120 or so.  I think the over was about 79, and they hit that in the first half, or were a score away at halftime.  Something like that.

Apparently #3 Clemson is only considered to be the 18th or so best team according to the smart money.  If I lose today I think Clemson or LSU will be the disappointment.  Kentucky isn't beating South Carolina, no matter how out of shape Jadaveon Clowney is.

Louisville won, 30-7.  I wonder if that botches Teddy Bridgewater's Heisman hopes any further.  'Bama won, 45-3.  Florida State won, 63-0.  Clemson JUST scored and is up 28-7.

Clemson won, 49-14.  Oregon is up 29-16, closer than I'd like.  LSU is up, 7-0.  Baylor hasn't started yet.

Baylor just scored, on it's 3rd one-play-drive of the game, to take a 28-7 lead with 4:56 to go in the first quarter.  The two teams are halfway to the OVER 1/6 of the way into the game.  LSU is up 28-23 at the half.  That really looks like the game that could unravel my parlay.

I won all my bets today.  Here are the scores that contributed.  Baylor beat West Virginia, 73-42, covering the OVER by only 45, winning outright, of course, and just covering the 29 point spread, which I didn't bet.

Mississippi State kept it interesting for a while, but ultimately lost to LSU, 52-26.  Kentucky scored a bunch at the end to make me sweat a bit, but lost to South Carolina, 35-28.  This was the closest my parlays came to losing.  Oregon beat Colorado, 57-16.  Wow.

Last week I parlayed moneylines for indy over JACKSONVILLE(-400), and DENVER over philly(-550).  Indy won, 37-3, and Denver won, 52-20.  These paid just under 1/2.

I also parlayed the moneylines for 'BAMA over ole miss(-630), and texas a&m over ARKANSAS(-550).  These were both closer than I would have liked, 'Bama winning only 25-0, (since when does 'Bama only score 25?  Since when does Ole Miss play defense?), and the Aggies winning 45-33.  I also took a&m(-14) which lost, and negated more than half of my 36% parlay.

Interestingly, 'Bama was favored by 13.5, but their moneyline was more expensive than A&M, even though the Aggies had a bigger line.  Hmm.  This probably has something to do with the Aggies shaky defense, which may keep me from parlaying them much more this year, at least on the road.

These moneyline bets aren't very sexy, but I keep winning them, and winning is pretty sexy, so I think I'll continue to focus on them.

On that note, I have Marquez(-135)over Bradley next week.  I'm not heavy yet, but I may add to my position as the fight nears.  I am also figuring on taking St-Pierre(-235)over Hendricks.  I expect I will go heavier on this one.