Late Teases & Dog

My account suddenly has more $$ than I expected. In addition to collecting from my double tease on Pittsburgh-Baltimore, my bet at 2/9 on New England to win the AFC East came in today. I wasn't sure if I would collect when they clinched, or at the end of the season, but I have it now.

I've proceeded to put a nice chunk of it in jeopardy. I've done a triple tease on Cowboys-Redskins, and a double tease on Georgia-Texas A&M. I've also taken
Kentucky(+7)over Clemson in the Music City bowl. Kentucky just scored on their first drive to take a 7-0 lead.

My triple tease on the Cowboys game looks like this:
dallas(-1.5)OVER 36
dallas(-1.5)UNDER 48.5
WASHINGTON(+13.5)UNDER 48.5

I took Dallas and the Over first, and by the time I went for the other bets the total had moved from 42 to 42.5. This is lucky for me, since now I am paying the same minimum vig to get a 13.5 point window instead of 13. If the line had gone the other way I would have been stuck with a 12.5 point window, or I would havehad to pay more vig.

In the Independence Bowl, I teased
Texas A&M(+13)OVER 60 and
Georgia(-1)OVER 60.

Both of these teams put the sieve in defensive, know what I mean? Should be a ton of scoring. Just so I can root for the Aggies, I might tease Texas A&M(+13)UNDER 72 as well. I have until tomorrow to figure this out.

I split straight bets, cover teases

The early afternoon games are winding down, and at the moment I'm sweating the outcome of several bets. Atlanta is up 31-3 on Buffalo, but just went for it on 4th and 1 from about the 11, and converted. This is the kind of initiative I don't need when I have $$ on the UNDER.

The OVER/UNDER is 41.

I can really do without a push, since this will make up for taking the OVER(40) on Cincy-Kansas City. I knew I was in trouble when it was 3-3 at halftime. Cincy held on to win, 17-10.

Good. Atlanta managed to refrain from scoring, so the UNDER came in. Most of this game the UNDER looked completely safe, but there was a good bit of scoring at the end.

Meanwhile, of my two bets against the spread, one went very right , and the other went very wrong. I took GREEN BAY(-14)over seattle, and the Packers covered easily, 42-10. On the other hand, I took jacksonville(+10)over NEW ENGLAND, and the Pats whooped that ass, 35-7. Give me 30 points and I'm in business.

Which leaves my double tease. I teased PITTSBURGH(+3)OVER36, and
baltimore(+9)OVER36, and Pittsburgh won, 23-20, so the game went completely according to plan, and I won both my teases. This landed so well I could have teased both teams and UNDER48, and won those two as well.

How the World Will (Won't) End

I got this from Chad Millman's gambling blog in ESPN insider. Figured you all need to know.

"And finally, if you're convinced the end of the world is near, you can now get a piece of that action. Inspired by the apocalyptic movie "2012," bookmaker.com is offering odds on how the world will end, if it does end in 2012. Here are the options:

EARTH WILL BE HIT BY AN ASTEROID OR METEOR +750
AS A RESULT OF A NUCLEAR WAR +100
A PLANET WILL COLLIDE WITH OR PASS BY EARTH +1000
EARTH WILL BE SWALLOWED BY A BLACK HOLE +1200
EARTH'S POLAR CAPS WILL MAKE A SUDDEN SHIFT +1300
THE SUN WILL GIVE OFF SOLAR FLARES +3000
IT'S NOTHING, JUST THE MAYAN CALENDARS RESETTING I -450"

All I want to know is if people are putting up any money, since you might be able to draw interest off of it for a couple of years. No matter what happens the guy holding the money will have significant upside.

Speaking of predicting the future, I teased PITTSBURGH and the OVER, and baltimore and the OVER this morning. I think this works out to PITTSBURGH(+3), OVER 36, and
baltimore(+9), OVER36. Watch, now the final will be 17-16.

Both of these teams are trying to squeeze their way into the playoffs, where I'll be looking to go against either of them. The Ravens' demise should be easy to predict, while you will probably be able to get more favorable odds fading the Steelers, but the latter has a habit of winning games they shouldn't, so proceed with caution.

Cougars Expose Beavers

Cougars Wreck Beavers? Cougars Spank Beavers? If this game was close, we could say "Cougars Shave Beavers," or "Cougars by a Hair." That's so hot....but, it wasn't--close I mean.

It's the day after Christmas, and Boston College plays USC tonight in the Emarald Bowl, so what better time to cover some bowl picks?

(Aside from before the games, of course--I've already won and lost a couple of bets, so lets get into those first.)

I took Oregon State(-3)over BYU. Oops. The Cougars pounded the Beavers worse than a lesbian scene from My First Sex Teacher, a 44-20 humiliation. You'd think Sin City would have these LDSers confused and disoriented, but the Las Vegas bowl has become a second home for BYU the last few years

The next day I had the moneyline for Cal(-3)Utah, or Utah(+140). Cal jumped out to a 14-0 lead, before Utah came back with 27 unanswered points, on their way to a 37-27 victory. So right now I'm 1-1, but with a slight $$ lead since I got odds from the moneyline bet.

One game I would have liked to pick was Southern Methodist(+13)over Nevada. I didn't, because I knew nothing about SMU this year. My pick would have been completely rooted in nostalgia for the old Pony Express, when Craig James and Eric Dickerson ran wild. Too bad, because SMU won, 45-10. It's not every day you get the chance to cover a line by 48 points.

In the pros, I would have liked to have taken san diego(+3)over TENNESSEE. I didn't, because the Chargers supposedly already had the two-seed locked up, and hance had nothing to play for. From what I gather, however, the Chargers still needed to win on Saturday night to chinch their spot. If I'd known that I probably would have taken the Chargers, who I figure to be a pick, or maybe a point favorate at Tennessee.

I've taken GREEN BAY(-14)over seattle. I like the outdoor team against a dome team from two time zones west, in crappy weather, not that I've checked the weather report. Last second losses to Pittsburgh aside, the Pack have been playing really well lately, and I'm not convinced the Seahawks can keep up.

The Pats line opened at 7.5 and has moved to 10 on bodog. Tom Brady is banged up, and New England has been playing like shit alot of the time lately. The Pats need to win this game, and so do the Jags, but the Pats don't need to win by 10. jacksonville(+10)over NEW ENGLAND.

I took Nebraska(+2)over Arizona. Nebraska's offense sucks, but their defense kicks ass. The line has moved to a pick, so I guess I feel good about my bet.

I'm thinking about taking some more dogs (dogs have won every bowlgame but one so far) including Iowa(+4)over Georgia Tech, Stanford(+8)over Oklahoma, Texas(+4.5)over Alabama. I already have Texas to win the BCS championship at 8-1, so this is probably the game I'm least likely to take of the three.

Covers.com has a columnist picking overs and unders that makes pretty good sense. He recommends OVER(40) for kansas city at CINCINNATI, and UNDER(41) for buffalo at ATLANTA. He also likes OVER(42)for baltimore at PITTSBURGH. I'm thinking about this one as well, since these defenses reputations have outstripped their abilities. If I take this game it will probably be a double tease of both teams and the OVER.

In an article tracking the betting trends for this week, Covers.com refers to one game as Houston Rockets at Miami Dolphins. They call The Texans the Rockets twice, and the Texans once. I guess Houston's offenses' reputation precedes it. Look for them to score 80 or so this weekend.

Fuck Big Ben

Egad. I just watched the end of the Steelers-Packers game, and Pittsburgh won on the last play of the game, as Mike Wallace barely kept his feet in. This gives me a win
(green bay(+3)over PITTSBURGH), and a loss (green bay(pick)over PITTSBURGH). I took the inferior line early in the week, and took the improved line earlier today. I'm not sure why it moved so much. (The line opened as Pittsburgh(-3), moved to a pick, then settled at Pittsburgh(-1) for most of the week, moving back to Pittsburgh(-3) earlier today, or perhaps last night. Not sure why all the line moves.

Meanwhile, I lost some $$ on New Orleans and the Over. The line was
NEW ORLEANS(-8)over dallas, and the over was 53. Teased, I had
NEW ORLEANS(-2)over dallas, OVER 47. Dallas won, 24-17, so not only did the Saints lose outright, the teased under came in as well. This leaves
new york giants(-3)over WASHINGTON as my last chance to break even for the week, so I guess we'll see.

Bet Recap, after the Fact

No time to post earlier, but I did get some bets down. I took
INDIANAPOLIS(-7)over denver, new orleans(-10)over ATLANTA,
cincinnati(+7)over MINNESOTA, and san diego(+3)over DALLAS. The Colts won and covered, 28-17. The Saints won, but failed to cover, 26-23. I know the Saints are undefeated, but will anyone be that surprised if they get bounced out of the playoffs after all the close calls they've had? On the other hand, home field advantage shouldn't hurt them any. Cincy lost and failed to cover, 30-10. Apparently the loss at Arizona last week shouldn't trouble Viking supporters too much. The Chargers won outright, 20-17. What's more reliable than the Cowboys losing in December? They always seem to find a way.

My Jixes Fail

I'm trying to figure out why I didn't take new england(-5)over MIAMI. I must have some kind of tunnel vision going on. After Tom Brady's crap production last week (real and fantasy) I expected him to have a huge game today, and I expected the Pats to trounce the 'Fins. So far I'm half right. It's near the end of the 3rd quarter and Mr. Budchen is a ridiculous 15 of 18 for 305 yards and two TDs. The two scores were 58 and 81 yard plays, which get me extra fantasy points. I lost by 12 last week, but now that it's the fantasy playoffs each game is two weeks, and thsi week I have a 74-51 lead, for now.

I was thrilled to see LenDale White in the game for the Titans on 4th and goal from the 2, since my opponent has Chris Johnson, who has emerged as this year's top fantasy back. Then Indy called timeout to set their defense, after which Tennessee substituted Johnson back into the game. A fade to Kenny Brit was caught out of bounds, and the Colts took over on downs.

Right now the Titans trail, 24-10. Too bad, because I took
tennessee(+7)over INDIANAPOLIS. The best I can realistically hope for is a late score for a push, but I'd rather get a late score for my fantasy tight end, Dallas Clark, especially rather than Chris Johnson accumulating more points.

I took PITTSBURGH(-15)over oakland. The game is winding down, and Pittsburgh is threatening to take the lead, with the ball on the Raider 11. That's right, Pittsburgh trails, 20-17 at the two minute warning.

Never mind, Hines Ward just scored on an 11 yard pass. Too bad, since if the Steelers can't cover I'd rather they lose. Am I spiteful? You bet.

Dallas Clark just muffed a Tennessee onside kick. He's only gotten me 4 fantasy points today, but now he's giving the Titans a chance to cover my bet. Vince Young appears to be blowing it...yep. Four straight incompletions. Game over, 27-17.

Miami just took the lead on a 41 yard FG, 22-21....Tom Brady just threw a pick with 35 seconds remaining. The play is being reviewed, to see if his knee was down before the throw...game over. He wasn't down. My bet on the Pats to win their division is starting to look shaky.

About two minutes before the game started, I took san diego(-14)over CLEVELAND, basically to hedge against the fantasy disaster I could be looking at if Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson go off for the Chargers. Did I say hedge? Really I'm trying to jinx the Chargers, as superstitious as that may be. I'm hoping for a monster game from LaDanian Tomlinson, since him scoring 3 or 4 times could be the only way to adequately slow down San Diego's passing game.

Cleveland used about half the first quarter to drive down and score. San Diego trailing doesn't make it any more likely that the Chargers will run the ball, but any time San Diego doesn't have the ball for 7 or 8 minutes helps me.

San Diego just scored on a 66 yard pass to Mike Tolbert and lead, 10-7.

I took dallas(-1.5)over NEW YORK GIANTS. This is arguably about as big a sucker bet as the Pittsburgh bet (Oakland won, 27-24, by the way), since the line moved 4 points before I could bet. Most sites had the line move all the way to Dallas by 2.5. Dallas leads 3-0, and could have had more, as Tashard Choice (taking the snap out of the Wild Razor, or Razorcat, or whatever Dallas calls it) converted a 3rd & 2 from about the Giants 4...and fumbled into the end zone, where the Giants recovered. I may have to pick him up.

Apparently they overturned the call, because Choice just scored on a pass from Romo. My fantasy opponent saw the light after last week, and is starting Romo over Eli Manning, just as he should have last week.

Now Eli has come out of his funk, to lead the Giants down to score with a pass to Hakeem Nicks. What are the chances that both of us regret benching our Giants? If they stay in this game I would definitely like the Giants' chances in the 2nd half, with the home crowd and what not.

The Giants won, 31-24. Remind me to not take the Cowboys in December. The Cardnails destroyed the Vikings. Too bad, because I took minnesota(-3)over ARIZONA.

Conference Championship Day

The SEC Championship Game is underway, and Nick Saban has started 'Bama off in some sort of a spread, and so far they are moving the chains. I have a triple tease on this game, with Florida and the over, "Bama and the over, and 'Bama and the under. That's
Florida(even)over Alabama, over 36, Alabama(+12)over Florida, over 36, and
Alabama(+12)over Florida, under 48.

'Bama kicked a field goal to end their first drive, and Florida just punted.

I have also taken Georgia Tech(-1)over Clemson. Don't really have much to say about this game. Sould be a shootout, and Tech won when they met at the beginning of the season. I may have to tease both teams and the over.

'Bama is up, 32-13, with 5 minutes to go. Right now I'm winning both by bets on the Tide, with the over, and with the under. Any more than a FG and the under bt is done. A FG would make that one a push. Alabama has done a fine job of running out the clock, and Florida has done a fine job of driving down and turning the ball over.

Alabama just broke a long run, which was probably a tackle away from being another touchdown. Now they are kneeling their way to the end of the game, giving me the net win.

I preferred it when Georgia Tech had the lead, but the over is in--Tech and Clemson are tied,
33-33. Texas is nursing a 10-9 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go. Texas has one of their few coherent drives going right now. They are around the Nebraska 35, after starting on their own one...Nebraska just got an interception. I'm not convinced the 'Huskers can go 65 yards, but all they need is a FG right now. The 'Horns have to be nervous.

Apparently the last update I saw was between a score and an extra point--Clemson leads,
34-33. Meanwhile, Nebraska is already in FG range, at the Texas 28. Their kicker has a huge leg. As in elephantitis? No. As in a 57 yard career long. Texas is burning a timeout, in hopes of getting a drive after surrendering the lead.

4th down. Here comes the kicker. 43 yarder is good. Right now I wish I'd taken Alabama at
16-1 for the BCS championship. Even if Texas manages to win this, I'd want alot of points to take Texas vs. the Tide right now.

A bad kick, one completion to Jordan Shipley, and a horsecollar tatckle, and Texas is in FG range.

Colt McCoy rolled right on 3rd down and threw a pass out of bounds, after which the game clock rand down to :00. It looks like they will put a second back on the clock. The ball really did go out of bounds soon enough, but Texas has just displayed some major stupidity, along the lines of the LSU-Ole Miss game a couple weeks ago. They don't deserve their shot at this point.

I'm not crazy about this angle--46 yarder...he made it, by a couple of feet. Hook 'em Horns...I guess. 13-12, and I'm disgusted, to be honest. I'd still send my kid to Texas, because it's a good school in a great city--like Northewestern with good sports.

Tech scored, and apparently went for 2 and missed--39-34 with 1:20 to go. Clemson needs a touchdown to win. Checking the stats, neither team seems to pass a whole lot.

Tech just made a 4th down stop to win the game. I'm winning on both teams and the over, as well as Tech vs. the spread. I'm 5-1 on the day, despite only betting two games. Word.