The scores from yesterday held up, which is to say UTEP covered easily vs. UCF, and Georgia handled Tennessee. So I'm 1-1 there.

I've taken INDIANAPOLIS(-8)over nyjets, and NEW ORLEANS(-4)over minnesota. No time to get into it, but I'm taking crowd noise and a quick release for the "Aints" over a pass rush and advantages on the defensive and offensive lines for the Vikes. I wouldn't mind AD having a good game, but he hasn't done it lately, so I'm going the other way. Oh yeah, Sean Payton is also about 45 IQ points higher than Brad Childress, if that counts for anything.

UConn Back?

Wow. While I was eating, UConn completely took over the game. 1:29 to go and they lead,
84-71. I wish I'd seen it, just so I could have an opinion about what happened. Despite missing it, I can say that many road teams seem to have early leads, only to watch them dissolve in the second half. The home field advantage seems to be sort of like a running game, or rather, the road disadvantage seems to be akin to not having a running game. Makes it hard to protect a lead.

Ooof. Baylor beat UMass, 71-45. Pretty sure that's more than 17 points. Lost that one. Meanwhile, Georgia is up on Tennessee, 43-31, while UCF trails UTEP, 52-43. Hopefully the road team will be incapable of holding a lead (UTEP), while Georgia will hold on due to their home court advantage. About 15 minutes left in each.

UConn won, 88-74.

Degenerate Saturday

I'm sweating SpOrtsoBjective's picks again. SOB took ohio state(+6)over WEST VIRGINIA. I looked for some insurance, by teasing the line with the under, as

ohio state(+9.5), under 137.5. Right now there are :43 to go, and OSU trails 69-65, having blown a halftime lead of 40-28. It looked like this game would go over easily, but in the last few minutes UWV has been slowing the game down as they try to protect their lead. I need less than 4 points scored the rest of the way. It looks like the Mountaineers are going to stall and help me out.

:25 to go, and...

OSU got the ball back, missed a 3, and just fouled WVa. :5.7 left.

First one good....Second one good....71-65...OSU drives down, misses, and the clock expires. Wow. Early on I thought my tease was going to cost me this one, as there was just too much scoring. Instead, it saved me. SOB got the push, but I would have lost, since the line had moved to UWV(-5) by the time the cowards at bodog posted the spread. The teased under may have saved me, but a teased over (127.5) would have won easily, so clearly I guessed wrong on that one, but got away with it.


SOB recommends umass(+17.5)over BAYLOR. This is a big enough line that I won't try to tease it. SOB figures Baylor will get caught looking ahead to their tilt next week vs. Kansas State. Since K State just knocked off #1 Texas, this makes sense to me. The line is down to

umass(+17)over BAYLOR, and I've taken it.

SOB had some strong words about UCF(+4)over utep, which I will not repeat here. I'm taking his advice though.

I'm watching Texas at U Conn right now. The game is knotted at 20 all for the moment. UConn looks as though they may be even bigger, more athletic, and more physical than Texas, if that's possible. Texas' burnt orange may make them look big. On the other hand, UConn's home greys may have a sort of Hoya chic thing going on. Texas seems like the more disciplined, better team, though perhaps not as much as their divergent #1 and #21 rankings may suggest. In the Pomery Ratings, UT is #5, and UConn is #39, an even bigger spread. UConn is favored by 2.5 at home. I considered doing some sort of tease, but didn't. Right now I'm happy to enjoy this matchup.

Tennessee at Georgia kicks off in about 12 min. SOB is fading the Vols again. I want to tease the game, since vs. 'Bama this helped me win a game that he lost, but the cowards at bodog aren't posting a total, perhaps because Georgia's last five games have gone OVER. What the hell. SOB's picks have done well for me, and his opinion on this line makes sense, though I fear UGA may be a bunch of undersized weasels like the Tide. Tennesee's boys are BIG, though they sometimes seem a little clumsy...and lazy. GEORGIA(+6.5)over tennessee.

I missed MINNESOTA(-2)over michigan state. Not that I would have gone against State anyway, at least not on a spread this tight. On the other hand, they were favored by 22 vs. Iowa and won by 7. I wouldn't have felt bad about taking the Hawkeyes here. I will keep my eyes open for more lines like this. MSU has been pretty sorry vs. the spread this year, as we are overrated owing to our success in the tournament last year. Karma be damned.

I almost forgot to say--State won by one, 65-64. Sorry, SOB.

Texas is up 42-34 at halftime. UConn has a big kid named Robinson who had a monster alley-oop earlier, and recently drained a 3. I'm not sure if this is a sign of monster talent, or of a lack of discipline. Is this cat supposed to be jacking threes?




SOB is in Seoul, and seems to intend some sort of debauch that will last through next Wednesday. I leave him to it, though I say he's too much of a degenerate gambler to stay away from posting picks for that long. I'll take the under. Tuesday at the latest.

Fading Pitt, Watching Wake

Sports Objective recommended georgetown(+1.5)over PITTSBURGH tonight. I'm sticking with my teaser formula, and have georgetown(+6.5), OVER 123.5. I looked at both teams' recent totals, and 128 seems low, let alone 123. When I teased the game the line had moved to
PITT(-2), and I teased the line and total 4.5, at 11-10.

I was considering doing the same thing for wake forest(+6)over NORTH CAROLINA, but I couldn't decide whether to tease the over or the under. The number started at 157, and was up to 159 on bodog. I suppose I would have gone wake(+10.5), UNDER 163.5, but I'm too late. Wake Forest is up 14-12 right now, so betting the Demon Deacons (+6) may have been my best move.

I tease SOB, 'Bama-Tennessee

I've started sweating another handicapping blog for college hoops picks, since I've never bet NCAA basketball before. Yesterday SportsObjective won me $$ on
KANSAS STATE(+1)over texas (KState won, 71-62, bumping off the #1 team in the polls) and today SOB lost on ALABAMA(+2.5)over tennessee, but won me $$, as I teased the line and the under to ALABAMA(+7.5), under 144. I just squeaked by on the line, but covered the under easily, as Tennessee won, 63-56.

I didn't get to the internet early enough to get in on unc wilmington(+17)over VIRGINIA yesterday (UVA won by 2, nowhere near a cover), or OHIO STATE(-12)over northwestern tonight (OSU won and covered, 76-56). Not that the guy never loses, but he's pretty damn sharp. Consider this a recommendation.

SOB gives his reasoning most of the time, and usually seems to be fading the big public teams. I'm just impressed by his ability to find the vulnerable lines. After all, there are plenty of other public teams that he avoids on a given day.

I'm a bit leery of fading Tennessee on his say so, however. Having watched them a bit, I wasn't too impressed tonight, but they were much bigger and more athletic than Alabama. Of course, the more you follow a given team, the better you should be able to gauge their performance. Anyway, I'm beginning to form some opinions of my own about some of these teams, for whatever it's worth.

One more Dog than Fezzik

It's Saturday, about a half-hour from game time, and my bets are in. We'll go in order of the games. arizona(+7)over NEW ORLEANS. The top handicapper anywhere, who goes by the handle of "Fezzik," says he likes the Saints, citing their statistical supiority. I just think the stats go out the window when Kurt Warner is on a heater. Warner went 29 of 33 last week for five touchdowns. That's four incompletions, and five touchdowns. The Cardnails only had five 3rd downs the entire game. How you like those stats, Fezzik? The Saints have made a habit of not covering the second half of the season too. Even if you look past their three consecutive losses, I don't think you can ignore their failure to cover. Same thing happened with the Pats two years ago. If you were fading the Pats you could ride their failures to cover all the way to the Super Bowl.

I predicted the line would be about 5.5, and would adjust from there. Instead it started at seven and hasn't budged. I may have taken the Cards +3.5 or 4, so I'll take the 7.

baltimore(+7)over INDIANAPOLIS. I picked this line correctly. I'd been hoping the Ravens would make the playoffs just so I could bet against them, as I did last week. Didn't work out so well. I've been predicting another Colts choke in the playoffs. While this may not be the week, this is the game where they should show the most rust. I think they're vulnerable, and I don't really feel like laying seven with a vulnerable team. The Ravens could have won the last one, and barely lost, 17-15. I think last week's win blew some new life into the Ravens, along with some confidence. Momentum? Maybe. The smart money seems to like the Ravens, and the line most places is down to 6 or 6.5. I took the Ravens when the line came out, but bodog hasn't dropped ityet, so I guess I could have waited. I question whether the public $$ is going to come in on the Colts or not. I figure it would have happened by now. Fezzik loves this bet more than I do, citing a bunch of stats that I won't bore you with. Anybody with a pulse knows the Ravens have a better running game, and a better defense. Peyton Manning is the reason the Colts will win, but everything else points to a Ravens cover.

dallas(+3)over MINNESOTA This could go either way, but I'll take the team that has been playing better. Better than anyone else in the league, if you ask me. Throw in the the Vikings haven't been playing as well at the end of the year, aside from blowing out the Giants. Of course, the Carolina Panthers showed them how to do this the previous week...right after they handled the Vikings. I took* the Cowboys to win the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl before they beat the Eagles, at 11/2 and 10/1 respectively. Now their Super Bowl odds are down to 6/1, same as the Vikings. I got on that bandwagon before the buzz about Dallas became a deafening roar. Fezzik seems to like the Cowboys, but didn't sound committed. I wouldn't be surprised if he only bet the other 3 games, since he sounded much more opionionated about those. Most places this line is down to 2.5, but bodog still has it at 3.

Tim Hightower scored on the first play from scrimmage. Shades of Ray Rice. Shoulda took the over (57.5).

nyjets(+8)over SAN DIEGO I predicted this line would start at 10, and go higher. It opened at 9 some places, and 7.5 in others. I took the jets(+8) a few days ago, and now most places you can only find 7.5 or even 7. The Jets must have impressed the bettors last week, though there is still time for the public to bring it back the other way. The Jets match up really well against the Chargers, as the soft San Diego run defense could have a tough time stopping Thomas Jones and Shonn Green, and Phillip Rivers will have to throw into the teeth of a secondary that has allowed only eight passing touchdowns all year. Everybody seems to be talking about how they don't trust Mark Sanchez, but the bettors may be looking at how many close games the Chargers have played...actually it wasn't that many--five by a touchdown or less, and two more by eight. Right now I'm glad I have eight. I guess I'd like it even better if I had 9. When I guessed the line I was planning on taking the Chargers, but I guess I've talked myself out of it. I've taken all the dogs. I figure one of these favorites will cover, but I don't want to try to figure out which one. As long as two of them don't, I'm good.

The Saints drove down and scored, and the Cards turned it over on the next play. New Orleans scored again with the short field.

The Saints just scored again. 21-7. Reggie Bush just broke one for about 45 yards. Right now Fezzik looks like a genius. He usually does.

* This morning I said on the air that I "banged the Cowboys." Didn't sound right, as my co-hosts let me know. In fact, now that I think about it, "took" doesn't sound so good right now either. Of course, this wouldn't be the first time I made gay jokes about Cowboys, Dallas or otherise.

Mike B. discovers the love that dares not speak its name...

Since it's playoff time, the new lines may already be out, though the cowards at bodog no doubt will wait for the lines to stop moving before they post anything. In any case, I will now try to pick the new lines.

INDIANAPOLIS(-7)baltimore This could be closer to 4.5 or 5, given the Ravens' performance today, and how close their game was earlier in the year, but Indy is definitely a public team, so I'll guess high. I think next week is the best chance to bump off the Colts, while they are still rusty, though I still think the Chargers are the team with the best shot to take them out. The Colts would be way better off if they were playing the Jets, mainly because the Ravens would have a better chance of beating the Chargers than the Jets will. Speaking of which...

SAN DIEGO(-10)ny jets The Jets will have a hard time keeping up with any of the remaining teams, other than the Ravens, and we won't get to see that game. I think this will go higher.

NEW ORLEANS(-5.5)arizona How do you pick a line for this game? Especially after Warner's sizzling performance a few minutes ago. You don't. You pick a number between 4 and 7, and move the line once the $$ comes in. I think the Saints border on being a public team right now, in fact, I'd say they are. On the other hand, anyone who forgot what the Cardnails did last year in the playoffs just got a huge reminder. Welcome back from Mongolia, whoever you are. I think I take the Cards at anything over 4. I'm all about riding the hot hand, as I've said before. In fact, I might take the Cards(+3). Moving along...

MINNESOTA(-3)dallas Does the addition of Brett Favre make the Vikings a public team? If so, this could be 3.5. The way the 'Boys played yesterday (the last 4 weeks, really) I think it's 3. Mike B. told me yesterday he figured 2.5, but I figure Vegas will start on a prime number, to avoid passing through one. Now I will check the lines, and, if they are up, see if Mike wants to bang out a podcast.

No lines yet. Hold on while I call Mike.

I just talked to Mike, and these are his picks--we'll see who is closer soon enough.

INDY(-9)baltimore He thinks the Colts will go to the Super Bowl despite their slacker, sandbagging ways. I think I may be too high at 7, let alone 9, but we'll see.

SAN DIEGO(-7)ny jets Makes me wonder if the Jets might be the team that overly impressed the public this week. I guess I'd be more impressed if I'd picked Cincy myself.

NEW ORLEANS(-5)arizona Basically same pick as me, for the same reasons. I'm mainly curious which way this one moves.

dallas(pick)MINNESOTA Apparently he's starting to take the 'Boys seriously. I doubt that he's alone, especially now that the commentators have fellatiated Dallas for the past day, completely unlike what I've been doing for the past week. Just don't ask me to explain how it's different. Please don't. Please.

Mike loves the Cowboys, and they love him

I think by the weekend he may be closer than me, though I'll be shocked if the line opens lower than 2.5. Also I'll be pissed, because I'm leaning towards 3 dogs, and I want some points to work with, damnit.

This may have taken the drama out of picking for the podcast, so I think I will wait for Bill & Sal's lines to do it. Maybe I'll even change my mind by then, since I made my picks about 10 minutes after the Packers got eliminated.

JimJim BSes Around / Ravens Romp / Defenseless in Arizona

I took the Phily moneyline parlayed with the over yesterday, which gave me a little better than 4/1 odds. Of course, Dallas won, 34-14. That's fine, because I made this bet as insurance for my futures bets on the Cowboys. If I'd won, this would have covered my futures bets on both the Cowboys and the Packers, who I have at 11/2 and 9/1 to win the NFC Championship, and at
10/1 and 22/1 to win the Super Bowl, respectively.

The Packers' odds have already dropped to 7/1 and 15/1, in front of their victory over the Cardnails later this afternoon. I expect the Cowboys odds to drop to about 3/1 and 6/1 when the futures odds come out again.

I got the moneyline/over parlay idea from a BS Report earlier this week, where Bill Simmons suggested it to Chad Millman, who endorsed it as a smart bet. As do I, not that you care. My point is that I still consider it a smart bet after it lost, due to the 4/1 odds, not to mention the fact that if the Eagles had found a way to come back, the over covers by 20 points. The Sports Guy was completely right to say the Eagles would need the game to be a shootout in order to win.

Speaking of the BS Report, I talked to my wife yesterday, and within the last couple of days my 2 1/2 year old, who doesn't talk, but can work an i touch, managed to download a BS report. I have no idea if he did this on purpose, but since she just got the i touch in the last month or two, and since I've never even seen it, except in pictures, he didn't find his way there because of any electronic pathway of mine. Does the Sports Guy have another generation of readers waiting in the wings? Or at least listeners? I am petrified for my son's attention span right now. Who's going to do their homework when they can play with the next generation of electronic devices? On the other hand, these things will probably do their trig homework for them, something that once would have been considered cheating. The rise of the machines is near. Other than that, the future seems bright.


I've been listening to the BS Report all the way back to when it was "Eye of the Sports Guy," so my kid probably recognizes Bill's voice. Given the fact that every time I'm away from home for a bit he forgets who I am, he may recognize Bill's voice more than he does my own. And I'm on the radio, damnit! I have a radio voice! At least compared to Bill Simmons.

I probably would have just taken the Cowboys(-4) if I hadn't been reading Millman. The outcome was pretty much what I expected, but that doesn't mean Cowboys(-4) isn't a sucker bet. Right now my theory is that sucker money rules the playoffs. Personally, I think it pays to take the teams with momentum, if you can figure out who they are. Two years ago I went 3-1 taking the Giants, the lone exception being their OT victory at Green Bay. On the other hand, I went 0-3 on the Cardnails last year, until finally winning a tease on them and the OVER in the Super Bowl. I don't trust teams who bring shaky defensive resumes into the playoffs. Along with the Packers' recent performance, that is why I'm taking

green bay(+3)over ARIZONA, as well as my futures bets on the Pack. If the Cards go deep into the playoffs again they will probably ruin my playoff record again as well.

Ray Rice just scored on the first play of the game for the Ravens, so my bet on the Pats is in jeopardy. I've been pulling for the Ravens all year, and they are probably my favorite AFC team right now. I liked them before I lived outside Baltimore last summer, mainly because of their defensive identity. I think they lost that identity this year, but have been slowly reclaiming it late in the season. Having said that, if they win they could make the AFC hell to handicap.

The Ravens just forced and recovered a Brady fumble. Here we go. Did I mention that I took the Pats at 4-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason? You can get better odds than that right now.

LeRon McClain just scored from the one, after Ray Rice was stopped just short of the line. Just like my fantasy season, other than that would have been Willis McGahee. Better odds? Bodog's odds are off the board right now, but in Vegas the odds on the Pats might be soaring right now.

I'm about to go hit the bar. My buddy Ed from Boston is already down there, suffering quietly, I imagine, though there are enough Rhode Island National Guard here right now that O'Kelley's will surely be overwhelmingly pro Pats. I'm not feeling belligerant enough to wear an Orioles hat down there. My heart is with the Ravens, and my $$ is with the Pats, so I guess I'll wear neutral colors.

Go Lions.

Go Tigers.

Go Bears...Bruins?

Go Red Sox?

Go Green.

6:50 to go in the 1st, and Brady just threw a pick. Jesus.

Rice scored again. 21-0. This is great for my Fantasy Playoff Challenge team. I was counting on Rice to score me a bunch of points in a loss, as opposed to Marion Barber's goose egg in yesterday's win. If anybody had Jeremy Maclin and Felix Jones they are sitting pretty right now, mainly because everybody else has more obvious players...like Rice.

Field goal, Ravens. 24-0.

Anyway, I feel bad for Ed. I mainly wanted the Ravens to lose, so they wouldn't cloud my judgement, so I could concentrate on winning $$. Right now they look like they could go further, though I have my doubts about this if the Chargers or Colts don't turn the ball over. If they got to the Super Bowl I would probably have to root for them, even against my 22-1 shot Packers. After all, I wondered in this space if the refs could be outfitted in black and white Cheeseheads after their performance in the Ravens at Packers game earlier this year. Bitter? You could say that.

Not that I think Ravens-Packers was fixed or anything...well, maybe a little, but not compared to Ed. Ed is deeply cynical towards pretty much all sports, and believes most games are fixed. Well, according to covers.com, 70% of bettors took the Ravens, so the bookies got hosed. If anybody fixed today's game it sure the hell wasn't Vegas...or they fixed it before they figured out which way the money was headed....or they forgot to pay off Ray Rice.

The Pats have brought it back to 24-7. Of course, the worst possible outcome for me would be the Pats coming back but failing to cover. I can't count this out, since the Ravens have stopped showing that they are capable of moving the ball. Right now I feel like I might take them vs. the Chargers, but not the Colts. The door could be opening for the slacker sandbagging Colts to get to the Super Bowl, in spite of themselves. The Chargers are the only team left I like to derail the Colts, if the Pats get eliminated here.

.............................................................................

I'm back from the bar. Ed didn't go. Good for him. Ravens 33, Pats 14. Ray Rice got my fantasy playoff challenge team 27 points, and their kicker kicked ass as well, with another 9. Randy Moss got me a whopping 4 points, as Julian Endelman got both of the Patriot scores.

Ed worked last night, so my guess is he slept through it all. I'll let him sleep. The Rhode Island National Guard wasn't there either. They will probably be there later on, getting loaded and what not. The R.I.N.G.'s presence down here has had the fortunate side effect of clarifying Jersey Shore for the uninitiated, i.e. those from the south (or anywhere other than the East Coast, really) who don't know what a guido is. You'd think 40 or so years of movies and TV shows about the mafia would have enlightened the outer provinces, but I guess not.

Jersey Shore has had the fortunate side effect of making the term guido commonplace. Now I don't have to worry about seeming racist if I use the term. It joins redneck and white trash as perhaps the only slurs acceptable these days. Judging by the casts' enthusiasm for the term, you might not even have to worry about getting your ass kicked if you use it either, though I wouldn't bank on it. Speaking of which, the R.I. guidos seem to be pretty well behaved relative to the cast of Jersey Shore--then again, the miscreants on COPS seem pretty well behaved relative to the cast of Jersey Shore.

Maybe we're not feeding them enough liquor.

The Green Bay Packers have been feeding Arizona the ball enough to trail, 24-10 at halftime. This doesn't feel as insurrmountable as Phily's predicament yesterday...or New England's this afternoon. Probably has something to do with Arizona's defense, relative to the Cowboys or Ravens. On the other hand, we saw this last year. The Cardnails look poised to ruin my playoffs again.

Anybody take the over? Green Bay narrowed the gap to 31-24, but Arizona is threatening again after a 42 yard run from Beanie Wells.

Good God. Green Bay just answered 'Zona's last score with one of their own, on 4th & 10, no less. 38-31. Green Bay might have a chance if they could successfully onside kick a couple more times. The 4th quarter is barely under way, and we might see them double the over by the end. Defense? Defense my ass.

I've talked about this before, but it bears repeating. Bill Simmons coined the term "sports bigamist." While I may be quibbling over the definition, I would lke to say that I consider myself more of a "sports philanderer," and I expect my son to be another, whether I raise him that way or not. He is half Filipino, after all.

Did I jinx the 'Zona offense? They just punted. Hopefully the Packers don't follow suit. But they probably will--their offense sucks.

I am loyal to my Detroit teams. You could say we have an open relationship...sort of like when John Edwards or Newt Gingrich's wives were in the hospital. Not that the Lions have a terminal illness or anything...

What? Their wives are still alive? You try to come up with a good analogy on the fly. Fine...I'm more like a sports Elliot Spitzer, only if his wardrobe consisted of T-shirts from various bordellos.

Green Bay has tied the score. Thank you, reverse jinx. Bill should copyright the reverse jinx, but he's too much of a humanitarian.

I'd like to retract my previous statement comparing myself to Eliot Spitzer. I'd rather go for a Tiger Woods analogy. After all, I took my wife to a driving range when she was six months pregnant, and I have a thing for Michelle Wie, who has to be 19 by now, I might add. I'd like to remind everyone for the record that Tiger is half-asian, just like my son.

Arizona is up 45-38, 2:26 left to play. If Green Bay manages to score I'm wondering if they can score again after Arizona. 3rd & 5 from the 25.

First down on a pass to Jermichael Finley.

Touchdown on the next play. 1:52 to go. Way too much time left. Didn't the Packers learn anything from losing to the Steelers a few weeks ago? Warner is WAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY hotter than Roethlisberger was right now, I might add.

I may live to regret saying it, but I think Packer fans are more obnoxious than Cowboy fans right now. This could easily change, now that the Cowboys have won a playoff game. As previously noted, Cardnails fans aren't obnoxious, because they don't exist, though that may change in the near future. Warner needs to hurry up and retire, give that Leinert guy his shot.

Arizona is in field goal range now. :14 seconds left, and I guess Arizona is out of timeouts, because they are about to kick.

I was about to say this one is over, but how many reverse jinxes can you attempt in a row? The kicker missed. on the downside, I would have gotten a push out of this. On the other hand, if the Packers can figure out how to play defense occasionally, I stand to make alot of $$ in a few weeks.

That was probably a bad time to mention that, but Charles Woodson called tails, and the Packers won the toss. I've been avoiding extreme punctuation for a few sentences now. The football gods don't go for that sort of thing.

It's 3rd and long. The Cardnails have chosen an inopportune time to play defense. I'm wondering if the Packers will go for it on 4th down, since their defense hasn't made a stop all game, and since Bill Belichek has legitimatized that approach.

It's over. I'm not sure if that was a fumble or a pick, but the Cardnails jsut scored. 51-45. The rest of these playoffs could be ridiculously difficult to handicap. I shouldn't be in shock that the Packers lost, considering how hard they tried to blow this game, but I am.

I can't believe I didn't think of it with 1:52 to go, but the Packers should have done the Mike Tomlin thing and onside kicked. Or not. Really, 1:52 is probably not enough time to get away with that.

No Shuffle for Wild Cards

Ugh. The NFL playoffs are here, and I can't really say I'm excited to see three games that just took place last week. What little mystery there is hinges on the assumption that the losers of last week's matchups were all sandbagging.

Were they? I took cincinnati(+10)over NYJETS based on intel that the Bengals were going to try to win, and I'm still hearing that they were trying, at least at first. The Jets 37-0 victory probably made a deeper impression on me because I lost $$ on it, but it is what it is.

I expected the Bengals to be favored by 2 or 2.5, given that they are now at home, but they looked like shit last week on the road. The line opened at CINCY(-4), and has dropped to 2.5-3, except at Legends, where it's all the way down to BENGALS(-1). Is it worth it to open an account with them if you want to take Cincy? Don't ask me, I got
nyjets(+3)over CINCINNATI. Chad Johnson is banged up, Darrelle Revis is running wild in the Jet secondary, and I really like the Jet defense and running game. I was never impressed with Thomas Jones a couple of years ago, but at this point my theory is that his problem was he was playing for the Bears. This theory would also explain the resurgence of Cincy RB Cedric Benson, as well as Jay Cutler's disappointing '09 season.

If you check the stats, what you find is that aside from their glaring weakness, the Jets are the best team in the playoffs. They are by far the top defense this year (by about 500 fewer yards allowed) and have by far the top running game of any of theplayoff teams, averaging 35 more yards on the ground than the Ravens. Of course, they accumulate so many yards on the ground because they can't trust Mark Sanchez. While their defense is outstanding, their stats are augmented by their running game shortening their games.

Ultimately, the Jets are very one dimensional, and this makes them inherently vulnerable, especially if they get behind on the road with a rookie quarterback. On the other hand there isn't anything in particular that Cincy does that scares me. Earler in the year I could have pointed to Cedric Benson, but I don't think he's done nearly as well since his injury. Give me the points.

I took NEW ENGLAND(+3.5)over baltimore. I've been hoping the Ravens would squeak into the playoffs so I could bet against them, and I got my wish. Having said that, I've been getting more and more nervous about this pick ever since I made it. I tend to see the Pats either winning by 9 or 10, or barely winning or losing on the final drive. The wa they've been playing, I'm starting to lean towards the latter, which means I probably should have taken the Ravens. On the other hand, it seems like Baltimore's offense has turned into Ray Rice right, Ray Rice left, Ray Rice in the flat. The Ravens will need to do something else successfully on offense if they are going to win. Their defense improved as the year went on, and they finished behind only the Jets and the Packers, but this is not the dominant defense we have come to expect from the Ravens. Rex Ryan deserves credit for their previous success, jsut as he deserves credit for the Jets' success this year.

On paper the Ravens look much better than 9-7. They are 3rd in total defense, and have the 5th best running game in the league. They are 6th in net points, and have outscored supposed offensive juggernauts like the Cardnails and Texans. This points to alot of choke in their DNA. As questionable as the Pats have been this year, I wouldn't want to go against them when they're playing a choker.

In the end, I guess I'm hoping that Joe Flacco stinks it up in some crappy New England weather on the road. Bill Belicheck having the sense to run occasionally would also be nice. I know I'm asking for alot.

This line opened at 4, and seems to have settled at 3.5. I don't think it will move from there, unless it goes back up on game day.

Arizona decided they had nothing to play for last week, and let Matt Leinert stink it up. Even so, the Packers win was only the last of many, including a 48-10 drubbing of the admittedly terrible Seattle Seahawks, and a Monday night win over the Ravens with the help of some admittedly terrible refereeing. If these refs could find some black and white striped cheeseheads they would have worn them.

The Packers last loss was to the Steelers on the last play of the game. While this road loss may lead you to worry about the Packers prospects away from Lambeau in the playoffs, they won't face anyone as clutch as Ben Roethlesberger in the playoffs. Neither will anyone else. Nobody is as clutch as Big Ben. Except Robert Horry. And David Ortiz, when he was on the juice. Allegedly, I mean.

The players you could argue are that clutch are all in the AFC, hampered by shoddy defenses and shaky running games. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself.

This line opened at 2.5, and I was lucky enough to get green bay(+3)over ARIZONA. The line fluctuated a bit, but now is down to Arizona(-1), about where I whought it would open.

Arizona's passing game, while always dangerous (wxcept when Leinert plays), was only 11th in the league this year, while their running game was 29th. They were 20th in total defense. The only thing going against the Packers is that they have to travel to Green Bay and back this week.

The most interesting repeat from last week is Philadelphia at Dallas. The Eagles actually had something to play for, since a win would have gotten them the 2 seed, but they seem to have given up once they got behind, on their way to a 24-0 loss. The Cowboys rank only a little ahead of the Eagles in total defense, but they are 5.5 ahead per game in points allowed. Philly leads them by a similar margin in scoring, so I don't make too much of this. On the other hand, the Eagles are 22nd in rushing, compared to 7th for the Cowboys.

If the Eagles have an edge, it would seem to be the big play capabilities of DeSean Jackson, but Miles Austin and Patrick Clayton have played a similar role for the Cowboys, and their chances are improved by the Dallas running game, which the Eagles will be forced to respect. Right now Dallas appears to have the edge on the offensive and defensive lines, and the Eagles just lost their starting center to an injury, which ought to reinforce their edge.

The line opened at DALLAS(-4)philadelphia. It dropped to 3.5, and looked like it could go lower. I waited, but now the line seems to be solidly back at 4. Earleir in the season I swore off betting on Eagles games, since I always got them wrong. I took the Eagles last week, and they promptly lost. Now I'm looking at Dallas, but don't want to give 4 points. I feel like this won't be a close game however. I think one team or the other loses by 17, after which a bunch of coaches get pink slips. These games always seem to end in demoralization and humiliation, perhaps because the stakes are always that much higher than in similar rivalries.

So, I may sit this one out, though I usually bet all the playoff games. I don't want to jinx the Cowboys, now that I have Dallas at 11/2 to win the NFC, and 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. I also took Green Bay at 9/1 to win the NFC, and 22/1 to win the Super Bowl. I think these are the teams that represent real value at this point, while the favored Saints and Vikings have been slipping. I feel like one of these teams gets to the NFC Championship, since the top seeds never seem to make it, and since the NFC seems to go to the hot team in recent years. The Vikings did stop losing long enough to humiliate the Giants, but so did the Carolina Panthers.

I took Iowa(+4)over Georgia Tech, and when the line moved to 5.5, I doubled up on the Hawkeyes, who won the Orange Bowl, 24-14.

I forgot to bet Central Michigan(-3.5)over Troy, and my computer was slow enough to keep me from getting $$ down before the kickoff. Right Now the teams are 41-41 in the 2nd OT, and CMU has blocked a Trojan FG, so I suspect the Chippewas will kick a FG and fail to cover. Hooray for slow Cuban internet! CMU just won, 44-41. I guess the OVER came in.

Week 17 Sandbagging / Eagles Jinxed

The Arkansas Razorbacks squeaked through to beat the East Carolina Pirates in overtime,
20-17, due in part to some atrocious kicking from the Pirates. Fine by me, I was getting 8 points with ECU. Won that one.

The intel I've been getting off Chad Millman's gambling blog liked the Bengals and the Pats to come out and play, despite having nothing more at stake than either the 3 or 4 seed in the AFC, so I took cincinnati(+10)over NEW YORK JETS, and
new england(+7)over HOUSTON. At this point it sounds like Carson Palmer will play about one series, and Tom Brady and Wes Welker a little more than that, so it looks like I could get burned. All I need is a couple of close losses, but we'll see what happens. There appears to be a complete disconnect between Millman's sharp sources and the media.

I took chicago(-3)over DETROIT. Any of my three readers is probably aware that I don't usually go against the Lions, however sensible it may be (or bet on them, for that matter) but now that they have an outside shot at the #1 pick, I feel like this is betting on their future. In any case, they could come out flat, and the Bears are hot right now, having put the Vikings hopes of staying indoors through the playoffs in jeopardy last Monday night. I should have bet this sooner. So many have piled on the Bears that I'm embarrassed to say how much vig I paid. Lets move on.

Baltimore needs to win to make the playoffs, but they don't need to win by 11. Oakland has a habit of winning games agaisnt good teams as well. I took
OAKLAND(+10.5)over baltimore. Am I crazy about betting against the teams of my fantasy starters, Calvin Johnson and Ray Rice? Well, they've both had monster games in losses, so what the heck.

I swore off betting on Eagles games a while ago, but since they and the Cowboys are among the only teams playing each other whose motives are clear, I couldn't stay away, even though I'm not confident here. I like the Eagles' big play capability and their defense, but I like the Cowboys' balance and their big play capabilities as well, and of course, this game is under Jerry Jones' giant scoreboard. On the other hand, the Eagles won the season finale at Dallas last year, 44-6. I've got philadelphia(+3)voer DALLAS. Will this jinx the Eagles? Probably.

Jan 2, 2010

After the smoke cleared from my earlier bowl wagers, I took a little break, drank heavily, and forgot to make some bets I was considering. I was iffy on taking Stanford(+7.5)over Oklahoma, because this line opened at 12 or so, but I really liked Northwestern(+8)over Auburn. Both my teams narrowly lost but covered, 31-27, and 38-35 in OT.

Meanwhile, I've recovered from my whisky and gin binge to get some bets down on the upcoming games. I have East Carolina(+8)over Arkansas. Beware drinking too deeply of the SEC Kool-Aid. I did, and I lost with Kentucky(+7)over Clemson (barely), 21-13. You may have, and may have lost with Tennessee(+4.5)over Virginia Tech. I didn't, but I should have taken VaTech, who romped, 37-14. I let the SEC scare me off.

I at least had the sense to hedge my Texas A&M - Georgia bets, teasing both of them and the over. The tease dropped the over to 60 from 66, and late scores brought the final to 44-20, Georgia, so I only lost a vig. I was sweating when there was no score halfway through the 2nd quarter, but these teams showed why the over was 66.

Anyway, East Carolina can score points in bunches, so Arkansas better keep up.

I'm staying away from Ole Miss -Oklahoma State, though I had considered taking the over. Unfortunately, I forgot. The Cotton Bowl just started, and I have nothing on it.

The Big 10(11) has yet to really embarrass themselves, unlike last year, but there is still time. I'm staying off of Michigan State(+8) Texas Tech. Tech is coachless, and State is without 14 players suspended for participating in a riot. We have a loooooooong tradition of rioting at the drop of a hat. Mark Dantonio needs to put the smack down and not let these guys play, Texas Tech be damned. We're going to lose this one anyway, what with our 103rd ranked pass defense against the perrenial top passing game in the country. I don't care what they did to Craig James' kid, or what the fallout is. DO NOT bet Michigan State here.

Meanwhile, I have taken Iowa(+4)over Georgia Tech. Both of these teams play alot of close games, so give me the points. Hopefully having a month to prepare for Tech's offense will be enough to give the Hawkeyes a fighting chance. I may take both teams and the over as well. It worked for me in the ACC championship game.

The 1st quarter of the Cotton Bowl just ended with no score. Maybe I should be glad I forgot to take the over.

I'm waiting to take Central Michigan (-3.5)over Troy. This line was 4, and I think it could drop further, once the degenerates wake up on Wednesday and realize there aren't any other games to bet.

I figure I have enough $$ on Texas from the preseason, with my 8-1 bet, what I don't need to take Texas(+4.5)over Alabama. I think it will serve Texas well to be the underdog, and I think it may motivate them that Mark Ingram won the Heisman. If Colt McCoy wins it I don't like Texas' chances.