Week 10

 This week all of my bets are double teases with the under. I have green bay(+9.5)/gb @PIT UNDER 44.5, PITTSBURGH(+2.5)/gb@PIT UNDER 44.5. I have tenn(+9)/tenn@TB UNDER 45, TB(+3)/tenn@TB UNDER 45. I have nyj(+5)/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5, LV+7/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5. Oh yeah, and I took car(+9)/ car@CHI UNDER 44, CHI(+3)/ car@CHI UNDER44 on Thursday, which the Bears won, 16-13, a perfect score for my bet.

As usual, I'm targeting the lowest over/unders on the board. I'm also avoiding big spreads. Dallas-NYGiants O/U is 38, but the Cowboys are favored by 17. I don't consider this game a good candidate, as Dallas could hit the over by themselves, and won't cover my tease if they win by 10 or less. Likewise, the Giants don't cover their tease if they lose by more than 23. While these extreme outcomes are still possible in evenly matched games, they are far less likely. If you do the math, you'll see that none of these lines are bigger than PIT(-3.5). This is a spot where I am considering paying more to move the teased Pittsburgh line to +3, instead of +2.5. These low-scoring, outdoor games seem to have more weird flukey events like missed extra points that make 2 or 2.5 point lines more valuable. 

I think all of my last week results were in last week's post, other than Jets-Chargers, and when I wrote it it was already evident that the Jets (and I) were well on our way to losing.

NFL Week 9

 Didn't get around to writing about the NFL this week until Monday night. Took NYJETS(+3.5) over sandiego at the last minute, and right now I'm losing that one, with the Chargers up 7-0...make that 14-0. One of those bets where you have to take the home dog getting 3 or 3.5, or stay away. I was staying away until the last minute, but three had bumped up a half-point.

Otherwise, I got tennessee(+3.5) over PITTSBURGH wrong, as the Steelers waited until the end of the game to take the lead, winning 20-16. I went against the trend of home favorites taking care of business on Thursday night, basically because I like backing Mike Vrabel as a dog, and like fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite. That and Will Levis uncorked some ridiculous deep passes the previous week vs. Atlanta, so I jumped on the rookie's hype train.

On the other hand, I nailed my "dead coach bounce" pick, as the Raiders, fresh off firing Josh Mc Daniels, throttled the NYGiants 30-6, easily covering the LAS VEGAS(-1.5)over nygiants spread. I'm a big believer in betting teams immediately after firing a coach. Many others like this angle as well, though I'm not sure if anybody else has coined "dead coach bounce" besides me. This angle seems that much more bankable when the coach in question is as hated as Mc Daniels is by his own players. Apparently the Raiders were lighting up stogies after the game like they'd won the Super Bowl, because they all were that happy to be done with him.

The only other game I bet was CINCINNATI(-2.5)over buffalo, though when the line dropped to CINCINNATI(-1.5) I bet it again. The Bengals got up by 21-7 at halftime, and held on to win by six. I also threw some $$ on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, at 14-1 at Jackpot Jesus, and at 17-1 on FanDuel. So at this point I have more on them than I do on the Dolphins at 17-1, and that's fine, because I really don't trust the Dolphins. I plan on hedging both of these, probably the Bengals vs. the Chiefs and maybe the Ravens, and the 'Fins against both of these, and probably the Bengals & Bills as well. Hopefully the 'Fins can get a top seed and a bye, so they don't have to get past too many of these teams. If you have to hedge too many times your value gets shredded.

Last week I got Panthers-Texans wrong, Saints-Colts wrong, Bengals-49ers right, Titans-Falcons right, and split on my Jags first half, Steelers final, as Jacksonville won both ends. I was wrong taking the Eagles first half, as they had to come from behind to beat Washington. I think the Eagles covered every first half for the last year & a half, until I mushed it.