Week 10

 This week all of my bets are double teases with the under. I have green bay(+9.5)/gb @PIT UNDER 44.5, PITTSBURGH(+2.5)/gb@PIT UNDER 44.5. I have tenn(+9)/tenn@TB UNDER 45, TB(+3)/tenn@TB UNDER 45. I have nyj(+5)/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5, LV+7/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5. Oh yeah, and I took car(+9)/ car@CHI UNDER 44, CHI(+3)/ car@CHI UNDER44 on Thursday, which the Bears won, 16-13, a perfect score for my bet.

As usual, I'm targeting the lowest over/unders on the board. I'm also avoiding big spreads. Dallas-NYGiants O/U is 38, but the Cowboys are favored by 17. I don't consider this game a good candidate, as Dallas could hit the over by themselves, and won't cover my tease if they win by 10 or less. Likewise, the Giants don't cover their tease if they lose by more than 23. While these extreme outcomes are still possible in evenly matched games, they are far less likely. If you do the math, you'll see that none of these lines are bigger than PIT(-3.5). This is a spot where I am considering paying more to move the teased Pittsburgh line to +3, instead of +2.5. These low-scoring, outdoor games seem to have more weird flukey events like missed extra points that make 2 or 2.5 point lines more valuable. 

I think all of my last week results were in last week's post, other than Jets-Chargers, and when I wrote it it was already evident that the Jets (and I) were well on our way to losing.