Louisville over Notre Dame, Week 5 recap, Week Six pix

 My best pick last week was one I didn't bet, as Jacksonville(+5.5) upset Buffalo in London, 25-20. The rest went worse.

I also got COLTS(+2.5) over titans right, as Indy defended their home field, winning outright, 23-16. Meanwhile the PATRIOTS(+1) didn't come close to defending their home field, losing to the saints, 34-0. My double or triple teaser of Ravens at Steelers broke even, with the Steelers & the under leg hitting, & the rest missing. Steelers, 17-10.

houston(+1.5) almost came through, losing at ATLANTA, 21-19. After that the three dogs I bet in the afternoon all put up a bit of a fight, before letting the favorites pull away. I had MINNESOTA(+3.5)over kansas city, so the Vikes lost, 27-20. I had LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia, so the Rams lost, 23-14, and I had ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati, so the Cardinals lost, 34-20. I finally bounced back with LAS VEGAS(-2.5) over green bay, as the Raiders won, 17-13. That's a lot of losing, 3-6 by my count.

I didn't feel bad about losing with Arizona, as I had resolved to fade the Bengals until Joe Burrow looked right. Since he did last week, I now have taken CINCINNATI(-2.5)over seattle. The one thing that makes me reconsider a bit is that the Seahawks are coming off their bye. Yes, we now are in that part of the season where we should pay attention to byes.

I took TENNESSEE(+4) over baltimore before realizing that this Titans "home game" is actually being played in London...or perhaps Germany. I still think the line is too big, though not as no-brainer too big as if they were playing in Nashville.

I took TAMPA BAY(+3.5) over detroit. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and since when do the Lions give points on the road? Well, if you check the odds, Detroit is currently considered more likely to win the NFC Championship than Dallas, though it took the Lions hanging 40 on Carolina, while the Cowboys gave up 40 to the 49ers to make that happen. We'll see how long that lasts. If the Cowboys find a way to lose at the Chargers and fall to 3-3 it could last for a while.

Speaking of which, I have a chance at a middle, as I have taken dallas(-1.5) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, and also have taken LACHARGERS(+2.5)over dallas. My initial thought was that the Cowboys will probably be very motivated after losing my 30-something to San Francisco, and perhaps the line has moved a bit because of this loss as well. After betting it, I learned that some of the sharps I follow love the Chargers this week, as they believe Dallas will struggle to contain the Chargers passing game now that Trevon Diggs is out, and like fading Mike McCarthy vs. Chargers OC (and former Dallas OC) Kellen Moore. Come to think of it, I do too, especially when the Chargers are coming off a bye, and Moore presumably has an extra week to come up with ways to beat his former team. Is this the Kellen Moore revenge game? Maybe not, but I believe the Cowboys replaced Moore to protect Mike McCarthy, so if I'm Moore I'd like to embarrass Mike McCarthy.

I took san francisco(-6.5)over CLEVELAND. I would have gotten -5.5, but FanDuel couldn't tell that I was in a state where gambling was allowed, even though BOTH sides of the Kentucky-Indiana border now have legal sports betting. In the last 8 hours or so I've seen this line climb from 7.5, to 8.5 to now 9.5, so apparently I've gotten a bargain, and I'm assuming DeSean Watson isn't playing. I've heard this game called a letdown spot, and even a schedule loss, but without Watson I don't see how that happens.

Haven't bet anything else yet, but here are my leans:

CHIGAGO(+3)over minnesota, arizona(+7)over LARAMS, MIAMI(-13.5)over carolina, indianapolis(+4.5)over JACKSONVILLE.