Week 3 Disintegration Recap, Week 4 Picks

Disgusting week--only won on two games, Niners over Giants, and Texans over Jags. Packers and Rams almost came through for me, but I didn't get good enough numbers. I'm moving on. The results are below.

 tennessee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND--Browns, 27-3 L

GREEN BAY(-2) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 L

GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 PUSH

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

houston (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE--Texans, 37-17, W

atlanta(+4) over DETROIT--Lions, 20-6, L

MINNESOTA (pk) over los angeles chargers--Chargers, 28-24 L

LAS VEGAS (-1) over pittsburgh--Steelers, 23-18, L

los angeles rams(+2.5) over CINCINNATI--Bengals, 19-16 L

tampa bay(+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA--Eagles, 25-11 L

AND, SAN FRANCISCO(-10.5) 30, new york giants 12, and SAN FRANCISCO(-11) 30, over new york giants 12.

Almost forgot-- won my double tease on the JETS and the under, and the pats and the under. The Pats 15-10 win was well under the actual 36.5 UNDER, as well as the teased 42.5, and the Jets could have lost by 9 or so and covered,

Too emotionally involved in the Thursday night game. GREEN BAY(+1.5) is the right side, but I just got burned fading the Lions (though that worked for me with the Seahawks). I did a double tease, with the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, I might take the Lions & under, and the Packers and over, to complete the teaser box.

I've taken kansas city(-9.5) over NYJETS. Usually I love getting points vs, the Chiefs, but after last weekend's beatdown of Chicago, we have to consider if we are at a stage of the season where KC just rolls up shitty teams. The Jets are not truly a shitty team, but a solid team with a shitty QB. Is the Jets defense good enough to keep this close? Rather than overthink this, I gave the 9.5 before it gets to 10 or 10.5.

I took miami(+3) at BUFFALO-- the wiseguys love Buffalo here, but at least I got the best of the number--mostly Buffalo is favored by 2.5. FWIW, Buffalo's home field advantage isn't particularly pronounced in September. On the flip side, Miami's sweltering heat is less pronounced in December, or whenever these teams play again.

Similarly, I took CLEVELAND(-2.5) over baltimore. The sharps like the Ravens here, but they definitely like them better at (+3), so at least I got the better of the number. This will be the biggest test of the Browns defense, as my understanding is they built this defense primarily to beat the Ravens, though since the Ravens have revamped their offense, I'm not sure which Ravens teams they were constructed to beat. In this case I also have the home team, unlike in Buffalo.

Additional bets I've made later in the week:

tampabay(+4) over NEWORLEANS: this opened at 3--I think there's value on the Bucs, especially with Winston playing QB for the Saints.

HOUSTON(+3) over pittsburgh--love the Steelers as a home dog; not so much as a road favorite.

larams(+1) at INDIANAPOLIS--this line is all over the place--you can find the Colts as a dog too.

lasvegas(+7) over LACHARGERS--line moved from 6.5 this morning--Mike Williams is out for the season, and the Raiders will probably have more fans at the game than the Chargers.

TENNESEE(+2.5) over cincinnati--Vrabel as a home dog--having said that, the Titans are ugly af to bet on.