Week One recap, Week Two bets/preview

 Week one was a weird gambling week. At about 4pm Sunday I was 6-1, but by about 8 I was 6-4, because that's how one-sided Dallas' beat-down of the Giants was. After they carted Aaron Rodgers off the field Monday night I was convinced I was skidding to 6-5, but the Jets recovered to win outright in OT, putting me at 7-4 for the week.

I'm subdividing my results for the week, to see if there is any difference between my own picks and those I picked up from my wiseguys, and for that matter, how I we would have done on the games I stayed away from because we disagreed.

The only games I felt strongly about before taking in any outside advice were lions(+5.5) over CHIEFS, BROWNS(+2.5)over bengals, and STEELERS(+2.5)over 49ers. I went 2-1 on these, with the Lions winning outright, the Browns crushing, and the Steelers getting crushed.

In the other games, Atlanta(-3.5) came through and beat Carolina by 14, though they took awhile to pull away--didn't feel great about that one.

Tampa Bay(+6) won outright at Minnesota, 20-17, and Tennessee(+3) lost but covered at New Orleans, 16-15. Mike Vrabel covered the spread, going for a field goal to close the gap to one, though this was with enough time remaining that it doesn't look like he was just trying to cover the spread. Apparently Tannehill looked horrible in that one, so I guess I feel a bit lucky.

Arizona(+7) lost but covered at Washington, 20-16. I think I failed to mention that my main reason for taking the Cards was that the C-words had the most one sided betting on them, an automatic fade.

So at that point I was 6-1, going into the late afternoon games. There, the Broncos(-3.5) gave up a late TD to lose to the Raiders, 17-16, and the Patriots(+3.5) lost to the Eagles 25-20. Towards the end of the game the Pats had a 2-point conversion called back that would have brought them within three, so maybe I got a bit unlucky there. The Pats got down early and could have rolled over like the Steelers, but they didn't.

Speaking of rolling over, the Giants lost to Dallas 40-0, embarrassing themselves in their home opener Sunday night. When Aaron Rodgers got hurt Monday night I sort of expected the Jets to roll over as well, but they came back from down 10 or so to force overtime and get the win on a long punt return. Do I feel lucky on that one? Yes. Yes I do.

I don't think I realized it going into the weekend, but I bet against all of the consensus top six teams. Does this mean I have huge balls? Perhaps. Interestingly enough, all the AFC teams (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) lost outright, while the NFC teams (49ers, Eagles and Cowboys won and covered, 2/3 of them in blowouts.

In games I didn't bet, the Ravens won and covered vs the Texans, and the Jags won and covered at the Colts. I liked the favorites in both of these games, while the syndicate boys liked the dogs. The favorites didn't pull away in either of these games until late.

This week I took seattle(+6) at DETROIT. I think this line is an overreaction to the Lions win, as well as the Seahawks loss to a Ram team that might not suck as much as we think.

One of the most favorable trends you can back is teams who lose by 10 or more as short dogs the next week. Seattle fits into this, and I think you can make a case that the Lions should be at most a 3.5 point favorite. The other team this fits is the Bears, who lost to the Packers 38-20. Right now you can get chicago(+2.5) or (+3) at TAMPA BAY. So this should be a pick, but I'm tempted to assume the Bears coaching staff is too dumb to make adjustments, so I might take the Bucs here.

Backing up to Thursday, the EAGLES line has dropped from 7 to 6 vs the vikings. This is almost certainly sharp money, given that it has hit early, but I am leaning the other way with EAGLES(-6). I believe this game was a week 2 Monday night game last year, and I got it wrong, taking the Vikings, who got stomped, 24-7. This feels pretty reactionary chasing the previous loss, even if it was a year ago, but I am down on Minnesota.

Leaning TITANS(+3) over chargers--this is sort of terrifying, because from what I've heard, Tannehill was horrible last week, and offense is almost always more impressive than defense, which is why a team that lost 36-34 to the Dolphins is favored on the road over a team that lost 16-15 to the Saints. On the other hand, I trust Mike Vrabel, while I think San Diego's coach is incompetent enough that I am choosing not to look up his name out of spite. This is either found money, or I will look like a fool on Monday.

Likewise with NEW ENGLAND(+2.5) vs miami--these two teams seem to split every year. Even when Miami sucks they win the game at home in December. I don't think the Pats suck, which makes it a little easier to believe they will find a way to throttle the scariest offense in the league. Actually on FanDuel I can get NE(+3) now...it was only +2 there yesterday. Hmm.

CINCINNATI has dropped from (-3.5) to -3 over baltimore on FanDuel. I think I will probably stay away because both these teams seem to have a bit of a malaise hanging over them right now. Cincy is off to another one of their slow starts, and the Ravens new offense doesn't seem to have worked out the kinks just yet. The bounce back from getting humiliated angle favors the Bengals, so now that I can give only three I might do that.

Now that the Rams surprised us all and beat the Seahawks, do they actually deserve to be 7.5 to 8 point dogs at home vs the 49ers? Haven't I learned my lesson betting against the 49ers? You know I love these home dogs. Leaning LARAMS(+8) over sanfrancisco.

Was leaning chiefs(-3) over JAGS, but now that the line has moved, I'm leaning JAGS(+3.5)over chiefs. This is where you turn into Neo seeing the matrix, when you start betting numbers rather than teams.

Two Monday night games this week. Leaning CAROLINA(+3)over neworleans, because home dogs. That and I watched the highlights from Panthers at Falcons, and Carolina looked better than I expected. In the other, my syndicate boys like Cleveland because they don't think Pittsburgh's offensive line can handle the Browns' front 7. On the other hand, the Steelers are one of these teams you're supposed to bet because they just got humiliated, and they are of course home dogs, so I am leaning PITTSBURGH(+2.5)over cleveland, but I may wait in hopes of getting (+3).