Why my $$ is on Porter
This is a shorter version of 8/16 fight bets, focusing on Porter-Brook--I posted this to boxingnews24.com we'll see if the publish it or not.
(For a longer, rambling version that includes my MMA picks, go to http://roqqbottom.blogspot.com/2014/08/parlaying-shawn-showtime-porter-270.html)
(If you like my opinions so much you can't wait for my next long-winded rant, you can catch my 140 character verbal jabs @Fight_Whisperer on twitter.)
Here is my breakdown of the Shawn Porter-Kell Brook fight. I am by no means a boxing expert, but I have successfully wagered on fights, relying mostly on youtube videos and Wikipedia for research. The analysis below mixes those sources with buzz and opinions I expect boxingnews24 readers will be familiar with. I never recommend a bet that I have not made myself, and I have a lot on this fight, so if you take my advice and lose, you can take solace in my losing with you.
Reach: Did you know Shawn Porter has a longer reach than Kell Brook? According to The Bleacher Report, Porter's reach is actually 1/2 inch longer than Brook's, despite his listed height being two inches shorter, and his actual height being 3 1/2 inches shorter. A half inch is basically a wash, but I bring it up because I think most fans assume Porter is at a reach disadvantage.
Brook supporters hope he can keep Porter outside with his jab. They are correct to think Porter will try to fight on the inside, but need to realize Porter can jab effectively from the outside as well. He doesn't need to fight his way past a huge reach disadvantage the way Dereck Chisora will if and when he and Tyson Fury fight again,* or even a small one, for that matter.
Speed: This is what is going to get him past Brook's defenses. If he can't do this consistently enough to get ahead on points, Porter(-270)** could be a very foolish bet. I think Brook is slower than Porter, but if he can time counterpunches effectively, Brook could conceivably negate his speed disadvantage. (After reach, this is probably the attribute least up for debate--much easier to evaluate speed with the eyeball test than power.)
Work Rate: If Porter can use his speed to consistently get inside against Brook, he'll be ahead on points. (I think Porter can also be effective from the outside. Porter prefers to fight inside, so I think he will continue to try to do this and pressure Brook unless he is effectively slowed down. If Brook successfully keeps him at bay, Brook will be ahead. If the result is somewhere in between, I expect Porter's work rate to get him ahead on the scorecards.
Activity isn't everything. Maidana out worked Floyd Mayweather, but wildly missed with enough punches that only one judge was delusional enough to think he'd kept up. From what I've seen, Porter is reasonably accurate with his punches, so I don't think this will be a problem. I haven't seen anything from Brook that makes me think he's going to make Porter miss, which brings us to...
Class: Porter is widely regarded to have fought tougher opponents than Brook. I'm not terribly interested in debating this, because I am a layman. I am only taking the word of experts that Porter has had tougher opponents, and I've heard some decent arguments that make me think his haven't been that much tougher. I'm probably more impressed with him sparring with Manny Pacquiao than with anyone he's fought, in all honesty. Sparring with Pacquiao could give you more perspective on speed, elusiveness, etc. than anyone either of these guys has fought. I think class is more up for debate than any thing else I will discuss, but I list it here because I think it is part of the speed equation that makes me think Porter will win more rounds.... On that note...
Power: The eye test tells me Porter has more of it than Brook. On the other hand, I've seen plenty of fights where the guy with less power and more reach held off his opponent for a decision. If Brook can consistently catch Porter on his way in, and slow him down, the power won't matter. If he catches him, but Porter still gets inside, Porter's inside game should at least be enough to impress the judges, whether he can hurt Brook or not.
If you look at their recent fights, Brook has more stops than Porter. I believe this goes back to the question of class. If you believe Porter has had tougher fights, this will explain the lack of recent KOs. If not, you may be able to talk yourself into Brook having better power. Again, I generally rate speed and reach above power, because shots landed take more of a toll than shots avoided.
Judges: This fight is in Carson, California. I don't know where Carson is, and unless you're from California, neither do you. In any case, it's a lot closer to Ohio than it is to Sheffield, or Leeds, or where ever Brook is from.
I'm not saying the fix is in, and I'm not saying it isn't. In case of a close fight, though, I like my guy to have a home field advantage (or be the champ--that's even better).
I could list several controversial fights where the champ, or the money favorite got a decision from the judges, but lets look at the most controversial recent decision. Canelo Alvarez over Erislandy Lara--whether or not you think Lara won, there is no way in hell he lost 117-111, as the judge from New Mexico had it. Was the fix in? I don't know, but Teddy Atlas seems to think so.
If you're a conspiracy theorist, Canelo needed to be protected so that boxing/Golden Boy could cash in in the future. I don't think Porter-Brook will draw as much attention from the powers-that-be, but we can still follow the money. Porter is getting about 3/4 of the purse, implying that he is the more valuable fighter right now. I suppose $$ that would follow Porter would find their way to the UK if Brook won. I don't think the fix is in, but tie goes to the American.
Well, that's my analysis. Since Brook does not have a reach advantage, and I gave Porter the edge on speed, work rate, class, power and judges, I think Porter should definitely be the favorite, because I expect his speed and work rate to get him ahead on points. As you may have gathered, I am somewhat skeptical of his power advantage, but if Porter can get ahead, it is Brook who will need a knockout. I don't usually bet on when a fight will end unless one fighter is such a heavy favorite that it forces me to look for more reasonable wagers, but if that is your thing, I like Porter to win by a 12 round decision, at 5/2.
I bet Porter early on at (-270) and (-290), and again at (-210) after the British money moved the line, so I think (-245) or (-250) are still decent prices. I have enough on this fight already, so I probably will not bet it again, though my inner degenerate may convince me to take Porter by decision by fight time.*** Good luck!
*Brook's fans should all be familiar with that matchup. If the message boards are any indicator they are 99% English.
**The line I initially bet. It has since fluctuated from (-290) to (-210), and is now about (-250).
***My inner degernerate convinces me to do many last minute bets that I would not recommend to anyone else.
(For a longer, rambling version that includes my MMA picks, go to http://roqqbottom.blogspot.com/2014/08/parlaying-shawn-showtime-porter-270.html)
(If you like my opinions so much you can't wait for my next long-winded rant, you can catch my 140 character verbal jabs @Fight_Whisperer on twitter.)
Here is my breakdown of the Shawn Porter-Kell Brook fight. I am by no means a boxing expert, but I have successfully wagered on fights, relying mostly on youtube videos and Wikipedia for research. The analysis below mixes those sources with buzz and opinions I expect boxingnews24 readers will be familiar with. I never recommend a bet that I have not made myself, and I have a lot on this fight, so if you take my advice and lose, you can take solace in my losing with you.
Reach: Did you know Shawn Porter has a longer reach than Kell Brook? According to The Bleacher Report, Porter's reach is actually 1/2 inch longer than Brook's, despite his listed height being two inches shorter, and his actual height being 3 1/2 inches shorter. A half inch is basically a wash, but I bring it up because I think most fans assume Porter is at a reach disadvantage.
Brook supporters hope he can keep Porter outside with his jab. They are correct to think Porter will try to fight on the inside, but need to realize Porter can jab effectively from the outside as well. He doesn't need to fight his way past a huge reach disadvantage the way Dereck Chisora will if and when he and Tyson Fury fight again,* or even a small one, for that matter.
Speed: This is what is going to get him past Brook's defenses. If he can't do this consistently enough to get ahead on points, Porter(-270)** could be a very foolish bet. I think Brook is slower than Porter, but if he can time counterpunches effectively, Brook could conceivably negate his speed disadvantage. (After reach, this is probably the attribute least up for debate--much easier to evaluate speed with the eyeball test than power.)
Work Rate: If Porter can use his speed to consistently get inside against Brook, he'll be ahead on points. (I think Porter can also be effective from the outside. Porter prefers to fight inside, so I think he will continue to try to do this and pressure Brook unless he is effectively slowed down. If Brook successfully keeps him at bay, Brook will be ahead. If the result is somewhere in between, I expect Porter's work rate to get him ahead on the scorecards.
Activity isn't everything. Maidana out worked Floyd Mayweather, but wildly missed with enough punches that only one judge was delusional enough to think he'd kept up. From what I've seen, Porter is reasonably accurate with his punches, so I don't think this will be a problem. I haven't seen anything from Brook that makes me think he's going to make Porter miss, which brings us to...
Class: Porter is widely regarded to have fought tougher opponents than Brook. I'm not terribly interested in debating this, because I am a layman. I am only taking the word of experts that Porter has had tougher opponents, and I've heard some decent arguments that make me think his haven't been that much tougher. I'm probably more impressed with him sparring with Manny Pacquiao than with anyone he's fought, in all honesty. Sparring with Pacquiao could give you more perspective on speed, elusiveness, etc. than anyone either of these guys has fought. I think class is more up for debate than any thing else I will discuss, but I list it here because I think it is part of the speed equation that makes me think Porter will win more rounds.... On that note...
Power: The eye test tells me Porter has more of it than Brook. On the other hand, I've seen plenty of fights where the guy with less power and more reach held off his opponent for a decision. If Brook can consistently catch Porter on his way in, and slow him down, the power won't matter. If he catches him, but Porter still gets inside, Porter's inside game should at least be enough to impress the judges, whether he can hurt Brook or not.
If you look at their recent fights, Brook has more stops than Porter. I believe this goes back to the question of class. If you believe Porter has had tougher fights, this will explain the lack of recent KOs. If not, you may be able to talk yourself into Brook having better power. Again, I generally rate speed and reach above power, because shots landed take more of a toll than shots avoided.
Judges: This fight is in Carson, California. I don't know where Carson is, and unless you're from California, neither do you. In any case, it's a lot closer to Ohio than it is to Sheffield, or Leeds, or where ever Brook is from.
I'm not saying the fix is in, and I'm not saying it isn't. In case of a close fight, though, I like my guy to have a home field advantage (or be the champ--that's even better).
I could list several controversial fights where the champ, or the money favorite got a decision from the judges, but lets look at the most controversial recent decision. Canelo Alvarez over Erislandy Lara--whether or not you think Lara won, there is no way in hell he lost 117-111, as the judge from New Mexico had it. Was the fix in? I don't know, but Teddy Atlas seems to think so.
If you're a conspiracy theorist, Canelo needed to be protected so that boxing/Golden Boy could cash in in the future. I don't think Porter-Brook will draw as much attention from the powers-that-be, but we can still follow the money. Porter is getting about 3/4 of the purse, implying that he is the more valuable fighter right now. I suppose $$ that would follow Porter would find their way to the UK if Brook won. I don't think the fix is in, but tie goes to the American.
Well, that's my analysis. Since Brook does not have a reach advantage, and I gave Porter the edge on speed, work rate, class, power and judges, I think Porter should definitely be the favorite, because I expect his speed and work rate to get him ahead on points. As you may have gathered, I am somewhat skeptical of his power advantage, but if Porter can get ahead, it is Brook who will need a knockout. I don't usually bet on when a fight will end unless one fighter is such a heavy favorite that it forces me to look for more reasonable wagers, but if that is your thing, I like Porter to win by a 12 round decision, at 5/2.
I bet Porter early on at (-270) and (-290), and again at (-210) after the British money moved the line, so I think (-245) or (-250) are still decent prices. I have enough on this fight already, so I probably will not bet it again, though my inner degenerate may convince me to take Porter by decision by fight time.*** Good luck!
*Brook's fans should all be familiar with that matchup. If the message boards are any indicator they are 99% English.
**The line I initially bet. It has since fluctuated from (-290) to (-210), and is now about (-250).
***My inner degernerate convinces me to do many last minute bets that I would not recommend to anyone else.
posted by roQQ | 8:42 PM
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