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Saturday, July 05, 2014

Belgium-Argentina odds

If you bet Belgium-Argentina, you can get Belgium(+.5) at (-111), or Argentina(-.5) at (-104).  If you bet the result on the money line, you can get Argentina to win at (+100), Belgium at (+350), or a draw at (+245).  While betting Argentina one way or the other are virtually the same, or only 4% apart, betting Belgium with the spread has you paying an 11% vig, whereas, if you bet equal amounts on both Belgium to win, and on the draw, the books pay you a vig.  Lets say you bet $100 on each.

$100 --> $240 if draw
$100 --> $350 if Belgium win

so

$200 --> $240        odds = (+120)

or

$200 --> $350        odds = (+175)

So, you could look at it as you have a $200 wager on Belgium to tie at (+120), with a $110 free roll. (110 being the difference between 240 and 350)  However you look at it, aren't these two wagers better than betting $222 on Belgium to win $200?

Having said all that, Argentina just scored, & lead 1-0, less than ten minutes in.  Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong.  Maybe Belgium(+.5)(-111) is just a huge sucker bet.

I suspect I am missing something, since I have noticed this same supposed discrepancy in two games in two days.  I suspect that had I been inclined to bet any underdogs earlier in the World Cup I would have found the same thing.

Perhaps I should stop looking for live dogs.  So far the favorite has won every elimination game.


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