Game 3

So far (pregame) I've bet spurs(+4.5), and UNDER 197.5, which has since dropped to 197.  I'm hoping the Spurs get off to a good start, because I want to get down on Miami, who I really expect to win, and to play even better defense at home and keep the score down.  I have about 3x as much bet on the under as on the Spurs, but intend to add bets on the total as the game progresses.

Spurs up 18-10 at the first timeout, and I got HEAT(+4.5).  Then the odds changed.   They've gone away now, but I think the Heat are now favored by 1.5, so I just basically stole 6 points.  On the other hand, I could have taken Miami(+400) for the game, which feels like an even better steal, as when the odds updated to Miami(-135) or so.

I'm a bit puzzled as to what happened.  I wonder if this happens alot when a dog gets up early, as the oddsmakers need to decide between possibly overreacting, and possibly underreacting.

SA is up 13 now, 7 min in...I wonder what the odds will be next break.

Just found out my Heat(+4.5) bet was for the first quarter, so that Heat(+400) ML no doubt was as well.  Coming out of the 2nd break, Miami is down 7, so they are a 3 away from covering, 3:20 to go in the period.

I just took UNDER 210.  I'm assuming Miami won't wait until game 4 to play defense, though to start off the Spurs were draining 80% of their shots...sick, but not sustainable.  On the other hand, SA occasionally shoots about 60%, which should get the over, and a win for them.