Blizzard of Odds

Well, California Chrome just won the Preakness, so now Rampage can win me one parlay, and Marquez and Chandler along with Rampage can win me a bigger one.

I have about $1400 of my roll that is not in play right now, as opposed to just under $6000 that is in play. Most of my open bets will close tonight, for better or worse, other than my bets on the Miami Heat to win the East, and a couple of parlays on the opening round of the World Cup.  I will attempt to run down most of these before I go get my drink on and watch the fights.

I have a parlay of Rampage(-290) with Miami over Brooklyn(-550) and San Antonio over Portland(-420).  Pays (-104).  I made this bet on May 6 in the morning, so before either series had started (both started that night).  I bet those series because they looked like sure things, and because I expected them to end around the time of this fight.  They both did.

I basically made the same bet the next day, when the Heat and Spurs were each up 1-0.  The odds had moved to Heat(-1100) and Spurs(-750).  Rampage dropped to (-270), which didn't make up for the other moves.  This bet will pay 7/10, -unless I pay 10/7.

On May 13 I parlayed Shlemenko(-460) over Ortiz with Rampage, now down to (-250).  This will pay 7/10.  Strange that this would pay the same as the above bet with the Spurs and the Heat.  I'm a bit worried about fading Ortiz because he is normally so much bigger than Shlemenko, and I'm sure he will bulk up after the weigh-in, but apparently he is washed up, having won only one fight in the last eight years.  The oddsmakers seem to think Shlemenko, who is on a 13 fight win streak, will earn a stoppage.

On that note, I also parlayed Shlemenko wins inside distance(-145) with Brooks/Chandler fight won't go 5 round distance(-260) with Rampage(-250).  I consider this a more speculative bet, as one of these fighters will probably disappoint.  This bet pays 9/4.  Interestingly, at this point Michael Chandler was such a heavy favorite over Will Brooks (10/1) that you could get the exact same odds on Chandler winning in less than five rounds as on the fight not going the distance.  If I could have gotten the same odds on Shlemenko winning by stoppage as on both he and Ortiz winning by stoppage I would have taken that bet instead.  I think you could get both of them for about (-170).

I parlayed those 3 favorites just to win their fights:  Rampage(-250), Chandler(-1000), and Shlemenko(-485) works out to pay a bit better than 4/5.  I bet considerably more on this parlay than the previous one.  Because of this bet it will be much more important for Shlemenko to win than to win by stoppage.  It sounds like he is aggressive enough that I probably can't count on him to play it safe.

Another more speculative parlay:  I have Cheick Kongo over Eric Smith UNDER 1.5(-145), with Chandler UNDER the distance(-260) and Shlemenko winning(-485).  This pays 9/4.  Arguably I should be making fewer bets on these early stoppages, but rolling them all together.  That way I would be risking less on each of them, but getting a bigger payout if they all come through.

I did the bare minimum research on Kongo, watching 2 or 3 of his fights, and wikipediaing him.  He trains -with Rampage, is French, and has one-punch knockout power.  I tried to research Eric Smith, and found NOTHING.  This makes him moderately scarier than if I found some uninspiring footage on him.  After all, there is a tiny chance he is the sports' next badass, and that he will fight Cain Velasquez in November 2015. I am assuming the oddsmakers know a little more than I do, and that the unfavorable odds on Kongo winning in the first are based on more than his power.  If not, I'm not terribly heavy on him.

I'm heavier on Kongo winning(-600), parlayed with Chandler stopping Brooks early(-260), Rampage winning(-250), and Juan Manuel Marquez beating Mike Alvarado(-270).  This pays a little better than 2/1.

I consider Marquez a pretty safe bet, as the odds on the fight going OVER 11.5 rounds is (-170).  The oddsmakers really don't expect a knockout.  If the fight goes according to plan, the more skilled boxer should win.  I don't know shit about Mike Alvarado, but if he was the more skilled boxer I expect he would be favored, or at least less of a dog.

My last bets that will be decided tonight are the parlays involving the Preakness.  Those are California Chrome(-155)/Rampage(-215), paying about 7/5, and Chrome(-155), Rampage(-215), Marquez(-260), and Chandler inside distance(-237), paying almost 4/1.  I'm a little surprised that Chandler by stoppage has come down.  Are people betting Will Brooks to go the distance?  Has news broke about Brooks' outstanding cardio?

I'm a bit less surprised the odds on Rampage have come down, since that fight will probably be the most heavily bet Belator bout, and King Mo is considered a live dog.  I just consider him less live than most do.

Since I made my last bets, Rampage moved from (-215) to (-225), and is now at (-220) on 5dimes.  I suspect the line won't move much from there, since the most recent movement feels like stabilizing moves to me.

Meanwhile, Shlemenko is down to (-420), while Kongo is up to (-750).  Chandler is up to (-1100) (despite the odds shortening on his winning by stoppage) and Marquez is now favored by (-330).

If Rampage loses, my combined bets will lose me about $1700.  I haven't tallied up what the other fights could lose me, or what I stand to win tonight.  I will give results later, as well as sum up my current bets on the Heat, and on the World Cup.