Baylor bears parts of parlays
I had CLEVELAND(-3)over buffalo, after shopping for a point I didn't need, as the Browns won, 37-24 or so. Nothing to brag about, as everyone seemed to like Cleveland this week. Today I have a massive six-team moneyline parlay going, with Louisville(-21500), Alabama(-400000), Clemson(-475), LSU(-375), South Carolina(-1650) and Baylor(-7000).
I heard a computer simulation based prognosticator say a couple of days ago that Temple had about a 20% chance of beating Louisville. If that is anywhere near being true, than any bet involving Louisville (-21500) has to be a massive sucker bet. Either way, I would put Temple's chances as closer to 5%, which works out to LOU(-20000)...I think. Anyway, I suspect anybody that gives Temple a 20% chance of winning is doing a lot of damage to their credibility.
Right now Bama-Ga State is in the 3rd quarter, with the Tide up, 38-0, and Louisville is up 24-0. Florida State, another team I considered including, is beating Maryland, 35-0. I guess Maryland scared me because they were ranked, but they won't be ranked tomorrow.
All these games combined pay $68.25 on a $100 bet. A moneyline parlay of lsu over MISSISSIPPI STATE and clemson over SYRACUSE at the moment will net you $57.14, but LSU ML has dropped to -300, while the Clemson ML has moved up to -560.
According to my calculations, the previous odds work out to LSU and Clemson winning 64.7% of the time, while the current odds give it a 63.6% chance. So basically those other four games are making you another $11, which doesn't sound like much, but is almost a 20% better payout.
Shit. Georgia State scored. 'Bama is up only 38-3....make that 45-3. Florida State is up 42-0
Louisville leads 30-0, and so far is the big disappointment of these heavy favorites, though 'Bama was favored by 54 or 56 or something.
The ML odds have shifted to LSU -290, and Baylor -3800. I therefore have parlayed the ML for LSU, Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon (-33000). Oregon is playing Colorado, and is favored by 38.5. Baylor is favored by 29 over West Virginia. I'm not sure, but I think Baylor may have started playing defense or something.
If they have, my bet on the Baylor-West Virginia OVER 70 may be in Jeopardy. Last year these teams scored 120 or so. I think the over was about 79, and they hit that in the first half, or were a score away at halftime. Something like that.
Apparently #3 Clemson is only considered to be the 18th or so best team according to the smart money. If I lose today I think Clemson or LSU will be the disappointment. Kentucky isn't beating South Carolina, no matter how out of shape Jadaveon Clowney is.
Louisville won, 30-7. I wonder if that botches Teddy Bridgewater's Heisman hopes any further. 'Bama won, 45-3. Florida State won, 63-0. Clemson JUST scored and is up 28-7.
Clemson won, 49-14. Oregon is up 29-16, closer than I'd like. LSU is up, 7-0. Baylor hasn't started yet.
Baylor just scored, on it's 3rd one-play-drive of the game, to take a 28-7 lead with 4:56 to go in the first quarter. The two teams are halfway to the OVER 1/6 of the way into the game. LSU is up 28-23 at the half. That really looks like the game that could unravel my parlay.
I won all my bets today. Here are the scores that contributed. Baylor beat West Virginia, 73-42, covering the OVER by only 45, winning outright, of course, and just covering the 29 point spread, which I didn't bet.
Mississippi State kept it interesting for a while, but ultimately lost to LSU, 52-26. Kentucky scored a bunch at the end to make me sweat a bit, but lost to South Carolina, 35-28. This was the closest my parlays came to losing. Oregon beat Colorado, 57-16. Wow.
Last week I parlayed moneylines for indy over JACKSONVILLE(-400), and DENVER over philly(-550). Indy won, 37-3, and Denver won, 52-20. These paid just under 1/2.
I also parlayed the moneylines for 'BAMA over ole miss(-630), and texas a&m over ARKANSAS(-550). These were both closer than I would have liked, 'Bama winning only 25-0, (since when does 'Bama only score 25? Since when does Ole Miss play defense?), and the Aggies winning 45-33. I also took a&m(-14) which lost, and negated more than half of my 36% parlay.
Interestingly, 'Bama was favored by 13.5, but their moneyline was more expensive than A&M, even though the Aggies had a bigger line. Hmm. This probably has something to do with the Aggies shaky defense, which may keep me from parlaying them much more this year, at least on the road.
These moneyline bets aren't very sexy, but I keep winning them, and winning is pretty sexy, so I think I'll continue to focus on them.
On that note, I have Marquez(-135)over Bradley next week. I'm not heavy yet, but I may add to my position as the fight nears. I am also figuring on taking St-Pierre(-235)over Hendricks. I expect I will go heavier on this one.
I heard a computer simulation based prognosticator say a couple of days ago that Temple had about a 20% chance of beating Louisville. If that is anywhere near being true, than any bet involving Louisville (-21500) has to be a massive sucker bet. Either way, I would put Temple's chances as closer to 5%, which works out to LOU(-20000)...I think. Anyway, I suspect anybody that gives Temple a 20% chance of winning is doing a lot of damage to their credibility.
Right now Bama-Ga State is in the 3rd quarter, with the Tide up, 38-0, and Louisville is up 24-0. Florida State, another team I considered including, is beating Maryland, 35-0. I guess Maryland scared me because they were ranked, but they won't be ranked tomorrow.
All these games combined pay $68.25 on a $100 bet. A moneyline parlay of lsu over MISSISSIPPI STATE and clemson over SYRACUSE at the moment will net you $57.14, but LSU ML has dropped to -300, while the Clemson ML has moved up to -560.
According to my calculations, the previous odds work out to LSU and Clemson winning 64.7% of the time, while the current odds give it a 63.6% chance. So basically those other four games are making you another $11, which doesn't sound like much, but is almost a 20% better payout.
Shit. Georgia State scored. 'Bama is up only 38-3....make that 45-3. Florida State is up 42-0
Louisville leads 30-0, and so far is the big disappointment of these heavy favorites, though 'Bama was favored by 54 or 56 or something.
The ML odds have shifted to LSU -290, and Baylor -3800. I therefore have parlayed the ML for LSU, Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon (-33000). Oregon is playing Colorado, and is favored by 38.5. Baylor is favored by 29 over West Virginia. I'm not sure, but I think Baylor may have started playing defense or something.
If they have, my bet on the Baylor-West Virginia OVER 70 may be in Jeopardy. Last year these teams scored 120 or so. I think the over was about 79, and they hit that in the first half, or were a score away at halftime. Something like that.
Apparently #3 Clemson is only considered to be the 18th or so best team according to the smart money. If I lose today I think Clemson or LSU will be the disappointment. Kentucky isn't beating South Carolina, no matter how out of shape Jadaveon Clowney is.
Louisville won, 30-7. I wonder if that botches Teddy Bridgewater's Heisman hopes any further. 'Bama won, 45-3. Florida State won, 63-0. Clemson JUST scored and is up 28-7.
Clemson won, 49-14. Oregon is up 29-16, closer than I'd like. LSU is up, 7-0. Baylor hasn't started yet.
Baylor just scored, on it's 3rd one-play-drive of the game, to take a 28-7 lead with 4:56 to go in the first quarter. The two teams are halfway to the OVER 1/6 of the way into the game. LSU is up 28-23 at the half. That really looks like the game that could unravel my parlay.
I won all my bets today. Here are the scores that contributed. Baylor beat West Virginia, 73-42, covering the OVER by only 45, winning outright, of course, and just covering the 29 point spread, which I didn't bet.
Mississippi State kept it interesting for a while, but ultimately lost to LSU, 52-26. Kentucky scored a bunch at the end to make me sweat a bit, but lost to South Carolina, 35-28. This was the closest my parlays came to losing. Oregon beat Colorado, 57-16. Wow.
Last week I parlayed moneylines for indy over JACKSONVILLE(-400), and DENVER over philly(-550). Indy won, 37-3, and Denver won, 52-20. These paid just under 1/2.
I also parlayed the moneylines for 'BAMA over ole miss(-630), and texas a&m over ARKANSAS(-550). These were both closer than I would have liked, 'Bama winning only 25-0, (since when does 'Bama only score 25? Since when does Ole Miss play defense?), and the Aggies winning 45-33. I also took a&m(-14) which lost, and negated more than half of my 36% parlay.
Interestingly, 'Bama was favored by 13.5, but their moneyline was more expensive than A&M, even though the Aggies had a bigger line. Hmm. This probably has something to do with the Aggies shaky defense, which may keep me from parlaying them much more this year, at least on the road.
These moneyline bets aren't very sexy, but I keep winning them, and winning is pretty sexy, so I think I'll continue to focus on them.
On that note, I have Marquez(-135)over Bradley next week. I'm not heavy yet, but I may add to my position as the fight nears. I am also figuring on taking St-Pierre(-235)over Hendricks. I expect I will go heavier on this one.
posted by roQQ | 10:00 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home