Picks...and Fumbles!

The network is down in Afghanistan right now, which means no football! Fucking bullshit. I have a gamecast open for the first game. Here are my picks:

SANFRANCISCO(+3.5)over neworleans

denver(+13.5)over NEWENGLAND

houston(+7.5)over BALTIMORE

GREENBAY(-7.5)over newyork

Other than the Pats game, where I don't really care about the outcome, I am rooting against all my picks. Tebow winning again would be fun for the unintentional comedy of it, but I don't really want to convert to Tebowism and start worrying about the rapture if he goes all the way. Call me selfish. On the other hand, I can't bring myself to root for any team that plays defense as badly as the Pats. Other than the Saints, that is.

Speaking of the Saints, they are down 14-0, in what is turning into a turnover fest...except the 'Niners haven't returned the favor. After the last score, the gamecast seemed to think New Orleans fumbled the kickoff, but recovered it, but now it's SF ball, so apparently they didn't. This is getting ugly. At least it is making me look like a genius.

I know the Ravens are capable of destroying opponents at home, but I can't bring myself to give more than seven points to a team playing against Joe Flacco. I've heard that Ravens(-1.5), Packers (-1.5) will be a popular tease, but I think I would rather go Packers(-1), Pats(-7). I know nobody is supposed to be able to run on the Ravens, and they stopped Houston before, but every time I watch the Texans play, that running game seems unstoppable.

The 'Niners settled for a field goal. Three touchdowns and the Saints cover. Three touchdowns and a David Akers field goal, and the 'Niners cover but lose.

Right now the last play is under review. It looks like the Saints may have lost a 3rd fumble, along with one Brees pick. Four turnovers in under 18 minutes is no way to go through life.

Finally. The Saints retain possession. Lets at least keep this interesting.

My fantasy tight end just scored. JIMMY GRAHAM! 17-7.

I'd love to see the Giants upset the Packers, but 7.5 sounds reasonable. Eli is capable of keeping the Giants in a shootout, and the D-line is capable of getting to Rodgers, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Go back and watch some 2007 Packers and see how much better the 2011 Rodgers is than the 2007 Favre. If you don't get to Rodgers, you are toast. Six point toast? Maybe, but I'll lay the 7.5.

I went 3-1 last week. I was right on the Texans, Giants, and Broncos, and wrong on the Lions, though an errant whistle cost the Lions an early 21-7 lead. The Lions would probably have more trouble holding a 21-7 lead than the 'Niners will have holding a 17-7 lead, but still.

Speaking of which, the 'Niners just punted. I need another Akers field goal to feel good about my pick. I get nervous every time the Saints get the ball back.

17-14, on a 25 yard pass to Colston. Can the 'Niners burn 4:09 and go into halftime with a lead? Brees is 20/25 for 188 yards. Makes you wonder what the score would be if the Saints hadn't already committed three turnovers.

Second half, and the 'Niners just got a field goal. Needless to say, a six point lead is GREAT for my pick...especially if I still want the saints to win.

The big gain on the drive was a 57 yard punt, five yard Darren Sproles return, Darren Sproles fumble. Other than that, they gained 24 yards on eight plays.

Insanity. More points scored in the last four minutes than in either half. My worry when the Niners got down close was that tehy would force OT, and the Saints would end up winning by four (new rules!) or six. Instead Vernon Davis gets his second TD, and the Niners win by four. Something tells me they'll have a rough time of it next week if they don't get five turnovers, but hey--the Packers D sucks. I'm going to go look for a TV. I should have had one for that game.

Still no TV, and New England is up 35-7 at halftime. I think I'm going back to bed.

Late Playoff picks

I'm stuck in Kuwait, and haven't had internet since yesterday morning, so I didn't get my playoff picks out on time. I'm also rusty, since I haven't been able to bet all year, so you probably don't want them anyway.

The internet here is so ungodly slow that I couldn't even get my Falcons at Giants pick in on time. It's still 0-0, six minutes and 4 punts into the game. NYGIANTS(-2.5)over atlanta. I was already leaning toward the home team, but on 5dimes.com, you can actually give less than 3. They have enticing spreads there all the time, which is why this is the site I tried to open an account on earlier in the season...in fact, I HAVE an account there, it's just too much of a pain to put $$ in it from Afghanistan. When I get back, I will bet here, and so should you. The only other thing worth considering would be to take NY(-2.5), and atl(+3). If you could get atl(+3.5), this would be my recommendation.

Backing up, I had HOUSTON(-3)over cincinnati. Basically a fantasy homer pick, since Arian Foster and Andre Johnson came up big in fantasy for me last year. Along with that, Houston's running game is usually downright scary. In fact, it may be the scariest thing in the league this year, after the Packers, Saints and Patriots' passing attacks. Of course, this one is over, Texans, 31-10. And that running game was downright scary. Interestingly, to get to the Super Bowl, the Texans must face one or both of the defenses capable of shutting them down (Baltimore and possibly Pittsburgh), or one of the passing games capable or running the score up enough to negate said running game (New England)...unless Tim Tebow beats both the Steelers and Patriots. If they get to the Super Bowl, they will probably need to beat one more of these scary passing games (Green Bay or New Orleans) or possibly the only other team capable of stopping their running game (San Francisco). I guess I'm still not crazy about Houston's chances, much as I LOVE that running game.

In both an actual and fantasy homer pick, I had detroit(+10.5)over NEW ORLEANS. How homer? In addition to being a Honolulu blue blooded Lions fan, I had Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best last year, and Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Titus Young, and Matthew Stafford this year. Detroit almost got me the back-door cover everyone was talking about, when they closed to within 38-28 in the 4th quarter, but the Saints extended their lead to 45-28 for the front-door(?) cover. At the end of the game, Drew Brees was downing the ball near the Lions goal line, so New Orleans could have blown the door off the hinges and hung 50. I usually don't have to worry about this level of irrationality from my picks, as the Lions usually do me a favor and miss them.

Atlanta has gotten Eli Manning to illegally ground the ball in the end zone for a safety, and the Falcons are driving, up 2-0, and up 4.5 on my small as possible spread. If the Giants get their shit together, this smells like a game Eli brings them back to win by...2. 21-19, for instance. That would suck.

I'm taking DENVER(+9)over pittsburgh. I don't trust the Broncos to score, but I don't exactly trust the Steelers to score either. I see this one ending up 13-7, or 16-10. Could it end up 20-3? Sure it could, but give me the points. I know everybody would rather hear hyperbole about Tebow sucking, or miracles, but I think a tight, low scoring game is just as likely.

Looks like the internet here sucks enough that I can't publish, either. Fucking bullshit. Giants just scored...7-2. The semi-mouthy Falcons fans near me are shutting the fuck up...for now.

Jets-Broncos game diary / Teblowin' in the wind

I got up at 6 a.m. to watch the Teblowing. It's Friday morning in Afghanistan, so it's Thursday night in America, and we are a week before Thanksgiving, so Thursday Night Football is part of the NFL landscape the rest of the way.

The Jets are in Denver for the game, and with their past record when travelling west being less than stellar (see their recent loss at Oakland) the chances of some Teblowing are better than you might think.

What is Teblowing? Well, Tebowing is when you drop to your knees in prayer at relatively random moments. I say relatively, because these moments are not random to Timmy T.--but they would be random to his peers.

If you take any of it seriously, Tebow's stance makes sense. Lots of players give a prayer of thanks after they score. By then it's too late. Why not pray while the outcome is still in doubt? Of course, Tebowing as a celebration, like Lions players did three weeks ago after sacking Tebow, is not really praying, and some went as far as to say the Lions attacked Tebow's religious freedom &/or beliefs.

Former Indiana Pacer Jalen Rose countered this, claiming that players mocking Tebow would ultimately make "Prayer Tebow" iconic the way "Air Jordan" is. Something like that. Maybe Rose can help him market a new set of knee pads every year. Or maybe Rose was just sticking up for the Lions. He is a Michigan guy, after all.

Anyway, Tebowing is taken. That's why we need Teblowing, to describe a two for eight passing performance that still results in a gritty win.

Does it have to be a gritty win? Well, when you run the ball 56 times in a game, it will probably be a gritty win...or a gritty loss. Very gritty. Especially if the field is muddy.

The third quarter is winding down, and this game is becoming more and more Teblowish as it goes on. Tebow started out four out of five passing, but has since gone two for seven, for a current total of six for twelve for 69 yards. A full Teblow requires sub-50% pass completions.

A pass to the sidelines just fell incomplete. Six of 13, and we're in business.

Pass out of bounds. Six of 14, and the Broncos punt.

It was 3-3 at halftime, and in the third quarter the Jets took a 10-3 lead on a fumble recovery on first and goal. That score held up until Mark Sanchez threw a pick-six that knotted the score at ten. The full Teblow requires that the Broncos win, though Denver is bad enough that I'd consider partial credit for keeping a game close where the opposition is favored by 13 or 14. Close losses won't help the Tebow legend, however. Teblowing is about WINNING. Tebow is a WINNER...who blows...most of the time.

Six of 15, on a pass WAY out of bounds. We're in TEBLOW territory now. At this point Tim can win the game with a big play, and still stay comfortably below 50%. NICE. Not this drive, though. That was third down.

They just came back from a TV timeout to show a bevy of buxom Bronco cheer-babes. Too bad Black Francis isn't here. He would appreciate this, but he needs his beauty rest.

It's the fourth quarter now, and Tebow has only run the ball twice for 11 yards. This is not very Tebow-like, but I'm not docking him Teblow points for this. While it is well known that Timmy makes up for his shoddy passing with his legs, as long as he has a shitty passing day but still wins, the Teblowing is in effect. I don't care if he rode big defensive plays to victory.

The Jets just kicked a field goal, and lead, 13-10. This hurts from a Teblowing standpoint, unless, of course, the Broncos come back. Are come-from-behind victories and last-minute heroics part of Teblwoing? You know it!

Last week I went 1-2. I was right with Houston over Tampa Bay, and wrong with Buffalo over Dallas (way wrong) and with KC over Denver. This week, I'm stayed away from betting for or against Denver, so I can sit back and enjoy some Teblowing. Teblwoing isn't about money, it's about the love of the game.

Frank just walked in, and informed me that he saw the Bronco Cheer-babes on the TV in his room. How conveeeeeeeeeeenient! I considered testing his loyalty to the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders, but I was too in awe of the Bronkettes to get the words out. Tongue-tied, by God.

Timmy just ran for 15 yards on an option play on 2nd and 2 from his own 11. This more than doubles his running total.

Pass complete for 9 yards. There are only five minutes remaining, so Denver needs a game winning drive. On the other hand, this gets him closer to the dreaded 50%.

Three runs, all by Tebow, and the Broncos are over midfield. Win it with your legs, Timmy! That's how you Teblow!

Third and 4 form the 20....Tebow rolls left, tucks it in*, has the first down...he goes all the way! TOUCHDOWN! Thar' she Teblows! The full Teblow is on. Nine out of 20, and a lead. Tim is in the end zone on a knee, visibly praying out loud, about two feet from a video camera.

After a futile Hail Mary from Sanchez, game over for the Jets. Brian Dawkins leads a prayer circle on the field, as he and Tebow hold hands with a bunch of Broncos, and at least one Jet. Shades of Penn State-Nebraska, though without the creepy context...as far as we know.

*I saw the instant replay, and Tebow didn't tuck in the ball in until at least five yards past the line of scrimmage. Look for Cortland Finnegan or some other pint sized corner to knock the ball loose later in the season.

This week I like cincinnati(+7)0ver BALTIMORE. The Ravens may deserve to be favored at home, but why so much? Sure, they're capable of blowing out their opponents, but they're also capable of losing. To Seattle. And Jacksonville. And Tennessee. Cincy, on the other hand, is apparently the most consistent team in the NFL, though the second most consistent team (Green Bay) happens to win more consistently. I can't find the article claiming this, so I can't give you the link to it. The article also said that Baltimore was one of, if not the most inconsistent team in the league. Give me consistent, and give me the points.

Why so much? A.J. Green is injured. Mystery solved. I still like the Bengals to man up and lose by 3. This is a divisional game, last time I checked.

This may be less of a bargain than Cincy, but I love CHICAGO(-3.5)over sandiego. This game opened at 4, so apparently enough people like the Chargers to lower the line, but I am not one of them. The only big weakness for the Bears is their shoddy wide receivers. In theory the Chargers are loaded, but they don't seem to play that way at all. They are going East two time zones as well, though this is a 4:00 game, so at least it's not before their wakey-wakey time, but that may be the nicest thing I can say about them right now. Have I mentioned that San Diego is one of the worst special teams teams in the league? Do I need to remind you about Devin Hester? I could try to find out about the Chargers' pass rush, but I'm feeling lazy, and Chicago has been much better protecting Jay Cutler lately, so I'm not going to bother. If you want to talk yourself out of this pick do your own research.

I think my blood pressure just spiked. I need to calm down.

If you jumped on it early, you could have had NYGIANTS(-3)over philadelphia, but at this point, it looks like you are stuck giving 4.5. I'm not sure I can recommend this, since these teams can both be maddeningly inconsistent, but it looks like Michael Vick isn't playing. I picked this game when it was NYGIANTS(-4)over philadelphia. Sorry for leaving you all behind, though maybe not as sorry as I'll be if the Eagles lose by 3. For some reason, I feel like this game will not be close. Shame and humiliation feel like they are in the cards for one of these teams...maybe next week shame and humiliation for both of them. I haven't even checked the schedule, but the Giants schedule is a bitch the rest of the way.

The Bronco game went just about perfectly for me. Tim was gracious enough to give us an example of Teblowing, demonstrating exactly why we need the term. I would have preferred fewer pass completions, but Timmy was clutch, and many of his incompletions were awful throws. So were many of his completions. His receivers were diving all ofver the place, but even their heroic catches couldn't make him look good. I wonder why the Broncos didn't run him sooner, or more often. Their game plan put the Teblowing in jeopardy, but it all worked out in the end.

If the Raiders lose this week, Denver will be in a tie for first in the AFC West. Maybe a 3 or 4 way tie, but still--a tie for first. Who'da thunkit?

If you think Teblowing is crass and tasteless, wait til I crack on Penn State. Too soon? It's only a matter of time. Laughter is the best medicine...except for Preparation-H.

Knee high boots/The left hand of God

I was walking down Disney with Black Francis a couple of days ago when I clock a pair of black knee-high boots walking the opposite way. I point them out to Frank (of course) and by extension, point out the woman wearing them. Not bad. Aging reasonably well. Russian, if I had to guess.

Yes ladies, if you want to get noticed, knee high leather boots is one way to pull this off. Not that there aren't drawbacks.

"I can just imagine her, in those boots, standing under a street lamp, with a sax playing in the background," I say.

"Holy shit!"

"What?"

"I just got this image, she's walking along next to a brick wall. There's grafitti on the wall, and after that are shops lit by neon signs, that say 'Checks Cashed,' and 'E-Z Pawn'. Steam rises up from a sewer grate. She has a cigarette, too much makeup, and huge, teased up, can-of-hairspray 80's hair. The cars that drive by are all either taxis or pimpmobiles about 10 years older than her hair. The street reeks of stale urine and Chinese food, maybe some weed."

"Whoa! You got all that from boots, a streetlamp, and a sax?"

"Mostly it was the sax."

Frank has seen the same crappy 80's B movies that I have, where a Tom Berringer clone plays a dirty cop with a stripper girlfriend, balancing his alcoholism and vigilante impulses against his need to keep his detective job within the corrupt NYPD, all while tracking down a serial-killer who targets streetwalkers. The saxophone had invoked all of these memories of pre-Giuliani, crime-ridden New York in one fell swoop.

The saxophone got used enough on movie soundtracks back then that it lives on today as a signature, a certain audio cliche....shorthand for the seamy underbelly of the American metropolis. In a similar vein, pastel sportcoats and no socks are evoked by the Miami Vice Soundtrack...or by crappy Glenn Frey singles. I think some of these had saxophones too, and this is no coincidence.

Sometimes football works this way. When you hear Steelers-Ravens, you expect these two teams to try to kill each other. Somebody's going to the hospital, and somebody's going to pay a fine. Maybe alot of somebodys. The Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith lightning bolt that won the game for the Ravens changed nothing.

Of course, sometimes our memories of past glory fool us. At the beginning of the season it looked as though the Pittsburgh defense was becoming old and slow. Whether or not this is true, at this point we can safely say that the Steelers are one of the few teams left in the league that is willing to man up, clock somebody, and pay a fine or two if that's what it takes to win. In fact, I think they'd rather do that rather than win, if they had to choose. If you suspect that I admire this, you are probably on to something.

Of course, the Ravens are one of the other teams we can say this about, and I wasn't sorry to see them win, despite my PITTSBURGH(-3.5)over baltimore pick, which I was winning until the final :08 or so.

In the game I was too scared to pick, Denver beat Oakland, 38-24, keeping the "Does Tim Tebow suck, or not?" debate alive for at least another week. Of course, this is one more phony debate concocted by the sports media to keep us consuming their nonsense 24/7, but it's one that I've enjoyed, so far. I'm a little bit less crazy about the debate as to whether "Tebowing" is an attack on Timmy's religion. I'm inclined to agree with Detroit defensve end Cliff Avril, who said that if you wear your religion on your sleeve, Ndamakong Suh will try to rip your arm off, beat you with it, then drive over to Roger Goodell's house with the arm on ice in the trunk of his Chrysler, and sign Roger a $75,000 check with your arterial blood.

That's not what he said? Oh.

Tim Tebow is the complete opposite of the saxophone. Much of the animosity towards him right now is his uncanny ability to defy easy categorization. He seems crummy most of the time, yet he manages to win, at least some of the time, which is more than it seems like he ought to.

If Tebow were still in college, we wouldn't have such a hard time categorizing him. This goes double for high school. What Tebow does is normal there. Running quarterbacks are everywhere...until you get to the pros. It's just not supposed to be possible to win in the NFL with his skill set. He's like some new music that the old folks don't get. And he makes it a pain in the ass to handicap games.

In the other games I picked last week, BUFFALO(-1.5) lost to the Jets, 27-11, san francisco(-3.5) beat WASHINGTON, 19-11, tampa bay(+8) lost and failed to cover at NEW ORLEANS, 27-16. Watching that game I found out that the Bucs' run defense is horrible. The nygiants(+9) won outright at NEW ENGLAND, 24-20, and green bay(-4) beat SAN DIEGO, 45-38. The Chargers had to score late to get a final score this close. chicago(+7) beat PHILADELPHIA, 26-20, so I went 4-3. I'll take it.

We have some prime examples in this mix of teams who used to play defense, but at this point must resort to scoring 35-40 per game, taking advantage of rules protecting quarterbacks and receivers going over the middle. The Pats paid the price for this approach for the second week in a row, while the Packers got away with it to the tune of 8-0. I consider it nearly a moral imperative to root against teams who don't play defense, but I won't be too surprised if the Packers manage to get away with it. They've got one sick passing game.

Is the bloom off Buffalo's proverbial rose? They got their asses kicked by the Jets at home last week, and I'm not too optimistic about their chances in Dallas. But six points? I think I have to take buffalo(+6)over DALLAS, though I haven't decided yet. I was hoping for a move to seven, but the line is down to 5.5. I still like Buffalo +5.5...it's not as though Dallas has been blowing anybody out. Most of their games are pretty close. This game gives me a chance to ask Frank if Ryan Fitzpatrick is Tony Romo with a beard, or it did until Fitz shaved. Maybe he has a Samson complex. This question will be much more fun to ask if the Bills win. Maybe if they do he'll start another beard. Lets do this. buffalo(+5.5)over DALLAS.

I feel more strongly about houston(-3) over TAMPA BAY. This feels a bit like a trap game, but the Bucs just showed that they were incapable of stopping the run, vs. Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory. Arian Foster and Ben Tate could tear the Bucs a new asshole, then run through it for 25 yards a pop. I'm still concerned that the Texan defense might be a fraud, but I don't feel like this is the week we find out.

Chicago's win at Philly has moved the line vs. the visiting Lions from Bears by 1 to bears by 3, and I think this is fair. Detroit's running game has disappeared since the last time these two played, and the Bears seem to have figured out how to protect Jay Cutler since then as well. I like the Lions chances to get to Cutler a bit more than Philly's, but I also like Matt Forte's chances of going off quite a bit, since Frank Gore and Michael Turner have exposed some holes in Detroit's defense. You could hope for some stupidity from Mike Martz, but right now things are going pretty well for the Bears, and he probably deserves some of the credit. I'm not betting this game, and as a Lions fan, I consider my advice biased and suspect, but this game deserves mentioning, so there you go.

Has Miami's surprise win at Kansas City earned them some respect? The 1-7 Dolphins are favored by 4 at home (where they haven't won in about a year and a half) over Washington. I suppose this line is at least half DISrespect for the Redskins. Four seems a bit generous, and it seems crazy to bet games like this, but if I did it would probably be on the 'Fins.

Speaking of crazy, do you want to give three points vs. Tim Tebow? KC is, fresh off their 27-3 drubbing at the hands of the aforementioned Dolphins. If anything would lead to some value on the Chiefs, that would be it, so maybe KANSASCITY(-3)over denver is worth a shot. You'd think that the Arrowhead crowd would be loud enough to get Tebow to make some mistakes, but something tells me he'll just pull the ball down and run it if he couldn't audible, and this is Timmy at his most dangerous.

In the end, I think I take the motivation through humiliation that the Chiefs earned the hard way. It doesn't hurt that they have a better defense, and a great home field advantage, but my feeling is they will take Denver far more seriously this week than they took Miami last week. Am I still scared to fade Tebow? Sure, but that doesn't mean it's not the right play.

I almost forgot. Apparently you can bet on who will be the next lucky guy to bone Kim Kardashian. Here are the odds, since you need to know. I'm not sure what exactly constitutes a win, though, so buyer beware.

Blake Griffin (+500) 82 games = more exposure for reality stars...too bad there's no NBA season.

Kanye West (+800)

Reggie Bush (+1,000) Does his recently improved play make him more or less likely to get with Kim?

Ryan Reynolds (+1,000)

Usher (+1,200)

Derek Jeter (+1,400) His body count rivals his hit count.

Chargers mojo deprived

Sometime between the Cowboys' atrocious loss to the Eagles and the Halloween Monday Night game, I asked Black Francis if he'd rather see San Diego implode during the regular season and somehow lose their playoff spot to the Chiefs or Raiders, or see them cruise to a two seed, then choke away their home field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.

Frank mumbled back something incoherent as he choked down some Tribulus and asked me if I wanted any. I think he was still recovering from the latest Dallas debacle.

"It'll help your mojo, bro!"

Who could pass that up? The powdered capsules were thrown into a package of supplements Frank had mail-ordered. When you order enough protein, creatine, HGH, etc, male-enhancement is just part of the, er...package. I digress.

Why do I hate the Chargers? Hate is too strong of a word, but I must admit I enjoy watching them lose. There is something comforting about choke-artists...as long as you aren't rooting for them. I may not be able to set my watch to the Charger choke, but I know it's coming. Whether they die by a thousand tiny cuts (or 7 to 9 regular season losses, see 2010, 2005) or in a home playoff game shocker (2009, 2006, 2004), ultimately their fate is total humiliation.* In the name of full disclosure, San Diego managed to win two playoff games in 2007, and one more in 2008... before losing to the unbeaten Pats, and the Super Bowl bound Steelers. I guess not total humiliation.

Monday's 23-20 OT loss to the Chiefs may not indicate what is in store for the Chargers the rest of the season (doom and disappointment), but it sure feels that way. San Diego has been shaky all year. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert take turns getting hurt, tight end Antonio Gates has missed most of the season, and quarterback Phillip Rivers is shooting for some kind of interception record. This game just further exposed the shakiness. Have I mentioned that Norv Turner is still their head coach? Norv Turner is still their head coach.

In all likelihood, the Chargers probably fall somewhere in between my two scenarios, limping to a 10-6 record and a 3 or 4 seed. At that point, I'd probably pick them to lose to the Ravens or Steelers, but possibly beat the Jets or Bills...or Bengals. If they're still hanging around the next week, I'll almost certainly pick against them, unless they give me some really good reasons not to.

I probably wouldn't have had as much fun rooting against the Chargers were I not holed up in a country where bettting on sports is illegal. (Afghanistan, not America.) If I'd been in the U.S., where sports betting is illegal, but is also considerably easier to do, I'd probably have some $$ on San Diego to win their division, since the AFC West has been notoriously weak, and since they seemed like a shoe-in.

On the other hand, that wouldn't have stopped me from betting CHIEFS(+3)over chargers, so maybe I'd have had even more fun. At least it would have made up for cowboys(+3.5)over EAGLES. That game didn't go quite as well. I was much closer to going 0-2 than 2-0 this week. Of course, if I was somewhere it was easier to gamble, I would have had more than two picks. It's much harder to stay motivated when you can't bet.

All this is to say that I am pretty rusty right now, and that you probably shouldn't take my gambling advice, aside from the part where I tell you not to take my gambling advice. Having said that, here is my week nine gambling advice. Recommendations are in bold print.

I'm way more excited about Denver at Oakland than I should be. The Broncos are terrible, and the Raiders have semi-retired Carson Palmer at quarterback and recently injured Daren McFadden at running back. This makes the game about impossible to handicap, despite which I managed to guess the pointspread within one point. The line is Oakland(-7) and I guessed (-6). My initial assumtion was that this meant McFadden would play, but it's possible that Vegas just thinks Tim Tebow sucks that badly.

Last week the press tried to hype Lions at Broncos as good (the genuflecting Tim Tebow) vs. evil (dirty Ndamakong Suh). This is silly, but as a long-suffering Lions fan, I relish the prospect of the Lions as evil, intimidating bullies, rather than perrennial doormats. Detroit's evil antics vs. Denver included repeated sacks of Tebow, at least one of which was followed by a "Tebow." Ever since Timmy was seen on the ground praying for an accurate field goal attempt at the end of the Dolphin game, random, inexplicable prayer has been dubbed a "Tebow," and the Lions made sure to mix this into their sack celebrations.

Thankfully, the Lions have a bye this week, so you don't need to listen to me prattle on about them...for now. Not that I shouldn't celebrate a couple of winning months, after five decades of futility or anything, but this week the Broncos go to Oakland, and the Raiders are a slam dunk if the media want to keep this good vs. evil thing alive. They pretty much had a monopoly on evil for a while.

The other big storyline is the debate between those who think Tebow sucks, and those who don't watch the games. I feel like the Broncos need to win this one to keep the debate alive. Or lose by less than 38 points.

Of course, there are some things Timmy does quite well, like running...or praying...sometimes even winning, and rather dramatically at that. These just aren't typical QB measurables, like throwing for big yards and a high completion percentage.

You'll hear people talk about a quarterback's intangibles when they can't figure out how he wins, despite his evident lack of talent. I think we need another word for Timmy, though. How about "anti-tangibles"? Anti-tangibles would be what helps Timmy win despite his very tangible shortcomings. Those things we can put our finger on, like his incredibly slow wind up, his terrible mechanics, and his inaccuracy. If you'd like another example, I think Big Ben had some anti-tangibles going in that Super Bowl win over the Seahawks. Check his stat line from that game if you don't remember watching it.

Anyway, I'm too scared to bet this game if I could, but I think the NFL will be happier if Tebow wins. Not that they would rig games or anything.... broncos(+8)over OAKLAND (yeah, the line moved in the last bit.) Don't bet this game, especially if you don't know who is playing for the Raiders, but not even God gives Tim Tebow 8 points.

What am I saying? Of course he does...especially if Darren McFadden plays. Lets move on.

BUFFALO(-1.5)over nyjets. I probably would bet this one, though off a bye Rex Ryan may have some interesting wrinkles for his team. The Jets probably should be a better team than the Bills, but are they right now? Wagers on this week's games aren't settled according to who will be better seven months from now. Just figure out who is better now, or maybe seven days from now.

san francisco(-3.5)over WASHINGTON. Last year everyone kept pointing at the 'Niners as the talented team who could break out at any time. This year they are breaking out. Hopefully you didn't blow too much betting against them last year.

On the other hand, living in the moment when gambling has it's limitations as well. Can you believe the Redskins were the money favorite to win the NFC East within the last month? Me neither. Their ultimate collapse is inherently more inevitable, because it will happen much sooner--in a given year, that is. This year it's already happening.

Are the Redskins so bad they get points at home from West Coast teams? Um...pretty much!

PITTSBURGH(-3.5)over baltimore. The Ravens took it upon themselves to run up the score on the Steelers opening day. The betting public loves Pittsburgh to dominate the rematch, and so do I, though if you wanted to argue that the Steelers will have a big letdown after a tough win over the Patriots, I might buy it....No I wouldn't. This is Steelers-Ravens. Both of these teams know they will be in a dogfight.

tampa bay(+8)over NEW ORLEANS The Bucs have played the Saints tough of late, and New Orleans can play some pretty crappy games for such a good team. Their loss to the Rams last week makes me more inclined to understand how they were seven point dogs to the Colts back in the Super Bowl, a line I strongly disagreed with at the time. Find out if LGBT is healthy though before you risk any coin.**

nygiants(+9)over NEWENGLAND. The Pats tend to torch whoever they play coming off a loss, but I can't give points like that when my defense is as bad as the Pats. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham will run wild in the Pat secondary. I'd take my chances on the Giants here. You'll probably want to know Ahmad Bradshaw's health before you bet this one though.

green bay(-4)over SAN DIEGO. As long as the Chargers continue to play like shit, this line is reasonable. And I wouldn't feel right taking the Chargers this soon after talking all that trash. Not when I can ride their losing streak to the bottom.

On the other hand, San Diego is capable of staying with a team like the Packers (their talent, after all, is what makes their ultimate failures so enticing and epic), and the Packers have a history of letting teams back into game. I don't like to pick teams based on potential, though.

chicago(+7)over PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are among the most schizoid teams in the league right now. I have no idea if they will come to play, or not. I don't think the Eagles can really stop Matt Forte, but I expect they will beat the crap out of Jay Cutler, and this could lead to mistakes. Mistakes worse than dumping Kristen Cavallari? Perhaps. Mistakes worse than taking her back? Probably. In fact, I recommend you tread extremely lightly when even considering betting a quarterback with a reality show girlfriend. QB needs a clear head. That means no reality skanks, and no Tribulus, at least not without a doctor's supervision.

*Black Francis enjoys the Chargers humiliation because it makes him feel better about being a Cowboys fan.

**LaGarrette Blount, not Lesbian-Gay-Bisexual and Transgender. If BenJarvis Green-Ellis can be BJGE, or the Law Firm, Blount needs a catchy nickname too. As for it being gay-friendly, why the hell not? Welcome to the 21st Century.

I just miss pick'em week 3 crown

I didn't pick any games vs. the spread this week, mainly because my Chargers and Bears picks last week went wrong.

On the other hand, I'm tied for first in the pick'em pool I'm in, with the $$ riding on the outcome of the Washington at Dallas Monday night. If Dallas wins, and 40 or more points are scored, I win the whole pool. Right now it is 6-6 with the first half winding down, and I need some touchdowns. The guy I'm tied with & I both have Dallas for this game. The tiebreaker is the total, and I have 45 while he went 34, so if Dallas wins and the score is 39 or less, he wins. If it's 40 or more, the score is closer to 45, and I win the whole thing.

It's 9-9 at the half.

If Dallas loses, me and the guy I'm tied with fall back into a 5-way tie with three guys who took the Redskins. One of them has the total at 47, one at 38, and Joe Holcombe, who ran one of the fantasy leagues I played in last year, has 45, same as me. In that case, 47 or more goes to one guy, 46 puts three of us in a tie, 45 down to 42 ties me and Joe, and 41 or less goes to the other guy.

Dallas won, 18-16. The other guy hit the number exactly. Pretty damn pathetic offensive performance from both teams. I think there's a decent chance the Lions will be favored next week at Dallas. The Cowboys looked like shit.

The spread moved down from 6.5 or so to 3.5 by game time. If I was able to bet I would have been all over 'Skins(+6.5) vs. the banged up Cowboys.

Week two lines

The Week 2 lines are out. Black Francis and I guessed the lines yesterday. Lets see how we did.

kansas city at DETROIT(-9)--I said 3.5, Frank said 3. I think Vegas is overrating week 1, while we may be weighing KC's playoff berth last year.

oakland at BUFFALO(-3.5)--I said 3, Frank said Oakland by 3--are the Bills being taken seriously now? I'm not used to this. Frank's really not used to this.

tampa bay at MINNESOTA(-3)--I said 2.5, Frank said 1.5. I can live with being close. Losing to the Chargers trumps losing to the Lions.

chicago at NEW ORLEANS(-7) pretty big dog for a team that just embarrassed the Falcons. I said 4.5, Frank said 3.5. I think the Bears hate has officially gone too far.

baltimore at TENNESSEE(+6) I said 5, Frank said 4, Bill Simmons said 3.5, Cousin Sal said 4.5. So I was closest. Otherwise, I have no opinion...yet.

cleveland at INDIANAPOLIS(+2.5) I said Browns by 3, Frank Browns by 1, Bill and Sal both went Colts by 3. Is Bill off the Browns bandwagon already? Maybe he should be. I wasn't on it, but maybe I should move even further from it. Maybe I should run away screaming.

seahawks at PITTSBURGH(-14.5) We were way low on this: Frank 4.5, me 9, Bill & Sal both 11.5. Steelers probably bounce back, but I still think I'm starting Matthew Stafford over

Big Ben. Does this mean I think the KC Dis worse than Seattle's? More like I'm not trying to time Ben's un-suck.

arizona at WASHINGTON(-4?) This line has moved from 2.5 to 4.5, depending on where you look. Frank & I both said 3, Bill & Sal both said 3.5. I think I expected the Cards to get love they don't deserve. West teams going east suck, and the last place team in the NFC East could be better than the NFC West champ. I'd probably pay give 4, I just thought the line would be lower. I can't believe I've used this much space on this riveting matchup.

green bay at CAROLINA(10.5-9.5) THis line is coming down, towards my pick of 7, though it woun't get that far. Sal went 12.5, Frank went 9, and Bill went 8.5. About our average, and Frank is closest.

dallas at SAN FRANCISCO(+3) We were all dialed in on the excessive Dallas love, tempered by the Jets loss, vs. the bizarre SF love from last year, which may linger on due to new hire Jim Harbaugh, and their victory over the mighty Seahawks. Frank went 2, Bill and Sal went 3.5, and I got one right, with 3. Now I'm trying to figure out how the Cowboys blow this game.

san diego at NEW ENGLAND(-7) This opened at 6.5. I'm not convinced that the Pats pass defense is good enough to win by 7+. I'd defenitely rather take the dog in what looks like a shootout. On the other hand, San Diego usually figures out a way to start out 2-4, and they have to travel east (though for a 4:00 game you'll note) so they are a little bit scary to take. I had NE by 4, Frank 4.5, while Bill & Sal were dialed in at 7.

houston at MIAMI(+3) this opened at 1.5, and moved through my guess of two. Frank had Miami by 3, whie Bill and Sal had Houston by 3.5 and 1.5 respectively. I'm thinking about taking the 'Fins. Not sure I buy the "most improved defense" Texan hype.

cincinnati at DENVER(-3.5) Apparently this opened at 5.5, which seems ridiculous to me. #.5 I'll buy. I said 4, Frank 3, Bill 3, Sal 5.

philadelphia at ATLANTA(+2.5) I had ATL by 2.5, Frank had Philly by 3, Bill & Sal had PHI by 1 and 1.5. Am I nuts to consider the Falcons here?

st louis at NYGIANTS(-6) I said 3.5, Frank 3, Bill said 3.5, and Sal said 6. With the STL injuries I can't disagree too strongly.

So who do I like? So far it's chicago(+6.5)over NEW ORLEANS, and

san diego(+7)over NEW ENGLAND. I may take miami(+3)over HOUSTON too. Or maybe INDY(+2.5)over cleveland .

I also love michigan state(+4.5)over NOTRE DAME. What's ND done to deserve this kind of respect? Fuck Notre Dame.