Fights July 26

Well, now that we all have no fucking idea what will happen next with Tyson Fury, lets run down my other current bets.  The British fights will start in a couple of hours.

I have a parlay that includes Billy Joe Saunders(-900)over Emanuele Blandamura, Terry Flanagan(-600)over Martin Gethin, and Gennady Golovkin(-1250)over Daniel Geale.  This also included Fury(-750)over Ustinov, so the payout, that would have been about 3/5, will be less.

I have another parlay that included Fury(-750), Saunders(-900), Flanagan(-675), and Liam Walsh(-750) over Kevin Hooper, along with Golovkin by decision(+323).  This will pay almost 6/1, but nobody seems to think the GGG fight will go the distance, so this is understandably a long shot.

I have Bryant Jennings(-225)over Mike Perez, then again at (-235), and (-265).  Depending on how 5dimes moves their lines, it is possible that I caused all these moves myself, though I made bets this morning that did not move the lines.

I watched a couple Jennings & Perez fights, and really think Jennings has significant advantages here. Perez hits harder, but Jennings is quicker, more athletic, and has a big reach advantage, so I really don't think Perez will bring his power to bear on Jennings.  The x factor with Perez is that he's a southpaw, and I haven't found any Jennings fights against southpaws.

The odds on this fight going the distance are (-245).  What drew me to this fight in the first place were the odds on this fight going over 8.5 rounds.  Currently these are (-380), and I think they were (-450) or so two days ago.  The less likely a knockout, the more predictable the fight, in my view.*  If we could know in advance a fight will go to the scorecards, then the better boxer should win, unless his opponent has an overwhelming advantage elsewhere, such as home field advantage (Canelo Alvarez over Erislanday Lara, for instance.)  In this case, the Madison Square Garden crowd should be firmly behind Philadelphia's Jennings, over the Cuban Perez.

Perez hits harder, but Jennings has the tools to deal with this, and I think he wins easily.

I parlayed Jennings(-265), with Fury(-800).  Leading up to a fight, 5dimes will limit the amounts on some bets, and won't let you bet them again until the line moves.  I made this parlay because they were limiting what I could bet on Jennings, so I was parlaying him with another fight to get around this.  With Fury's fight cancelled, I stand to make less on this bet, but this way I was able to bet it when otherwise I would have been stopped.

I parlayed Jennings with Fury, Saunders, and GGG.  Again, this was just another way to bet Jennings.  Paid 8.5/10 before Fury's fight cancelled.

Speaking of cancelled fights, Alexander Gustafsson-Jon Jones cancelled due to injury.  This is the fight that will really piss off bovada gamblers, though the fight is far enough out that the money may not have really come in yet.  I was staying away from this fight, but have taken Jones(-195)over Daniel Cormier.  I think Cormier is a beast, and a legitimate threat to Jones, especially if he finds a way to get Jones on the ground and beat his ass.  Basically I am counting on Jones' freak athleticism to keep Cormier at bay, and the judges to give any close decisions to Jones.

I also expect this line to move, perhaps so much that I could hedge with Cormier.  Less than a day later, Jones is (-230), and Cormier is (+170), and the fight is still two months out.

Odds are now out for Mayweather props.  I've taken Mayweather Jr by decision at (-210) and (-245). Just checked, and it's now (-290)...just bet that too.

5dimes finally made available the bet I wanted to reinvest on with my bovada account.  I have Billy Joe Saunders by decision(-170), and (-180).  Saunders is an ultra quick southpaw who should win just about any fight on points, but doesn't earn many KOs.  I haven't watched much of Blandamura, but the odds on the fight going deep suggest he is not a tomato can, or at least that nobody expects Saunders to achieve a KO.

If I coiuld have bet this when I wanted to on bovada, I could have gotten 2/3.  Last I saw they were also (-170).

I also rolled this into a parlay with several other fights I've already mentioned.  May bet this fight to go the distance again if the odds shift.

The last time I had a bunch of parlays like this I got killed, but most of the damage was done in MMA fights. I think boxing is much more predictable.

The only MMA bet I have going tonight is a parlay that rolls Robbie Lawler(-360)over Matt Brown with Saunders and GGG.  Pays about 1/2.  That will be one hell of a fight, and will be what I watch tonight, but I'm not putting much on it at all.

Just took Saunders by decision again at (-210).  That's it for now.

Just took Jennings again at (-235).  That's it, I swear.

*Unless one fighter is an overwhelming knockout artist.  That brings it's own flavor of certainty.  The problem is when your fighter isn't as overwhelming as you think, and you wait for a finish that never comes.