NFL Week One Bets, etc.

 We're about 30 hours out from the NFL opener, & I have made several bets, so there is plenty to talk about. Let's ignore the elephant in the room that I haven't published in this space since 2014 and jump right in.

I consume several gambling podcasts, and the one I take the most seriously includes a guy who has worked or still works with a betting syndicate. Not all of these picks are my own, but I think it is fair to say that they have taught me to fish, as the metaphor goes, so much of the time I have come to my own conclusions by the time they chime in and (mostly) confirm what I was already thinking.

In the last couple weeks I got my hands on Billy Walters' autobiography. In case you've never heard of him, Billy is considered the biggest, most successful sports better of all time. While there may be some limeys or other foreigners who have won more on soccer, cricket, or some other niche sports like Jai Alai (sp?) or women's hoops, they are not on my radar. Billy includes a couple of chapters on his own system towards the end of the book. While I have not tried to emulate his system yet, and may not ever, due to the intensive research & data required, I intend to keep my eye on his system this year. 

Meanwhile, my basis for picking games is much more focused on the psychology of setting lines, since that requires much less work and time, and is easily grasped. Essentially, we start with a base assumption that sportsbooks set lines intending to manipulate the public into making mistakes based on what they "know," or their own assumptions. We'll see if I can integrate some of Mr. Walters system into my bets this season, but no promises!

The Thursday Night opener, Detroit at Kansas City, opened with the Chiefs as a 6.5 point favorite, and has since dipped to 4.5-5.5, due to $$ coming in on the Lions, including a torrent in the last day or so, since DT Chris Jones is still holding out, and since TE Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee yesterday.

The Lions were always the sharp side in this one, not because I am a Lions fan (I am) but because everybody knows Patrick Mahomes is more or less the football messiah, capable of both blowing out KC's opponents, and pulling miracles out of his @$$ at the last minute, throwing from any and all arm angles, with and without looking where he is throwing. His game tape is so sick it is difficult to be even more hyperbolic than is appropriate.

Having said all that, Kansas City has a bad habit of letting their foes catch up. Throughout their current run of three Super Bowl appearances in four years their defense has never been that good. While Mahomes' record as a three-or-less point favorite or as a dog is excellent, as the line climbs, his results dip. You should always be looking to fade the Chiefs once the spread gets near a touchdown or more.

The Kelce injury moved the line. Walters' system insists that you line shop, so for the first time in a few years I opened a second sportsbook account. If I really get serious I may have four or five accounts by the end of the season.

My second account is with FanDuel. I put some $$ in it Tuesday night, knowing I wouldn't be able to bet there until I went to work the next day, since I work in Indiana, and Kentucky, which is legalizing sports betting, will not go live until September 28. My other book is a local underground book in Kentucky, & I'm not sure what they are going to do when it becomes legal. I wouldn't be surprised if the bigger players have put together a bunch of regulations designed to put their competition out of business. I'm convinced that "free markets" don't really exist so much as markets are controlled by cartels, but we can save that discussion for another day.

In any case, Tuesday night FanDuel had the Lions at +5.5, while my local book, who shall go unnamed, had +5, so I wasn't about to bet until I got to Indiana. As of this morning, my underground book had the Lions down to +4.5(!) while FanDuel still had +5.5. 4.5-5.5 is considered sort of a dead zone, but still--a full point! No way I'm settling for 4.5.

When I got to work, I was dismayed to discover that FanDuel thought I was still in Kentucky. With some difficulty I went through about four steps to make sure my wifi & other settings were correct (they were) and used the app's chat function to interface with something that definitely wasn't human, which naturally advised me to take the steps I'd already taken. Thanks. Fuck you, FanDuel. Eventually I tried turning my phone off, and turning it on again. The app suddenly figured out I was in Indiana. If you have any similar issues I'd try that first, since you probably have your settings the same as I do, or you still have a flip phone like my boomer parents.

So I got my lions(+5.5) over KANSAS CITY bet down, along with several others, which follow.

I took ATLANTA(-3.5) over carolina, deviating from my rule to look to bet dogs. While I'm cautiously optimistic about the Panthers chances this year, since the NFC South sucks, and I think Heisman winner Bryce Young is a special player who will do some good things before he gets turned into a pancake by  opposing defenses, this will be his first NFL start, and I expect enough growing pains to pay (-3.5) with Atlanta.

My syndicate people are betting houston(+10) at BALTIMORE. The Ravens have a history of running up the score on weak teams, which makes me want to make another exception and take the favorite. So I'm sitting this one out for now.

I bet CLEVELAND(+2.5)over cincinnati a few weeks ago, knowing my syndicate people would definitely have the same side. Even with the Bengals recent success, the Browns have tended to have their number, and they're a home dog. You can go suck off Joe Burrow all you want, as long as you bet home dogs like you should. We don't yet know if DeShawn Watson is going to be any good, and the books know you don't know that, so they are charging you too much to take the Bengals. Don't be a square.

Also knew the syndicate boys would take INDIANAPOLIS over jacksonville, but I may pass since I didn't get +5.5, and now both books are down to +4.5. Also Jonathan Taylor is on the PUP list and the Colts could be horrible. Anthony Richardson is another rookie who could be way better the second half of the season than he is opening day. 

Took tampa bay(+6) over MINNESOTA on FanDuel--the other book had (+5.5). Are the Bucs 3.5 points worse than the Vikings? (Implied by the line, as home field is considered to be worth 2.5;-- 2.5+3.5+6. Maybe, but since I have not tried to power rate the teams the way Walters does, I am going to err on the side of taking the points. That's really most of what I am doing, especially in Week 1. We know which teams were good last year, and we've had all off season to build a narrative in our heads of what will happen this year, but we don't know. Admit the limits of your knowledge and take the points.

Took tennessee(+3) at NEW ORLEANS. This line is probably fair, with the home team favored by three, but I'm just not crazy about the Saints. While probably an upgrade, and probably the best QB in the division, Derek Carr is a bum on his way to retirement, and there is a good chance Alvin Kamara is washed. Tennessee Coach Mike Vrabel will have his boys ready to play.

I had a Super Bowl future on the 49ers last year, and they'll probably make another run this year, but do the Steelers deserve to be a 2.5 dog at home? Pittsburgh finished last year on a 7-2 streak, and two years ago they beat the Bills outright in week 1 as a 5.5 point dog. If you always bet Mike Tomlin getting points you are ahead. If you always take the Steelers moneyline when they are underdogs you are ahead. Take PITTSBURGH(+2.5)over san francisco. This is the other game I bet weeks ago.

This might make you throw up in your mouth a little, but I took arizona(+7) at WASHINGTON. Probably wouldn't have done it without a nudge from the syndicate boys. The Cardinals may be the favorites to end the season with the worst record in the league, but none of these teams has given up on the season yet.

Stayed away from Green Bay at Chicago, where the Bears are favored by 1 to 1.5. Between my Justin Fields love and my Packers future bet, I may be a bit biased. Maybe you see this one more clearly than I do.

Took DENVER(-3.5) over las vegas. For me this is a bet on Sean Payton pulling the Broncos' heads out of their asses, while the Raiders downgrade, pulling Jimmy Garrapolo off the trash heap to replace Derrick Carr. If Russell Wilson sucks again this year I will stop giving points with Denver and look to bet their unders.

So far I've stayed away from miami at SAN DIEGO...I mean LOS ANGELES CHARGERS. I want to take Miami, in part because I don't think the Chargers have any fan support, so no home field advantage to speak of. On the other hand, jet lag is real. My wiseguys like waiting for the number to move, and taking either CHARGERS(-2.5) or dolphins(+3.5) depending on which way it moves. This is a good reminder that often we are not really betting the teams, but the numbers. Once you truly recognize this you are sort of like Neo, seeing a bunch of green binary code, seeing the matrix. If this idea doesn't make any sense now, circle back to it later.

philadelphia at NEW ENGLAND--While there is movement every year as some teams rise, and others fall, until we see that movement, the Eagles are one of only three NFC teams I consider Super Bowl contenders. Meanwhile, the Patriots appear to be the least talented team in their division. If you've made it this far you will probably not be surprised that I took NEW ENGLAND(+3.5) over philadelphia. The books know you want to take the Eagles. I haven't done the work to figure out what the line should be, and neither have you. It's probably at least a half or whole point less than it is. The books can't guarantee that you lose, but they can charge you enough to put the odds in their favor. Being on the right side of three points is the biggest part of that.

dallas(-3.5) at NYGIANTS You probably have high expectations for the Cowboys this year. I do too. You may expect the Giants to take a step back this year. After all, it is uncommon for three teams from the same division to make the playoffs. And yet, the Giants were a playoff team last year, and at this point we are only guessing at what will happen next to feed our own vanity. More than a field goal at home is too much to give, especially in a divisional matchup. NYGIANTS(+3.5)over dallas. I probably should have waited to bet this, as the suckers trying to win back their early losses may bet it up to four.

Speaking of waiting to bet, I also took NYJETS(+2.5)over buffalo, but the move is probably to wait until Sunday or Monday, to see if you can get JETS(+3). I do wonder, though, if the Jets & Aaron Rodgers' appearance on Hard Knocks over the past month has made them into a more public team than the Bills. I believe the answer is no for now, but if they win that could quickly change. For now I'd still look to get that +3 or better yet, +3.5.

Since I started writing this yesterday I've seen some threes for the Giants-Cowboys line, though as of right now FanDuel and my local book are back to 3.5.