Week Three Gambling Update

Two things to update--first, with Giants at San Francisco in the books, I am 1-0, as the Niners put a beating on New York, 30-12, as I predicted. Meanwhile, credit to B-Rod, as he is at least beginning to see the value of betting underdogs, even if in this case he picked the wrong one.

The other is after I picked up my son from school Friday afternoon, I drove across the river to Indiana to get more favorable lines on FanDuel than were available on Jackpot Jesus. I received an alert from FanDuel eventually, stating that I had bet $90 over the past 27 minutes. I suppose this is FanDuel's contribution to responsible gaming, much like the warnings on video screens at the casino I work at warning you not to leave your children unattended. I love these warnings, because the kid is sympathetically cute, yet his eyes seem a little too far apart, as though the genetic hand he was dealt may include some inbreeding, fitting for the predominantly redneck, if not hillbilly clientele our gambling oasis attracts./9

In any case, during my 27 minutes of betting on FanDuel, my son was with me in the car, and the air conditioning was on, so his being on the sunny side of the car was as far as any abuse or neglect went.

As for the abuse to my bankroll, here are my latest bets.

I took houston(+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE--this was the game that motivated me to cross the river, as Jackpot Jesus was only offering houston(+7.5). Houston has been quietly better than expected, while the Jags were wildly incompetent in the red zone vs. Kansas City. If anything, I need to watch that I'm not spite-betting against Jacksonville. On the other hand, while I don't recall the exact stats, Trevor Lawrence's record as a favorite in his young career is atrocious so far. And limited. I think the way the Jags came from behind to catch the Titans last year made them underdogs most of the time, as their record didn't flip from winning to losing until close to the end of the season. Since I'm generally looking for any excuse to bet underdogs, T-Law's crap record as a favorite will do.

I took GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans. I actually bet this one on Jackpot Jesus--I'd already taken GREEN BAY(-2), and as of Friday FanDuel had dropped to GREEN BAY(-1.5)...but Jackpot Jesus was down to PACKERS(-1). The lesson here is to always shop for the best line. 

On the other hand, opinion really seems to be split on this one, as a lot of people really like the Saints. Backing an indoor turf team outdoors on the road on grass totally goes against my principals, though I may be willing to break them for a team whose QB I consider less of a bum than Derek Carr...

...for instance larams(+2.5)over CINCINNATI. This is not so much a bet on Rams QB Matthew Stafford, as a bet against Joe Burrow, who is clearly injured and would likely not be playing if the Bengals were 1-1 right now. If it turns out that Burrow doesn't play, this line probably pops to rams(-3). Even if he does play there is no guarantee he will be effective.

On the flip side, this is the kind of short home favorite I generally like to back, and if a desperate Bengals team finds a way to win this could bit me in the ass, just as taking the Bengals at Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes was hopping around on one leg did. Ultimately I just love this angle and want some action on this game.

Took TAMPA BAY(+4.5)over philadelphia, the third week in a row I'm on the Bucs. Week 1 I didn't trust the Vikings, Week 2 I didn't trust the Bears coaching to get them to bounce back in a bounce-back spot, and I guess at this point I don't really trust the Eagles, as they allowed a back-door push vs. the Vikings, and  came a penalty flag away from doing the same vs. the Patriots. I don't think the Eagles are nearly as good right now as they were last year, so until they tell us otherwise I think we can find value fading the Eagles.

I circled back to a bet I did last year, teasing the Jets and the under, and also teasing the Pats and the under--this bumps the under from 36.5 to 42.5, and gives me a 12 point window of outcomes where I can win both bets. Both these teams have solid defenses and fairly inept offenses, so the six point tease is proportionately a bigger cushion than, say, Colorado at Oregon, o/u 70.5, for instance.

After that I did some moneyline parleys, without breaking down all of them, here are the teams I took, with their moneylines:

Houston +310

Atlanta +140

Denver +225

Tennessee +162

Tampa Bay +194

Los Angeles +120

I am not convinced that round-robin moneyline parleys are a good deal, so these bets are a bit of an experiment. I will let you know the results, if FanDuel gives them to me in a way that I can decipher.

To make it easier to keep track, I will list the single games I've bet for this week here.

tennessee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND

GREEN BAY(-2) over new orleans

GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over indianapolis

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over indianapolis

houston (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE

atlanta(+4) over DETROIT

MINNESOTA (pk) over los angeles chargers

LAS VEGAS (-1) over pittsburgh

los angeles rams(+2.5) over CINCINNATI

tampa bay(+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA

AND, SAN FRANCISCO(-10.5) 30, new york giants 12, and SAN FRANCISCO(-11) over new york giants 12.