Week 4 recap, Week 5 bets

 Weird week four--I ended up 5-5-1, including 0-2-1 in games where one of the QBs didn't play. These were:

Baltimore 28, Cleveland 3. I had CLEVELAND(-2.5), and DeShawn Watson didn't play. Apparently there was some wildly different line out there and I never saw it. 0-1

Minnesota 21, Carolina 13. I had CAROLINA(+4)--in this one I wanted backup Andy Dalton to play over rookie starter Bryce Young, but that's not what happened. 0-2

LAChargers 24, Las Vegas 17--I took las vegas(+7) fairly late. I believe the line move was because Jimmy G was out, but I wouldn't be surprised if Aidan O'Connell is rated higher than Jimmy G in the near future. Also, he wears #4, and looks weirdly like Derek Carr, who the Raiders shipped to the Saints. Teams should wait at least a couple more years to recycle numbers, especially when the new guy plays the same position and is a dead-ringer. Otherwise it's confusing AF. 0-2-1

Buffalo 48, Miami 20--I took the Fins(+3). Still don't mind my 17-1 ticket on them to win the Super Bowl. Should be easy to hedge. 0-3-1

LARams 29, Indy 23--I had rams(+1)--1-3-1

Tampa Bay 26, New Orleans 9--I had tampa bay(+4)...actually another game where the "wrong" QB started, as injured Derek Carr started over Jameis Winston. Saints need to figure out QB, as Carr completed 13 passes to Alvin Kamara for 33 yards, and about 130 yards on 30+ completions, stat lines that don't even seem possible, let alone desirable--2-3-1.

Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 3--I had TENNESSEE(+2.5)--didn't know the Titans were capable of blowing anybody out, but the Bengals are awful right now.--3-3-1.

Houston 30, Pittsburgh 6--I had TEXANS(+3)--people are about to figure out that Stroud is pretty good. Meanwhile, I don't think I'm quite dialed in on the Steelers, as I probably got lucky taking them vs. the Browns, and I lost fading them vs. the Raiders.--4-3-1

Kansas City 23, NY Jets 20--I had chiefs(-9.5)--the Chiefs blew a big lead in this game, and at the end Patrick Mahomes downed the ball at the one to avoid covering the spread. He'll never become Sean McVay like that.--4-4-1.

Oh yeah, on Thursday I teased the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, and the first one hit. 5-5-1.

On to this week--

Pretty sure staying in London for consecutive weeks will benefit Jacksonville(+5.5) and make them the right side. Additionally, Buffalo could be due for a letdown after their "game of the year" win over Miami. On the flip side is the Bills penchant for winning by wide margins. Haven't pulled the trigger on this, and don't intend to be awake to watch it.

I had almost managed to talk myself into a letdown by CJ Stroud, until I heard some stat about teams returning from London without taking a bye. I don't think there's a long list of examples, since most teams take their bye afterwards, but it spells doom for Atlanta. Consider that the Falcons need to travel further than the Texans for this home game. How much does that blunt their home field advantage? houston(+1.5)over ATLANTA. The money seems to be moving this way, as I saw a (+2) a couple days ago.

INDIANAPOLIS(+2.5)over tennessee--I take it bettors were impressed with the Titans' beatdown of the Bengals last week. Now we get to see if they actually deserve to be road favorites. I got this line on FanDuel, as the locals have driven the line down to 1.5 on Jackpot Jesus.

NEW ENGLAND(+1) over new orleans--this one is a pick on JJ, so I'm betting it on FD before it moves. May also do a double tease of both teams and the under (39.5) as both of these teams have strong defenses, and varying degrees of wild dysfunction on offense. Give me the home dog outdoors vs. the road favorite dome team.

LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia-- Eagles have been winning a lot of close games. I may regret this, as Matthew Stafford has some sort of hip injury, and the Rams are down a left tackle, but if Stafford can stay of his feet long enough to feed the returning Cooper Kupp, as well as debutant Puka Nacua, the Rams can keep this close, &/or backdoor cover like the Vikes. This one is down to 4 on JJ.

MINNESOTA(+3.5) over kansas city--might wait on this one to see if it gets back to 4. Backing Minnesota has me throwing up in my mouth a little bit, but you gotta admit, the Vikings are certainly more capable of keeping the game close than the Jets. Might tease this with the OVER(52.5).

ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati--Are people betting the Bengals, or on a shadow of the Bengals? I imagine if Joe Burrow avoids getting reinjured the Bengals will eventually improve, I think they deserve to be faded until this happens. I don't expect the Cardinals to pull off an upset as they did vs. Dallas a couple weeks ago over and over, but so far they have been scrappy enough to keep it close.

baltimore(-4) at PITTSBURGH--you may need to price-shop to find this line, as I have now seen -4.5. The dog has a ridiculous record in this game, something like 22-5, so you need to consider if Pittsburgh sucks enough to warrant this line. At this point I have teased Pittsburgh and the under(38), and parleyed Baltimore and the under(+180), and Baltimore and the over(+200). Hopefully I hit on 2 out of 3.