NFL Week 8 picks & Week 7 recap

 So what happened last week? San Diego  failed to cover at Kansas City, losing 31-17. My first half bet on the Eagles covered, and they also covered for the game, beating Miami, also by a 31-17 score. At the tail end of the 1:00 games I was under the impression that I was going 6-0 in my UNDER double-teases, until I remembered that for that to happen the games actually needed to be within 6 points of the original point spread, not just below the teased under. I actually went 4-2, highlighted by Atlanta's 16-10 win over Tampa Bay. The Giants and Bears won by too much to let the Raiders & Redskins  sides of my parlays cover.

This week? I've waited to bet until Friday night, perhaps to my detriment, as I think I could have gotten houston(-3), but am now settling for houston(-3.5)over CAROLINA. Both of these teams are coming off their byes, and I expect the better coached team to come into this game better prepared. This game also has a little juice as it features the #1 & #2 QB picks from the last draft. Regardless of the outcome of this game, so far CJ Stroud has clearly won this battle to avoid being a bust. It remains to be seen if Bryce Young can turn this around in the future. Given the rumors I've heard, Young as the first pick happened because of meddling from the Panthers new owner, David Tepper. Not the best omen for a career when your very pick is a blunder stemming from managerial incompetence, even if less egregious than the Giants drafting Daniel Jones in the top five.

Otherwise, I've made a couple more first half bets, taking PHILADELPHIA(-3.5)over washington, and jacksonville(-.5)over PITTSBURGH. The Eagles have covered in the first half seemingly for the past year and a half, and I finally bet them last week. On the flip side, the Steelers have been awful in the first half, somehow managing to get their shit together in the second half in their wins. On that note, I have PITTSBURGH(+2)over jacksonville for the game. The Steelers have been money as a home dog, and these poitions should hedge each other out pretty well if this game doesn't follow the recent script.

Watching the Saints this year has pretty much been an exercise in throwing up in my mouth, while the Colts have been kinda fun, so I took INDIANAPOLIS(+1)over new orleans. Not super satisfying as a home dog, since this is practically a pick, but it's still a home dog.

Sorta terrifying to bet on the Titans with either Malik Willis or Will Levis at the helm, but Tennessee is at home and coming off a bye, so they've had a couple weeks to get one of these guys first team reps, if they didn't split reps between both of them. This could also be a letdown spot for the Falcons after a divisional win vs Tampa Bay last week. TENNESSEE(+2.5)over atlanta.

My last bet (so far) is on Cincinnati at San Francisco. Brock Purdy is out, so this is our first chance to see if Kyle Shanahan's offensive system is so good even Sam Darnold can't fuck it up. Between Cincy's coming off a bye, relative desperation, and additional Niner injuries, I'm willing to back the Bengals. Apparently others have been backing SF, because this line has moved from 49ers(-3.5) to 49ers(-5), so I have cincinnati(+5)over SAN FRANCISCO.