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Has our hero hit rock bottom? He is hoping that his online sportsbook/poker accounts have hit bottom, but you can always go lower....They say that you have to hit rock bottom before you get help for an addiction, but if the addiction is profitable...

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Unhappy St. Patrick's Day

Ugh. Won only $61 at Harrah's yesterday, and followed that up with a $126 loss at Imperial Palace, due to a serious error with AA in the big blind. Down $165 for the day. Leaves me up $848 for the trip. I called two pre-flop all-ins, and one on a flop, losing all three, despite being ahead every time. I may have to consider avoiding these to lower my variance. (There were other all-ins as well, but in these I was much more certain I was ahead. I don't think I was ever behind when alot of chips went in, except with my AA.

So far I'm 1-1 in the NCAA tournament, as BYU pulled out an OT victory over Florida, 97-92. I had BYU(-5)over Florida. Meanwhile, the Choking Irish bombed out the day after St. Patrick's Day, losing to Old Dominion, 51-50. I had ND(-2)over OD. Later on I have Georgetown(-13)over Ohio, and Tennessee(-3)over San Diego State.

Tomorrow I have Florida State(-1)over Gonzaga, Temple(-1)over Cornell, Oakland(+10)over Pittsburgh, and Louisville(-1)over Cal. Cal is now a pick, while Oakland is now +10.5. Everyone says Cal is undervalued. I've heard the same thing about Oakland, but apparently they are still flying under the radar.
Back to the grind. No alcohol for me today...or at least not much.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Skinning Drunks Later...

Happy St. Patrick's Day...(!)

Won $252 playing 1-2 at the Hard Rock last night, and followed it up with a $425 win at the Palms playing 1-3. In between I was in a ridiculous traffic jam going north on Las Vegas Blvd. In fact, this jam was the reason I ended up at the Palms. I was trying to go to Bally's or Harrah's, but there was no way I could get across 2 lanes to get to Bally's, and there was no way I was going to continue north to Harrah's.

The other place I was going to try to check out was Aria City Center. My plan was to check out the Palms, and head back to Aria if the Palms looked dead, but it was fishy enough for me. I figured I could get south on LVB to city center, since traffic didn't look jacked up that way. Today I may have to stay off the strip when moving about.

Speaking of which, this could be a big earning day for me, with all the drunks & what not, so I'm getting back out there. I totaled $677 last night, and I'm up $1115 in two days. Can't complain.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

I'm in Vegas, after driving for two days, including through a nasty snowstorm, of all things, in New Mexico, of all places.

I'm holed up in Circus Circus again, in the West Tower this time. I'm on the 17th floor, and my window faces the big, unsightly, pink dome that houses the circus, or the casino, or something.

I'm up $438 from playing $2-5 NLHE at the MGM last night, and I've started to bet on the NCAA tournament. I plan on putting minimal time into picking hoops, to max out my poker time. I'm hoping this week will have that much more action than usual, due to March Madness, St. Patricks day, and spring break. I hadn't factored that in before, but apparently it's going on, so there you go.

So far I have Louisville(-1) over Cal. Apparently the smart $$ likes Cal, but I didn't hear this until after I'd bet. I also have Notre Dame(-2)over Old Dominion. This line opened at 3. If it keeps falling, I may bet it again. I also have Tennessee(-3)over San Diego State. This was 4 before. I thought Tennessee would be getting more respect.

Apparently Oakland is a big sleeper. They opened as an 11 point dog to Pitt, and it's dropped to 10. Word on the street is that Pitt should only be favored by 5 or 6. So...Oakland(+10)over Pitt. Accuscore has Pitt by 8, whatever that's worth. Usually I find relying on Accuscore is less help than hindrance.

Weekend Recap

I need to post my recent picks at some point. This is where I'll do it...when I get to it.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Better than Yesterday

It's still tournament time, and as I predicted, the lack of home courts has made my picks less relaible.

At least I got something right.

On the other hand, I took Wake Forest(-4)over Miami. Figured since the ACC tournament is in North Carolina this would be like a home game. If it was, it didn't matter. Miami won,
83-62.

I teased Michigan(-3)over Iowa, over 112, since I didn't turst Michigan to cover eight points. And they didn't. But the teams combined didn't score 112 either. Michigan, 59-52. Not only did Michigan fail to cover the actual spread by one, they missed the teased over by one. Lie down with dogs, you get fleas. These games finished within six minutes of each other. To say I was dismayed would be an understatement.

I salvaged some dignity, and $$, when Texas A&M beat Nebraska, 70-64. By the time I bet, the Aggies were favored by 8. Fortunately, I teased this one as well.
Texas A&M(-3)over Nebraska, over 119. While A&M needed the tease to cover, 134 points was enough to cover the actual over...or the teased under, for that matter (129). I really like the Aggies, as well as Baylor. Neither gets alot of attention. Hopefully they both stay underrated. I don't know if I want to mess with either one of them vs. Kansas or Kansas State, they ought to be worth a couple of bets in the NCAA tournament.

I parlayed Northwestern(-9)over Indiana, under 134. I like to parlay big favorites with the under, since I think many blowouts happen when the loser gets shout down offensively. I considered doing the same thing with Tennessee-LSU, but decided Tennessee scores enough to hit the over on their own, so to speak. But what do I know? That total went under easily, as the 59-49 final score was 18 shy of 126. Tennessee didn't cover anyway, as the Vols were favored by 10.

Anyway, Northwestern trailed early on, though I think they had a lead by the time I took a nap in the second half. When I woke up, the Wildcats had won, 73-58, sneaking under by 3 points. This bet paid 2.81/1.

I was awake through the entire Texas-Baylor game. This one opened as a pick, but moved a point in either direction by game time. Based on my above comments, you probably know which way I was leaning here. I was unlucky enough to get Baylor(-1)over texas. Worked out though, as the Bears pulled away in the 2nd half, 86-67.

So I actually went 3-2 on the day, and the parlay makes it a bit better than that. Brings me to 21-13 on covers, or 20-13, 1-0 on parlays. I'd rather keep that count separate, since it can't help but bring my average down.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

A rough day for me

It's conference tournament time, and my bets today didn't do so hot. Here they are.

I took South Florida(+7)over Georgetown. I considered teasing Georgetown, but couldn't decide whether to go over or under. Under would have worked. Georgetown, 69-49. MSG is St. John's home court. I teased ST JOHNS(+9.5)over marquette, over 121. Good day for unders. Marquette won, 57-55. Turns out I didn't need to tease. Oh well.

I also teased Missouri(-6)over Nebraska, over 127. The teased over came in, but Missouri lost outright, 75-60. Terrible. Nebraska sucks, too. Staying in the Big XII, I took
Oklahoma State(-6)over Oklahoma. State jumped out to about a 20-2 early lead, and cruised to an 81-67 victory.

Meanwhile, I had Notre Dame(-1)over Seton Hall. The Irish came through, 68-56, and I briefly had a shot at breaking even for the day, but my bet of Louisville(-6)over Cincinnati went awry, as the Cardnails lost outright, 69-66. Crap. You wouldn't guess this after Georgetown crushed Cincy, 74-47. Maybe you would, but i sure the hell didn't. 2-4 on the day.

Tornament play could continue to be rough for me, as much as I depend on home court advantage for my wagers. Games with a home court advantage are few and far between.

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Week Recap, since I've been slacking...

(If you don't want to read about cars, skip down to where my picks appear in bold print. I go on for a bit.)

I haven't posted in a week, since it's been hectic. I was on my way to New Orleans, wife & kid in tow, when my Impala broke down. Three days later, I bought a new Jetta, getting $4500 from the Chevy on a trade-in, sight unseen. If Automax doesn't want to do their due dillegence, who am I to do it for them. The local Chevy dealership, who replaced the transmission once, and just fixed it again, told me I would probably get $2000-$2500 from them, had I bought a Camaro from them.

As recently as four weeks ago I remarked that buying a Camaro might be the most patriotic act I could imagine. It may be more accurate to say that it was the most patriotic act I could imagine myself doing, since I don't particularly care for any other Chevys right now. As for other American cars, I can see myself in a Challenger, a used CTS...or maybe a Pontiac G8 or GTO (For a cheap fuck like me, buying a new car is an uber-patriotic act. Buying a house? Well, my duplex will make me money, so ultimately this is a less expensive act. My Jetta is only about 1% American parts, so about every Japanese car I could have considered is more American than my new Krautmobile.

Since I will move to Germany in the next year or so, it behooves me to get a car that is easy to maintain over there. Apparently it would have behooved me to get a Golf, so I could squeeze my way into tight parking spaces, but I want that massive Jetta trunk. I need to make this car practical long term, especially if I am harboring any plans to get a Camaro when I get back to the US. (Or a BMW...I test drove an '06 330i--smokin' fast. Makes me shudder to think what the 335i will do, since these beasts get a 300HP twin turbo flat 6, instead of the 265 or so horses from the 330i. I like cars that make me shudder.

My Jetta doesn't quite do that, but it is a Wolfsburg Edition, so it gets the 2.0 liter turbo engine. It's a stealthy little rocket. I like stealth...one way this car trumps a Camaro. The stealthiest you can get with those is to get one in Cyber Grey Metallic, or maybe Imperial Blue Metallic. Don't go with Victory Red, Rally Yellow, or Synergy Green. And stay away from racing stripes.

Black is the only color on the Camaro palate that doesn't get an adjective. White? Make that Summit white.

Having scoured the internet for car info in the past week, I am suddenly conversant in the language of car colors. The adjectives used tell you where these guys' heads are at...or rather, where they think their customers' heads are at. Mitsubishi Lancers don't come in white. They come in Wicked White. Want a white Mitsubishi Galant? It comes in White Pearl. You can't get a white Jaguar XJ. The closest you can get is Porcelain...which makes it sound like a $72,500 toilet...or the milky skin of a damsel in a vampire novel. Jags also come in other expensive sounding colors, like Claret Metallic, and Caviar Metallic. If you want a black Jag, they come in Ebony...or Ultimate Black Metallic. Going back to Mitsubishi, Eclipses come in Kalapana Black. Lancers come in Tarmac Black Pearl, while Lancer Evolutions come in Phantom Black Pearl.

VW doesn't rely on adjectives to evoke...whatever it is these manufacturers are trying to evoke. They provide brief paragraphs for each color. While these paragraphs are only slightly less obnoxious than the rest of VW's marketing, they have enough entertainment value that I am reproducing them here.

White Gold Metallic: "This metallic blend of white and gold says class, sophistication, and style. Win win win." It also says you want a Jag or a Benz, but can't afford one. Or a Caddy. Cadillac calls this shade (more or less) Vanilla Latte.

Black Uni: "The color of crisp, parallel grill lines seared into a fleshy steak; dancing piano keys; a desolate road without a single street light." Apparently this is not the color for vegans, a demographic I tend to associate with VW. Black Uni is good for tailgaters, musicians, and stalkers. Black Jetta is the new white van.

Salsa Red: "A thick, deep red. Though highly tempting, we don't advise trying to dip your chips in it." Especially if your chips were fried in animal fat. I'm not sure where the vegans stand on salsa. Maybe this is their color. Salsa is the new green.

Candy White: "White is the color with the least amount of ego emissions. Candy white emits a bit more ego. Because it's a lot more glossy. Like candy apple red. Except more white than red. Reaffirming VW's appeal to stoners. This description just gave me the munchies. Hopefully the rear has room for a bunch of dippy bumper stickers.

Blue Graphite Metallic: "Not just blue, blue with graphite flakes. Like having millions of little safety reflectors." Not so much appealing to stoners, as written by stoners. On my computer this looks way more graphite and metallic than blue. About as un-blue as blue can be.

Platinum Gray Metallic: "Better than gold. You bet. It's tough, industrial, and shiny, like a popular rock band." Huh? Maybe they should have called this shade Nickelback. They're...shiny, I guess. This might be my favorite shade, but it may be my least favorite description.

Reflex Silver Metallic: "A touch more bling than gray, a bit more exhilarating than white. Not quite black, not aluminum either. The color of metal. The color of steel. Cool, collected, confident." Or, can't afford a Bimmer...yet. This may be my least favorite shade, but it's the one I'm stuck with, since there was only one Wolfsburg Edition available. It's stealthy, in the way only blah can be. A gray car for the gray man. I like it better on rainy days, so far, but this may be due to Jaguar colors like Frost Blue and Vapour Grey, that evoke the Mists of Avalon...or something.

Sadly enough, there's more. While Reflex Silver Metallic, White Gold Metallic, and Candy White are also available on the Passat, they are joined by...

Deep Black: "Turn off the lights. Close your eyes. Beautiful." This black says you've moved on from all that Jetta stoner nonsense.

Mocha Anthracite: "Like freshly brewed German coffee to stir your senses and get your drive off on the right foot." Hopefully anthracite isn't an artificial sweetener. Personally, I rely on the Italians or French (or Indonesians) for coffee. Stick to cars and beer.

Island Gray Metallic: "The color of foggy mornings, drizzly afternoons, smeared newsprint on your fingertips, smoke rising from the crackling fire." Clearly this is the shade I've been trying to shoehorn my car into in my mind. And I have many leatherbound books that smell of rich mahogany. A very literate shade.

The Passat's muted palate continues on the CC, though the CC has a whopping nine shades to choose from. If I'm paying this much I want choices....even if they all look sort of the same. We've already seen deep black, island gray metallic, reflex silver metallic, white gold metallic, and candy white, which leaves four new shades.

Mocha Anthracite Metallic: This gets the same description as the previous Mocha Anthracite, but sounds less healthy, and looks exactly the same, on my laptop anyway.

Shadow Blue Metallic: "Blue has lots of layers. Calm, confident and friendly it can also be mysterious and seductive. If the world had to pick a favorite color, the winner would probably be blue." Popular yet mysterious. The color for the guy who can't make up his mind...and hopes to get laid...without seeming desperate. Looks more blue than the shade on the Jetta, and the Passat didn't even have a blue. I missed it, until this description.

Iron Gray Metallic: "Like the magnetic metal after which it was named, the CC attracts a crowd, and draws them in for a closer look." The CC was named after a metal? I thought iron was Fe. A lighter shade than an Iron Cross, but almost as butch.

Light Brown Metallic: "With a nice hint of chocolate. Now, sure, chocolate is also brown. So how do we know there is a hint of chocolate in there? Trust. That's how." Huh? Just when we'd put our VW stoner past behind us, I've got the munchies again.

Hold on. White Gold Metallic gets a new description: "It's close to the color of champagne that was popped and sprayed about during it's Pike's Peak victories." Though Chrysler's shade "Champagne" may do a better job of hiding dirt.

I'm semi-terrified to see what drivel they've concocted for the mini-vans. No, I haven't checked yet. I didn't think this would go on and on.

Good god. The Routan has eight new shades, or perhaps one new shade, and seven renamed shades. Take a deep breath.

Antigua Blue: "Clean, simple and pure. It's like a huge vanilla ice cream cone that never melts." And it's Downy fresh...well, it's the shade of fabric softener. Blue vanilla? See, I just told you the shade without all this nonsense. Though I'm too butch to use fabric softener...or hand sanitizer.

Cala Lily White: "Clean and untouched. Here's carte blanche to make your mark." Sounds like a Madonna song...looks like Moby Dick.

Cocoa Bean: "Dark, rich and delicious like the treat it's inspired by." They know they need to manipulate the wife into wanting this. Men are going to manipulate their way into a 4x4.

Mercury Silver: "Lustrous, mysterious, mercurial. Like quicksilver. Now you see it, now you don't." Like your vampire boyfriend. Or bon bons.

Tanzanite: "A shaded medley of sapphire blue, violet and burgundy that glimmers like a rare gemstone." Good god. It's like an ad for Jareds.

Pomegranate Red: "Mouthwateringly fresh. Ready to be picked and savored." But don't dip your chips in it. Maybe a shade darker than salsa. Maybe.

Noctune Black: "Sophisticated, stylish, and trendsetting. Noctune Black is the new black."

Meteor Gray: "Elegant and out of this world, ready to enter the earth's atmosphere in style." These last two are more butch than their descriptions, which still are a bit estrogen-heavy.

Tiguan has approximately the same colors we've seen before, but with completely new despciptions. GTI has colors we've seen before, but with decidedly more butch descriptions....Other than Carbon Steel Gray Metallic, a new color, that gets the same description as Reflex Silver Metallic. Too bad, because I like this shade alot more than the one I'm stuck with. Golf has some of the same shades as the GTI, but these get different descriptions too.

While these endless descriptions have worn me down to a nub, I'm confident the Beetle descriptions will be entertaining....

Different.





Since I last posted, I've made several bets, all of whcih I've posted on covers.com. Here is a recap.

March 3: SOUTH CAROLINA(-3)over alabama--'Bama won, 79-70. 0-1...NOTRE DAME(-1)over uconn--ND won, 58-50. 1-1. Glad I didn't take the over. MARYLAND(+2)over duke--MD won, 79-72. 2-1. Brought me to 10-2 on covers.com. I also took BOSTON COLLEGE(-7)over virginia, but didn't post it because I didn't feel too confident about BC. BC won, 68-55

March 4: Teaser: ARIZONA(pick)over ucla, under 145. I didn't feel good about this pick. Shoulda went with that feeling. Arizona won, but the total went over, 78-73. 2-2. 10-3 on covers.

March 6: GEORGETOWN(-7)over cincinnati--Not even close. G'town, 74-47.
VILLANOVA(-3)over west virginia--Close, but no cigar. WVU, 68-66. BAYLOR(-3)over texas. I've done great fading the 'Horns this year. Baylor, 92-77. MISSISSIPPI STATE(-3)over tennessee--What you need to realise about Miss St. is that they make their living from behind the arc. If they have a bad shooting night, they're pretty much fucked.
Tennessee, 75-59. 2-2 for the day. 12-5 on covers.

March 7: OLD DOMINION(-1)over virginia commonwealth--This pick 99% technical analysis. What the fuck do I know about the CAA. Other than Colonial, I don't even know what CAA stands for. OD, 73-69. Teaser: ILLINOIS(+8.5)over wisconsin, over 117. Got the over part right. Illinois lives by the jump shot, and they die by it. Wisconsin, 72-57.
WAKE FOREST(-1)over clemson. Felt good about this one...WF, 70-65. 2-1 on the day, 14-6 on covers.

March 8: Old Dominion vs. William & Mary, OVER 117. This number seemed way too low. And...teaser: OLD DOMINION(-4)over william & mary, over 112. If these teams had shot some fucking free throws (a tongue-twister--try it!) this would have gone over. There were 2 or 3 nasty cold streaks in this game. But, the last free throw of the game won me one of these bets. OD 60-53, 113 total. 1-1, 15-7.

March 9: Teaser: South Florida(-2.5)over DePaul, under 131. No home court...the Big East Tournament is in Madison Square Garden. USF, 58-49. 107 points. The only reason I teased under instead of over was because the total had moved from 124.5 to 126, so under seemed like a better deal. Accuscore's pick may have moved the total. Alot of totals seem to receive enough action to move them to Accuscore's predictions...or the bookies just adjust the totals that way, with or without the action.

I regret that I didn't trust St. John's(+4) on their home court vs. UConn. The Johnnies won easily, 73-51. This line was 5 by game time. Maybe it would have helped if I'd remembered that St. John's played their home games at MSG. Maybe I would have remebered if the Johnnies were still good.

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

I'm late posting tonight, but I put all my picks earlier on covers.com's facebook page, so fuck it. But, lets recap. I wanted to tease CLEMSON(-2)over georgia tech, over 133, but the cowards at bodog.com never put up a total, so instead I took CLEMSON(-6)over georgia tech. Clemson won, 91-80. Incidentally, the over covered, big time.

Before that bet, I made three others. I took FLORIDA(-3)over vanderbilt. Florida made a game of it, but lost, 64-60. This was the first game of the night, so I started off 0-1. I also took NORTH CAROLINA(-4)over miami. UNC won, 69-62, about the same time the Clemson game was winding up, putting me at 2-1. Marquette opened as a 3.5 point favorite hosting Louisville. Apparently the public disagreed with this line, and probably the sharps as well, because it fell to 2, or even 1.5 on some sites. I paid a little more vig to get
MARQUETTE(-1)over louisville. This game just ended, with Marquette on top, 69-48. Makes up for my losing bet on UConn vs. the Cardnails.

Covers has a video that parodies those Dos Equis ads, that you need to see, so here's a link to it.

So, I went 3-1 on the night, putting me at 8-1 overall when I post on covers.com. I'm not perfect anymore there, but I'll take it.

Monday, March 01, 2010

Up the Mountain...eers...

While I was checking recent scores the WVU line moved on me. The Mountaineers opened as 5.5 point favorites over Georgetown, and by tonight they were up to 6.5. I check Sports Objective's pick, and see that he's taken WVU(-7). Fuck.

What pisses me off was that I'd already figured on teasing West Virginia and the over this morning, after I'd checked the recent totals for these teams. By waiting I cost myself a half point. Or more vig. Anyway, Ive taken WEST VIRGINIA(-2)over georgetown, over 132. And I've posted it on covers.com's facebook page, where I am currently 4-0.

I've also teased Texas(-13.5) down to TEXAS(-8.5)over oklahoma, under 152. The line has been dropping (from 14.5), and the total has been rising (to 146 from 144.5), so I'll use this in my favor. Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian. Hopefully this is one of those times.

I really wanted to do a parlay here. At first I was looking at Texas and the under, since I find that most big wins happen because the loser doesn't score as much as usual. After checking the recent Sooner totals, I decided that counting on Oklahoma to not score might not be such a good idea.

It's halftime, and West Virginia is up by 17, 43-26. Easily covering, and on pace to go over. Hopefully they don't get up by so much that the teams lose interest and stop scoring.

WVU won, and the over came in, 81-68. I'm now 5-0 when I post on covers.com.

Meanwhile, Texas has finally taken the lead for the first time, 58-56, 9:08 to go. The teased under is starting to look like it has a chance of covering, as do the 'Horns, who were down 13 earlier in the game.

Given my apparent ability to cherry pick my best...picks to post, you'd think I might bet a bit more on those games, but so far I haven't.

Texas has won, 87-76, covering the teased line, but the total went over, to the tune of 163. Oklahoma and the over looks outstanding right now.