Picking with a Plunger

Well, my NFL betting so far this season has gone atrociously. As atrociously as Notre Dame's season? Not quite. Close enough, though. Partly it's just been timing. Week one I announced my strategy of picking mostly underdogs. After my poor showing I abandoned my strategy, after which underdogs went something like 12-3-1 against the spread in week two. I went for the favorites, and went 1-3. Last week I did the sensible thing, and didn't bet at all. Not sure how the 'dogs did, but it probably was not bad.

This week I've put approximately zero time into picking. Right now I'm resorting to teasing games to get back on track (possibly not the best way), so I'm taking newengland and the OVER against CINCY, which after a 6 point tease has the Pats by two, with an over of 48. The 54 over/under limne on bodog is inflated from 52 on Mansion, which makes taking 60 as the under a bit tempting, but I expect the Bengals to score points at home, so the under seems a little dangerous.

(Unfortunately, Mansion doesn't let you tease games; maybe the Brits haven't figured out teases yet. Not quite sure how you'd work teases with soccer, though with rugby it seems to make sense. Anyway, in order to tease I'm forced to move over to bodog, where my bankroll is practically non-existant, so my bets are embarassingly tiny. So be it. I just want to see a win.)

I tried to tease INDY and the over against denver, since the over of 48 seems a little modest, at least compared to the Pats-Bengals game, but bodog says that game can't be teased. I think they allow it closer to game time, but I'll probably forget to do it. That's why I teased the Colts and Cowboys instead. I have COLTS(-3)overbroncos, and COWBOYS(-7)overrams. I won't bore you with any analysis, because currently we have no reason to think you have any business listening to me.

My Picks not as bad as Notre Dame

Of the seven games I identified last week as having excessive action in one direction on the Mansion Exchange, the public was right in 3 cases, wrong in three others, and pushed once, as the Washington Redskins tied the spread as they won the game, with a field goal in overtime. So much for using public opinion as a barometer. As for the games I bet on, I went 4-8. I went 1-2 when I bet on favorites, so I went 3-6 when I took dogs. Consistently bad, I guess. At this point I am ready to give up on my "system" of taking mostly dogs. So much for my conviction, if you want to call it that.

On the college front, Michigan did the classy thing, and stopped scoring on Notre Dame once they were up 38-0. As for Notre Dame, they haven't scored since the third quarter against Penn State. UCLA got embarassed by Utah 44-6, and Louisville choked against Kentucky, 40-34. The Bruins were favored by 16, the Cardinals by 4.5.

Michigan State wil be favored over Notre Dame next week, but by how much? They were favored over Pitt by 12, but only won by 4, 17-13. My guess is that State will be favored by between 7 and 9.5. It could be more, but I oddsmakers ought to respect State's inability to cover against Pittsburgh, just as they will respect Notre Dame's inability to score. It could be a bit less; I overlooked the fact that Notre Dame will be at home. Of course, State has fared rather well at South Bend in the recent past, so....

Boston College was a 7 point dog at Georgia Tech, but emerged with a 24-10 victory. ESPN seemed to believe that this game would come down to whether or not BC's offensive line could give their quarterback enough time to throw. Apparently they did--he threw for 400+ yards. I had a feeling that this was code for "bet the farm on BC." After all, what is BC known for these days besides beefy linemen, both on offense and defense? (Not to mention beefy power forwards....No, I'm not fishing for "point-shaving scandals," why do you ask?)

Anyway, the last time both of my schools were favored over Notre Dame was probably at least 4 or 5 years ago (or hockey season...or basketball season...) This feels wierd. I like to feel like I've accomplished something when State beats Notre Dame, even if I've done nothing to contribute beyond drinking beer while I watch TV.

Speaking of accomplishing nothing, on to my picks for NFL week 2.

dallas(-3.5)overMIAMI Miami is one of the few teams that seems to be about as good as I thought they would be--rotten, in this case. I love Dallas for this game. I still haven't taken the fantasy football plunge, but I suspect that I love the Cowboys players for fantasy this week too.

seattle(-3)overARIZONA As long as I'm flouting my plan to bet on dogs (home dogs at that) I may as well get my money in against the Cards.

CHICAGO(-12)overkansascity I'm counting on KC to make the Bears look good and give their fans hope. If I knew the Chiefs would make such a quick move towards the bottom I wouldn't have bet on them last week. Probably won't be the last time I say that.

Which reminds me, cincinnati(-7)overCLEVELAND Either the Browns suck this year or the Steelers are AWESOME. Mostly I'm leaning towards the former.

I'm tempted to tease Cincy along with the Colts, but so far I haven't figured out how to do this on Mansion, and I need to get some sleep.

ESPN Pigskin Pick-Em

I've entered the ESPN Pigskin Pick-Em--twice. I'm pretty sure this is allowed, in fact I think unlimited entrys are allowed. I have entered once as my wife to keep the entrys distinct. Since underdogs have outperformed favorites the past couple of years, on my roQQboTTom entry I am following an extremely simple strategy--I am picking all underdogs.

If you can call that picking.

For my wife's entry I am altering my strategy slightly. I am picking mostly underdogs, but see if I can improve my score by selecting a limited number of favorites. Here are my wife's picks. Mine you can derive from the newspaper.

saints(+6.5)overCOLTS If this was a playoff game I might agree with this line. On the other hand, didn't the Colts spend a few weeks establishing their running game at the beginning of the last couple of seasons? The Colts will get their share of blowouts, but who says this will be one of them? It'll be interesting to see if the Colts remember how to play defense, or if last year's Super Bowl run was an anomaly, a freak, a fluke....

(I am on Mansion right now checking spreads, since I only have $36 on bodog. On Mansion they tell how many people have bet on each side of the money line, over, under, and odds lines. Fascinating. At least it is right now, since I just discovered it. Before I could tell which way the money was going because the sites would adjust the vig, but this adds alot of detail. Now I might be able to see how lopsided the money needs to get to move the line. Of course, Mansion is largely British, so this could skew things a bit, since they aren't letting Americans bet there. Anyway, I am going to include the action with these lines, so we'll see how this goes. Before continuing, read the last sentence of the previous paragraph, or the next one won't make much sense.)

You know, like Pittsburgh's run the year before. Speaking of which,
BROWNS(+3.5)oversteelers 3.5 point road favorites vs divisional rival has to be a suckers bet, right? (It's 4.5 on bodog) Not that these Browns inspire confidence or anything. But why waste time justifying picks when I'm just reflexively picking dogs? Unless I think of some snide remarks, of course...

630chiefs(+3)overTEXANS541 In the old AFL, the Chiefs were originally the Dallas Texans. Oughta give the announcers something to jabber on about. Anyone besides me notice that the Jets got good again right after Herman Edwards left, while the Chiefs seem ready to cozy up to the Raiders at the bottom of the AFC West for a couple of years?

823BILLS(+3)overbroncos1236 Not that I can't think of any snide remarks, but lets move on....

579titans(+7)overJAGUARS2123 Jags have Tennessee outclassed, but Vince Young is a huge X-factor, and this is a divisional rivalry, so this is the sort of game my strategy is geared towards.

556RAMS(-1)overpanthers450 Neither of these teams inspires much confidence, but Stephen Jackson is supposedly the smart money's #2 fantasy pick, and the Panthers have to travel to a dome, so...Voila! My first favorite picked!

1092PACKERS(+3)overeagles528 Can Packers steal enough games to con Brett Favre into returning for another year? The answer starts here...or at the next Favre press conference perhaps. Can't wait for another season of those.

453falcons(+3)overVIKINGS3288 not much to like about the Falcons here. On the other hand, the Saints won their first game after Hurricane Katrina, so maybe the Falcons can have a similar start after Vick/PittBull-gate. Looks like they remade The Longest Yard a couple of years too soon. Who needs Adam Sandler when you have Michael Vick? And after he gets out, Vick could join the Ricky Williams All-Stars (Toronto Argonauts) smoking Ricky's Heisman Trophy bong aboard the team plane. My original picks for this role (Brett Favre and Doug Flutie) don't seem interested, so what the heck? Could have all the excitement of Michael Jordan's minor league baseball career, with twice the wackiness!

195patriots(-6)overJETS223 I'm not crazy about this pick, as it involves betting against a home dog in a divisional game, as well as one who tends to be underrated, but the Pats are favored to win it all, and deserve to be. I think in the end I may bet the dogs in all the games where I'm not taking the favorite, and sit those exceptions out. At least that will keep me from going against the Pats. Of course, it will also prevent me from betting on the Pats as well....

49dolphins(+3)overREDSKINS281 I'd love to bet against both of these teams. The 'Skins are one of those teams that is perennially overrated but always disappoint. For instance, they are currently 40-1 to win the Super Bowl on bodog. Meanwhile, in Miami the bad news is that Nick Saban has ditched the 'Fins. The good news is that Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington have moved along as well. Crappy matchups like this are what my strategy of indiscriminately taking the points is designed for. Semidiscriminately? Whatever.

384SEAHAWKS(-6)overbuccaneers443 Not crazy about giving 6 with this 'Hawks team, but the Bucs could be gloriously bad. Throw in a road game on turf with a noisy home crowd who hasn't yet had their hopes dashed. On the other hand, Jeff Garcia is running the Tampa Bay offense, and last I checked the Bucs had a "D," so who knows? I just might sit this one out.

548bears(+6.5)overCHARGERS2464 I guess if the Colts and Saints can square off in the season opener, the other Super Bowl team ought to play the other conference runner up. Oh wait, that was the Patriots. We'll see how long it takes Rex Grossman to suck this year. This might be a little early. Or he may just extend his suck streak from last year.

2537RAIDERS(-1.5)overlions424 Remember what I said about the Redskins being a 40-1 shot to win it all? The Lions are a 30-1 shot. Still, I think the 'Skins fail more expectations than the Lions, because all I expect from the Lions is that they will draft Mario Manningham early in the first round next year. And that they will consistently underperform on the road. Yes Virginia, home teams are in caps.

COWBOYS(-3.5)overgiants Unfortunately the bodog line is -6, which I think is too much to lay here, even against the Giants, who seem poised to have a dismal season. I'd break my rule here at 3.5, but not 6. 2224giants(+6)overCOWBOYS194

123ravens(+3)overBENGALS153 The public seems to experience irrational exuberance when considering the prospects of teams with offenses as potentially sick as Cincy's. Or perhaps the linesmakers are remembering Baltimore's 15-0 disappointment against the Colts in the playoffs. To me this game feels more like a pick, give or take a point.

2022cardinals(+3.5)over49ers2466 Too bad the bodog spread is 3, which sounds just about right. I like what Mike Nolan is doing with the Niners, while the Cardinals seem doomed, as usual. This pick could really test my resolve to take underdogs. App State could probably take Arizona--and cover.

A couple of things stand out. First, a few teams are getting overwhelming action relative to the other side. These are:

NYGiants(+6)
Oakland(-1.5)
Chargers(-6.5)
Washigton(-3)
Minnesota(-3)
Green Bay(+3)
Jacksonville(-7)

The game receiving the most action was SanFrancisco vs Arizona, I suppose because it is on Monday night. the Giants, Vikings and Chargers received the most unbalanced action.

Okay, the smoke has cleared, and I have submitted my bets. They differ somewhat from what you see above, mainly in that I (only) bet on 10 of the remaining 15 games, as follows.

kc(+3)overHOU
BUF(+3)overden
CLE(+4.5)overpit
STL(-1)overcar
GB(+3)overphi
atl(+3)overMIN
SEA(-6)overtb
OAK(-2.5)overdet
nyg(+6)overDAL
bal(+3)overCIN

I am bucking public opinion the most by taking the Vick-less Falcons. I went with the crowd, taking the points and the Giants, even though I expect them to disappoint this year. Six is too much. Unfortunately I waited too long before taking the Raiders, and the spread moved a point. I chickened out on the Titans, Bears, Dolphins, Pats and Cardnails, to the point where I'm tempted to take the other side (except fro the Titans). Seattle is the big departure from my principles, as New England would have been, had I given the points.

Screw it. ten(+6)overJAX. Of the above picks, I'm in agreement with The Sports Guy on St Louis, Atlanta, Seattle, Oakland, and Tennessee. He pretty much talked me into Atlanta and Tennessee. I don't mind disagreeing with him, since while I tend to agree with his reasoning, he tends to be wrong.

My gut likes going against Buffalo, since they always seem to start off slowly, as do the Packers. They don't like to start winning until everyone writes them off. Is their home field advantage any good when it's still warm out?

Michigan and Notre Dame are both 0-2, sucking much of the local drama out of the young football season. Murphy's law likes the Irish in this year's matchups of the teams I hate, because Lloyd Carr may be on his way to getting fired, while Charlie Weiss' job looks secure. Murphy wants a disaster, and the Wolverines just may be that disaster. Though a win against Notre Dame wouldn't completely save them. The Big Ten may be an overrated house of mediocraty, but is it soft enough to let the Wolverines go 8-3 and salvage their year. I say no. 7-4? I say yes, though I am enjoying projecting them to 5-6....

God Save the Prince

Just watched a piece of the 10th anniversary of Princess Diana's death (the memorial, or whatever you call it, that is), and saw about 20 seconds of Prince Harry's speech. Does anyone besides me see the striking resemblance to Sid Vicious? He's got the same face, and very similar fucked-up hair, though a bit lighter. I'm not asking if it's just me. It's not. I just don't think anyone else has pieced this together.

Somebody should have noticed this years ago. If some baker can discover a Cinnimon Roll that looks like Mother Teresa, how can it be overlooked that one of the lads with a shot at becoming King of England looks like the late bass player form the Sex Pistols? Along with founding British Punk Rock, the Pistols' abuse of the Union Jack was more aggressive than any band not named Iron Maiden or Def Leppard.* I have a Union Jack sticker on my Snowboard. Superimposed on the flag is a cameo of Queen Elizabeth. Superimposed over her eyes is "God Save the Queen." Superimosed over her mouth is "The Sex Pistols." See how ironic this is? If Sid Vicious wasn't already dead, they'd have to kill him.

Fortunately he died in 1979, 3 years ahead of William and 5 ahead of Harry, which should prevent all but the most dedicated of conspiracy theorists from doubting Harry's parentage. (Sid's alive and holed up in a bunker in Antartica? The hell you say.) I suppose it's good that Princess Di didn't die of a heroin overdose in the Chelsea Hotel.

* The British are all about exploiting their flag for commercial gain, so I suppose this "abuse" can't truly be considered abuse if it is officially sanctioned, or whatever it is. Crass yet enlightened, relatively speaking, I guess.