Bad Beats on Super Bowl Weekend

During the Giants decisive touchdown drive I took a proposition bet poll on espn.com. If bodog has the results I will see how I did. Most of the outcomes had been determined, but since I missed part of the game, and since I watched the 2nd half in Korean, I don't know most of the answers, though I could infer some of them, for instance, since the Giants got the ball first, I infer that they won the coin toss, since teams always seem to want the ball first, whether this decision makes sense or not. On the other hand, I knew the Giants scored first, and that this score was a field goal....

Anyway, here is the poll, if I can cut & paste it, that is.


1) How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the national anthem?

65.4% 1:42 or longer
34.6% Less than 1:42

This IS the Super Bowl, so everything is overblown....why not? According to a live Blog I found later the over/under was 1:44, and he thinks the over won.

2) Which team will win the coin toss?

54.6% Giants
45.4% Patriots

Unless the Pats elected to kick despite having the highest scoring offense of all time I'm right.

3) Will the entire FOX pregame team pick the Patriots to win?

53.1% Yes
46.9% No

I'm torn on this one, and really curious as to the answer.

4) Which team will score first?

67.0% Patriots
33.0% Giants

For sure.

5) What will be the first touchdown celebration?

33.7% Spike the ball
15.2% Other (any option not listed)
13.5% Kneel on the end zone
13.1% Do a victory dance (any kind of dance)
7.8% Moon the crowd
3.7% Give the ball to a special guest on the field
3.3% Jump into the stands
2.5% Dunk the ball over the goal post
2.2% A team choreography involving two or more players
1.8% Give a military salute
0.8% Lay on the floor
0.5% Kiss a cheerleader
0.3% Do a somersault
0.3% Dance with the cheerleaders
0.3% Hug the goal post
0.2% Continue running all the way into the dressing room
0.2% Kiss a teammate
0.2% Do pushups
0.2% Kick the ball into the stands
0.1% Put on a Navy or Army hat
0.1% Write his initials on the ball
0.1% Use an imaginary/real cell phone

I think Lawrence Maroney did a dance, but I'm not sure.

6) Will the team that scores first win the game?
67.9% Yes
32.1% No

I said no to hedge in case the Giants drive failed, though I went with them to win by 1-6 below, the only outcome possible other than Pats by 1-6, unless one of the teams managed to return a pick for a TD or something....Yes, I hedged in a meaningless poll--what a pussy move by me....

7) The first score of the game will be a . . .

73.6% Touchdown
26.4% Field goal or safety

For sure.

8) Which team will commit the first penalty?

67.8% Giants
32.2% Patriots

I took the Pats because they had 5 penalties to only 4 by the Giants. The fact that they had the ball first, and the fact that refs stopped calling offensive holding in the playoffs also makes me favor a penalty by the Pats defense....

9) Which team will have the longest rush?

61.5% Giants
38.5% Patriots

The Giants longest rush was 13 yards, the Pats longest was 9.

10) What song will Tom Petty open with at halftime?

31.3% Running Down A Dream
23.1% American Girl
20.9% Free Fallin'
8.7% Even The Losers
6.3% Learning To Fly
3.5% Don't Do Me Like That
2.4% You Got Lucky
2.1% I Need To Know
1.7% The Waiting

Halftime shows tend to be jingoistic displays of rampant patriotism, so this seemed like the most likely choice. If Tom Petty had any balls/sense of humor he would have played Even the Losers jsut because the game was close. Of course that would make him into this year's Justin Timberlake*--Fox would probably be pissed, though last I knew they were at least more hip than CBS, NBC and ABC....I guess not hip enough to end the geezer parade though....**

11) Which team will commit the most turnovers?

73.5% Giants
26.5% Patriots

Can't believe they didn't even consider the possibility that the two teams would commit an equal number of turnovers, which they did. Do the bookies win if it's even? I figure the Pats were probably favored by a half-turnover to avoid this.

12) Will the New England Patriots score in all four quarters?

60.2% Yes
39.8% No

No!

13) Will this be the most-watched Super Bowl in history?

72.7% Yes
27.3% No

Haven't heard yet.

14) If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the 1972 Miami Dolphins during the trophy presentation?

61.4% Yes
38.6% No

I guess not....

15) How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV broadcast?

68.2% More than 4.5 times
31.8% Less than 4.5 times

I would definitely have said more pregame, but I don't think I ever saw him. If he was with Peyton I couldn't tell.

16) What will be the exact margin of victory?

23.3% Patriots win by 7-12 points
22.1% Patriots win by 13-18 points
18.8% Giants win by 1-6 points
11.1% Patriots win by 19-24 points
9.7% Giants win by 7-12 points
5.2% Patriots win by 1-6 points
2.3% Patriots win by 37 or more points
1.9% Patriots win by 31-36 points
1.9% Patriots win by 25-30 points
1.7% Giants win by 13-18 points
0.9% Giants win by 37 points or more
0.5% Giants win by 19-24 points
0.2% Giants win by 31-36 points
0.1% Giants win by 25-30 points

Had this one narrowed down, of course, and the Giants sure looked like they were going to score....

Total Votes: 33,915

I should have given the following disclaimer with my pick: I have a degree from Michigan State and I attended Boston College. Plaxico Burress went to MSU, and Tom Coughlin was coaching BC when I was there. Does that make me biased? Maybe.

I didn't pick the Giants to cover because I was rooting for them--I rooted for the Giants because I picked them. Even then, I expected the Pats to win, and I would have been satisfied as a handicapper as long as the Giants covered. After Randy Moss scored I realized there was no way the Giants weren't covering. If Eli Manning threw an interception and the Pats got a quick insurance TD, that would have put them up 11, and I had 11.5 points. Nice.

Johan Deal Overshadows Super Bowl

It's a few hours before the Super Bowl, and I've taken the Giants +11.5. The spread apparently started out at 13.5, but by the time I checked it it had dropped to 11. Personally, I see the Pats winning by right about 10 or 11, so this number really scared me, but 11.5 seems like just enough to take the Giants, and feel sort of safe. Not really safe, but not terrified either.

A blowout wouldn't shock me at all, but I'm envisioning a game where at the end everyone is raving about Belichek's masterful coaching putting the Pats over the top to win by 8 after leading by about 3 for most of the game. The media will go on and on about how this is the greatest team ever, while ignoring the fact that they played worse than expected again, leaving the betting public high and dry for the 8th or 9th week in a row. I came into the playoffs planning on going against the Pats each week, but was scared out of my plan by Jacksonville's 2nd half collapse against the Steelers. I recovered from this lapse, taking the Chargers +11 the next week, and would have had a good weekend if I hadn't taken the Packers -8. I've been having such a rough time of it predicting games that it's barely interesting to me to post prior to the games. But, this is the Super Bowl, so there you go. Giants(+11.5)overPats. Maybe next year I'll be able to watch some football and my handicapping will improve.

Meanwhile, now that the Mets have acquired Johan Santanna, I've taken them to win the NL pennant at 5-1. I don't quite think this is a bargain, and I'm not quite convinced that the Mets have what it takes (despite having more talent than anyone else in the NL), but by the time the season starts the Mets will be somewhere between a 2-1 or 3-1 favorite for the pennant, and about the third favorite to win the World Series, so 5-1 on the Mets will seem like a bargain in a couple of months, whether they choke in the end or not.