Go COCKS!

Took South Carolina(-3)over Florida State...FlaSt is getting stuffed after an early turnover, but just got a FG...Go Cocks! I'm putting my 5-0 streak in jeoparday, but I can't resist the cock!

A picture of me and Mike B. made it on to covers.com. Me and Mike drinking Whiskey and smoking cigars...sort of like I was doing today, minus the brotherhood, but plus the bbq chicken & babyback ribs...

Why is Steve Spurrier the Old Ball Coach? Why is Brett Favre the Ol' Yogurt Slinger? Say no more.

Line moves against Baylor

I thought I'd already posted my Illinois(+1)over Baylor bet, but I haven't, probably because I bet it while I was on the phone with Pugilant Mick last night. This line opened at Baylor(-1.5), but at game time it has moved to Illinois(-2). I thought I'd waited too long, and I probably had, since Illinois(+1.5) was available for a while. The line has moved 3 points since I bet though, and I like that I got my money in before that.

It's the beginning of the 2nd quarter, and Illinois is up 9-0 on three field goals...make that 16-0. I was starting to wonder if the FGs might come back to bite Illinois in the ass, but they've gotten into the end zone now. Thye've shown that they can move the ball against Baylor, and Baylor has yet to do the same.

Checking back, I did talk about this game in my post Christmas is no reason to stop gambling, but I hadn't bet it yet at that point.

Illinois is about to close out a Texas Bowl win--they lead 31-14, and just took over ow downs, after Baylor drove down to their five yard line. I just bet Oklahoma State(-5.5)over Arizona. The Cowboys score points in droves, and 'Zona limped into the Alamo Bowl, losing their last 4 after working their way to a 7-1 record and a #13 ranking. I'm more suspicious of Arizona's motivation than I am of OKState's. We'll see if I'm right, though I may have to check the score in the morning, since I have to get up early.

Illinois scored on a 50+ yard bootleg with under a minute to go. 38-14 Illini. This prompted a discussion in the Box as to weather or not they ought to have been falling on the ball.

Last night Pugilant Mick made some noise about how Maryland & East Carolina wouldn't be able to put up 71 points, the over/under for that game. I bring this up

a.) because Maryland won 51-20, hitting the number exactly

b.) because this shows just how accurate Vegas can be

c.) because I'm going to call Mick and fuck with him.

It's 2AM. Oklahoma State won, 36-10. I'm on a 5-0 run. Probably just jinxed it.

Dirty South MNF

I've taken neworleans(+3)over ATLANTA. Most other books have ATL(-1) to ATL(-2.5). I guess I can't pass up a bargain, though the vig expired on me twice while I was trying to bet. Usually teams that get the huge vig tend to end up covering, at least in the games I remember. Of course, the true bargain happens when I get a push that I wouldn't have gotten, like in baltimore(+3)over NEW ENGLAND.

I thought about betting uconn(+7)at PITTSBURGH. Seven seems like alot for what should be evenly matched teams--if the rankings are at all accurate. UConn did go from unranked to the top 10 a bit quickly, and their last 5 wins have been against nobodies. Vegas seems to think they are frauds, and based on the vigs, the public agrees...or the sharps do. Most books moved this line to 7.5. Right now Pitt is up 37-28 at the half, within a shot of the spread.

Jags, 'Niners overrated

I only bet one other game today, other than the one I already mentioned,

STLOUIS(-2)over sanfrancisco. That was washington(+7)over JACKSONVILLE. I bet this game late, when the Jags announced that Maurice Jones-Drew wasn't playing. I already thought the 'Skins were a bit undervalued at +6.5, and +7 against a Jones-Drewless Jag team seemed like a real bargain.

It was. Washington jumped out to a 10-0 lead, and held on for a 20-17 overtime win. The beauty of OT at (+7) is Jacksonville could have scored a TD, and I still would have won, since they don't kick extra points in OT.

The Rams gave me a couple of scares before eventually settling down and winning, 25-17, I wasn't crazy about this score, since it had the potential for a backdoor cover. Fortunately this didn't happen.

This line eventually moved to StL(-3). Maybe the betting public is off the 'Niner Kool-Aid.

I went 1-1 on the NBA yesterday. NEWYORK(-1)over chicago came through for me, as the Knicks won, 103-95. LALAKERS(-3)over miami? Not so much. The Heat won this one, 96-80.

Mainly I'm glad I didn't bet the Celtics, since they got beat at Orlando. Boston had a 14 game win streak going, and I thought they might have the Magic outmanned, even on the road. Maybe this Gilbert Arenas trade will work out for them.

Christmas is no reason to stop gambling

Merry Christmas. The NBA is on today, and I've bet NEWYORK(-1)over chicago, and LALAKERS(-3)over miami. I'm staying away from Boston at Orlando, though the Celtics are tempting at (+2).

I've taken STLOUIS(-2)over sanfrancisco. The 'Niners don't seem to be able to settle on a starting QB, so Troy Smith starting is more of a sign of instability than a talent upgrade, at least to me.

Knicks-Bulls is halfway through the 3rd quarter, and New York is up 73-69...73-71. Right now the extra vig I paid to get the line down from 1.5 to one seems well spent.

Texas A&M-LSU is off the board, on bodog at least. I'd like to see the Aggies win, but I'm looking at betting the Tigers. Beating 'Bama and losing by 7 or 8 to Auburn and Arkansas is more impressive than the 5 or so straight wins that A&M have rattled off. Can the 12th man turn Cowboys Stadium into a home field for the Aggs? This is the only way LSU(-1) makes sense to me. Louisiana is only a state away, and I expect they'll be there in force as well.

I like Illinois(+1.5)over Baylor, though again, I'd like to see the Bears pull off the win. Baylor has some impressive wins this year, but when they lose they've tended to get blown out. If the Illini can figure out how to stop Robert Griffin III they should be okay...if not they may still be okay--Baylor isn't big on playing defense.

I guess wrong, watch Fargo

Lots of new QBs playing this week, so I figured I'd bet against as many of them as possible. It didn't work out like I'd hoped. I had DALLAS(-7)over washington. The Cowboys led 30-7 early, but Rex Grossman rallied the Redskins, and they tied the game at 30 before eventually falling, 33-30.

Nothing new about Kerry Collins, but while the grizzled vet is no Rusty Smith, the Titans have been playing badly enough that I took houston(+1)over TENNESSEE. Oops. Tennessee won, 31-17. Not even a heartbreaking finish for the Texans.

I expected the Ravens choke genes to kick in, and took neworleans(+2)over BALTIMORE. They did, blowing a 14 point lead, giving up a 15 yard Brees pass to Lance Moore with 11:34 to go that tied the game at 24. From that point on the Ravens took over, ultimately winning,
30-24.

If Dallas had won by six, and Baltimore by 3, I still would have lost both bets. Both of these games featured comebacks to ties, though one had a Super Bowl winning QB coming back against a top defense, while the other had a rusty Super Bowl losing QB coming back against a team with nothing to play for.

I have NEWENGLAND(-14)over greenbay. Right now the Pack are up 10-7, on a 66 yard TD to James Jones from Matt Flynn. Flynn was the reason I faded the Pats.

It's 17-7 going into the half. Plenty of time for the Pats to come back, but the way this is going I donlt see them covering....Or do I? The Pats just scored. Apparently most of the damage was done on a long kick return by one of their offensive linemen. I'm not sure who, or how far, because I've been watching Fargo on the other channel.

The Raiders and the Tim Tebow led Broncos were tied at 7, 14, 17, and 20 before the Raiders pulled away and won, 39-23. I had OAKLAND(-8)over denver. Tim Tebow made some nice throws and had a 40 yard run for a TD, so I expect everyone will be sucking his cock after this, but let me point out that he was only 8 for 16 for 133 yards. Not bad for his first start, but lets not get carried away.

Last week I had DALLAS(+4)over philadelphia. The Cowboys backdoor covered, 30-27. I had tampa bay(-3)over WASHINGTON. The Redskins backdoor covered, but botched the extra point and lost, 17-16.

I had JACKSONVILLE(-4)over oakland. The Jags won and covered, 38-31. I had cincinnati(+9)over PITTSBURGH. Wasn't enough. The Steelers won, 23-7.

The week before that I had houston(+9)over PHILADELPHIA, and barely lost, 34-24. I had denver(+9)over KANSASCITY. Denver lost but covered, 10-6. I had
TAMPABAY(+3)over atlanta. The Falcons won and covered, 28-24.. I had $$ on pittsburgh over BALTIMORE, but I botched it by teasing that game with the over--
pittsburgh(+9)OVER 31. The Steelers won 13-10, but the OVER didn't come close.

Dome, Packers Collapse

Just got back from playing poker overnight at Chocktaw after interviewing Bill Simmons yesterday, & got some bets down.

I took JACKSONVILLE(-4)over oakland. This is the kind of line where I try to fade the favorite, but I'm all about going against West Coast teams traveling to the opposite coast. Especially when the West sucks. The Jags are playing well, and could win their way into the playoffs.

cincinnati(+9)over PITTSBURGH I'm willing to concede that Cincy sucks, though it may seem less so if you didn't expect much from them in the first place. The Bengals always seem to play tough against their own division though, and the Steelers haven't exactly been setting the world on fire. Give me the 9 points.

Darren McFadden just took one to the house. Raiders, 7-0. That flushing sound is me losing money. That creaking sound is the Colts sneaking into the playoffs through the back door.

tampa bay(-3)over WASHINGTON Not crazy about giving points on the road. This is one of those bets I talk myself into because of fantasy football. I've been debating between Chris Ivory, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams (TB) and LeGarrette Blount for my flex all week. It turns out the 'Skins are 28th against the pass, and 27th against the run. I started Blount.

I've taken DALLAS(+4)over philadelphia. This game opened at 3.5. The vig seems to indicate that this line will bring in some Cowboy money, so I don't think we'll see 4.5. Dallas has been playing well, and I continue to think Phily is a public team right now, especially since Michael Vick is leading the Pro Bowl voting for all positions.

The roof of the Metrodome has collapsed under the weight of an assload of snow. Previously the game was delayed until Monday because of the snow. Now it's delayed, and will be played at Detroit's Ford Field. Will this negate Minnesota's home field advantage? Will the Giants prolonged traveling take it's toll? Where will the Vikes play their remaining home games?

For now there is no line. Once the oddsmakers figure out the above, and whether or not Brett Favre will play, we'll see a line.

LeBron lowers my winning %

I kicked ass last week, going 4-2 on the NFL, 5-2 if you count that I had Atlanta over Green Bay at both ATL(-2) and ATL(-1). The Falcons won, 20-17. This game came down to the wire, just as I expected. It would have been a good candidate for a double tease--maybe even a quad tease.

I won on HOUSTON(-6)over tennessee. It looks like the Rusty Smith era has ended as quicky as it began. The Texans won, 20-0, and Andre Johnson decked Cortland Finnegan.

I lost on SEATTLE(+2)over kansascity, as the Chiefs finally won one on the road, 42-24. Are the days of the Seahawks being money at home over? I may have to limit bets on them to games against their divisional rivals.

I lost on OAKLAND(-3)over miami. The Raiders lost, 33-17. What's the world coming to?

The Bears made me look like a genius, taking down the Eagles, 31-26. I had CHICAGO(+4). I'm not a bit confident about my bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, and I'm not ready to live in a world where I have to take the Bears seriously, either. They could end up a two seed the way it's going. I take the Bears and Falcons seriously at home, which could translate to one of them representing the NFC this year.

The Chargers came through with their usual demolition of the Colts, winning on the road, 36-14, despite zero contribution from Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, and less than usual from the still gimpy Antonio Gates. I had san diego(+3)over INDIANAPOLIS.

I've started off this week 0-1. I took houston(+9)over PHILADELPHIA, and the Texans justified my belief that this line was inflated, coming from behind to take a 24-20 lead, before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns and losing 34-24. I still think this was a solid bet.

Meanwhile, I bet against the Miami Heat twice, taking detroit(+12), and CLEVELAND(+6). Apparently the Heat have been a good team to bet against this year, but this may be changing, as I lost both of these bets.

I have denver(+9)over KANSAS CITY. Nine? Apparently somebody's drinking the KC Kool-Aid now. The Broncos beat the Chiefs 49-29 a few weeks ago. I've heard the arguement that Todd Haley will try to run up the score as a vengeance move. That assumes he will be in a position to run up the score. I say the Broncos keep it close. It seem like there are alot of 9 point lines in the last couple of weeks.

I've also taken TAMPABAY(+3)over atlanta. If nine points is the line for overrated home favorites, three points seems to be the standard on the road. The Bucs have won alot more than anybody thought they would, and they've kept their losses close, excepf for when I bet them against the Saints. Oops.

I liked buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA, and I wasn't alone. This line is down to 5.5, and I'm not sure how I feel about it there. Still tempted, I guess. Actually I can pay -120 vig to get it back to 6. I'll do it. buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA. Last week you could have won with BUFFALO(+7)over pittsburgh, jacksonville(+7)over NYGIANTS, and tampabay(+7.5)over BALTIMORE.

In armaggedonish games like last week's Iron Bowl I like to look for a double tease that makes sense to me. With Alabama and Auburn's contrasting styles, I liked 'Bama and the under, and Auburn and the over. While the early going made Alabama and the over look like the most likely result, Auburn came back and made both of my bets cover.

In the case of Pittsburgh at Baltimore, I again expect a tight game (when was the last time somebody won this game by more than four points?), and I like the over, since teasing the number gets me the insanely low pittsburgh(+10)over BALTIMORE, OVER 32. While I don't hate BALTIMORE(+4), OVER 32, the +4 is not ideal, (lines closest to a pick are best for this kind of tease) I will take the Pittsburgh end of it. These teams give up enough points to make me feel good about the teased over, and they're so consistent that I feel like you can count on at least 16 points from each of them, though no more than 24 from either. I don't have a problem with teasing the OVER up to 45 or 46, though I'm not going to do this myself. These teams score more than peple give them credit for, though they didn't last week.

I'm not convinced Kerry Collins is the cure for what ails the Titans, but he might be. I never feel like I quite have a handle on what the Titans and Jags are going to do...other than last week. Bring back Rusty Smith! I like what he did to Chris Johnson's fantasy numbers, since there's a good chance I play him in the playoffs in one of my leagues.

Of the five contenders left in the Bunny Slope league, two took QBs in the first round, one took theirs in the 4th round, and the other two waited until late. Overall, I think our scoring system made QB play largely irrelevant. If anything, top QBs seem to be a liability because they keep you from drafting top RBs and WRs. Here are our top teams, and the QBs they've started this year.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3)--Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Kevin Kolb
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4)--Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck
Camden Convicts (8-4)--Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Jon Kitna
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4)--Brett Favre, Michael Vick
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5)--Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler

The only good thing about my 4th round Matt Schaub pick turned out to be that Tony Romo got injured seven games in. I think I've benched him about as much as I've started him. Ryan Fitzpatrick has outscored him, despite playing two fewer games.

Eli Manning is the 10th scoring QB this year. His main problem was that it took Pugilant Mick a while to figure out he doesn't completely suck. Matt Cassel's main problem (for Mick) is that his resurgence came after Mick dropped him.

Kyle Orton turned out to be one of the draft's biggest steals. He has outscored Peyton Manning at this point, and is 3rd in QB scoring.

Brett Favre was the 5th overall pick, possibly the dumbest pick in the entire draft. Baby B. also traded Jay Cutler away for Steve Slaton. He made up for his stupidity by trading for Michael Vick, though he had to give up DeSean Jackson to get him. I think he dropped both Vick and Favre, though he had the sense to pick Vick back up. Unfortunately, he picked Favre back up as well.

Daddy B. took Peyton Manning with the first overall pick, whcih is way too soon. That is why he is stating Justin Forsett at RB, though it could be worse. Baby B. is starting Jason Snelling and Michael Bush this week, and has played Snelling and Hightower for most of the season. This weakness at RB is why I am going to crush him today, and possibly knock him out of the playoffs.

Life isn't always fair. Here are our teams in order of points scored.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3) 1697
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4) 1537
Camden Convicts (8-4) 1508
PR Cowboys (6-6) 1483
Team Cheesehead (5-7) 1445
Show Me Your TD's 1438
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5) 1436
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4) 1392
Pixburgh Stillers (4-8) 1372
Evil Robot Army (6-6) 1292
Florida Blue Falcons (5-7) 1289
Anaheim Shamieh (2-10) 1093

As long as Argentina loses, Camden and Irish keep the 2 & 3 seeds. Since they have stronger teams, it does me no good to try to throw the last game to influence my first round opponent. Even if I determined that I would rather play Tennessee, the risk of ending up aginst Camden sooner than necessary makes the juice of an attempted rig worth considerably less than the squeeze.