Picks...and Fumbles!

The network is down in Afghanistan right now, which means no football! Fucking bullshit. I have a gamecast open for the first game. Here are my picks:

SANFRANCISCO(+3.5)over neworleans

denver(+13.5)over NEWENGLAND

houston(+7.5)over BALTIMORE

GREENBAY(-7.5)over newyork

Other than the Pats game, where I don't really care about the outcome, I am rooting against all my picks. Tebow winning again would be fun for the unintentional comedy of it, but I don't really want to convert to Tebowism and start worrying about the rapture if he goes all the way. Call me selfish. On the other hand, I can't bring myself to root for any team that plays defense as badly as the Pats. Other than the Saints, that is.

Speaking of the Saints, they are down 14-0, in what is turning into a turnover fest...except the 'Niners haven't returned the favor. After the last score, the gamecast seemed to think New Orleans fumbled the kickoff, but recovered it, but now it's SF ball, so apparently they didn't. This is getting ugly. At least it is making me look like a genius.

I know the Ravens are capable of destroying opponents at home, but I can't bring myself to give more than seven points to a team playing against Joe Flacco. I've heard that Ravens(-1.5), Packers (-1.5) will be a popular tease, but I think I would rather go Packers(-1), Pats(-7). I know nobody is supposed to be able to run on the Ravens, and they stopped Houston before, but every time I watch the Texans play, that running game seems unstoppable.

The 'Niners settled for a field goal. Three touchdowns and the Saints cover. Three touchdowns and a David Akers field goal, and the 'Niners cover but lose.

Right now the last play is under review. It looks like the Saints may have lost a 3rd fumble, along with one Brees pick. Four turnovers in under 18 minutes is no way to go through life.

Finally. The Saints retain possession. Lets at least keep this interesting.

My fantasy tight end just scored. JIMMY GRAHAM! 17-7.

I'd love to see the Giants upset the Packers, but 7.5 sounds reasonable. Eli is capable of keeping the Giants in a shootout, and the D-line is capable of getting to Rodgers, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Go back and watch some 2007 Packers and see how much better the 2011 Rodgers is than the 2007 Favre. If you don't get to Rodgers, you are toast. Six point toast? Maybe, but I'll lay the 7.5.

I went 3-1 last week. I was right on the Texans, Giants, and Broncos, and wrong on the Lions, though an errant whistle cost the Lions an early 21-7 lead. The Lions would probably have more trouble holding a 21-7 lead than the 'Niners will have holding a 17-7 lead, but still.

Speaking of which, the 'Niners just punted. I need another Akers field goal to feel good about my pick. I get nervous every time the Saints get the ball back.

17-14, on a 25 yard pass to Colston. Can the 'Niners burn 4:09 and go into halftime with a lead? Brees is 20/25 for 188 yards. Makes you wonder what the score would be if the Saints hadn't already committed three turnovers.

Second half, and the 'Niners just got a field goal. Needless to say, a six point lead is GREAT for my pick...especially if I still want the saints to win.

The big gain on the drive was a 57 yard punt, five yard Darren Sproles return, Darren Sproles fumble. Other than that, they gained 24 yards on eight plays.

Insanity. More points scored in the last four minutes than in either half. My worry when the Niners got down close was that tehy would force OT, and the Saints would end up winning by four (new rules!) or six. Instead Vernon Davis gets his second TD, and the Niners win by four. Something tells me they'll have a rough time of it next week if they don't get five turnovers, but hey--the Packers D sucks. I'm going to go look for a TV. I should have had one for that game.

Still no TV, and New England is up 35-7 at halftime. I think I'm going back to bed.

Late Playoff picks

I'm stuck in Kuwait, and haven't had internet since yesterday morning, so I didn't get my playoff picks out on time. I'm also rusty, since I haven't been able to bet all year, so you probably don't want them anyway.

The internet here is so ungodly slow that I couldn't even get my Falcons at Giants pick in on time. It's still 0-0, six minutes and 4 punts into the game. NYGIANTS(-2.5)over atlanta. I was already leaning toward the home team, but on 5dimes.com, you can actually give less than 3. They have enticing spreads there all the time, which is why this is the site I tried to open an account on earlier in the season...in fact, I HAVE an account there, it's just too much of a pain to put $$ in it from Afghanistan. When I get back, I will bet here, and so should you. The only other thing worth considering would be to take NY(-2.5), and atl(+3). If you could get atl(+3.5), this would be my recommendation.

Backing up, I had HOUSTON(-3)over cincinnati. Basically a fantasy homer pick, since Arian Foster and Andre Johnson came up big in fantasy for me last year. Along with that, Houston's running game is usually downright scary. In fact, it may be the scariest thing in the league this year, after the Packers, Saints and Patriots' passing attacks. Of course, this one is over, Texans, 31-10. And that running game was downright scary. Interestingly, to get to the Super Bowl, the Texans must face one or both of the defenses capable of shutting them down (Baltimore and possibly Pittsburgh), or one of the passing games capable or running the score up enough to negate said running game (New England)...unless Tim Tebow beats both the Steelers and Patriots. If they get to the Super Bowl, they will probably need to beat one more of these scary passing games (Green Bay or New Orleans) or possibly the only other team capable of stopping their running game (San Francisco). I guess I'm still not crazy about Houston's chances, much as I LOVE that running game.

In both an actual and fantasy homer pick, I had detroit(+10.5)over NEW ORLEANS. How homer? In addition to being a Honolulu blue blooded Lions fan, I had Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best last year, and Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Titus Young, and Matthew Stafford this year. Detroit almost got me the back-door cover everyone was talking about, when they closed to within 38-28 in the 4th quarter, but the Saints extended their lead to 45-28 for the front-door(?) cover. At the end of the game, Drew Brees was downing the ball near the Lions goal line, so New Orleans could have blown the door off the hinges and hung 50. I usually don't have to worry about this level of irrationality from my picks, as the Lions usually do me a favor and miss them.

Atlanta has gotten Eli Manning to illegally ground the ball in the end zone for a safety, and the Falcons are driving, up 2-0, and up 4.5 on my small as possible spread. If the Giants get their shit together, this smells like a game Eli brings them back to win by...2. 21-19, for instance. That would suck.

I'm taking DENVER(+9)over pittsburgh. I don't trust the Broncos to score, but I don't exactly trust the Steelers to score either. I see this one ending up 13-7, or 16-10. Could it end up 20-3? Sure it could, but give me the points. I know everybody would rather hear hyperbole about Tebow sucking, or miracles, but I think a tight, low scoring game is just as likely.

Looks like the internet here sucks enough that I can't publish, either. Fucking bullshit. Giants just scored...7-2. The semi-mouthy Falcons fans near me are shutting the fuck up...for now.