Pennsyltucky Dave stiffs me

I was going to watch Michigan State-Penn State with Pennsyltucky Dave, but he cancelled on me because his wife wanted him to clean something, and because his sac is kept in her purse. I treated it like he'd forgotten our anniversary, though in a silent, sulky way, rather than in a whiny female way. I feel like our bromance is on a creepy new level. The Cable Guy has nothing on me.

It's tough to find anybody else who gives a crap about the outcome of MSU-PSU in the middle of Texas. Eventually I called up N-Trail, since he is a Spartan Alum like myself, though I think he's been in California so long that he is relatively oblivious.

Time to get some bets down on the NFL. Yay.

ATLANTA(-2)over greenbay. Does this mean I'm finally drinking the Falcon Kool-Aid? More like the Falcons at home Kool-Aid, since they haven't lost in the Georgia Dome in awhile. Of course, the Packers have torched their last few opponents, and are one of the teams we can reasonably expect to have a decent shot at overcoming Atlanta's home field advantage. In fact, these two are on the short list of teams who may be the best in the NFC, along with the Eagles and 49ers.

Speaking of the 49ers, it looks like I'm taking the week off from betting against them, since the last time I backed the Cardinals at home against a crappy team, the Seahawks turned out to be not crappy enough.

Speaking of not crappy enough, the Seahawks are getting points at home. While I've been pulling for the Chiefs all year, this has not led them to win any games on the road. SEATTLE(+2)over kansascity.

In other games involving teams that suck, I like OAKLAND(-3)over miami. Teams that just got blown out (like Oakland, 35-3 at Pittsburgh) tend to bounce back the next week. Does getting shut out (like Miami, 16-0, home vs. Chicago) have the same effect? This line wasn't up a few minutes ago for some reason. I'd better bet it right now, before they pull it down again. The Dolphins are a mess right now. Traveling to the West coast is unlikely to help.

The Falcons line is down to 1.5. Should I bet it again?

I like the Bills getting 7 at home vs. Pittsburgh, and the Bucs getting 7.5 at Baltimore. Is this just because I have Steve Johnson and Mike Williams on my fantasy team, the Ol' Yogurt Slinger? Bill Simmons is probably right when he says the Bucs are the bad team you can count on to beat other bad teams. If I hadn't found other games I like I might bet these, but I'm staying away.

I actually got into a shouting match with a Bears fan at Old Chicago a few weeks ago about how much they suck, but I may take them hosting the Eagles. This is the sort of game the Eagles should win if my bet on them to win the Super Bowl is justified. Also it's the sort of game they should win if their receivers don't drop easy touchdown passes. If last week was what we can expect from the Eagles in a down week, they'll be fine. If it's true that you've got to lose to know how to win, this could be a rung on Philly's Super Bowl ladder. CHICAGO(+3.5)over philadelphia. Make that CHICAGO(+4)over philadelphia. I just paid the extra vig.

Houston keeps losing heartbreakers. Do they do it again this week? Against Titans QB Rusty Smith? Seriously, Rusty Smith? There's a reason bodog waited all week to but up a line. HOUSTON(-6)over tennessee. I find it a little strange that I can go all week without finding any lines I like, then find a ton on Sunday Morning. I think this week I can chalk most of this up to having to wait for this line to come out. And my reluctance to fade the Eagles and Chiefs.

If I'm going to bet the Chargers, now is the time, as the vig is heavy on their side. If bodog doesn't move the line to 2.5 (and they probably won't) the vig will just get even heavier. -130 is enough. sandiego(+3)over INDIANAPOLIS.

I've paid extra vig to get the Falcons down to ATLANTA(-1)over green bay. Not sure if this 1/2 point is worth it, but it feels more worthwhile to get this, since I already have ATL(-2).

Iron Bowl

I've done my classic double tease: ALABAMA(+3)UNDER 65, auburn(+11)OVER 51. I'm paying a -130 vig for this 14 point box, with the logic that a low scoring game should indicate things are going 'Bama's way, while a high scoring game should indicate the opposite. My gut likes Auburn and the under, however. My bets are more an indication of degeneracy than an opinion. This is the biggest game of the year, and I want some action on it.

Whoa--Auburn is getting exposed and hosed. 21-0 in the first quarter. It looks like I need to root for the UNDER.

Hmmm. The third quarter is winding down, and 'Bama leads, 27-21, for a total of 48. Right now I still have 'Bama and the under, and I'm within a couple of scores of hitting both teases. In fact, an Alabama FG will put me at 30-21, for a win and a push. An Auburn FG gets me the same thing. A 'Bama TD gives me a win and a loss, as Auburn(+11) wouldn't cover, 34-21. An Auburn TD gets me to 28-27, winning both bets.

Auburn just converted a 4th and 3, and look like they are about to score. If they take the lead right now I have to believe there will be at least two more scores. Unless these are a FG and a TD, giving me a push, I think the OVER is coming in.

Auburn just scored. 28-27. 55 points. Right now both my bets are winning.

'Bama is driving, and taking their time. This is good for my bets. 4th and inches, 8:23 to go. The Tide have rolled at least the required inch. 1st down.

McElroy just took a sack on another 4th down, and he hasn't gotten up. From my living room in Texas it looks like a hurt right shoulder. That brings a 4th down & 16. If Auburn scores my 'Bama tease can't cover...until 'Bama comes back at least. 'Bama has shanked a punt, and right now it sounds like Greg McElroy may have a concussion.

Auburn is driving, and just converted a 4th and inches. They don't look too interested in scoring, though. Good. 2:35 to go.

Speaking of not trying to score, it looks like Auburn just took a delay of game on 3rd and 9....no, they called timeout. 1:47 to go.

An Auburn sweep just got stuffed. 'Bama ball will be the best thing for my bets. At that point anything but a Tide turnover would put me in good shape.

4th and 10. If 'Bama doesn't convert, Auburn is in FG range....they didn't. 0:30 to go. Fall on the ball, Auburn!

They did. Cha-ching! Ballgame. Both my teases covered. In fact, my gut instinct that Auburn and the under would come in turned out to be right as well, since the O/U was 57. Wacky.

'Niners continue to suck...NCAABB!!

I've taken kansasstate(+5)over DUKE in the CBE Classic Championship Final. Really it should be KANSASSTATE(+5)over duke, since the game is being played in Kansas City, MO, which is so close to Kansas that most people think it's in Kansas. Has a home court advantage been factored in? If so, that would mean Duke is 8 or 9 points better. If that is accurate, KState won't be ranked #4 for long.

Really I should be hoping Duke wins, since Michigan State will jinx themselves if they elevate to #1. I almost hope State loses so we can keep off the top spot. Choke city.

Anyway, I was due to stick my toe in the water on NCAA hoops. Especially when KState is taking on #1. My first bet last year was KSTATE(-1)OVER #1 texas. I don't remember the score, but I know I won.

Only bet one NFL game last week, and Tampa Bay(+3) hammered San Francisco, 21-0. Everyone bet the 'Niners, so much so that I would have been given vig if I'd waited longer. This SF love shows no sign of relenting, as the 'Niners are favored by a point next Monday night at Arizona. Of course, the last time I bet the Cardinals I lost, so I may avoid this one. Betting against SF has been $$ in the bank though.

Crap. KState-Duke is a bout to start, and the line has moved to 5.5. Fuck it.

I go 2-1, Eagles insane, 'Niners suck

Last week I went 2-1 on the NFL, as Dallas(+14.5) won outright over the Giants, 33-20, St Louis(+6) lost in OT, but covered vs. San Francisco, 23-20, and Arizona(-3) lost outright to Seattle, 36-18. I've continued to fade the weirdly overrated 'Niners, and I somehow have $$ on every game decided 23-20 in OT.

I was sorely tempted to take Philadelphia(-3), but didn't. The Eagles romped to a 59-28 thrashing over Washington, jumping out to a 35-0 lead nine seconds into the 2nd quarter. Sick, but not as sick as DeSean Jackson's unfortunate comparison of the Vick-led Eagles to Pit Bulls, ready to get out of their cage and kill somebody. I guess if Jackson gets popped for running a dogfighting ring we can consider ourselves warned.

While it would have been nice to have some $$ down on the Eagles, I'd probably be getting killed if I bet all the road favorites I liked. Thsi was a revenge game for the Eagles though, and Donovan McNabb's sudden contract extension looks like one more indicator that Mike Shannahan and the 'Skins brain trust has no idea what they are doing.

Since it would still be nice to have some $$ on the Eagles, I've taken them at 9/1 to win the Super Bowl. While I doubt the Eagles will ever be as good as they were Monday night (not this year...maybe not any year) they just may have enough weapons to give everyone hell the rest of the way. I still have $$ on the Steelers at around the same odds--maybe 17/2.

Right now alot of teams are 8/1 to win the Super Bowl. How many?

Atlanta
Baltimore
Green Bay
New England
NY Jets
Pittsburgh

The next favorites are NYGiants and Phily at 9/1. Indy is 11/1, and the Saints and Chargers are 12/1. After that the Titans are 25/1, and the 'Niners are 50/1. I guess there are still some people sucking the 'Niner cock. Somebody needs to win the NFC West, unless the NFL suddenly changes the rules during the season.

Speaking of the 'Niners, I'm continuing to fade them. tampabay(+3)over SANFRANCISCO. Right now the vig is moving towards the 'Niners, but I'd be a bit surprised if this gets to 3.5

The Eagles are favored by 3.5 vs. the visiting Giants, and so far $$ is coming in on the road team. If this drops to 3 I may take the Eagles. Could be a big statement game for the NFC.

Cowboys wont disappoint--as long as they lose by 14 or less

I went 2-0 last week. Both Philadelphia and Atlanta showed why they deserved to be favored by more than I though they deserved, before ultimately failing to cover. Indy came from behind to cover vs. the Eagles, 26-24. Tampa Bay did likewise, losing to the Falcons, 27-21. I still can't believe I got 10 points in that one. During the game I thought I was +7.5 or 8. I suppose the Falcons have proven themselves that much more, since they just beat the Ravens Thursday night.

Tomorrow I have dallas(+14.5)over NEWYORKGIANTS. This game opened at 10.5, but was up to 14.5 by the time I saw a line. I bet it immediately. Usually teams that got blown out the previous week are good bets. Everyone seems to be convinced the Cowboys are imploding. Maybe they are, but I see them doing the 4 point loss kind of implosion they've been doing all year. When was the last time you saw a 14 point spread in an NFC East divisional game?

Meanwhile, the 49er Kool-Aid is a heady brew. That's why they're favored by six hosting the Rams. What have the 'Niners done better than the Cowboys, aside from be in a crappy divison? (And run the ball. Frank Gore is a stud.) Would the Cowboys be favored this week if the Giants were 4-4? Fuck no. stlouis(+6)over SANFRANCISCO. Nonsense.

I've also taken ARIZONA(-3)over seattle. Shouldn't the fact that the Seahawks are terrible on the road get the Cards another half point or so? Isn't Hasselbeck still out?

(Checking.....)

Matt Hasselbec is playing. This doesn't make me regert my pick, though it may make me keep both Mike Williamses on my Fantasy roster. And 3 Johnsons (Andre, Calvin, and Steve). My WR corps is sick. My bench may outscore some teams this week, whcih is a nice way to say I may be making some mistakes with my roster.

The fact that Seattle got blown out last week may bode ill for my 'Zona pick, or at least bodes ill for my logic for picking the Cowboys.

I've been behind recapping my picks from the last few weeks, so let me try to catch up.

October 16-17: minnesota (+6)over PURDUE: Not so much--Purdue, 28-17. 0-1
olemiss(+21)over ALABAMA That's more like it--'Bama, 23-10. 1-1
oakland(+7)overSANFRANCISCO Nonsense--SF, 17-9
TAMPABAY(+4.5)over neworleans Other weeks make this pick plausible, rather than laughable--Saints, 31-6
baltimore(+3)over NEWENGLAND Shoulda won this one--got a push instead, Pats 23-20(OT). Games like this one make me wonder how the experts can stand by their Ravens Super Bowl picks. 0-2-1 on the NFL.

October 24: pittsburgh(-3)over MIAMI I was a replay away from winning this one--Steelers 23-22.
newengland(+3)over SANDIEGO Check the stats, and you wonder how the Pats won this. I blame Norv Turner. Pats 23-20.
CAROLINA(+3)over sanfrancisco People love the 'Niners for some reason. Panthers, 23-20. Are there any 23-20 games I didn't bet on?
minnesota(+3)over GREENBAY Packers, 28-24 Pack shows they can win despite all the injuries--at least against these purple stiffs they can. 2-2 for the week. 2-4-1 on the NFL so far.

October 30-31 michiganstate(+7)over IOWA This one hurt--Hawkeyes, 37-6
pittsburgh(+1)over NEW ORLEANS Pittsburgh beat the crap out of the Saints, but turned the ball over--Saints 20-10.
OAKLAND(-3)over seattle--It pains be to be this dialed in on the crappy western teams--Oakland 33-3. Of course, with the Seahawks I just take them at home and fade them on the road.
tennessee(+4.5)over SANDIEGO I take consolation in the fact that nobody else can figure out the Chargers either. Chargers, 33-25. 1-2 on the NFL, 3-5-1 so far.

That brings us back to my Indy and Buc picks, which I aced. 5-5-1 on the NFL in the past month.

Week 9 Fantasy Musings...& Picks

I need to recap my recent picks at some point, but at the moment I'm too busy trying to decide who to start at flex and at QB this week. At QB I'm debating between Matt Schaub and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At flex I'm weighing Pierre Garcon, Tampa Bay's Mike Williams, LaGarrette Blount, and really that's it. Jahvid Best, Steve Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Seattle's Mike Williams don't make the cut.

ESPN likes Pierre Garcon the most, but they don't seem to be factoring in the return of Austin Collie. Since Mike Williams is a clear #1 receiver, I'm leaning his way. LaGarrette Blount faces a Falcons defense that hasn't given up much to opposing RBs, though they've been a bit more generous with WRs; one more reason to start Williams, and pray that Jacob Tamme gets me the points that Garcon does not.

I'm leaning Fitzpatrick over Schaub. While I might not do so otherwise, I have Arian Foster and Andre Johnson starting, and playing 3 Texans makes my team way too Texan dependant. If Schaub gets a bunch of points it almost guarantees that Johnson is going off as well. On the other hand, last week Foster and Johnson got me about 60 points, while Schaub got me (or rather my bench) a whopping five.

It's sort of sad that my opponent can start a stiff like Mark Sanchez and have a good chance of outscoring me at QB. At least he hasn't noticed that Vernon Davis has a bye.

Somehow enough Eagle $$ came in to eleminate the extra Colt vig. Fine by me. I've been trying to figure out why the Eagles are favored by 3, and the only thing I can come up with is Michael Vick love. Vick is enough of a wild card that I don't mind fading him, especially getting points. indianapolis(+3)over PHILADELPHIA.

The Bucs at Falcons line opened at 8 or 8.5, and has balooned to 10. Did Josh Freeman break a leg? If so, I hope I piece this together before I start Mike Williams today.
tampabay(+10)over ATLANTA