The Girl of your Dreams

Well, we are in that magical time of year when the MLB season intersects with the playoffs of both the NBA and NHL. What does that mean? Well, for anyone who fancies themselves a sports handicapper it is easy to fall behind.

I don't know if I'm behind, but my blog is. Remember when I said that I wasn't crazy about putting my money on a team, then hoping that they lose for the next 150 or so games, but I did this very thing a few days ago? (I know, I know, nobody reads this blog--humor me!) And how I would explain this below? (Just nod yes.) Well, I will now explain this ever-so-cryptic statement. (The suspense is killing you? Fuck you.)

Anyway, I was getting to it in my next post, when I updated the status of the recent Mets-Braves series. At the time the Mets had best record in baseball (10-3), and a four game lead over the Braves, if my memory serves me. On www.bet365.com the Mets were a 3-1 shot to win the NL pennant, same as they opened the season, and the same as they are now. On www.bodog.com they were a 2-1 shot within the last week or so, and are now an 8-5 shot. Why the difference? My suspicion is that bet365 gets substantially less action on American sports because they are based out of the United Kingdom.

At this point the Mets are 22-12, 3 games ahead of the Phillies, and 7, yes SEVEN games ahead of the Braves. So at this point my $12.12 I put on Atlanta to win the NL East doesn't look to be one of my better investments. (I bet $12.12 because that was the amount it took, at 33-20, to win $20. If the Braves showed signs of being a contender my intent was to possibly bet that $20 on them to win the NL pennant. At the time the Braves were a 10-1 or 12-1 shot on bet365, and the odds move slowly enough there that I expected to have enough time to evaluate the Braves before the odds shifted too much. In a somewhat convoluted way it would be like betting $12.12 to win $200. IF the Braves can win the East they would certainly be worth betting on for the NL pennant at nearly 20-1.

The pennant race is long, but at this point the Braves don't look like the horse you want to back. The Mets, on the other hand, still are looking good. But indulge me while I put this in perspective.

A couple of weeks ago the Mets were 10-3, four games ahead of the Braves. That's great, but it is still early. This is sort of like walking along 42nd Street and spotting some cutie about an Avenue away in a black miniskirt. Is she really hot? Hard to say, she's pretty far away. Now the Mets are 22-12, 3 games up on the Phillies, and 7 up on the Braves. This is sort of like when you speed up to try to catch up to the broad of your dreams to get a better look. You saw her turn North on 9th Avenue, so you hurry to get around the corner before she turns again. You spot her about a block and a half North of you, and thank your lucky stars that it is Sunday night, so the streets aren't crowded. Wow. Great legs, and her determined walk makes her ass shake side to side in a way that is nearly hypnotic.

Lets say that the Mets stay in first past the all star break, but then hit a losing streak, and almost drop into a three-way-tie for first in August. Woosh! That was that bus that almost hit you as you crossed 44th St, nearly hypnotized by those legs and ass. Lets say that the Mets make the playoffs. Thats when traffic on 46th St. holds her up and gives you a chance to catch up to the ass of your dreams. And lets say that she somehow senses your presence, and turns to face you, and you make out a hook nose, a prominent Adams' apple, and maybe even a five-o-clock shadow. That's the Mets, down two games to the Astros, and trailing 4-1 in the bottom of the fifth inning. Ick.

I hope you didn't put junior's college fund on the Mets at 3-1.

The Mets look good right now, but so do alot of girls ten steps in front of you, and some of them, um...aren't. Aren't good? Aren't girls. They're probably extremely good though, if you want to throw your money down.

Go for it.

Baseball Season Begins (Cont.)/Investment Strategies

The New York Mets are off to a fast start, with an MLB leading ten wins in their first 12--um...make that 13 games. Two games ago they held off the Atlanta Braves, 4-3 in what was Pedro Martinez's 200th win. This was a bit of a statement game for the Mets, since their first several games were against teams that are not expected to do much this year, whereas, the Braves do SOMETHING every year. They win the NL East. The last time they did not do this they were still in the NL West, which they also won. Since the divisions were realigned the Braves have owned their division. The Mets would like the Braves to know that this year just might be different!

Then again, it might not be. Atlanta bounced back and beat the Mets 7-1 the next game. The Braves may be off to a slow start (7-8, 4 games behind the Mets), but they aren't going down without a fight. They have 147 games remaining to try to catch up. And, while so far I haven't found any particularly attractive bets for either pennant, about a week and a half ago I threw down on the Braves to once again win the NL East.

Now, while I don't hate them the way I do the Yankees, as a long time follower of the other team in New York (no, not the Islanders--we're still talking baseball here...stay with me--) you won't catch me pulling for the Braves--much.

But here's the thing about the Mets. Right now they look like this year's edition of the White Sox, right down to the sexy little black uniforms, not to mention the cross town rivals that give them an unhealthy inferiority complex.

Ugh. While the White Sox might sometimes wonder why they should ever feel inferior to the mighty mighty CUBS of all things, the Mets don't need to wonder. Not only are the Yankees the most successful franchise in any sport, ever, their legions of fans are more than willing to explain to you the who, what, where, when (win?) why and how of their team's superiority. (Except for the times they just yell, "METS SUCK!" Take your pick.)

But the White Sox hit their early schedule like a freight train and just kept moving. By the time anyone knew what hit them, they were already about ten games ahead of everyone else. They had that kind of a lead, but were still a 9-1 shot to win the pennant. Well shit. I got my money down, tell yew whut. 9-1? Shit yeah! (Of course, I also threw down on the Orioles at 16-1, two days after I could have had them at 50-1, so what the heck. Yes, I did bet on both of these teams at the same time, if you were wondering.)

Now, I'm not saying the Mets won't get off to as good a start as the White Sox. They just might. The problem is that with the high profile acquisitions they made in the offseason, everyone expected this. Everyone predicted this.

For you Wall Streeters out there, there was no IPO on the '06 Mets. At least not one you could exploit. The Mets started the season at 4-1 to win the NL pennant. Currently they are a 3-1 shot on bet365.com. At bodog.com they are now a 2-1 shot, inching ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals, a 9-4 shot.

Fuck that. You're better off buying a piece of the Statue of Liberty off a transvestite on 9th Avenue. (Can't make it to 9th Ave? Check EBay. I didn't see this option at bodog....)

How did transvestites come to own the most famous statue in the Western hemisphere? Well, they don't. But 70% of the tour guides at the statue are transvestites, and it is possible to join their union and get a piece of their profit-sharing in exchange for your union dues. It's only fitting, since, after all, the Statue is easily our most visible cross dresser. (What, you only now noticed those masculine features? Thats what they call denial. D-E-N-I-A-L. "Give me your poor, your tired, your huddled masses, yearing to be free to dress up like a woman, free from getting rolled by some ignoramus in the parking lot of some honky tonk...")

But alas, your uncle Roqq doesn't own a piece of the Cross-dressing Tour Guide Union. Heck, I haven't even joined Amway. But I can tell you that the going rate for flogging with a riding crop my a lovely he-she at La Maison deSade in lower Manhattan circa 1999 was $20.00. No, I did not partake, I saved my money and put it on the Cardinals in '03 for the NL pennant...

The price of a good flogging may be a bit higher these days, but I'll bet it's not too unreasonable. After all, this isn't the year 2000, when .coms were making millionaires left and right, and roughly half the transvestites residing in the Big Apple had bought plane tickets to Houston, where they serviced the board of directors at ENRON at ridiculous rates....Ridiculous? Shit, it was a tax write off most of the time, or at worst was shareholder money...

Yes, fourtunes were won and lost in those wild days. Some of the he-shes invested in oil. Others in real-estate. As for the rest of them, lets just say that nobody starved vending ectsacy, bolivian cocaine, or top-shelf plastic surgery. Not at the turn of this century.

The richest demographic in New York isn't Jews any more. They are still a very respectable 3rd place, but they have been passed by Koreans, and at the top of the heap, homosexuals.

Now Roqq Bottom doesn't blame the queers for driving up the price of real-estate, not even in New York. Are they a factor? Probably. But they're also a factor in the proliferation of nice restaurants, bars and cafes in alot of areas. Why? Because those fags have taste, damnit (hold your jokes please, I'm almost done). They know what they like, and they're willing to pay for it. And they'll keep paying, because they have money to burn, and most of them aren't hunkering down to save up for Junior's college fund like you are. Who do you think is keeping this economy going anyway?

But as rich as they as a group are, there are still some transvestites downtown saving up for that surgery, that will give you a good flogging. And these days, it can't cost much more than twenty bucks.

I haven't given up on picking the pennant winners. You can find me down at La Maison de Sade, reading the sports page, and drinking a Henekin.

If I can't find an undervalued hot team by the All-Star break, I can always get lashed instead.

Go Mets.

The New Evil on Party Poker/Baseball Season Begins

Well, I've been back from the field for about a month now, but I've been bingeing out on poker a bit to much to blog, and it seems to me that it would behoove me to start blogging again

(a.) For the sake of the blog

(b.) As a break from poker.

Since returning from the field with $1615 in my Party Poker account, I have risen to a high of $1964, and I have now rode (ridden?) my stack down to its current low of $1243. Factor in the unexplained $200 bonus that PP threw my way, and I am sitting uneasily on a bankroll a little over a grand, down almost $600 for the month.

You can see how I might need to take a break.

Unfourtunately, even as I speak here, I am playing in two $1-2 Stud games.

Some break.

I've been playing alot more 7 card stud lately. The hold-em action on Party has dried up so much that I think it is time for me to branch out into other games. Originally I believed that
the action had dried up on Party because they had given the axe to their various "skins." While this still seems likely, now I believe there is a new culprit.

Six handed games!

With the proliferation of six handed games, many good ten handed games have ceased to exist. The maniacs and fish who have been my bread and butter (I particularly enjoy, and often excel in loose-aggressive games) have largely moved over to six-handed games, where their unruly and often ill-advised styles of play (I hesitate to say "strategies") are much closer to being correct, and are far more difficult to deal with.

I have read several articles where the author prefers short-handed games because he is able to win at a higher rate, and is able to exploit the weaknesses of his opponents more often. If one is adept at playing this sort of game I'm sure that this is true, but I am not, and I tend to lose my way. I am becoming convinced that I must make improving my short handed game a priority, as this seems to be where the profits lie. Certainly the action is there.

Meanwhile, baseball season is finally underway, and I am looking to extend my streak of picking (and winning money on) pennant winners. To recap, in 2004 I had the Cardinals at 10-1 for the NL pennant, and in 2005 I had the White Sox at 9-1 for the AL, and the Astros at 8-1 in the NL.
In '04 I did not make any bets on the AL race, because I was convinced that it would come down to the Yankees and Red Sox. Since everyone else was convinced of this as well it was impossible to get a good price on either of these teams. If my memory serves me, the Yankees started out as the favorite at about 2-1, while the Sox started out as about a 4-1 shot, but the odds may have been even shorter than that. By the end of the season the Yankees were about a 1-1, or perhaps a 6-5 shot (maybe 5-6!), and the Sox were abot 2-1.

Now, a couple of things are at work here, keeping me from betting on that race. One is my reluctance to bet against a streak, the streak in question here being the 86 years since the Red Sox won the World Series. Now, in that time the Sox won the AL pennant four times, if my memory serves me, the last time in '86, so we are only talking about an 18 year streak since their last pennant. But what we are really talking about is the streak of Red Sox futility against the Yankees. How many times have the Sox triumphed over the Yankees when both teams were good? I'm not sure, but I don't think the answer is one that warms the heart of the Boston faithful.

The other is my undying hatred of the Yankees. I'm not crazy about putting my money on a team, and then hoping that they lose for the next 150 or so games. (Though I did this a few days ago, as you will see below.) Having said this, if I could have gotten 7 or 8 to one on one of these teams I wouldn't hesitate to throw down on them. Heck, with those odds I'd have to throw down on both of them if I could. But these teams are routinely overrated, at least as far as the money odds goes. If you ever get the Yankees at 10-1, it will be in a year when they deserve to be a 20-1 shot.

By way of comparison, currently the Toronto Blue Jays are a 14-1 shot, while the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers are 25-1 shots (to win the AL pennant.) The Atlanta Braves are a 20-1 shot to win the World Series. Rather than continue to add to this post, I'll continue this discussion in my next post.