Should have posted this Thursday 22 Apr

CHICAGO(+4)108, cleveland 106--Bulls win outright. OKLA CITY(-3)101, la lakers 96--Thunder win & cover. PORTLAND(pick)89, phoenix 108--oops. At least I got the best line....This one opened at Portland by 1, and some places moved up to as much as 2.5. 2-1 on the night, 8-2 overall.


I have no idea what to make of the Celtics. Miami is favored by 4 at home, and a letdown makes sense for Boston, but I may stay away.

Spurs extend my streak

Only bet one game today. I didn't completely trust san antonio(+3.5)over DALLAS, so I teased it to san antonio(+8.5), UNDER 199. San Antonio won, 102-88, giving me a 9 point cushion, and a 6-1 record for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the zig-zag theory said the play in the other game was on Orlando, as the Magic failed to cover in game one. I stayed off it, since I don't think a game that only misses the actual spread by a point or two is a significant indicator of results for the next game. Well, ORLANDO(-9)over charlotte covered easily, as the Magic romped to a
92-77 win. The zig-zag has done just as well in the games I've avoided as in the ones I've bet.

Zag, Zag

Kevin Garnett got himself suspended last night, dropping the line for tomorrow's game to BOSTON(-1)over miami. Think I'll avoid this one. Meanwhile, the zigging and zagging is a bitch, because the lines have been dropping instead of inflating. The books are on to this strategy.

So be it. I need to take oklahoma city(+6.5)over LA LAKERS, PHOENIX(-8.5)over portland, and milwaukee(+7.5)over ATLANTA. I'm staying off the Suns for now, so I'm not highlighting them, but they are the zag....Maybe I should--after all, I would have covered with chicago(+11)over CLEVELAND, if I'd had the guts to pull the trigger, as the Bulls lost and covered, 112-102. Right now utah(+7) is up on DENVER, 65-51. Lotta game left, but I like my chances.

Went 2-0 yesterday, as Denver beat Utah, 126-113, covering the 5, and Boston beat Miami,
85-76, covring the 4. Meanwhile, Atlanta beat Milwaukee, 102-92, and Cleveland beat Chicago, 96-83. I don't remeber what these lines were, but I'm pretty sure both favorites covered, though not by very much. I think ATL was favored by 8 or so, and Cleveland by 10 or 11. I imagine those lines aren't going to move a whole lot. If I follow my system, I'm going to have to take all the dogs, unless the lines do something unexpected.

Today my only pick was DALLAS(-5)over san antonio. I'm late posing it here, but I put it on covers.com earlier. At the moment, Dallas is up, 93-84, under four minutes to go. Hopefully this score holds up.

It's held up...barely. Dallas won, 100-94. I'm 3-0 so far. This shouldn't move the line much.

In the other games, the Lakers beat OKC, 87-79, covering the 7.5, and Orlando beat Charlotte 98-89, failing to cover the 10. Not sure what this will do to the lines. Right now Portland is up by a point at Phoenix. The Suns are favored by 9.

Two of tomorrow's lines are out. Cleveland is favored by 10.5, and Denver is favored by 7. I think I need to take the dogs, though I'm a bit leery of going against the Cavs, and I'm not crazy about backing road teams either. utah(+7)over DENVER.

Covers has a nice article about prop bets on the NFL draft...unfortunately, there aren't many places where you can bet on it. Too bad, because the reasoning behind most of the recommended bets seems pretty solid.

Chad Millman's latest column explains the zig-zag theory, which is what I'm trying to use. Apparently each series resets when the teams change venues, which I did not realize until now. Meanwhile, I can still fall back on my college hoops plan of backing home teams whenever the lines are tight. Fine by me. Of course it's easy for me to say that when I'm 3-0 doing that.

NBA Playoffs. Yay.

NBA Playoff time. My entire betting strategy will be to fade the winner the game before, as the spread overreacts & inflates. Not entirely sure which way to take it when a team wins but doesn't cover. Does the spread move with the winner, or the team that covered?

Meanwhile, since no games have been played yet, I am falling back on my college strategy of taking home teams in games with tight lines, which gives me two plays for day one.

BOSTON(-4)over miami, and DENVER(-5)over utah. Don't expect any analysis of the teams--it's not like I've been following the NBA or anything.

View from the Brink

So....

The UConn women won another hoops title.

Baseball's started. My Fantasy team, roQQboTTom of the Order, is winning, though only because I'm matched up against the most inept team in the league...so far.

We're almost two games in.

Good thing my Fantasy team is winning, or I'd have a rough time trying to be interested in baseball. Looking ahead to June, the NBA Playofffs and the Stanley Cup will be winding down, leaving me teetering on the brink of nothing but baseball.

Ugh.

With the dog days of Summer fast approaching, it came as a relief that Donovan McNabb got traded to the Washington Redskins. While I won't pretend to know how this one will shake out (which could make me the only one--this may not last for long--), the move came as a breath of fresh air. A nice distraction from the NCAA Finals and opening day.

Had Michigan State beat Butler, I wouldn't require the same sort of numbing....or I'd need it two days later. Really, I should be thanking Butler for keeping us from getting trounced in the Finals. I'd rather not join U of M in losing to UNC and Duke in consecutive years. Having watched the final, I suspect Duke wouldn't have embarrassed us to the same degree as the 'Heels did last year, but that would only serve to make the loss more painful.

What the hell. Thanks, Butler.

I'd really like to do a podcast on the McNabb to the Redskins deal, but Mr. Clean is in North Carolina, and Pennsyltucky Dave is in...Afghanistan. You thought he was in Pennsyltucky? Well, spiritually he probably is.

While I don't particularly care one way or the other about the Eagles, I enjoy watching those who do torment themselves. Makes for a good podcast, if not good television. Gets me over the Spartans losing. Too bad it won't happen until September or so.