I Wager at the Bellagio

I played in the 1-2 No Limit game overnight at the Bellagio, winning $301. I waited until their Racing and Sportsbook opened, and hung out there until 7:30 (10:30 EST), when I called back to Cuba to record a piece for our Saturday Morning Show. After that I threw down some loot on the Sunday games.

I considered betting on GEORGIA TECH(-2.5)over north carolina, but didn't, as the vig was up to -135. Too bad, because Tech took care of business, 24-7.

I took san fransisco(+7)over MINNESOTA. This game could show us whether the Niners are for real or not. Even if they're not, I think 7 is too much. What has Minnesota done so far, other than beat up on some crap teams? I think these two are similar teams, except that the 49ers are less proven, if not unproven. I think they may be proven enough to win the NFC West, with a first round exit from the playoffs. On the other hand, that's what I expected from the Cardnails last year....

I took nygiants(-7)over TAMPA BAY. This is the game where I'm really going to wish I'd managed to pick up Steve Smith. For that matter, I'll probably really wish I had Mario Manningham, since he is a biiger deep threat, but he got drafted in our league. Smith was available last week. The downside of being the top 1-1 team in our league (8 of 12 teams are 1-1) is that I'm 10th to act in our waiver order. The bottom team got Smith. I wonder how many others would have taken him ahead of me. Meanwhile, Brandon Jacobs is due for a big game. He's done nothing for his fantasy owners so far.

(Incidentally, I'm doing really well betting in games where my fantasy interest is running the other way, to include the Giants over Dallas , and the Niners over Seattle last week. I had minimal fantasy interest in the Jets-Pats, but there I bet contrary to my bet on the Pats to win their division. I think I took the Pats at 2/9, so I stand to take a nice hit if they don't come through. (Not to mention my bet on them to win the Super Bowl, at 4-1, which I've pretty much written off.) On the other hand, I lost going against the Falcons (I own WR Roddy White) but they covered.

I took new orleans(-6) over BUFFALO. On bodog I would have had to give 6.5. I keep thinking the line is 8, but that was my own personal guess befoer the lines came out. The above games had the same lines live and online.

I didn't take carolina(+8.5)over DALLAS. Instead I came back to my dive hotel room at
Circus Circus and took carolina(+9)over DALLAS. Word. In a similar vein, online I can get atlanta(+5) over NEW ENGLAND, instead of 4.5. I'm still thinking about that, as well as going back to the Bellagio, to take chicago(-2) over SEATTLE, since the Bears are -3 on Bodog. This line opened at -1. I'm still not sure I trust Jay Cutler on the road for my fantasy team, for whatever that's worth. Especially when Flacco and Gerard are going up against the Browns and Texans.

VEGAS!

After 3 days of flying for me, one for my wife & kid, I'm in Vegas

I broke even last night at the Mirage. I'm sort of pacing myself and saving the big poker rooms for the weekend. Meanwhile I'm scouring the football lines for bargains. Right now I like carolina(+9)overDALLAS, but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I also like
new orleans(-6)overBUFFALO. Sure it's on the road. I just don't think the Saints have mch trouble right now beating any but the strongest teams by less than a TD. Come to think of it, the Saints took care of business on the road last weak, vs. the McNabb-less Eagles.

I ought to give up on teases, but the nygiants(-7)TAMPA BAY line could be quite compelling. So could PHILADELPHIA(-8.5)kansas city. green bay(-7)ST LOUIS too, for that matter....Am I saying I don't trust these teams to win by a TD? Maybe I am.

I expect this trip to be a letdown. I should have titled this post "vegas?"

Saints, Ravens get sick action

I didn't bet any college games this weekend, after last week's poor showing. I did consider Tennessee (+30) over Florida, and Washington (+18-19) over USC. Oh well. I would've looked like a genius.

Right now I have carolina(+7)overATLANTA. I waited until last night to bet this game, which was 6 all week. I got it at 6.5 and paid some extra vig to get 7. It's probably a suckers move, but 7 is a big half point. Ironically, I need Roddy White to get me some fantasy points, so I'm a bit conflicted here.

I took NYJETS(+4)over newengland. I guess the line opened at 6 or 6.5, but the cowards at bodog wouldn't post the line until it stopped moving. Based on the vig, it appears that money is still coming in on the Jets. I'm curiousto see if the line gets to 3.5 by game time, in an hour. According to Chad Millman, taking the Jets after the line moved this much is a sucker's play, while getting 6.5 would've been a wiseguy play. My consolation is that my own guess for the line was ne(-3.5), so I'm still getting better than that. So far I've been within a point on probably 70% of the lines (I guess them at the beginning of the week, ahead of Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal),
whatever that's worth.

Oh yeah, Wes Welker is injured, a knee I think. I'm guessing the Pats are ready with a replacement. They had better be, because Welker would be their main safety valve when the Jets blitz, as they did 70% of the time last week. Right now I'm glad I drafted ahead and behind where Welker was picked, because at the right number I would have taken him.

The team in my league that has Tom Brady is in such disarray that I'm not even worried about facing them in week eleven, as much as my team could get taken apart by injuries by then. If I get a chance I will go through it here, just for a laugh. The nicest thing I could say is that his bench are a bunch of deep sleepers. He probably has 6 or 7 candidates for comeback player of the year, which is to say, if they don't resurrect their careers (or at least their fantasy careers) they are pretty much worthless.

I have nygiants(+3)over DALLAS. I need Witten to make some plays, and I need Brandon Jacobs to not have a big game. If Adrian Peterson runs wild against the Lions a may not be worried about this by the time this game kicks off Sunday night. Speaking of Vikings, I picked up DE Ray Edwards for this game, hoping that the Lions, who did not take my advice and pick up Left Tackes Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher, give up some sacks. I am also rooting for Matt Stafford to not get hurt. Fair and Balanced, that's my motto too.

I've been considering the Eagles since the game was a pick. This morning I decided that even at +2 the Eagles are too much of a risk. Now it's 2.5, and you need to pay a 3 point vig. They give you a vig on the Eagles. Apparantly bodog is determined to not let the line go to 3. I'm thinking about the Eagles again. 35 minutes to game time.

Meanwhile, Drew Brees is leading the Saints in 300 style chants. I think I'd be more inspired if the home defense was doing this, especially since the Eagles wear Michigan State Spartan green, or used to, at least. I think the league is more interesting if the Saints start off 7-0 or so than if they get smacked down in week 2 by a team without a starting QB. Jeff Garcia is their new backup, and Vick can play next week. If I don't bet this, I'm hoping that Saints lines get exhorbatantly high, so I can go against them, if I dare.

Chad Millman also likes the Bears (+3) at home against Pittsburgh. I'm not sold on Cutler vs the Steelers defense, especially when the Steelers are playing on 10 days rest.

Meanwhile, I have taken SANFRANCISCO(-1)over seattle. Hard to say how this game shakes out, or this division, for that matter. I like the Niners' defense, and I think Seattle is a different team on the road. I'm going up against Frank Gore though, so I hope he gets injured and Glen Coffee runs wild. Mmmmmmmmmmm...coffee....

The Ravens vig is up to -150 with tehm getting 3 at San Diego. This is insane. I may have to take San Diego, which pains me, since I have Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and LeRon McClain on my fantasy team. On the other hand, I also have Steven Cooper and Darren Sproles. The
Chargers(-3) are +130. There is no straight up odds bet on this game. I can't remember seeing lines like these before.

It looks like $$ is coming in on the Dolphins(+3.5). I expected the opposite, and I was going to jump on Indy before the line got any bigger. Now I may wait, to see if I can give just three.

The Packers line started at 9, and was one of two I hit exactly. It went up to 9.5, but is now down to 8.5. Interesting. Cincy may just keep this one close.

Fantasy & Reality Clash

Ugh. I knew San Diego would be overrated, since they are every year, but I thought they would lay waste to Oakland. Similarly, I didn't expect Buffalo to put up much of a fight against the Pats. So both favorites pull out last second wins by the hairs of their respective taints, the Pats 25-24, and the Chargers 24-20.

Meanwhile, I seem to be making bets that conflict with my own fantasy interests. My fantasy opponent's only hope was for LaDanian Tomlinson and Wes Welker to have monster games. Of course, meanwhile I find myself rooting for their success for my wagers' sakes, while hoping that they get tackled at the one so that someone else can score.

The potential for similar entanglements is definitely there in Week Two. I am starting Joe Flacco after his monster opening last week, and I also have two Ravens running backs. I also have Darren Sproles and could start him, and I am hoping to pick up Charger linebacker Stephen Cooper off of waivers. (I probably won't get to, since I have to go last, but still.) I could end up rooting for Ray Rice to get five yards up the middle, where it will be easier for Cooper to tackle him. Wierd.

There probably won't be any ganbling implications for me though, at least not when the Ravens visit San Diego. I wanted to take Baltimore if the line opened too high, but bodog isn't giving a line yet. Apparently the line opened elsewhere at Chargers by five, but has already dropped to three. As much as I like Baltimore, I want more than three when they go to the West Coast, even if the Chargers are overrated.

The Giants at Dallas also has fantasy implications, and I am more likely to get involved here. Since about the last 5 or 6 games last season I've thought the Giants were a bit overrated. In fact, I bet against them the last two times they played the Eagles. Both times I was getting points, and both times the Eagles won outright. Throw in last week's game against the Redskins, and I've been pretty down on the Giants lately.

I expected their overratedness to continue, and I figured the linemakers would make them about a 3 point favorite at Dallas. As much as I love to hate the Cowboys (with the new exception of my fantasy tight end, Jason Witten), I was very ready to get three from the Giants at home.

As it turns out, Dallas is favored by three. I figure the line ought to be somewhere between Dallas by one, and New York by one. With this line I think I have to take the Giants. Apparantly having their way with Tampa Bay's secondary is enough to get the Cowboys overrated, at least for now.

Meanwhile, this week's fantasy opponent has Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs did very little last week, but I think he could have a big day against Dallas, since their run defense isn't as good as Washington's. Jacobs' production tends to run hot-cold, since he gets relatively few yards, but lots of touchdowns. Alot of his players go up against shoddy defenses this week. Not as shoddy as the Detroit Lions, who get to entertain my Adrian Peterson, this week, but still.

Roddy White was probably my biggest disappointment form week one, and I would like to see the Falcons get him the ball more. On the other hand, they are favored by 6 against the Panthers, and probably don't deserve to be. All Carolina needs is a non-atrocious start from Jake Delhomme to cover, or perhaps kick the crap out of Atlanta. So I'm probably taking Carolina. Right now I'm waiting to see if the line goes to 6.5.

In games that don't impact me fantasy wise, New England is a four point favorite at the Jets, despite their shoddy Monday night showing. I may have to get involved here, despite pretty-boy rookie Mark Sanchez, who looked better on Sunday than he did in his GQ spread last Spring. All the buzz from people who watched the game says that the Jets defense looked scary. Unfortunately, all the highlights showed Sanchez celebrating a la Brett Favre, with a bunch of man hugs and running around with his arms in the air. So I have only second hand opinions about their scariness. On the other hand, New England looked like shit, and though Tom Brady looked Stetson model hot the whole game, his arm only heated up at the end.

I'm on record as taking the Pats to win the Super Bowl at 4-1. Is my campaign to win this $$ back on Pats losses about to begin? It might be. Oh, New York's Jericho Cotchery is in my opponent's lineup. Not sure if he starts, though. He also has Brandon Marshall, T.O., and Patrick Craton...and Kevin Curtis...and Chris Chambers. I don't think he had all these receivers yesterday....

God. I just realized my opponent has touchdown vulture Willis McGahee, who kept my Ray Rice from going over 20. I doubt he starts in front of Frank Gore or Brandon Jacobs, though. If McGahee starts it could make for some emotional red zone action. I could end up giving Stephen Cooper alot of man love if he can stuff McGahee. And I'm going for the Ravens.

The other game with no fantasy implications for me is New Orleans at Philly. With Donovan McNabb not playing, the game is a pick. The Saints go from playing one of the bottom 3 defenses to one of the top 3, as well as from the Superdome to a rather hostile road environment. Unfortunately, this game could have fantasy implications if Drew Brees gets injured. Since I met Drew last June, I'm not rooting for this--yet. By week 5 or 6 I probably will be, since I play the team that has Brees in week 7. Injury possibilities have never been so intriguing to me before...especially Frank Gore and LaDanian Tomlinson, since I have their backups.

Pete is a Beast

I'm watching the tail end of Bears-Packers right now. I didn't bet on this game, but it has fantasy implications for me, since I have Jay Cutler and Greg Jennings. Actually the fantasy implications should be minimal, since Adrian Peterson's 180 yard, 3 TD performance vaulted me to a pretty massive lead, though my opponent still has LaDanian Tomlinson yet to play on Monday night. He also has Wes Welker, but it is my nderstanding that Welker is injured, though this could be Belichekean deception.

Incidentally, these other games that could determine my fantasy fate are 3 of the 4 I bet on. I took minnesota(-4.5)overCLEVELAND. The Vikings won and covered, 34-20. I have
NEW ENGLAND(-11)over buffalo, and san diego(-9)over OAKLAND. Whether you think these lines are reasonable or not, I don't think I need to explain these picks.

Aaron Rodgers just completed a bomb to Greg Jennings for the go ahead touchdown. If my internet wasn't acting up I would check to see how many points this got me. We get extra points for plays over 40 and 50 yards. Jennings also got the 2 point conversion, which gets me 2 more points. The score is now 21-15, though the 2 points only matter if the Bears score a touchdown and then miss the extra point. There is 1:11 remaining. Hopefully Cutler will score me some more points, even if he doesn't get the Bears any.

Or not--Jay just threw his 4th pick. Unless this was his 5th. Shades of Jake Delhomme. I might suspect Cutler was Delhomme, if Delhomme himself hadn't lost so convincingly earlier today.

My other game was washington(+6.5)over NYGIANTS. I initially thought this should be about a 4 point spread. I was already considering the 'Skins when they opened as a five point dog. When it moved to 6.5 I felt like I had to bet it, especially after I pushed for the 'Skins on the radio.

I absolutely should have lost this one, but the Redskins got a garbage touchdown to close within six, 23-17, so I covered. There must have been some pissed off gamblers out there.

I still can't tell how many yards that touchdown pass went for, but that and the 2-point conversion vaulted Jennings to my second-highest scorer, after Peterson, and I think it makes him the top receiver this week other than Reggie Wayne. I think our league scoring leaders look like this:

1. Drew Brees--56
2. Tony Romo--43
3. Adrian Peterson--41
4. Joe Flacco--34*
5. Matt Hasselbeck--29
6. Reggie Wayne--25
7. A bunch of guys at 23

The asterisk is for the fact that Joe Flacco's points didn't count, since he was on my bench. I think I would have far and away the highest points if I'd started Flacco over Cutler, as Matthew Berry recommended. I think I may still have the highest total for week one. I thought the Packers run defense would force Cutler to throw, resulting in a bunch of fantasy points, while I thought the Ravens would go conservative once they had a lead

My college bets were about as impressive as Michigan State, who managed to lose to Central Michigan. Tennessee lost to UCLA, despite being favored by 10, and USC beat Ohio State but failed to cover. North Carolina beat UConn, 12-10, which gave away the fact that this was not a basketball game, as well as salvaging me a NCAA win.

So, the NFL has brought me to 3-2 on the weekend, with both Monday night games still in play.

Go Penn State!

I took usc(-7.5)overOHIO STATE. Does the Big 10's pride ride on this game? I hope not. Any respect for the Big 10 this year hinges on Penn State...and their cupcake schedule shouldn't hurt either.

I took north carolina (+5)over UCONN. What? This is football? Oh. Well, too late now.

I'm staying away from the matchup of teams I love to hate, where Notre Dame is favored by 3 at Michigan. Maybe Rich Rodriguez can parlay practicegate into a "nobody believed in us" comeback season. After he treats the snitches on the Wolverine bench like Carlo in the first Godfather, that is.

Notre Dame's arrogance stinks to high heaven right now, but I think it needs to ferment a bit more, like a fine cheese. I could live with them getting cut off at the knees by Michigan State next week, of course. Is everyone else as astonsished as I am that Brian Hoyer is now Tom Brady's backup?

TENNESSEE(-10.5)over ucla. I guess I should've pounced on the 9.5. And the 7 on USC as well. I would've liked this game to be a bit earlier, so the west coasters would still be sleepy. Oh well.

A Shot at Jail

Shawne Merriman, linebacker for the San Diego Chargers, was arrested after his girlfriend, Tila Tequila, ratted him out to the fuzz. He was charged with battery and false imprisonment. Next time maybe he'll imprison her where she can't get to a phone.

If he wanted my advice, I'd tell him to get off the juice. And get a new barber. And learn to photoshop. Then when Tila prances around half-naked next to--say--a police cruiser or ambulance, he can photoshop some clothes on her. If he wants.



Before Phtoshop...


...and after

College Football Begins!

God. The Georgia at Oklahoma State game is starting, and Matt Millen is one of the two talking heads in the booth. How he still has any credibility is beyond me. I hope he at least winces every time they show Matt Stafford wearing a Lions jersey. They are already showing him, since his departure, as well as Knowshawn Moreno's set the stage for Georgia's season. Millen ought to be sweating like a whore in church, but I'm sure he's not. Charlatan.

Georgia is driving and looks like they are about to score. Unfortunate, since I have OKLAHOMA STATE(-5)overgeorgia. If Big 12 defenses are going to be this unreliable I may want to adjust my betting strategies now.

Ugh. Georgia's QB just completed a 5 yard touchdown pass into double coverage. Maybe Georgia is just too athletic. If their defense can contain the allegedly high-powered offense this could get ugly quick.

Speaking of adjusting my betting strategies, 3 of my 4 picks this weekend are of Big 12 teams. In addition to Oklahoma State I took OKLAHOMA(-23)overbyu. I guess it's a home game for the Sooners, though they're playing it in the Cowboy's cavernous new stadium with the low-hanging scoreboard. I'm convinced the Sooner faithful will make the trip in numbers great enough to make some noise, which is apparantly very difficult, due to the outsized acoustics of the joint.

If they can't, I'm sure their date against Texas in a few weeks will do the trick.

If the 'Horns and Sooners can't pull it off, it ain't happenin'.

As far as I know BYU has a decent team. Missouri had a decent team and lost to Oklahoma,

62-21. On the other hand, Oklahoma State lost to tehm only 61-41, not enough to cover this spread, though they did cover the actual ten point spread.

I'm counting on Oklahoma's high-powered offense already being in mid-season form, so they can cover as long as their defense makes a reasonable effort. This is my reasoning as well with Oklahoma State. I see Georgia having a better shot if they were to play a bowl game later on.

I have baylor(+2.5)overWAKE FOREST. I've underestimated trips into the forest in the past. I believe I lost with Boston College going there a year or two before they joined the ACC. Hopefully Robert Griffin III will give the Deamon Deacons more than they can handle. The announcers are talking about the '08 Big 12 Freshman of the Year as a Heisman sleeper, or perhaps a serious candidate in a year or two.

My last pick is lsu(-18.5)overWASHINGTON. While I don't expect the Tigers' offense to be in mid-season form, I do expect the Huskies to be about as crummy as they've been the last few years.

The Oklahoma game has just started. No score yet. BYU is actually threatening right now, near field goal range depending on how good their kicker is. Oklahoma State's defense stiffened, and they won, 24-10. Baylor won too, 24-21. I think they were up 24-7 earlier.

Michigan State beat Montana State, 44-3. Michigan beat Western Michigan, 35-7. Penn State beat Akron, 31-7. Unfortunately they were favored by 30. Ohio State hung on to beat Navy, 31-27, scoring their last 2 on an interception of a two-point conversion attempt by the Midshipmen. OSU always botches their early cupcake games. Of course Navy is less of a cupcake than the last few losers mentioned, or Nevada Reno, for that mattter. They lost to Notre Dame, 35-0.

In the games I bet on, Oklahoma State beat Georgia, 24-10. Baylor held on to beat Wake Forest, 24-21. Oklahoma lost to BYU, 14-13, and LSU failed to cover the 18 point spread, beating Washington, 31-23. Washington looked really sharp, the few plays I watched before I fell asleep. They should string up whatever network genius thought it was a good idea to start a game at 10:30, West Coast be damned. Apparantly the rumors that Tyrone Willingham can recruit are true.

So I went 2-2. And Matt Millen is still out there, getting paid for his football expertise. Don't take any wooden nickels.