ND Fails to Cover-Again

Just won $139 for finishing in 39th place in the pokerroom.com $20,000 guaranteed NLHE tournament. 467 entered the tournament. Thankfully I only bought one rebuy and one add-on, so I netted $49 profit. These unlimited rebuy tournaments can put you in the poorhouse if you're not careful. This makes two consecutive finishes in the money, but neither partcularly high. Top 10%, but not much better than that.

The Notre Dame-Purdue game is on, and ND just went up 28-7 on a fake field goal. The play before I saw the massive Boilermaker mascot on the sideline by the end zone, reminding me of Notre Dame's giant voodoo doll. I suspect they did not bother with the voodoo for this game, as they clearly don't need it. Theoretically they shouldn't have needed it last week either, since Michigan State somehow managed to lose to Illinois, lately the worst team in the Big Ten. I believe State beat them 63-14 last year, on the road. Drew Stanton managed to get himself injured again, perhaps a side effect from last week's ritual. With any luck he can be the next Chad Pennington. Go Green!

I haven't bet on any college games this week. I could call it a breather, after my weak showing last week, but I will still probably bet on some NFL games, so I guess I'm just slowing down a little.

Notre Dame failed to cover against Purdue, winning 35-21, but against a 15.5 point spread. I don't know if they sent in their subs, making the score closer. I particularly enjoyed the highlight where two Notre Dame defensive backs ran into one another, allowing the Purdue receiver to score. Good thing they were wearing pads, avoiding a show like that in the '05 Mets outfield. No tragedy in South Bend, but this little keystone kornerback comedy serves notice that the Irish defense isn't quite up to snuff. At least they let us know before they wipe their hallowed grounds with the likes of Stanford and the service academies. Michigan covered against Minnesota, and Ohio State dominated #13 Iowa.

cleveland(-3)overOAKLAND and
miami(-3.5)overHOUSTON Two mediocraties vs. the two worst teams in the league. If Miami can't win this one they're done. (I know, I know, they are done. Shhhhh!)
CINCY(-5.5)overnewengland Repeat of last year's statement game by Indy, while the Pats are looking vulnerable.

I really want to bet on Chargers-Ravens, Bills-Vikings, and Seahawks-Bears, but I keep changing my mind as to the outcomes. I think Phillip Rivers has yet to be tested against a good team, and the road trip to the East coast is rough, but San Diego is coming off a bye week, so what the heck. This is exactly the kind of pick I got wrong last week. If San Diego comes out of this with a win they will be putting the rest of the league on notice. I have still not seen Rivers play, which also makes it harder for me to trust these guys, whereas Carson Palmer gives me that warm fuzzy feeling....(Which one? You know which one...)

Bills-Vikings--who knows? I predict a close game and that the fans of one of the teams will be filled with dismay by the fashion in which their team manages to lose....Combined, these franchises have lost 20% of all Super Bowls so far. I wonder if the announcers will mention that over and over again. They should find a way to work this into the pregame festivities.

The Seahawks represent another chance for the Bears to make a statement (albeit against a wounded opponent), like the one they didn't make last week. Watch them win by three and fail to cover--AGAIN.

I Suck this Week

This morning I finished 61st out of 700+ in the Guaranteed $10,000 NL Rebuy, winning a little over $60, and netting about $46 after the entry fee, a rebuy, and an add-on. Unfortunately, I also played in a $50,000 Guaranteed Tournament with unlimited rebuys, which cost me $60 or $80, so my pokerroom.com account continues to dwindle.

In the sports betting side of the house I've experienced some recent dwindling too, going 1-4-1 last week. Ick! I took all road favorites, and one road dog, who I really thought should have been a favorite. It's a little too soon to disrespect a Super Bowl champ by making them a home dog, but PITTSBURGH(-2) implies that Cincy would be favored by 1 at a neutral site....Prediction: Pittsburgh WILL be an underdog at home by the end of the season. I haven't even looked at their schedule, but I am assuming that they play somebody that will look strong enough at whatever point in the year that they will be giving the Steelers points. Hold on--I'll check their schedule.....

Hmmmm. Their schedule doesn't seem that tough for a Super Bowl champ. November 5th vs. Denver, or Baltimore look like their toughest home games, but either of these teams could easily struggle enough to be a dog at Pittsburgh. I think Cincy was Pittsburgh's toughest home game, and if that game was at the end of the season I think the Bengals would have been favored. Of course, this is because I see them going 12-4 or 13-3. If Pittsburgh makes the playoffs it will be as the wild card, possibly the 6th seed again, and prouble ossibly as a 3rd place team behind the Ravens as well as the Bengals. Will 9-7 get them a seed this year? 10-6? Maybe.

I knew I was in trouble when my only NFL pick that agreed with Bill Simmons was the Steeler game. He did the smart thing and took those home dogs. Basically the key question involved the ceilings for the early hot teams. If these teams REALLY were dominant (or if they were really hot) they would handle their divisional rivals on the road.

In college football I only bet on one team. Basically my assumption about the Washington Huskies is that given enough time, Ty Willingham will turn them into winners. Meanwhile, I've been making $$ betting against them.

Well, not this time. Is this the year the Huskies raise their game, or was this just a blip caused by the notoriously suspect UCLA defense? (Note: every game where Pugilant Mick and I have taken the same teams we have lost. Lovely. Say no to Stanford and UCLA....

UCLA was favored by 3 and lost by about 10. Purdue beat Minnesota 27-21, but I bet on the 60.5 point OVER, which was apporoached but not surpassed.

I had a 4/5 vig for the Bears game, but only gave 3 points, while bodog was at 4 and bet365 moved to 4 at the end of the week. Good thing, because I got the push: Bears beat Vikes, 19-16.

The Bengals (+2) beat Pittsburgh 28-20. I've said enough about this.

--I still haven't done a post-Super Bowl blog. Needless to say, picking Seattle didn't get me a cover, but I still think it was a good pick. If you check back, I predicted that Pittsburgh would not be able to consistently move the ball against Seattle, so they would need big plays to win, and that is exactly what happened. That and alot of timely penalties and dropped passes from the Seahawks....

Ironically, after correctly picking against the 'Hawks in the Super Bowl, and predicting the typical next-season collapse for the runners-up, Bill Simmons is currently all over the collective Seahawk jock, rating them the second best team in the NFL currently, not putting them first because of Shawn Alexander's broken foot. I might agree with this at the end of the season, but come on--they beat Detroit 9-6 three weeks ago. What happend, bad vibes from Ford Field? When was the last time a team played in the Super Bowl in a given stadium, then opened the next season in the same place? For now I'm guessing the 49ers and the Superdome, or maybe Miami and the Orange Bowl. I suppose this could mess with the Seahawks a bit. I hope they have an excuse, because the Packers jsut won there by 7.

In any case, I think rating the Seahawks this high makes about as much sense as starting Pittsburgh at the top of the Power Rankings, or picking Carolina to go to the Super Bowl. (The Panthers tend to start out slow, but I still don't see them as THE pick, any more than you can take Atlanta...)

You took Atlanta? Me too, last week against the Saints--oops. I figured I'd take the Falcons because they have a good defense, which could contain Reggie Bush, and they did, but the Saints managed to do a tremendous job using him as a decoy, while their special teams decided the game in the first quarter. I was happy to give 3.5 while most gave 4 on this game, but New Orleans was happy to embarrass the Falcons, 23-3. Conspiracy theories abound that Atlanta threw this game, and while this is probably not true, it sure looks that way. Maybe the Saints will take a dive later on....or maybe they will just play like the Saints we are used to.

Sorry, I couldn't resist that segue into the Monday night game, but before all that, baltimore(-6.5) scored 12 points in the 4th quarter to come back and win at CLEVELAND, 15-14, but did not cover, obviously. And to think I might take the Ravens again this week, though as a home dog. Shame on me.

My Name is Booty

I'm sitting here on my ass watching My Name is Earl, season I of which I picked up yesterday. The show has alot to say about karma, and I am hoping to assist my own healing process after the typically bizarre Michigan State--Notre Dame result. Unfortunately, you can never quite make up for a loss, especially when your team blows a 16 point lead in the last 5:00. Beating Michigan will make me feel better, but with the ridiculously good Mario Manningham scoring five touchdowns in two weeks, I'm thinking I might be waiting a while for that. Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to ND getting trounced by USC, +/or losing a heartbreaking BCS game. I would settle for ND getting passed over for a BCS game while Louisville or Oregon. Go Ducks!

Earl update: Earl has an ex-girlfriend whom he broke up with by faking his own death. She makes figures out of paper mache (sp?), much like the witch doctors voodoo-ing Notre Dame to victory. There's a lesson here, or something. Perhaps Jason Lee holds the key to Notre Dame's downfall. Hmmmmmmmmm. Earl learned about karma from Carson Daly. In 2002 Carson Palmer taught the Irish, um... something, 44-13. Apparrently that something was how to lose by 31. Next year USC beat them 45-14, and the year after that USC won 41-10. Something went wrong last year, as USC pulled an improbable win out of their Trojan asses. Strangely enough, Notre Dame scored 31 points, losing 34-31. Karma? Or something deeper......? Can John David Booty stick it to Notre Dame, or will the Trojan karma come back around to bite them in the ass?

Irish Voodoo Incest

Just finished 9th out of 255 in a $5 NL Rebuy tournament on pokerroom.com, winning a whopping $38. Too bad I didn't do better in the $10 Rebuy earlier....or in that one for that matter.

Meanwhile, it's about time for the football weekend to get under way. The only game I truly give a shit about is Michigan State-Notre Dame. The good news is that after playing Michigan Notre Dame is 2-5 the last 7 years, which flies in the face of my expectation that Notre Dame will beat Moo U like a gong, motivated by both last week's loss to Michigan, and by revenge for their OT loss to the Spartans last year. The line opened with the Irish favored by 4.5, but has since dropped to 3, as money has poured in on the other side. No team seems as able to garner expectations both so high and so low. Everyone either thinks ND has a legitimate national title shot, or that they are vastly overrated and play a schedule loaded with creampuffs, when the truth is more than likely somewhere in between. So what do we know?

We don't exactly KNOW, but rumor has it that a cabal of defrocked priests has resurrected a giant doll, just to befoul it in an ancient rite too wretched to describe here. The phenomenon known as the Sparty Stigmata was not enough to slow down Drew Stanton last year, so now all the stops will be pulled out, not to mention fingernails, hair, bones from sockets....Lets just say that the howls of pain and torment will be drowned out only by the beating of thousands of drums, the roar of flames reaching the sky, and chanting in Latin. If calling on the forces of darkness won't create huge holes in the Spartan defense, what will? What defense, you ask? Well, good point. What the Irish would really like to see is Drew Stanton getting injured a bit sooner this year, preferably in the first half. The Palmer deluxe, 2nd play of the game? That'll work. Of course, the results of this desperate and twisted ritual are unpredictable, much like incest chased with nine months of crack and Wild Turkey. The luck of the Irish may have them winning, maybe even covering the spread, but the karma of the Irish is a bitch.

Speaking of the luck o' the Irish, Pugilant Mick has a five game parlay going on NCAA games, which I believe pays out at 120-1. By the time the parlay is resolved and the big game is underway, I may have to change his name to Downright Belligerant Mick. I have the over/under for him at 10 beers and 3 Cape Codders, unless he decides to sleep instead of staying up all night.

Enough about MSU-ND, since I'm not betting on it anyway. I AM betting on the Minnesota at Purdue game. I'm taking the OVER, which has dropped from 64 to 60.5 in the last 12 hours or so. I'm expecting about 78 or so. I think this may be the highest over/under I've ever seen. I was going to take Minnesota, but with these outstanding offenses, and these outstandingly BAD defenses I feel like I might as well be betting on the special olympics, sans Jimmy.

If I had taken the Golden Gophers, it would have been the 5th road favorite I took this weekend, all in either divisional or conference matchups. This could be very bad, of course. Home dogs in rivalry games tend to be dangerous to go against, as they tend to overperform. Basically I am counting on there being a significant gap between these teams. I will probably be happy if I go 3-2, and get the over on the Gopher game.

ucla(-3)overWASHINGTON At some point Ty Willingham is going to whup the Huskies into shape. Until then I will continue to bet against them. UCLA's offense is too good to have any business letting this be a close game, but their defense is bad enough to make that a possibility.

cincy(+2)overPITTSBURGH Bengals and Steelers, not Bearcats and Panthers--we're in the NFL now; stay with me...OK? Ok. The Bengals are hot right now, while the Steelers seem kind of lost. Of course Cincy doesn't have the defense that Jacksonville does, but they will be motivated...of course the Steelers will be too--they don't want to start out 1-2 and have to scrape their way into the playoffs like last year. I expect the AFC to be even more competitive this year, with the Chargers and Ravens joining last year's playoff teams to create a bit of a logjam at the top. The Steelers may have a chance to be the first team to win consecutive Super Bowls as a Wild Card team, as well as the first to win the Super Bowl after finishing 3rd in their division. This line is still 2 on bet365, but has dropped to 1 on bodog. Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks the Steelers might not be ready for this game.

chicago(-3)overMINNESOTA This is the kind of game where you really ought to take the Vikings. The Bears look hot, but they've been beating up on the Packers and Lions, while the Vikings have scraped out victories against the 'Skins and Panthers, who are supposed to be decent teams. Personally, My list of most overrated teams would probably include these Viking victims, along with Pittsburgh and Miami, though shortly most of the hype on the 'Fins should be sorted out. I'm not crazy about taking the Bears on turf indoors, and I'm not sure if Rex Grossmann will continue to look like Sid Luckman against a decent team, (no, I've never seen Luckman play--did they have TV back then?) but they look confident right now, and their defense has a chance to bury alot of teams. This is their chance to put their stamp on the NFC North race early. On bodog this line has been at 4 most of the week, and the bet365 line has finally moved to 4 within the last day.

baltimore(-6.5)overCLEVELAND Another one of those questionable lines. Are the Browns really that much worse? At the moment I say yes, since the Ravens seem to be one of the early hot teams, and the Browns' offense has been inconsistent even when not opposed by a solid unit like this one. (The bodog line is 7, and I have to admit that the half-point makes me feel like I got a bargain. The variance in spreads has definitely encouraged action on my part.)

atlanta(-3.5)overNEWORLEANS The Saints' new offense has me a little nervous here, especially since I haven't gotten to watch the Falcons run wild the way they apparently have, and I consider Atlanta to be another team that tends to get overrated. Meanwhile, they apparenly are another hot team, and they have a solid defense, unlike New Orleans. I haven't done too well against the Saints in the past. I lost when they won outright against the Panthers in last year's opener, and then I shied away from alot of games where the Saints could have come through for me, such as their loss to the Giants. It is a new day in New Orleans, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out. Theoretically I like the Saints against weak teams, but not against good defenses that can keep the lid on Bush and Brees. I also like the 3.5, since bodog has been at 4 all week. Every one of my pro spreads has been a half point to a point "better" on bet365, and in every case the money has been coming in on my side, for whatever it's worth.

I go 5-3

Shaky college weekend (2-2), good pro weekend (3-1). If I hadn't tried to middle Michigan-Notre Dame I would've gone 1-2, and Boston College pulled their cover out of their ass. Recap:

BC(-6.5)30, byu23 (2OT)
NORTHWESTERN(-17.5)14, eastern michigan 6
michigan(+6.5)47 NOTRE DAME 21
navy37 STANFORD(pick)9

CINCINNATI(-10)34, cleveland 17
INDIANAPOLIS(-13.5)43 houston 24
BALTIMORE(-12.5)28 oakland 6
SAN FRANCISCO20 stlouis(-3)13

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

While I'm thinking about it, let me just say that I have been playing PartyPoker's new Backgammon site, and it's been a real bloodbath. I'm gonna have to study this game, and play at lower stakes. There's no sense in winning in NLHE cash games, then losing it all and more on Backgammon...I'm not sure if there is Backgammon tilt, but I'm pretty sure I was on it a couple of days ago, when I was basically doubling as an ATM...

And now, on to my NFL picks.

Gambling problem? What?

I generally try to look for undervalued underdogs in the NFL, but right now there are some rather inflated spreads that I don't think I can resist, either because

a) the favorites have offenses taht are really GOOD

b) the 'dogs just may be mind-numbingly BAD

c) hold on, I may be able to work in UGLY too...

RAVENS(-12.5)raiders--Raider's BAD may already be getting upgraded to UGLY--like their 27-0 loss to San Diego--their quaterback has a problem with his sense of direction--once threw a 35 yard pass the wrong way--UGLY(!!!)--and their coach just may be a manequin. Bill Simmons got this game with an 11 point spread, bodog's is now 13...I'm happy with bet365's 12.5.

COLTS(-13.5)texans--Colt offense--GOOD. Texans--BAD. Picking Mario Williams 1st, over Reggie Bush--UGLY. Perhaps even mildly retarded. Theoretically he will give the Texans the pass rush they need to pressure Peyton Manning. Maybe someday--I don't think it's happening yet.

BENGALS(-10)browns--I really don't like big spreads in divisional games, since these tend to be close and hard-fought. That having been said, I love the Bengals offense, especially Carson Palmer. (I categorically deny that I am having his love-child however...for now.) Word is the Bengals defense is also much improved. I'm not convinced of this, but they may have learned a valuable lesson during their playoff loss to Pittsburgh. Taking out the other team's quarterback works pretty well. To recap, Double digit spread--BAD(but bodog's is 11). Bengal offense--GOOD. Trent Green injury--GOOD, I mean, UGLY.

rams(-3)49ERS--the Rams may be ready for a letdown after upsetting Denver last week, but they may actually be alot better than anyone thought. Again, I try to be careful in these divisional games, but the 'Niners suck last I checked, so what the heck. Rams--GOOD?
Niners--BAD. Road divisional game--not UGLY enough to scare me off.

And now, just to show you that I have some restraint, here are the other games that look similar to these, that I am not betting on.

CHARGERS(-12)titans--The Chargers looked great against the Raiders, but I think the Raiders' ineptitude is the main culprit here. Let's not anoint Phillip Rivers the next Carson Palmer just yet. Maybe the next Rex Grossman.

(Meanwhile, the 1st half of Stanford-Navy is winding down, and the Middies lead 10-0. Oops. I guess Stanford really sucks. Ouch.

BRONCOS(-10.5)chiefs--hmmm...no Trent Green? Maybe I will take Denver...

lions(+9)BEARS--The Lions' defense suddenly looks tough, but their offense hasn't done anything yet, and Chicago probably won't make life any easier for them. I hate the Bears with a big spread, since they don't have Colt-like or Beangal-esqe offensive firepower, but the Lions are worse on the road, and 13-3 or 16-3 doesn't seem unreasonable.

saints(-2)PACKERS--Packers look awful, and Saints are looking good, but this is the kind of game that bites you in the... BOOTY. Speaking of which, the USC-Nebraska game has about 5:00 left, and SC is just covering the 17.5 point spread, 28-10, and Booty is lookin' GOOD. (Sorry, can't help it. Is there a BA? Bootylovers anonymous? Get back to me. I need help. Yeah, I'll start going to meetings in...January. The whole idea of somebody who goes by roQQ boTTom entering some kind of ass-lover 12-step works on WAY too many levels....I guess I'm still in the denial phase....

Booty Talk, I try for Middle of ND-UM

Since I am on the other side of the globe, college football is still about 12 hours away, even though it is 3:30 Saturday afternoon. So I still have time to get my bets in. But first, a question.

If you were an NCAA Championship calibre team, who just lost their Heisman-quality quarterback, whould you rather replace him with a guy named Colt McCoy, or a guy named John David Booty?

Colt McCoy's parents should be spayed and neutered for naming him Colt. It's like they wanted to reinforce the notion that they had a feud going with thte Hatfields. It's enough to make me wonder if the other Longhorns ask him if his family has a still out behind their trailer. At least he went to Texas.

John David Booty's parents were dealt a bad hand, but they had the sense not to reinforce their unfortunate last name with a farm animal first name, like Sheep. Or how about Ram Booty? Why the hell not? John David may be a little boring, but it's safe. Their kid will only get beat up for his last name.

But I'm curious about his middle name. Why do I know it? Is the press calling him that so we don't confuse him with the other John Booty? Like calling President Bush Dubya? Or is he some kind of mass murderer, like John Wayne Gacy? (Is it mass murderers, or serial killers who get middle names? Or is it assassins? John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald...I guess it's not serial killers, or we would know David Berkowitz's middle name.)

Mockery aside, I suppose at this point our preference has to be for Booty, since Texas lost last week to Ohio State, but USC hasn't really played anyone good yet. Can we count Nebraska as "good?" SC is a 17 point favorite, but at least Nebraska is ranked--for now.

The better Booty performs, or the more SC wins with him, the less I expect from Matt Leinart. In the past there have been many schools that basically turned into quarterback factories. Usually the first stud quarterback in a long string would go on to have a successful NFL career (Jim Kelly, Jim McMahon) but their successors, who have tended to have even more in the way of Heismans and gaudy stats, have flopped in the NFL. Of course there have been exceptions (Bernie Kosar, Steve Young), but look at the guys who haven't made it. Gino Torretta? Ken Dorsey? (Miami) Charlie Ward*? Chirs Weinke? (Florida State) Ty Detmer? (BYU) Danny Wuerffel? Rex Grossman**? (Florida)


*Not his fault. Crummy point guard though.
**Jury is still out. And what about Kyle Orton? Will Brees/Orton go down in history like Dawson/Griese? Does anybody even remember that those guys went to Purdue? For that matter, does anybody even remember that Purdue was favored by 3 vs. Notre Dame last year?
Go Boilermakers!

Crap. Earlier I was amusing you, or at least myself with speculations regarding Colt McCoy and John Wayne Booty, er, John David Booty, when I could have been giving you my college picks. Later I logged those (About an hour before game time, but I lost my connection, and when I tried to save my blog update, I lost that too. So, here are my picks, a little late except for the 8:00 game.

BOSTONCOLLEGE(-6.5)over brighamyoung
NORTHWESTERN(-17.5)over easternmichigan
STANFORD(pick)over navy

and, inadvertently, I did not really pick but I did bet on

michigan(+6.5)over NOTREDAME

I'll expalin below.

BC beat BYU last year in Utah, 20-3. I believe BYU was favored by 3. More recently, BC beat #18(?) Clemson in double OT last week, 34-33. On the other hand, BC failed to cover two weeks ago against Central Michigan, winning by 7, but losing my hard earned $$. Well, this week BC again put my $$ in jeopardy, and when BC broke a 20-20 tie with a field goal I found myself absurdly rooting for a BYU field goal, so that BC would have to break the tie. Then hopefully they might inadvertently score a touchdown while maneuvering into field goal position. (Remember, I went to grad school at Boston College, so I root for them wether I bet on them or not.) Well, BYU came through with a field goal, and forced overtime, and BC won in a 2nd overtime, and, more importantly, scored a touchdown and converted the extra point, to win 30-23, covering the 6.5 points.

I took Northwestern giving 17.5 because Eastern lost last week to Michigan State 52-20, and last year Northwestern beat Michigan State 49-14. Perhaps I should ahve considered that Northwestern lost last week to New Hampshire 34-17. Who the hell are they? What conference are they in? Um, the Atlantic 10--I just checked. Northwestern won, but failed to cover, 14-6. Ooops.

I have Stanford over Navy with no line. The spread on bet365 fluctuated between Stanford by 1, and a pick. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick opened a bodog account today, and got Stanford as a 1 point dog. Good for him. He also took Temple as a 42 point dog at Minnesota. Bad for him. Minnesota won and covered, 62-0. (Temple also lost to Louisville last week, 62-0. Next week's game at Western Michigan should prove to be closer. I have such faith in the Directional Michigans. Of course, I am 0-2 betting against them this season....) Last year Stanford beat Navy in Annapolis, 41-38. They also lost to #8 UCLA 30-27, and #6 Notre Dame 38-31, and beat a decent Arizona State team 45-35. Navy lost to Notre Dame, 42-21. So there you go. The game starts in about a half an hour.

And now, the game I didn't mean to bet on. Before the line came out I figured Notre Dame would be favored by about 6.5. My reasoning was that a) Last year Notre Dame won by 7 in Ann Arbor, and b) ND convicingly beat Penn State last week, rising to #2 and answering doubts raised by their narrow escape at Georgia Tech, and c) Michigan hadn't played anybody good yet, so if the line was much below 7 the ND money might come pouring in. On the other hand, doubters would still remember the Tech game, and reason that Michigan is better than Tech (but Penn State might be too) so I figured the Michigan money would jump all over any line of 7 or more. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick figured the line would be more like 3.5 to 4.5, but said he thought ND would win by 7 or more, beating my spread estimate as well as his.

The Notre Dame-Michigan line opened with ND as a 7 point favorite. Money poured in on the Wolverines, and the line dropped to 6.5, and then down to 4.5. At that point I'd wished I'd taken Michigan +7, so I could middle the spreads by taking Notre Dame -4.5. I was still to scared to bet this spread either way, but the line movement had me extremely intrigued. (Last year I eventually took ND+7, but only for 1/2 my standard bet.) I suspect that Michigan's streak of 5 games decided by 3 points or less--of which I believe two were decided in OT, and the others were swung by scores within the final 10 seconds or so--may have been a big factor in the heavy betting on Michigan. Also this rivalry has a long history of being decided by 3 points or less, frequently on the final drive. What I know is that personally I was still scared to take ND giving 4.5, and these were the reasons why.

Well, I was away from the internet when Pugilant Mick called me to discuss pointspreads, having just opened his bodog account. I had him check the line, and he informed me that it had gone back up to ND by 6! This was my chance to middle the spreads! I figured chances were bet365's line was still at 4.5, since theirs fluctuates less, since they see more action from English bettors, and less from Americans and feel less pressure to adjust. If Notre Dame lost by five, I could get paid on two bets, with a risk of only the vig. Depending on the vigs, which tend to fluctuate in an attempt to even out the line swings, this would pay between 16 and 20-1.

Anyway, by the time I got back to my computer, and hopped on bodog to check the line, it was up to 6.5! Now a Notre Dame win by 5 or 6 would give me the middles. I got my $$ down on Michigan at 6.5, and opened up bet365...

...where the line had moved back up to 6--!
Fuck.

No middle to be had.

ND wasn't about to win by 6 1/4 points. I don't care how much of a genius Charlie Weis is. I don't care if he has a slide rule and an abbacus jammed up his, um...booty. 'Ain't happenin.'

Now what? Retreat and take ND giving 6, guaranteeing I lose the vig, but nothing more or let it ride?

All (most) signs pointing toward a close outcome I let it ride. Of course, the outcome was anything but close.

Michigan, 47-21. Stick that up your Fighting Irish Booty.

(Currently it is halftime of the SC-Nebraska game, SC is up 14-3, and that Booty is lookin' good. Meanwhile, I look forward to Michigan State getting TROUNCED by a completely pissed off Notre Dame squad already bent on revenge for last year's OT heartbreaker, once again showing why I root for Notre Dame when they play Michigan. Booty.

Bootybootybootybootybooty....

Last Week Recap

Well, its already Friday, so I guess I'd better recap last week, so I can get into this week's picks.
Virginia Tech handled North Carolina 35-10, doubling the 12.5 point spread, and Ohio State, a 2.5 point dog, got their revenge in Austin, beating Texas 24-7. Last year I considered the game too close to call, and I think I proved to be correct. This year I figured we had more data to work with, since we have last year's result, and can adjust expectiations based on personnel changes. Last year Ohio State lost by two without Troy Smith playing quarterback. This year they have him, and Texas is without Rose Bowl MVP Vince Young. Meanwhile, OSU returns only two of their defensive starters, while Texas' "D" is more or less intact from last year, where they won a national champinship by stopping USC one time in the Second half of the Rose Bowl. In theory Texas should have had the edge on defense, but...

a) Jim Tressel is an outstanding defensive coach, who ought to have his nine new starters ready to play.

b) As you may have gathered, I'm not convinced Texas' "D" is all it's cracked up to be.

c) Even if Ohio State's defense IS vulnerable, Colt McCoy may not be the guy to exploit it. He may have looked good against North Texas, but... well, EVERYBODY looks good against North Texas. Yes, everybody is written bold and IN CAPS for a reason. And no, I haven't forgiven them for losing to Tulsa last year 54-2, as a five point favorite. I didn't even bet on this game, but it is easily the worst pick I've ever made.

d) The guy with the weed & gun charges pending just happened to be the stud corner who would have been covering Ted Ginn Jr. Ugh. Well, at least he's not going to miss the Rice game this weekend.

The irony of last weekend's game for me was that half the reason I bet on this game was so I could cover it as a handicapper, but I had no time to do so. So now I have the consolation of saying what should have been said before, when nobody is interested any longer. At least I got my pick.

Got both of my NCAA picks, in fact. After which I went 3-2 on the NFL games. Here they are. My picks are listed first, home teams in caps.

PITTSBURGH28(-4*)miami17
seattle9(-3.5)DETROIT6
NEWENGLAND19(-8.5)buffalo17
phily24(-3.5)HOUSTON10
indy26(-3)NYGIANTS21

The * is for the line change, since the Steelers became a 1.5 point dog because Charlie Batch started at QB. I usually don't bet against the Lions, but the Orangeout last year convinced me to go ahead. While they covered here, this could be habit-forming.

osu(+2.5)overTEXAS

No time to discuss, but I'm taking the Buckeyes! Really too close to call, though. I'm also taking virginiatech(-12.5)overNORTHCAROLINA. Another case of taking the Hokies over a basketball school, as I did with vatech(-20)overDUKE last year. They won about 38-0. NC doesn't suck like Duke, but still. 12 points isn't that much when you shut out your opponent, as Tech did last week, beating Northeastern, 38-0.

NCAA Opener--2-2

Boston College beat Central Michican 24-17, and Notre Dame beat Georgia Tech 14-10, but neither of the big Catholic schools covered their respective 11.5 and 7 point spreads. Meanwhile, Ohio State beat Northern Illinois 35-12, and Southern Cal beat Arkansas 50-14. Ohio State was a 17 point favorite, while SC was favored by a mere 8.5, so I have started the season off 2-2. Meanwhile, I have bet on five NFL games for next week, so let me mention these while I am thinking of it.

On second thought, bet365's site is down, so I may have to wait. Or check bodog.com....

Ick. On bodog we see miami(-1.5) at PITTSBURGH. I have

PITTSBURGH(-4) miami. As I immediately suspected, Roethlisberger is not playing. I am hoping the line hasn't changed so I can minimize the damage, but I am not optimistic. Meanwhile, here are my other picks. As with the NCAA, I have taken all favorites, hoping that these lines may be relative bargains.

NEWENGLAND(-8.5)over buffalo--the bodog line is -9.
seattle(-3.5) over DETROIT --Apparently somebody agreed with me--the bodog line is -6.5.
phily(-3.5) over HOUSTON.--the bodog line is -4.5. I'm starting to wonder if the bet365 spread is being produced by amateurs. Watch--I and all the $$ moving these lines will be wrong.
indy(-3) over NYGIANTS --bodog has the "battle of the Mannings line at -3.5. Go ahead and root for Eli, just don't bet on him....

At this rate I may just put some $$ on bodog to take advantage of future line variance. This time I'm getting a better deal at bet365 every time, with the possible exception of the Pittsburgh line. Of course, the line may have moved on both sites when it was announced that Big Ben will be sitting out.

Meanwhile, Bill Simmons' two part column on his adopting of an English Premiere League team has inspired me to try to follow some soccer. But, while Bill picked a team to root for based on sifting through fan emails, I read through these same emails (or the ones he selected to print) then checked the odds and bet on one of them (so far).

Since what little I know of English soccer can be summed up very briefly, I will do so here.

In '93, the second time I was in London, the two popular teams, according to what shirts were available, were Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur. I think I knew Arsenal was local, but when I played the War of the Roses era strategic game Kingmaker I saw that Northumberland was the region that bordered on Scotland, and since "Hotspur" was the nickname of the Duke of Northumberland in Henry IV Part I, I may have believed that Tottenham was in the north, around Newcasle perhaps. I'm not sure when I figured out that the Spurs were a North London team, but it was probably in the context of their rivalry with Arsenal.

Back in '96 I was in London again when I read Trainspotting. From this, along with Irvine Welsh's other novels, I gathered that Hibs was the big Catholic team in Edinburgh, Hearts was the big Protestant team, and that neither of them were any good. The good Scot teams are both in Glasgow. Celtic is the good Catholic team, and arguably has the sharpest jerseys, provided you like green and white hoop stripes, that is. Rangers are the good Protestant team, and at an Irish Night Mets game I almost got jumped by some crazy Mick because the intertwined BFC on my Barbarians Foootball Club T-shirt was mistaken for an RFC for Rangers Football Club as I left Shea and headed for the 7 train. Once he realized his mistake he was pretty friendly, and on the subway a legion of Irish alternately sang IRA songs, and quieted down when the police would pass by and tell them to. Once the cops left, the singing resumed. I figured this was where the party was at, and I rode all the way down to the 30's on Manhattan's East Side, where we proceeded to a bar with anti-orange posters on the walls. I'm not sure if I was in some sort of IRA lair or what.

I have known for a while that Manchester United has been a powerhouse...for a while. I'm not sure how long. Like Simmons, I wouldn't feel right about rooting for these guys because they remind me too much of the Yankees, and also because I have seen various Americans gush too enthusiastically over them, more than likely because they don't know any other teams.

I don't recall how I found out, but I also knew Liverpool has alot of past glory. On the rare occasions when I checked the standings I would pull for anyone who was up at the top with ManU, which tended to be the above teams, or perhaps Newcastle United.

At some point within the last year or so, I read somewhere that soccer jerseys were fashionable, perhaps because they have a slimming effect, and probably because they make you look more like Eurotrash. After all, it is a scientific fact that homosexuals and Eurotrash are snappier dressers than all others, or at least more so than straight American males. (I suspect that the football hooligan is not quite the same demigraphc as your standard Eurotrash, but I suspect that there is some overlap at least in Italy and Spain, not to mention France, if not so much in England.

I hadn't really thought this through. If I had, I may have gone searching for an InterMilan or Barcelona shirt, but I doubt it. Like I'm gonna pass for Italian, or would want to. Anyway, my favorite jersey from my little Kitbag search was Newcastle's recent road uniforms, with the Black and Blue vertical stripes. Looks way better than their standard ref shirts with the black and white stripes (also vertical, of course, or I would compare them to inmates instead.) So, I was in the market for a road Newcastle shirt. Within the last few weeks the old road shirts ceased to be available, and the new red and blue ones aren't as cool in my opinion.

Last December I read the book The Football Factory, which centers around hooligan supporters of Chelsea FC, and climaxes in their street battle with Millwall. So I gathered that these were two of the hardest firms. All three times I've been to London I stayed in Chelsea, at the Chelsea hotel, in fact (there are at least 3 or 4 of them). So, while I didn't know they existed (probably because they weren't any good) Chelsea was essentially my home team. So I was rooting for Bill to adopt them, little knowing that they had been bought by a Russian billionaire, and are turning into the new Yankees. Perhaps when they slip in the future I will become a fervant supporter. I may anyway, but right now it doesn't feel right.

Live ND--GaTech Blog

It's halftime of the Notre Dame--Georgia Tech game, and ND has put my $$ in jeopardy by stumbling to the ass-end of a 10-7 score. Georgia Tech are the Yellowjackets, so they are not susceptable to the infamous voodoo ritual that Notre Dame's cabal of priests springs on unwitting rivals with man-shaped mascots (Trojans, Spartans, Boilermakers, Volunteers...). Instead they have outfitted the giant voodoo doll with bug-zapper armor, smeared it with honey and pollen, and placed a beehive in its subterranean crypt. You can guess the rest. ESPN Insider my ass! I've got Jesuit Insider, and rumor has it that the priests from the east have even agreed to assist the dark powers of Soth Bend in their unholy quest, secure in the knowledge that Notre Dame's bad karma will be throbbing and frothing over by the time they next play Boston College. GO EAGLES!

The Class Six had a sale on flavoured Absolut yesterday, so I stocked up for the festivities with a fifth of Citron and a fifth of Vanilla. I and Pugilant Mick are a Cosmopolitan and a Metropolitan deep into the game, and the 2nd half will feature Bloody Marys. I donned by Yellow GaTech hat (a $6.00 bootleg with the bee facing the wrong way) for the first half (not to mention a T-shirt from the greatest college football program of all time--Yale!!!), with the dual intent of pissing off Mick and jinxing Tech. This has been half-successful, as Mick first swore to not talk to me for two years if ND lost, and then decided to start early.

Speaking of starting early, it is 11:15 am here, and we started before nine. Sunday morning is college football time in Korea.

The 3rd quarter is winding down and ND has seized a 14-10 lead. Since my reverse jinx with the GT hat wasn't working, I changed to a UNC hat at halftime, to remind Tech that they are from a basketball conference.

Ugh. ND just missed a field goal, which would have brought them even with the 7 point spread. They have really been dominant since their scoring drive at the end of the first half, and its disappoinitng to come away with nothing after a nice drive.

It's 1/2way throughtthe 4th quarter, and Tech's quarterback has been buring ND on draws up the middle. So much for our sacrament of the Bloody Virgin Mary. I used spicy V8, Frank's Red Hot Sauce, Tabasco, black pepper, crushed red pepper, garlic salt, celerey salt,oregano, Worcestershire sauce, and horseradish mayonaise. The mayo makes my concoctions look like they have jizz suspended in them (actually mine, since Mick declined the hoseradish due to his raging homophobia.

Ugh. ND wins 14-10, failing to beat the 7 point spread. Combind with BC's 24-17 win at Central Michigan, I am 0-2 betting on Catholic schools this weekend. Meanwhile I've been saved by Ohio State, who beat Northern Illinois 35-12, and USC, whose 44-7 lead over Arkansas has been cut to 44-14, which I can live with.

Meanwhile, I found five NFL spreads that I like for next week. Again I took all favorites. Hopefully I fare better with the pro games.

PITTSBURGH(-4)over miami
NEWENGLAND(-8.5)over buffalo
seattle(-3.5)over DETROIT (violates the don't bet against your own team rule)
indy (-3)over NYGIANTS
philly (-3.5) over HOUSTON

I went against the Lions for the orangeout game last year, but hey, so did all the other Detroiters. Screw it. None of these dogs deserve this much respect, at least not yet.