Booty Talk, I try for Middle of ND-UM
Since I am on the other side of the globe, college football is still about 12 hours away, even though it is 3:30 Saturday afternoon. So I still have time to get my bets in. But first, a question.
If you were an NCAA Championship calibre team, who just lost their Heisman-quality quarterback, whould you rather replace him with a guy named Colt McCoy, or a guy named John David Booty?
Colt McCoy's parents should be spayed and neutered for naming him Colt. It's like they wanted to reinforce the notion that they had a feud going with thte Hatfields. It's enough to make me wonder if the other Longhorns ask him if his family has a still out behind their trailer. At least he went to Texas.
John David Booty's parents were dealt a bad hand, but they had the sense not to reinforce their unfortunate last name with a farm animal first name, like Sheep. Or how about Ram Booty? Why the hell not? John David may be a little boring, but it's safe. Their kid will only get beat up for his last name.
But I'm curious about his middle name. Why do I know it? Is the press calling him that so we don't confuse him with the other John Booty? Like calling President Bush Dubya? Or is he some kind of mass murderer, like John Wayne Gacy? (Is it mass murderers, or serial killers who get middle names? Or is it assassins? John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald...I guess it's not serial killers, or we would know David Berkowitz's middle name.)
Mockery aside, I suppose at this point our preference has to be for Booty, since Texas lost last week to Ohio State, but USC hasn't really played anyone good yet. Can we count Nebraska as "good?" SC is a 17 point favorite, but at least Nebraska is ranked--for now.
The better Booty performs, or the more SC wins with him, the less I expect from Matt Leinart. In the past there have been many schools that basically turned into quarterback factories. Usually the first stud quarterback in a long string would go on to have a successful NFL career (Jim Kelly, Jim McMahon) but their successors, who have tended to have even more in the way of Heismans and gaudy stats, have flopped in the NFL. Of course there have been exceptions (Bernie Kosar, Steve Young), but look at the guys who haven't made it. Gino Torretta? Ken Dorsey? (Miami) Charlie Ward*? Chirs Weinke? (Florida State) Ty Detmer? (BYU) Danny Wuerffel? Rex Grossman**? (Florida)
*Not his fault. Crummy point guard though.
**Jury is still out. And what about Kyle Orton? Will Brees/Orton go down in history like Dawson/Griese? Does anybody even remember that those guys went to Purdue? For that matter, does anybody even remember that Purdue was favored by 3 vs. Notre Dame last year?
Go Boilermakers!
Crap. Earlier I was amusing you, or at least myself with speculations regarding Colt McCoy and John Wayne Booty, er, John David Booty, when I could have been giving you my college picks. Later I logged those (About an hour before game time, but I lost my connection, and when I tried to save my blog update, I lost that too. So, here are my picks, a little late except for the 8:00 game.
BOSTONCOLLEGE(-6.5)over brighamyoung
NORTHWESTERN(-17.5)over easternmichigan
STANFORD(pick)over navy
and, inadvertently, I did not really pick but I did bet on
michigan(+6.5)over NOTREDAME
I'll expalin below.
BC beat BYU last year in Utah, 20-3. I believe BYU was favored by 3. More recently, BC beat #18(?) Clemson in double OT last week, 34-33. On the other hand, BC failed to cover two weeks ago against Central Michigan, winning by 7, but losing my hard earned $$. Well, this week BC again put my $$ in jeopardy, and when BC broke a 20-20 tie with a field goal I found myself absurdly rooting for a BYU field goal, so that BC would have to break the tie. Then hopefully they might inadvertently score a touchdown while maneuvering into field goal position. (Remember, I went to grad school at Boston College, so I root for them wether I bet on them or not.) Well, BYU came through with a field goal, and forced overtime, and BC won in a 2nd overtime, and, more importantly, scored a touchdown and converted the extra point, to win 30-23, covering the 6.5 points.
I took Northwestern giving 17.5 because Eastern lost last week to Michigan State 52-20, and last year Northwestern beat Michigan State 49-14. Perhaps I should ahve considered that Northwestern lost last week to New Hampshire 34-17. Who the hell are they? What conference are they in? Um, the Atlantic 10--I just checked. Northwestern won, but failed to cover, 14-6. Ooops.
I have Stanford over Navy with no line. The spread on bet365 fluctuated between Stanford by 1, and a pick. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick opened a bodog account today, and got Stanford as a 1 point dog. Good for him. He also took Temple as a 42 point dog at Minnesota. Bad for him. Minnesota won and covered, 62-0. (Temple also lost to Louisville last week, 62-0. Next week's game at Western Michigan should prove to be closer. I have such faith in the Directional Michigans. Of course, I am 0-2 betting against them this season....) Last year Stanford beat Navy in Annapolis, 41-38. They also lost to #8 UCLA 30-27, and #6 Notre Dame 38-31, and beat a decent Arizona State team 45-35. Navy lost to Notre Dame, 42-21. So there you go. The game starts in about a half an hour.
And now, the game I didn't mean to bet on. Before the line came out I figured Notre Dame would be favored by about 6.5. My reasoning was that a) Last year Notre Dame won by 7 in Ann Arbor, and b) ND convicingly beat Penn State last week, rising to #2 and answering doubts raised by their narrow escape at Georgia Tech, and c) Michigan hadn't played anybody good yet, so if the line was much below 7 the ND money might come pouring in. On the other hand, doubters would still remember the Tech game, and reason that Michigan is better than Tech (but Penn State might be too) so I figured the Michigan money would jump all over any line of 7 or more. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick figured the line would be more like 3.5 to 4.5, but said he thought ND would win by 7 or more, beating my spread estimate as well as his.
The Notre Dame-Michigan line opened with ND as a 7 point favorite. Money poured in on the Wolverines, and the line dropped to 6.5, and then down to 4.5. At that point I'd wished I'd taken Michigan +7, so I could middle the spreads by taking Notre Dame -4.5. I was still to scared to bet this spread either way, but the line movement had me extremely intrigued. (Last year I eventually took ND+7, but only for 1/2 my standard bet.) I suspect that Michigan's streak of 5 games decided by 3 points or less--of which I believe two were decided in OT, and the others were swung by scores within the final 10 seconds or so--may have been a big factor in the heavy betting on Michigan. Also this rivalry has a long history of being decided by 3 points or less, frequently on the final drive. What I know is that personally I was still scared to take ND giving 4.5, and these were the reasons why.
Well, I was away from the internet when Pugilant Mick called me to discuss pointspreads, having just opened his bodog account. I had him check the line, and he informed me that it had gone back up to ND by 6! This was my chance to middle the spreads! I figured chances were bet365's line was still at 4.5, since theirs fluctuates less, since they see more action from English bettors, and less from Americans and feel less pressure to adjust. If Notre Dame lost by five, I could get paid on two bets, with a risk of only the vig. Depending on the vigs, which tend to fluctuate in an attempt to even out the line swings, this would pay between 16 and 20-1.
Anyway, by the time I got back to my computer, and hopped on bodog to check the line, it was up to 6.5! Now a Notre Dame win by 5 or 6 would give me the middles. I got my $$ down on Michigan at 6.5, and opened up bet365...
...where the line had moved back up to 6--!
Fuck.
No middle to be had.
ND wasn't about to win by 6 1/4 points. I don't care how much of a genius Charlie Weis is. I don't care if he has a slide rule and an abbacus jammed up his, um...booty. 'Ain't happenin.'
Now what? Retreat and take ND giving 6, guaranteeing I lose the vig, but nothing more or let it ride?
All (most) signs pointing toward a close outcome I let it ride. Of course, the outcome was anything but close.
Michigan, 47-21. Stick that up your Fighting Irish Booty.
(Currently it is halftime of the SC-Nebraska game, SC is up 14-3, and that Booty is lookin' good. Meanwhile, I look forward to Michigan State getting TROUNCED by a completely pissed off Notre Dame squad already bent on revenge for last year's OT heartbreaker, once again showing why I root for Notre Dame when they play Michigan. Booty.
Bootybootybootybootybooty....
If you were an NCAA Championship calibre team, who just lost their Heisman-quality quarterback, whould you rather replace him with a guy named Colt McCoy, or a guy named John David Booty?
Colt McCoy's parents should be spayed and neutered for naming him Colt. It's like they wanted to reinforce the notion that they had a feud going with thte Hatfields. It's enough to make me wonder if the other Longhorns ask him if his family has a still out behind their trailer. At least he went to Texas.
John David Booty's parents were dealt a bad hand, but they had the sense not to reinforce their unfortunate last name with a farm animal first name, like Sheep. Or how about Ram Booty? Why the hell not? John David may be a little boring, but it's safe. Their kid will only get beat up for his last name.
But I'm curious about his middle name. Why do I know it? Is the press calling him that so we don't confuse him with the other John Booty? Like calling President Bush Dubya? Or is he some kind of mass murderer, like John Wayne Gacy? (Is it mass murderers, or serial killers who get middle names? Or is it assassins? John Wilkes Booth, Lee Harvey Oswald...I guess it's not serial killers, or we would know David Berkowitz's middle name.)
Mockery aside, I suppose at this point our preference has to be for Booty, since Texas lost last week to Ohio State, but USC hasn't really played anyone good yet. Can we count Nebraska as "good?" SC is a 17 point favorite, but at least Nebraska is ranked--for now.
The better Booty performs, or the more SC wins with him, the less I expect from Matt Leinart. In the past there have been many schools that basically turned into quarterback factories. Usually the first stud quarterback in a long string would go on to have a successful NFL career (Jim Kelly, Jim McMahon) but their successors, who have tended to have even more in the way of Heismans and gaudy stats, have flopped in the NFL. Of course there have been exceptions (Bernie Kosar, Steve Young), but look at the guys who haven't made it. Gino Torretta? Ken Dorsey? (Miami) Charlie Ward*? Chirs Weinke? (Florida State) Ty Detmer? (BYU) Danny Wuerffel? Rex Grossman**? (Florida)
*Not his fault. Crummy point guard though.
**Jury is still out. And what about Kyle Orton? Will Brees/Orton go down in history like Dawson/Griese? Does anybody even remember that those guys went to Purdue? For that matter, does anybody even remember that Purdue was favored by 3 vs. Notre Dame last year?
Go Boilermakers!
Crap. Earlier I was amusing you, or at least myself with speculations regarding Colt McCoy and John Wayne Booty, er, John David Booty, when I could have been giving you my college picks. Later I logged those (About an hour before game time, but I lost my connection, and when I tried to save my blog update, I lost that too. So, here are my picks, a little late except for the 8:00 game.
BOSTONCOLLEGE(-6.5)over brighamyoung
NORTHWESTERN(-17.5)over easternmichigan
STANFORD(pick)over navy
and, inadvertently, I did not really pick but I did bet on
michigan(+6.5)over NOTREDAME
I'll expalin below.
BC beat BYU last year in Utah, 20-3. I believe BYU was favored by 3. More recently, BC beat #18(?) Clemson in double OT last week, 34-33. On the other hand, BC failed to cover two weeks ago against Central Michigan, winning by 7, but losing my hard earned $$. Well, this week BC again put my $$ in jeopardy, and when BC broke a 20-20 tie with a field goal I found myself absurdly rooting for a BYU field goal, so that BC would have to break the tie. Then hopefully they might inadvertently score a touchdown while maneuvering into field goal position. (Remember, I went to grad school at Boston College, so I root for them wether I bet on them or not.) Well, BYU came through with a field goal, and forced overtime, and BC won in a 2nd overtime, and, more importantly, scored a touchdown and converted the extra point, to win 30-23, covering the 6.5 points.
I took Northwestern giving 17.5 because Eastern lost last week to Michigan State 52-20, and last year Northwestern beat Michigan State 49-14. Perhaps I should ahve considered that Northwestern lost last week to New Hampshire 34-17. Who the hell are they? What conference are they in? Um, the Atlantic 10--I just checked. Northwestern won, but failed to cover, 14-6. Ooops.
I have Stanford over Navy with no line. The spread on bet365 fluctuated between Stanford by 1, and a pick. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick opened a bodog account today, and got Stanford as a 1 point dog. Good for him. He also took Temple as a 42 point dog at Minnesota. Bad for him. Minnesota won and covered, 62-0. (Temple also lost to Louisville last week, 62-0. Next week's game at Western Michigan should prove to be closer. I have such faith in the Directional Michigans. Of course, I am 0-2 betting against them this season....) Last year Stanford beat Navy in Annapolis, 41-38. They also lost to #8 UCLA 30-27, and #6 Notre Dame 38-31, and beat a decent Arizona State team 45-35. Navy lost to Notre Dame, 42-21. So there you go. The game starts in about a half an hour.
And now, the game I didn't mean to bet on. Before the line came out I figured Notre Dame would be favored by about 6.5. My reasoning was that a) Last year Notre Dame won by 7 in Ann Arbor, and b) ND convicingly beat Penn State last week, rising to #2 and answering doubts raised by their narrow escape at Georgia Tech, and c) Michigan hadn't played anybody good yet, so if the line was much below 7 the ND money might come pouring in. On the other hand, doubters would still remember the Tech game, and reason that Michigan is better than Tech (but Penn State might be too) so I figured the Michigan money would jump all over any line of 7 or more. Meanwhile, Pugilant Mick figured the line would be more like 3.5 to 4.5, but said he thought ND would win by 7 or more, beating my spread estimate as well as his.
The Notre Dame-Michigan line opened with ND as a 7 point favorite. Money poured in on the Wolverines, and the line dropped to 6.5, and then down to 4.5. At that point I'd wished I'd taken Michigan +7, so I could middle the spreads by taking Notre Dame -4.5. I was still to scared to bet this spread either way, but the line movement had me extremely intrigued. (Last year I eventually took ND+7, but only for 1/2 my standard bet.) I suspect that Michigan's streak of 5 games decided by 3 points or less--of which I believe two were decided in OT, and the others were swung by scores within the final 10 seconds or so--may have been a big factor in the heavy betting on Michigan. Also this rivalry has a long history of being decided by 3 points or less, frequently on the final drive. What I know is that personally I was still scared to take ND giving 4.5, and these were the reasons why.
Well, I was away from the internet when Pugilant Mick called me to discuss pointspreads, having just opened his bodog account. I had him check the line, and he informed me that it had gone back up to ND by 6! This was my chance to middle the spreads! I figured chances were bet365's line was still at 4.5, since theirs fluctuates less, since they see more action from English bettors, and less from Americans and feel less pressure to adjust. If Notre Dame lost by five, I could get paid on two bets, with a risk of only the vig. Depending on the vigs, which tend to fluctuate in an attempt to even out the line swings, this would pay between 16 and 20-1.
Anyway, by the time I got back to my computer, and hopped on bodog to check the line, it was up to 6.5! Now a Notre Dame win by 5 or 6 would give me the middles. I got my $$ down on Michigan at 6.5, and opened up bet365...
...where the line had moved back up to 6--!
Fuck.
No middle to be had.
ND wasn't about to win by 6 1/4 points. I don't care how much of a genius Charlie Weis is. I don't care if he has a slide rule and an abbacus jammed up his, um...booty. 'Ain't happenin.'
Now what? Retreat and take ND giving 6, guaranteeing I lose the vig, but nothing more or let it ride?
All (most) signs pointing toward a close outcome I let it ride. Of course, the outcome was anything but close.
Michigan, 47-21. Stick that up your Fighting Irish Booty.
(Currently it is halftime of the SC-Nebraska game, SC is up 14-3, and that Booty is lookin' good. Meanwhile, I look forward to Michigan State getting TROUNCED by a completely pissed off Notre Dame squad already bent on revenge for last year's OT heartbreaker, once again showing why I root for Notre Dame when they play Michigan. Booty.
Bootybootybootybootybooty....
posted by roQQ | 10:58 PM
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