Irish Voodoo Incest
Just finished 9th out of 255 in a $5 NL Rebuy tournament on pokerroom.com, winning a whopping $38. Too bad I didn't do better in the $10 Rebuy earlier....or in that one for that matter.
Meanwhile, it's about time for the football weekend to get under way. The only game I truly give a shit about is Michigan State-Notre Dame. The good news is that after playing Michigan Notre Dame is 2-5 the last 7 years, which flies in the face of my expectation that Notre Dame will beat Moo U like a gong, motivated by both last week's loss to Michigan, and by revenge for their OT loss to the Spartans last year. The line opened with the Irish favored by 4.5, but has since dropped to 3, as money has poured in on the other side. No team seems as able to garner expectations both so high and so low. Everyone either thinks ND has a legitimate national title shot, or that they are vastly overrated and play a schedule loaded with creampuffs, when the truth is more than likely somewhere in between. So what do we know?
We don't exactly KNOW, but rumor has it that a cabal of defrocked priests has resurrected a giant doll, just to befoul it in an ancient rite too wretched to describe here. The phenomenon known as the Sparty Stigmata was not enough to slow down Drew Stanton last year, so now all the stops will be pulled out, not to mention fingernails, hair, bones from sockets....Lets just say that the howls of pain and torment will be drowned out only by the beating of thousands of drums, the roar of flames reaching the sky, and chanting in Latin. If calling on the forces of darkness won't create huge holes in the Spartan defense, what will? What defense, you ask? Well, good point. What the Irish would really like to see is Drew Stanton getting injured a bit sooner this year, preferably in the first half. The Palmer deluxe, 2nd play of the game? That'll work. Of course, the results of this desperate and twisted ritual are unpredictable, much like incest chased with nine months of crack and Wild Turkey. The luck of the Irish may have them winning, maybe even covering the spread, but the karma of the Irish is a bitch.
Speaking of the luck o' the Irish, Pugilant Mick has a five game parlay going on NCAA games, which I believe pays out at 120-1. By the time the parlay is resolved and the big game is underway, I may have to change his name to Downright Belligerant Mick. I have the over/under for him at 10 beers and 3 Cape Codders, unless he decides to sleep instead of staying up all night.
Enough about MSU-ND, since I'm not betting on it anyway. I AM betting on the Minnesota at Purdue game. I'm taking the OVER, which has dropped from 64 to 60.5 in the last 12 hours or so. I'm expecting about 78 or so. I think this may be the highest over/under I've ever seen. I was going to take Minnesota, but with these outstanding offenses, and these outstandingly BAD defenses I feel like I might as well be betting on the special olympics, sans Jimmy.
If I had taken the Golden Gophers, it would have been the 5th road favorite I took this weekend, all in either divisional or conference matchups. This could be very bad, of course. Home dogs in rivalry games tend to be dangerous to go against, as they tend to overperform. Basically I am counting on there being a significant gap between these teams. I will probably be happy if I go 3-2, and get the over on the Gopher game.
ucla(-3)overWASHINGTON At some point Ty Willingham is going to whup the Huskies into shape. Until then I will continue to bet against them. UCLA's offense is too good to have any business letting this be a close game, but their defense is bad enough to make that a possibility.
cincy(+2)overPITTSBURGH Bengals and Steelers, not Bearcats and Panthers--we're in the NFL now; stay with me...OK? Ok. The Bengals are hot right now, while the Steelers seem kind of lost. Of course Cincy doesn't have the defense that Jacksonville does, but they will be motivated...of course the Steelers will be too--they don't want to start out 1-2 and have to scrape their way into the playoffs like last year. I expect the AFC to be even more competitive this year, with the Chargers and Ravens joining last year's playoff teams to create a bit of a logjam at the top. The Steelers may have a chance to be the first team to win consecutive Super Bowls as a Wild Card team, as well as the first to win the Super Bowl after finishing 3rd in their division. This line is still 2 on bet365, but has dropped to 1 on bodog. Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks the Steelers might not be ready for this game.
chicago(-3)overMINNESOTA This is the kind of game where you really ought to take the Vikings. The Bears look hot, but they've been beating up on the Packers and Lions, while the Vikings have scraped out victories against the 'Skins and Panthers, who are supposed to be decent teams. Personally, My list of most overrated teams would probably include these Viking victims, along with Pittsburgh and Miami, though shortly most of the hype on the 'Fins should be sorted out. I'm not crazy about taking the Bears on turf indoors, and I'm not sure if Rex Grossmann will continue to look like Sid Luckman against a decent team, (no, I've never seen Luckman play--did they have TV back then?) but they look confident right now, and their defense has a chance to bury alot of teams. This is their chance to put their stamp on the NFC North race early. On bodog this line has been at 4 most of the week, and the bet365 line has finally moved to 4 within the last day.
baltimore(-6.5)overCLEVELAND Another one of those questionable lines. Are the Browns really that much worse? At the moment I say yes, since the Ravens seem to be one of the early hot teams, and the Browns' offense has been inconsistent even when not opposed by a solid unit like this one. (The bodog line is 7, and I have to admit that the half-point makes me feel like I got a bargain. The variance in spreads has definitely encouraged action on my part.)
atlanta(-3.5)overNEWORLEANS The Saints' new offense has me a little nervous here, especially since I haven't gotten to watch the Falcons run wild the way they apparently have, and I consider Atlanta to be another team that tends to get overrated. Meanwhile, they apparenly are another hot team, and they have a solid defense, unlike New Orleans. I haven't done too well against the Saints in the past. I lost when they won outright against the Panthers in last year's opener, and then I shied away from alot of games where the Saints could have come through for me, such as their loss to the Giants. It is a new day in New Orleans, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out. Theoretically I like the Saints against weak teams, but not against good defenses that can keep the lid on Bush and Brees. I also like the 3.5, since bodog has been at 4 all week. Every one of my pro spreads has been a half point to a point "better" on bet365, and in every case the money has been coming in on my side, for whatever it's worth.
Meanwhile, it's about time for the football weekend to get under way. The only game I truly give a shit about is Michigan State-Notre Dame. The good news is that after playing Michigan Notre Dame is 2-5 the last 7 years, which flies in the face of my expectation that Notre Dame will beat Moo U like a gong, motivated by both last week's loss to Michigan, and by revenge for their OT loss to the Spartans last year. The line opened with the Irish favored by 4.5, but has since dropped to 3, as money has poured in on the other side. No team seems as able to garner expectations both so high and so low. Everyone either thinks ND has a legitimate national title shot, or that they are vastly overrated and play a schedule loaded with creampuffs, when the truth is more than likely somewhere in between. So what do we know?
We don't exactly KNOW, but rumor has it that a cabal of defrocked priests has resurrected a giant doll, just to befoul it in an ancient rite too wretched to describe here. The phenomenon known as the Sparty Stigmata was not enough to slow down Drew Stanton last year, so now all the stops will be pulled out, not to mention fingernails, hair, bones from sockets....Lets just say that the howls of pain and torment will be drowned out only by the beating of thousands of drums, the roar of flames reaching the sky, and chanting in Latin. If calling on the forces of darkness won't create huge holes in the Spartan defense, what will? What defense, you ask? Well, good point. What the Irish would really like to see is Drew Stanton getting injured a bit sooner this year, preferably in the first half. The Palmer deluxe, 2nd play of the game? That'll work. Of course, the results of this desperate and twisted ritual are unpredictable, much like incest chased with nine months of crack and Wild Turkey. The luck of the Irish may have them winning, maybe even covering the spread, but the karma of the Irish is a bitch.
Speaking of the luck o' the Irish, Pugilant Mick has a five game parlay going on NCAA games, which I believe pays out at 120-1. By the time the parlay is resolved and the big game is underway, I may have to change his name to Downright Belligerant Mick. I have the over/under for him at 10 beers and 3 Cape Codders, unless he decides to sleep instead of staying up all night.
Enough about MSU-ND, since I'm not betting on it anyway. I AM betting on the Minnesota at Purdue game. I'm taking the OVER, which has dropped from 64 to 60.5 in the last 12 hours or so. I'm expecting about 78 or so. I think this may be the highest over/under I've ever seen. I was going to take Minnesota, but with these outstanding offenses, and these outstandingly BAD defenses I feel like I might as well be betting on the special olympics, sans Jimmy.
If I had taken the Golden Gophers, it would have been the 5th road favorite I took this weekend, all in either divisional or conference matchups. This could be very bad, of course. Home dogs in rivalry games tend to be dangerous to go against, as they tend to overperform. Basically I am counting on there being a significant gap between these teams. I will probably be happy if I go 3-2, and get the over on the Gopher game.
ucla(-3)overWASHINGTON At some point Ty Willingham is going to whup the Huskies into shape. Until then I will continue to bet against them. UCLA's offense is too good to have any business letting this be a close game, but their defense is bad enough to make that a possibility.
cincy(+2)overPITTSBURGH Bengals and Steelers, not Bearcats and Panthers--we're in the NFL now; stay with me...OK? Ok. The Bengals are hot right now, while the Steelers seem kind of lost. Of course Cincy doesn't have the defense that Jacksonville does, but they will be motivated...of course the Steelers will be too--they don't want to start out 1-2 and have to scrape their way into the playoffs like last year. I expect the AFC to be even more competitive this year, with the Chargers and Ravens joining last year's playoff teams to create a bit of a logjam at the top. The Steelers may have a chance to be the first team to win consecutive Super Bowls as a Wild Card team, as well as the first to win the Super Bowl after finishing 3rd in their division. This line is still 2 on bet365, but has dropped to 1 on bodog. Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks the Steelers might not be ready for this game.
chicago(-3)overMINNESOTA This is the kind of game where you really ought to take the Vikings. The Bears look hot, but they've been beating up on the Packers and Lions, while the Vikings have scraped out victories against the 'Skins and Panthers, who are supposed to be decent teams. Personally, My list of most overrated teams would probably include these Viking victims, along with Pittsburgh and Miami, though shortly most of the hype on the 'Fins should be sorted out. I'm not crazy about taking the Bears on turf indoors, and I'm not sure if Rex Grossmann will continue to look like Sid Luckman against a decent team, (no, I've never seen Luckman play--did they have TV back then?) but they look confident right now, and their defense has a chance to bury alot of teams. This is their chance to put their stamp on the NFC North race early. On bodog this line has been at 4 most of the week, and the bet365 line has finally moved to 4 within the last day.
baltimore(-6.5)overCLEVELAND Another one of those questionable lines. Are the Browns really that much worse? At the moment I say yes, since the Ravens seem to be one of the early hot teams, and the Browns' offense has been inconsistent even when not opposed by a solid unit like this one. (The bodog line is 7, and I have to admit that the half-point makes me feel like I got a bargain. The variance in spreads has definitely encouraged action on my part.)
atlanta(-3.5)overNEWORLEANS The Saints' new offense has me a little nervous here, especially since I haven't gotten to watch the Falcons run wild the way they apparently have, and I consider Atlanta to be another team that tends to get overrated. Meanwhile, they apparenly are another hot team, and they have a solid defense, unlike New Orleans. I haven't done too well against the Saints in the past. I lost when they won outright against the Panthers in last year's opener, and then I shied away from alot of games where the Saints could have come through for me, such as their loss to the Giants. It is a new day in New Orleans, and it should be interesting to see how it plays out. Theoretically I like the Saints against weak teams, but not against good defenses that can keep the lid on Bush and Brees. I also like the 3.5, since bodog has been at 4 all week. Every one of my pro spreads has been a half point to a point "better" on bet365, and in every case the money has been coming in on my side, for whatever it's worth.
posted by roQQ | 12:48 AM
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