The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

While I'm thinking about it, let me just say that I have been playing PartyPoker's new Backgammon site, and it's been a real bloodbath. I'm gonna have to study this game, and play at lower stakes. There's no sense in winning in NLHE cash games, then losing it all and more on Backgammon...I'm not sure if there is Backgammon tilt, but I'm pretty sure I was on it a couple of days ago, when I was basically doubling as an ATM...

And now, on to my NFL picks.

Gambling problem? What?

I generally try to look for undervalued underdogs in the NFL, but right now there are some rather inflated spreads that I don't think I can resist, either because

a) the favorites have offenses taht are really GOOD

b) the 'dogs just may be mind-numbingly BAD

c) hold on, I may be able to work in UGLY too...

RAVENS(-12.5)raiders--Raider's BAD may already be getting upgraded to UGLY--like their 27-0 loss to San Diego--their quaterback has a problem with his sense of direction--once threw a 35 yard pass the wrong way--UGLY(!!!)--and their coach just may be a manequin. Bill Simmons got this game with an 11 point spread, bodog's is now 13...I'm happy with bet365's 12.5.

COLTS(-13.5)texans--Colt offense--GOOD. Texans--BAD. Picking Mario Williams 1st, over Reggie Bush--UGLY. Perhaps even mildly retarded. Theoretically he will give the Texans the pass rush they need to pressure Peyton Manning. Maybe someday--I don't think it's happening yet.

BENGALS(-10)browns--I really don't like big spreads in divisional games, since these tend to be close and hard-fought. That having been said, I love the Bengals offense, especially Carson Palmer. (I categorically deny that I am having his love-child however...for now.) Word is the Bengals defense is also much improved. I'm not convinced of this, but they may have learned a valuable lesson during their playoff loss to Pittsburgh. Taking out the other team's quarterback works pretty well. To recap, Double digit spread--BAD(but bodog's is 11). Bengal offense--GOOD. Trent Green injury--GOOD, I mean, UGLY.

rams(-3)49ERS--the Rams may be ready for a letdown after upsetting Denver last week, but they may actually be alot better than anyone thought. Again, I try to be careful in these divisional games, but the 'Niners suck last I checked, so what the heck. Rams--GOOD?
Niners--BAD. Road divisional game--not UGLY enough to scare me off.

And now, just to show you that I have some restraint, here are the other games that look similar to these, that I am not betting on.

CHARGERS(-12)titans--The Chargers looked great against the Raiders, but I think the Raiders' ineptitude is the main culprit here. Let's not anoint Phillip Rivers the next Carson Palmer just yet. Maybe the next Rex Grossman.

(Meanwhile, the 1st half of Stanford-Navy is winding down, and the Middies lead 10-0. Oops. I guess Stanford really sucks. Ouch.

BRONCOS(-10.5)chiefs--hmmm...no Trent Green? Maybe I will take Denver...

lions(+9)BEARS--The Lions' defense suddenly looks tough, but their offense hasn't done anything yet, and Chicago probably won't make life any easier for them. I hate the Bears with a big spread, since they don't have Colt-like or Beangal-esqe offensive firepower, but the Lions are worse on the road, and 13-3 or 16-3 doesn't seem unreasonable.

saints(-2)PACKERS--Packers look awful, and Saints are looking good, but this is the kind of game that bites you in the... BOOTY. Speaking of which, the USC-Nebraska game has about 5:00 left, and SC is just covering the 17.5 point spread, 28-10, and Booty is lookin' GOOD. (Sorry, can't help it. Is there a BA? Bootylovers anonymous? Get back to me. I need help. Yeah, I'll start going to meetings in...January. The whole idea of somebody who goes by roQQ boTTom entering some kind of ass-lover 12-step works on WAY too many levels....I guess I'm still in the denial phase....