Sunday Night

I didn't bet any games today, except for the one that's coming up, where I took
nygiants(-1)overPHILADELPHIA.  The line was Philly by one, but I sold two points for some positive vig.  We'll see if that comes back to bite me in the ass.

Meanwhile, I went 3-1 on college yesterday, with TCU failing to cover at SMU being the lone disappointment.  Texas beat Oklahoma State, 41-36, for a total of 77, to easily cover the 64 o/u, though not as easily as Baylor and WVU covered their 84 point o/u, 70-63.

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If Lawrence Tynes makes that FG, I push instead of win.  Screw giving up points.  I lose either way with him missing, though.

Saturday Picks

I just watched that douche on ESPNGame Day that looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry misquote some Shakespeare about how shitty Arkansas is right now.  Their shittiness has reached Shakespearean proportions, apparently.

Speaking of which, I have TEXASA&M(-13.5)overarkansas today.  So far the only college game I've bet this year was A&M over SMU.  Aggies overed by about 30.  This week I'm trusting A&M's freshman quarterback, Johnny Manziel, their homefield advantage, and just how much the Razorbacks suck.

I also took tcu(-16)overSMU.  I'm riding the SMU Mustangs into their own grave, until they show me signs of life.  Last I checked TCU was pretty good too, maybe better than the Aggies, who they replaced in the Big XII.

I took OSU-texas OVER 64.  I'm tempted to take OSU(+1.5), since I suspect they are better than Texas and are at home, but I really want Texas to win, so I'm settling for rooting for points.  I wanted to take WVU-baylor OVER...but the over was 84.  That's really fucking high, especially when WVU only beat Maryland 31-21.  On the other hand, Baylor doesn't play alot of defense...

Took pennstate(+3)overILLINOIS.  This line moved from 2.5-3 when I was getting my bet down.  Thank you.  Even Penn State's gutted roster has won tow games, more than the Illini can say.  Penn State is up 7-0 already.  Thank you again.

I suspect Michigan State will ahve a tough time with Ohio State.  The Spartans are favored by three at home, which didn't help any against Notre Dame...wait, we were favored by six vs. Notre Dame.  Fuck.

Baylor is up 7-0.  We'll see how long that lasts.

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Penn State is making me look smart, 21-0, while the Aggies are making me look not so smart, 10-10.  Baylor leads, 28-21, with 5 minutes to go in the first half, and WVU is in the red zone.  Over 84 looks like a gimmie right now.  WVU just scored.  28-28.

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35 all at half.  Yeah, I'd say it's going over.  I'm going out on a limb.

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Aggies won, 58-10.  Penn State won, 35-7.  WVU beat Baylor, 70-63.  Hello OVER!

Happy Birthday to Arya...

Tuesday Morning, about an hour before my daughter was born, my wife and I tried to do an over/under.  It had been 10 or 11 hours since the Monday night game, and about a day-and-a-half since I'd had any sort of gambling acton.  I needed a fix, so I asked my wife to guess our baby's weight.

Our son had been 10 pounds, 14 ounces at birth, and our first daughter was eight pounds, four ounces.  That made the middle between them nine pounds, nine ounces.  My wife believed that she was even bigger  at the end of this pregnancy than she had been for her first.  Despite this, I still held that I would go UNDER if 9-9 was the O/U.

Some old guy who worked at the hospital came in the room and overheard us.  He took a look at my wife's belly, and said, "Eight pounds, twelve ounces."


Carolina opened as 3-point underdogs to the Giants.  By Wednesday, the Panthers were favored by 1.5-1, and you could find them favored by 3.  I took nygiants(+3)overCAROLINA.  Then I found out that in addition to the injured Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks would not play.

Well, the line makes more sense now.

I still think I'd take the Giants.  Their history makes it look like homefield advantage doesn't matter for them, or rather, that they have a home filed DISadvantage.  Their road record has been better than their home record for a while now.

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I wrote a bit about college games yesterday, but didn't save it, so when my computer shut down to do some meaningless updates, I lost it all.  I may get back to this.

Meanwhile, I've made several bets on the NFL this week, most of them back on Tuesday or Wednesday, meaning, back BEFORE the Giants destroyed the Panthers.  Only my chronic tendonitis is keeping me from patting myself on the back right now.

I thought long and hard (mmmmmmmmmmmmmm...) about taking detroit(-3.5)overTENNESSEE, but now the line has moved to 4...this is a game the Lions should CRUSH the opposition, despite being on the road, but home teams went 14-2 last week,  and this feels like a game the Lions will find a way to fuck up.

Fuck it.  I took detroit(-4)overTENNESSEE.  In related news I'm starting Mikel Leshoure at flex in one of my fantasy leagues, sort of a desperation play, since I'm projected to lose by 20 or 30 now that Cam Newton scored fewer points than his own tight end Thursday night.

Also took CLEVELAND(+3)overbuffalo.  Hitting those home dogs this week.  The Browns were competitive last week too...meanwhile, the guy who is a heavy favorite to beat me in fantasy this week offered me CJ Spiller for Doug Martin.  Martin's job is safer, but Spiller is the best fantasy player in the league this year.  Even if you think the Bills management are idiots, you'd think they could continue to get Spiller the ball when Fred Jackson gets healthy.  Also, neither one of them are 25 carry-a-game grinders, so you'd think they'd be good with 15 or so touches/week each.

Anyway, I took the trade.  He may have just handed me the top two backs in the league.  The trade doesn't go through for two days, so I'm rooting for Martin today, but Spiller on the season...provided the trade goes thru...though I still have Martin in my other league either way.

Jesus.  Spiller just scored.  I hope this guy doesn't veto his own trade.  Cleveland trails, 14-0.

Took MIAMI(+3)overnyjets  Home dogs.  Maybe I was the only one paying attention to what the 'Fins did to the Raiders last week...which doesn't make me confident about
OAKLAND(+4)overpittsburgh.  The Steelers currently have no running game.  The Raiders defense sucks, but at least they'll be dealing with a one dimensional Steeler offense traveling to the west coast.

ARIZONA(+4)overphiladelphia  Either Philly is going to break out and have a big game, or they are going to lose one.  Home team & points.

tampabay(+8)overDALLAS  Tampa has alot of question marks, but they played the Giants tough last week.  As talented as these NFC East teams are, none of them are terribly consistent. 

I have stlouis(+8)overCHICAGO  The Rams look capable of losing alot of close games this year.  Hopefully this is one of them.

It's about halftime for the early games.

Winning:
Miami(+3)10, NY Jets 3
Dallas 10, Tampa Bay(+8) 7
Chicago 10 St Louis (+8) 3

Losing:
Tennessee 20, Detroit(-4) 9
Buffalo 14, Cleveland(+3) 7

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For the week, I won with

nygiants(+3)overCAROLINA
tampabay(+8)overDALLAS
ARIZONA(+4)overphiladelphia and
OAKLAND(+4)over pittsburgh

lost with

stlouis(+8)overCHIACAGO
detroit(-4)overTENNESSEE
CLEVELAND(+3)overbuffalo

and pushed with

MIAMI(+3)overnyjets.

The one that got away...

I was trying to throw down on nyjets(+6)overPITTSBURGH, but two things stopped me.

a.) The line dropped to 4.5 or 5, depending on where you look.  This is not insurmountable, if you are willing to pay some more vig at 5dimes, but...

b.) 5dimes website froze up about 10 minutes before game time.  Are they getting crazy action?  Is it my half-assed computer?  Not sure, but the timing makes me not want to blame my piece of shit computer for once.

If I want to go jets+5 I can still do it.  Otherwise, this is a 4:00 game, so maybe 5dimes will clear up in the next couple of hours.

Otherwise, this is making it a bit tough to report my other picks, since some of my bets are on 5dimes.  Some of this will be from memory.

Took NYGIANTS(-7)overtampabay.  Initially my thought was that Tampa Bay was the value here, but I did a bit of math using the power ratings at covers.com, and according to their power ratings, the Giants should be favored by 10.  (The lines were from 7 to 9)

Right now Tampa Bay is up, 10-6, which makes me think I should have trusted my own line over covers.com's power rating.  The Giants can be notoriously inconsistent, making it easy to over or underrate them.

I took minnesota(-2.5)overINDIANAPOLIS, basically betting that the Viking pass rush would give Luck problems, and that AD won't break anything this week.  Right now Indy leads 7-6, troubling both because Indy leads, and because they lead by one, which could lead to Minny winning by 2.  Sad, because my initial thought was that Indy should be favored by one.  The Viking steam changed my opinion.

Make that 17-6, Indy.  Remind me to remember to take home field advantage seriously.

Speaking of which, I took washington(-2.5)overSTLOUIS.  This one hasn't started yet.  If the 'Skins can win in New Orleans, they ought to be able to handle STL...hopefully.

At the moment, my play of the day is taking oakland(-1)overMIAMI on 5dimes, and MIAMI(+3)overoakland on bovada.  At the half, Oakland leads, 10-7.  Go middle!

Otherwise, I already mentioned I had baltimore(+3)overPHILADELPHIA...Baltimore is up 17-7 at the half, so gotta like that, as well as yesterday's texasa&m(-10)overSMU, won by the Aggies, 48-3.

Philly is only down 17-14 & is threatening.  Meanwhile, I've taken SEATTLE(+3.5)overdallas.  Trusting dogs and home field over steam...or rather, the steam is coming in on the Seahawks as well, because of their home field advantage.

I'm taking nyjets(+6)overPITTSBURGH  (finally).  How many bad bets have I made while thinking about that bet?

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The smoke has cleared from the early games, and...it could have been worse.  The Vikings lost, and so did I, 23-20.  Don't let fantasy studs blind you to the horribleness of horrible teams.  Minnesota had AD  last year too, and they won--what, four games?

The Giants made a big dramatic comeback, and won by seven, and I escaped with a push.  They actually got up by a TD, gave up a quick score to let the Bucs tie it, then drove down into scoring position.  With about a minute to go, Andre Brown, who I'd never heard of before, had the presence of mind to slide down on the two rather than score.  He set the Giants up to run down the clock and win with a field goal.  It was a smart play, and it had me swearing at the tv.  I'm not sure if Tom Coughlin determined that there was slightly more time left than the Giants could comfortably run out, or if he realized that thousands of New Yorkers were about to not cover, but Brown ran it in on the next play.  They got the extra point, and got a pick in the final minute, and I pushed.

The sad part is that if I'd taken the Bucs I would have had 8 or 9 points, and would have been covering for almost the entire game.  Until I started looking at covers.com's power ratings I would have taken  the Bucs, too.

I lump those games together because outside information got me to second guess my own opinions, and to go against them.  I went 0-1-1 on those two.

Meanwhie, the Dolphins took over their game vs. the Raiders, and won, 35-13.  It lost me my possible middle, not a big deal, though I would have felt way clever to pull off a win/win, or even a win/push.

The Ravens blew their lead, and lost, 24-23 to the Eagles, but covered.  I'll take it.

This week I like the Aggs...

Just laid 9.5 on Texas A&M at 5dimes at -120--for those of you who don't follow, that's texasa&m(-9.5)overSMU.  I was real iffy about this bet, since I feel like the Aggies will disappoint this year...and every other year, really...it's what they do.  Then I remembered that this is week 3.  They have all year to disappoint, and seven more SEC games left on the slate.  If this Johnny Manzone kid is going to live up to his hype at all, they should torch SMU.  Baylor just beat them by 25 or so.  Of course, if Baylor was better than A&M this year, would you be shocked?

Little update:  SMU is driving, and a TD would make it 27-7...A&M.  Baylor may be better than the Aggies this year, but not on defense.

Louisville is up 36-14 over North Carolina.  This will be less humiliating for UNC if the Cardnails manage to join the Big XII.  Don't want to lose to anybody from that conference the ACC has been gutting for the last decade.  This game is a nice matchup of two schools I could try to get an MBA from in the next couple of years...UNC if I want an expensive school with a great reputation, but online...Louisville if I want to earn the degree in person, for considerably less money.

If I want to start a degree online, but have the possibility of finishing it in person, I could apply to Indiana University.  Within driving distance of Louisville, and will let their online students take classes in person.  UNC won't allow this, bringing suspicion to their entire program.

Speaking of suspicion, does Notre Dame really want to hitch their wagon to the ACC?  Seriously?  UNC is now down 39-19.  Nice comeback.

That's Johnny Manziel.  Over under for how many SEC wins the Aggies get before I learn his name:  pronounciation: 0.5.  Spelling: 1.5.  I haven't checked the schedule yet to see how many games I actually expect A&M to win, or how soon I expect these wins.

Manziel just ran 15 yards for a score--34-3.  I may know his name by the end of the day.

Notre Dame is a 6 point dog in East Lansing vs. MSU...5 some places.  Personally I think this line is too high, given our results vs. the Irish the last couple of years.  I'm not betting against us, but I may try for a middle.

A&M just scored again...41-3.  Manziel?  Manziel.

I'd talk shit about Michigan playing cupcakes (UMass, 56-13 last I checked) but they did sign up to get crushed by Alabama two weeks ago, so they've earned a break.  Hopefully we'll send Notre Dame back   home 2-1 and pissed off.  Ultimately, I think I could get used to playing Notre Dame a week before they play Michigan...until they cut us from their schedule in favor of Wake Forest or Syracuse.  (Syracuse just took back the lead vs. SUNY Stony Brook.)  I forget, are they a score away from a humiliating loss for the Big East this year, or the ACC?

I forgot that Garrett Gilbert transferred to SMU and is now their starting quarterback.  Would that have stopped me from betting on TAMU?  I doubt it.

I need to go cook some meat before MSU-Notre Dame.  Laters.

Only 3 days between Weeks 1 & 2

I didn't pick any games this week.  I don't like to pick games unless I bet on them, and I haven't put any money online...yet.

But I must say...I loved TAMPAY(+3)over carolina.  I guess the Panthers are the sexy pick to step up for anybody predicting the demise of the Saints or Falcons.  There was no real reason not to expect Josh Freeman to bounce back from a disappointing sophomore campaign.  If you liked Carolina, you should have expected the Bucs to be favored by 1-2.5, much like the Broncos, who are favored by two at home against the Steelers.  The Sunday night matchup is scoreless, with the teams trading a punt apiece so far.

Neither team has shown themselves capable of running successfully so far.  Nor have the Broncos proven capable of holding on to the ball (one fumble), nor have the Steelers been able to protect Ben Roethlisberger.

Whatever.  I kind of liked Denver, and they won, but I kind of liked cincinnati(+7.5)over BALTIMORE, and that didn't happen.  San Diego-Oakland outcomes always look obvious after the game is over.  Picks made after the game is over are inherently lame.

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It's less than 24 hours away from the week 2 Thursday night game (Thursday night games all year--WTFF?!?!?!?!) and I am convinced that Green Bay is still overvalued, so I am taking chicago(+6)overGREENBAY.  I just deposited $$ on a square site (bovada) and a sharp site (5dimes).   5dimes has Green Bay by 5, due to their ultra sharp bettors, while bovada has Green Bay by 6, due to their ultra square bettors.

If the line moves up at all (it opened at 7) I will probably bet it again.

I feel like I have a moral obligation to root against Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans as long as they neglect defense &/or running in favor of throwing all day and exploiting the NFL's ever morphing rules.  Of course, I probably ought to root against the Lions in that case, though they at least try to play defense, and presumably will run more often if they find a way to keep one or two healthy running backs.

I don't feel a moral obligation to bet against these teams, but if they are overvalued it is probably a good idea.

It is almost Thursday night game time, and even the square site has the line down to GB by 5.  Apparently the public is off the Packers.