Poker profits trump hoops

I took BOSTON(-3)over orlando last Friday, but didn't want to post my bet until I knew if the Celtics injured in game 5 would play. They did, and Boston romped to a 12 point win that wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Rather than wait around and see if my bet was worth advertising, I headed up 281 North to Oklahoma, where I took down $779 playing NLHE at the Red River Commanche Casino. I didn't really see alot of bad play, but the deck hit me pretty hard in the head. I could have left up $900 or a grand before I pissed away $150 or so on 63s 862 3 x. I was up against a higher two pair, 8833. I should have realized a junk two pair was too weak to bet the river, but my opponent had been giving off such a strong whiny bitch loser vibe that I was convinced he would pay me off with a pair.

He totally reminded me of a guy I won a few hands against the last time I was in Vegas, but this guy wasn't as bad of a player as the other guy. I'm fairly convinced this guy has to be along-term loser since he had such a negative, fatalistic attitude, and he seemed incapable of keeping it to himself, but once he'd caught some cards it looked like he might wait 'til another day to blow his winnings. I waited for a while for the last two tables to combine, but decided the extra sleep lost might not be worth it, and left.

The Lakers are a 6 point favorite over the Celtics, now that they have finally beaten the Suns. I'll probably wait until game two or 3 to bet, though I still have Boston at 7/4 to win it all. This may be enough action for me for now.

The Blind Side leading the Blind

Bodog.com confronts would be sports gamblers with the slogan, "IT"S JUST ABOUT WINNING. Bet the NBA playoffs." The words are flanked by graphics of Dwight Howard and LeBron James going up for dunks. Kind of ironic, especially the morning after Boston trounced Orlando 94-71 to take a 3-0 lead in that series. I'm sure their ad campaign was put together weeks ago, but how hard would it be to throw up new graphics with some players who are actually...winning? You know, since that's what it's about, and what-not.

SUPER EASY. Especially since I've seen graphics on their site previously with the likes of Kobe Bryant. Pretty sure I've seen Kevin Garnett on there as well. If not, I'm sure they could whip off a pic of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, or somebody from the Celtics...since they're winning.

Anyway, last I checked it was all about covering the spread. Unless you're taking the money line or something. Just one more example of bodog insulting their customers' intellegence.

I had BOSTON(-3)over orlando last night. I'd post it here, but nobody reads this, whereas at least a few people post their picks on covers.com's facebook page, so that's where I've been posting lately. Even if only a few people check there, those people are all hardcore handicapping geeks, and therefore actually care about who picks what, even if they're just trying to glom off each other's winnings.

Speaking of glomming off each others' winnings, I finally had a lightbulb light up about 18 inches above my receeding hairline. That's why I'm giving my pick for the Lakers at Suns game right here, in the hopes that I get some readers. I will link a post on covers.com's facebook to here, right after I complete this post.

I'm not sure why this attempt to lure readers to this space is conjuring up an image of a dark room lined in plastic, like the ones Dexter uses to ritualistically kill his victims. Maybe it's because I've been reading Panic! by Michael Lewis,* and in my mind tout services are equivalent to stockbrokers, not only morally, but literally. For the purpose of this discussion, all you need to know about this book is that it makes it painfully obvious that the people on Wall Street who charge commissions for their expertise have no idea what they are doing.**

Apparently Michael Lewis sees some sort of parallels between finance and sport as well, since along with financial books like Liars Poker and Panic!, he has also written Moneyball and
The Blind Side. Yeah, that Michael Lewis. Same guy.

Same guy who inspired me to hope that the Detroit Lions would draft a left tackle last year, rather than Matthew Stafford. Or instead of Brandon Pettigrew, the Oklahoma State tight end the Lions took with the 20th pick, just before the Ravens took Michael Oher with the 22nd, and just after ESPN lauded the Ravens' Ozzie Newsome for his top-notch-ultra-consistent drafting prowess. Newsome's esteem for Oher confirmed for me the Lions' continued draft-day idiocy. I was convinced the Lions ought to take a left tackle, and wait for Sam Bradford this year. Without Stafford, the Lions lose that shootout vs Cleveland (might notta been a shootout, either) and get the top pick again this year.

At this point I'm happy though, since Stafford so far has been better than I expected, since Bradford got himself injured, and since the Lions got Ndamukong Suh this year. I'd take Stafford and Suh over Bradford and any left tackle you could name. The fact that the Lions could have had Oher with the 20th pick still chaps my ass, though. Pettigrew had better be a stud.

Where was I? Yeah, I've been reading Michael Lewis. So should you. And sometime soon I'm going to watch season 3 of Dexter.

Anyway, if you didn't want to put up with my above nonsense, you probably scrolled down to here. la lakers(+1)over PHOENIX. While this is one of those spots where I would usually count on the Lakers to slack off, the Celtic win last night ought to give them enough motivation to crush a Suns team who has shown no indication that they will stop the Lakers defensively. Ever. Not that the Suns never will stop the Lakers. It just wouldn't surprise me if we saw some personnel changes before that day.

If the Suns go off and drain some threes they could throw the outcome into doubt. They will need to give LA some help though. The Lakers aren't going to blow this one on their own. Right now they're playing well enough that I'm worried my bet of Boston at 7/4 to win it all may have been a mistake. On the other hand, the odds of that are down to 3/2.

To sum up, I'm catching up on Dexter, you should read Michael Lewis, bodog doesn't respect their customers, I love Ndamakong Suh, and the Lakers are going to win today, because they don't want the Celtics to get any rest. Not to give away how I'm leaning the next couple of games, but get out the brooms.

*Excellent read, by the way. The book is a collection of essays written before, during and after the last four big financial meltdowns.

**The big meltdowns in this book seem to indicate that the higher-ups on Wall Street that really do know what they're doing may not know either.

Day Off

I didn't bet today. ORLANDO(-9)atlanta moved to 9.5 by this afternoon, and while I liked Orlando to cover, I figured I wasn't getting good value at 9.5. The Magic won, 114-71. Now I'll probably have to take Atlanta next game at about +7.5, which seems fairly terrifying.

Meanwhile, zig zag indicated taking LALAKERS(-6.5)over utah, since they failed to cover in game one. Taking the home favorite in game 2 because they failed to cover in the first game seems a little weak, since the team who is behind 0-1 ought to be more motivated. I've been watching since about halfway through the third quarter, and the Lakers have been up by about 6 for most of it, though at the moment they've stretched their lead to 9, 105-96, with 2:38 to go. The game has been tight enough that my reluctance to bet it seems justified.

Yesterday I took boston(+7)over CLEVELAND, as dictated by zig zag. Ironically, Chad Millman's wiseguys told him not to zag against Cleveland, because they're too good. Glad I'd already bet before I read him, though I'd like to think I'd still take Boston. It isn't as if the Cavs haven't disappointed before. Boston won, 104-86.

I stayed away from PHOENIX(-4)over san antonio. I like home teams giving 4 or less, but I don't like the Suns' previous history vs. the Spurs. PHX won, 111-102. I figure on taking the Spurs tomorrow, but I'm not sure where I think the Celtics-Cavs series is going next. Apparently they don't play again until Friday, so I'll worry about that later.

Only one game tomorrow. san antonio(+2.5)over PHOENIX. I'd like more points, but tough shit....or not. I've paid the extra vig, for san antonio(+3)over PHOENIX. Apparently this one opened at PHX(-4.5), though now it's down to 2.5 everywhere, and apparently 66% of bettors are on Phoenix at this number, which probably means the Suns are going down.

LA won, 111-103

Retro Rice Burners

I've taken OVER 198 for Jazz at Lakers. I posted it on covers.com, though probably so close to game time that nobody could follow me. Right now they're about halfway into the 2nd, and LA is up, 41-28.

I find the new Toyota Avalon ads to be unintentionally ironic and bizarre. They play on nostalgia inspired by Mad Men, or perhaps that movie where Gwyneth Paltrow plays a stewardess. They call us back to a simpler time, a time when there were no Japanese cars. Don Draper would be proud--even if he celebrated a raise by buying a new Cadillac. No doubt Sterling-Cooper would be proud to successfully brand Toyota the new Cadillac, especially if they used art deco and pomade to do it.

Maybe it's just me, but the grille on the current Avalon reminds me of a Ford Fusion...or maybe the new Taurus. Not sure what that says about Toyota, Ford, or me.

53-45 at the half. Just slightly off-pace. We'll see if Phil Jackson makes the Lakers play that much more of a half-court game in the 2nd half. If the Jazz can find a way to take the lead I think this goes over. Otherwise...I'm concerned.

The Lakers won, 104-99. The OVER didn't come in until the last half minute or so. According to the zig-zag theory, I should take LA next game, since they didn't cover.

Also according to zag, boston(+6.5)over CLEVELAND should be the play. With my predeliction for taking home teams when the lines are tight, PHOENIX(-4)over san antonio should be another...especially since most places you'll pay 4.5, but I'm not crazy about the Suns history vs. the Spurs, so I may have to pass.

Basketball, Boxing & BMs

Sugar Shane Mosley lost a unanimous decision last night, after finding his way past Floyd Mayweather's defense in the first two rounds. While he failed to figure out how to press his early advantage, he at least managed to get Mayweather to come out and fight. Mosley may have lost, but he did enough to get boxing fans a win.

Today I've teased ATLANTA(-9)over milwaukee, and o/u 186 down to ATLANTA(-4)over milwaukee, over 181. Apparently a couple of covers.com experts like Milwaukee and the over. Oh yeah? Are their experts 18-6-1 for the playoffs?

Actually, I like their picks, other than I make my hay betting home teams whenever the line ranges from (-4) to (+4), so my tease is strictly an attempt to get the line into my sweet spot. The 186 o/u seems to be a reaction to the low score last game, so going over makes more sense than hoping the score stays down.

I got an order of 20 of whatever are the hottest wings Pizza Hut has last night, because it cost $3 more to split the order. This has not helped my digestive situation any. I have been invited to Pluckers for a going away party tonight, so my troubles are likely to continue. I'd set the odds of a normal BM tomorrow at about 4/1.

Speaking of BMs, if bodog ever unlocks the Laker line so I can tease it, I'll probably go LAKERS(-2.5), over 194. If you think I'm trying to insult the Lakers or Bodog, you're probably right. My only concern is that I think LA wants to play a half-court game, which could keep the score down if they're successful. Jazz games are high scoring as fuck though, so....

Prizefight on Derby Day

Much is made these days of the difficulties that arise when two or more sporting events are scheduled for the same time. Since I am instinctively reluctant to use new technologies, and since I find most events are less compelling when viewed after the fact, I usually cope by choosing one or the other, or by finding a pub where I can watch more than one game at the same time. Does this lead me to drink more? Sometimes. So be it.

This morning I was treated to another sort of double header, in front of tonight's Mayweather-Mosley fight. I watched Mayweather-Marquez while reading Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball. I'm not sure if they showed the entire fight, or if they skipped a couple of rounds, since the book distracted me enough to make me lose track of enough of the fight to throw that much doubt on the broadcast. Did The Book of Basketball transfix me enough so that time seemed to speed up, at least as measured in rounds of boxing? I'm not sure. If so this is a nice compliment.

Nice, but nothing to get carried away by, as I saw that fight live, on the big screen at Guantanamo Bay's infamous Tiki Bar.* I already knew that

a.) Mayweather wins in a 12 round decision
b.) Marquez got his ass kicked
c.) This wasn't a very good fight

Distracting me from this fight wasn't that much of a compliment, in other words.

While this may not have been a great fight, this was in spite of, or perhaps because of Mayweather's greatness. His greatness as a defender and counter puncher, that is. As long as Floyd is able to control the fight, and make his opponent attack him, his outstanding defense seems to give him an overwhelming advantage. A fight where he is able to dictate the terms, and control the tempo will showcase his natural gifts, and his tremendous skills, but will also be rather boring.

After this fight Mosley-Margarito came on. While I knew Mosley would win this fight, I didn't know when the end would come. Since my home computers are all on the fritz right now, I had no way of checking the outcome. Some combination of my food (potato chips, fried chicken) and drink (beer, margaritas) had conspired to force me into multiple bathroom trips this morning. While I still dipped into The Book of Basketball during the fight, the bout was getting more competition for my attention from my large intestine.

Mosley knocked out Margarito in the 9th round. To that point I hadn't left the couch. My sphincter had done it's job, and could now relax.

I hadn't seen Sugar Shane fight before, so I wanted to see what I could expect tonight. He struck me as quick and athletic. He struck Margarito any way he wanted. Marge looked ridiculously slow, and seemed to be continually off balance. He was saved by the bell at the end of the 8th round, and was wobbly enough that I would have been hugely disappointed if Mosley hadn't finished him in the next.

Mayweather will be a completely different opponent from Margarito, lightning quick, and never off-balance. Mosley is quick too, but one wonders if he can find his way past Floyds' stellar defense. I would like to see it, in part because I think the resulting Mosley-Pacquiao fight would likely be one for the ages. This one, (or Mayweather-Pacquiao) may be one for the ages as well, but is unlikely to be as fan-friendly, since if Mayweather gets his way, it will feature him playing defense and controlling the fight. If Mosley can find a way to hurt him, or to outpoint him, Floyd may have to mix it up. Otherwise, we will see Mayweather's technical mastery carry the day, while the bloodlust of boxing fans will be thwarted until another day.

I heard a story on NPR explain that rather than worry about Mayweather attacking him with his lightning speed, Mosley intended to bring the fight to Floyd. I'm not sure why this spoon feeding the story to the Latte sipping Prius drivers who listen to NPR bugs me. Honestly, I suspect the reporter is spoon-feeding boxing to herself, with no idea that her story insults the intellegence of the minority of NPR listeners who have . Maybe it's incompetance from the press that gets under my skin. There's little reason to expect anything more.

Mayweather is considered a polarizing figure in boxing, who fans either love or hate. I am a Pacquiao fan by accident of marriage, just as my wife is a Pacquiao fan by accident of birth. I don't hate Floyd, but I do love blood. Go Sugar.

Gotta go watch the Kentucky Derby...and get on a computer where I can see if Cavs-Celtics is worth betting tonight. Not a big fan of betting injuries, so LeBron's elbow could keep me from that one anyway. Are the Celtics capable of taking advantage of this injury if it only slows James down for a game or two? What about 3? Usually a team will play above expectations the first game after an injury. This would make the Cavs the play, but it's hard to say that without seeing the line.

So far I'm 18-6-1 betting the NBA playoffs, which is pretty sick, any way you cut it, even though I'm generally just betting teams to bounce back, along with betting home teams. It may not be brain surgery, but you try winning 75% of your bets. Good fucking luck.


*Infamous not for waterboarding, but for whiskyboarding and ginboarding its patrons. Just kidding. Isn't anything connected to Guantanamo Bay inherently infamous these days?