Go Hook Yourself

I have a double tease on KANSAS(-2.5)over texas, OVER 139.5, and KANSAS(-2.5)over texas, UNDER 148.5. I don't necessarily trust Kansas to cover seven points, but I think the 'Horns are fakers who won't be able to keep it within three points. I have also bet minnesota(+2)over MICHIGAN. This is exactly the kind of game I target, except that Michigan sucks, and I can't figure out what they've done to be favored over a 14-4 team.

Sports Guy does Dallas

Texas is big enough that it makes more sense to measure distance not in miles, but in hours of driving. Dallas is a three hour drive from Fort Hood. If you don't think that's a long way to go for a book signing, you have three hours to change your mind. More if you hit rush hour.

This didn't deter Staff Sgt. Joel Gibson from attending the final stop of The Sports Guy's promotion of the soft-cover edition of "The Book of Basketball," which had hit New York, Washington D.C. and San Francisco before ending in Dallas. While Joel's dedication to his favorite sports writer is impressive, it pales next to his wife's perseverence.

She tagged along on his Quixotic quest despite not completely understanding what she was getting herself into. Joel is originally from East Bridgewater, Massachusets, and Bill Simmons started his writing career on AOL as "The Boston Sports Guy," before ESPN hired him in 2001, so she understood how his Red Sox, Celtic and Pats-centric view of sports would appeal to her like-minded hubby. She put her own twist on the distance traveled. "A Boston sports writer signing books in Dallas? At least the line will be short."

While Simmons hardly shies away from a pro-Boston slant in his columns and books, his appeal extends at least to the four corners of this tour. 500+ snaked their way through the Dallas Borders' bookstore, while about 850 turned out in D.C. After his previous tour to promote the hardcover version of his book, Simmons remarked that his hand had morphed into a claw. This time? Not so bad. "The last time was worse, because I did like, nine signings in twelve days--that was stupid. I think four...four in five nights is about the most you'd want to do."

While the turnout wasn't daunting for the Sports Guy's claw, er...hand, the couple had a long line in front of them after the longer drive. Joel expected this, and his wife got the picture before she saw the line. "The parking lot was full. We parked about three lots away."

I give up...

A week and a half into the playoffs I'm 2-4, with my only correct picks being both Packer games. Since the line moved enough to tempt me into a middle with Atlanta(-1), my money results are even more dismal than my picks. Follow me the rest of the way if you must, but be aware that I have pretty much lost hope and am mailing it in, as they say.

Having said that, the Pats line, which opened around -8.5, has moved to 10, so it is time for me to take the Jets. nyjets(+10)over NEWENGLAND. Am I aware that this pick could turn against me? Of course I am. Most of my picks have already done so.

If you're looking for somebody you trust to lay ten points with, the Pats are probably your team. I guess I'm taking CHICAGO(-10)over seattle trusting Soldier field to do a nice chunk of the dirty work. Not that Seattle can't play in the cold. Last week's upset of the champion Saints was in a blustery 40 degrees Farenheit or so. But the Seahawks are moving from the best home field advantage in the NFL in their favor, to one of the most hostile crowds going against them.

I am curious if it might be a disadvantage for the Bears playing on Sunday, now that they can look past the Seahawks to the hated Packers. According to all the Week 17 hype, the Packers are to Lovie Smith's Bears as a red flag is to a bull. The Bull almost always ends up skewerd. Will this one get stuck by Green Bay, or by the visiting Seahawks?

Incidentally, these picks put me opposite Bill Simmons across the board this week. I don't think this has ever happened before. More often than not I agree with the Sports Guy, and this year he actually cashed in the Hilton Supercontest. On the other hand, he faded Green Bay, who I thought was the only obvious pick this week. Perhaps the Packers are his blind spot. If so, I'm probably fucked again today.

Steelers Yellow?

Until today, the only bet I had on the divisional round was greenbay(+3)over ATLANTA. I had the Falcons when they played during the regular season, but the Packers have improved their running game, and that, along with the rather vanilla Atlanta offense, is why I like the Pack.

On the other hand, as of this morning bodog had moved their line to ATL(-1.5). While I like the Packers to win, this line forced me to consider a middle. When I checked this afternoon, the line was down to ATL(-1), so I took my middle. ATLANTA(-1)over greenbay.

Baltimore-Pittsburgh is underway, and I have baltimore(+3)over PITTSBURGH. Given the recent history of tight games, I don't see how you can feel good giving up 3 points. If I didn't make a point of betting all the playoff games I would stay away from this one.

I've done a sweetheart tease of baltimore(+9.5), CHICAGO(-3.5), and NEWENGLAND(-2.5). I've never done one of these before, but those big lines in the Sunday games seem to be begging for this sort of action.

Pittsburgh is about to score. Maybe this is the time these teams finally have a blowout. The Steelers could ruin my tease before the Sunday games ever get started.

Hmmm. Baltimore leads on a fumble that everyone on the field let sit on the ground for several beats before Cory Redding carried it 12 yards for a score. My bets on the Ravens suddenly look good, while my bet on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl may be in jeopardy.

I havent' bet them yet, but I'm leaning Jets(+9), and Bears(-10).

Steelers are now down 21-7 at halftime. I see alot of yellow seats, but presumably these are from fans grabbing a beer or standing in line for the pisser.

Three and a half minutes into the second half, and fewer yellow seats are evident. If the Steelers have fair weather fans we haven't seen proof of it...yet.

Pittsburgh scored on a Roethlisberger pass to Heath Miller, after a fumble from Ray Rice. The crowd has been going completely mad, as if to prove I had nothing to worry about. Now all they need to do is win by two, and all of my bets will be in play.

Aint likely, but...

It's almost game time. 11 is probably too high a number, with the Saints on the road with no running game to speak of, and what not. Outdoors in the cold with one of the NFL's loudest crowds. On the other hand, we're talking about a 12-4 team vs. a 7-9 team, and I really want to root for a ritual slaughter.

That's why I teased this one down to neworleans(-4)over SEATTLE, UNDER 53. That's why I am now confident that the Saints will win by about 37-20, just so my teaser doesn't work out.

I'd already bet the rest of the games. I already took KANSAS CITY(+3)over baltimore, and now that the line has moved, I've got KANSAS CITY(+3.5)over baltimore as well. I don't feel good about it though. I keep hearing that Dwayne Bowe is banged up, and that half the team has the flu.

The only pick I really feel good about is green bay(+3)over PHILADELPHIA. I bet the Packers because I thought they had a good enough pass rush to give Michael Vick problems. Apparently Vick isn't completely healthy either, making this pick look even stronger.

Meanwhile, Seattle has jumped out to a 31-20 lead early in the third quarter. There's still alot of time left, but there is no way my bet can win--not with the under, or even the teased under.

Seattle kicked another FG--34-20. 5 minutes left in the third quarter. This upset in the making gives all the other dogs hope. The Chiefs because their fans are even louder, the Jets because the Saints and Colts are both teams that aren't nearly as good this year as last. Right now I feel like at least one more underdog is advancing. The sad part is that if that team is the Jets I could go 0-4 for the week.

During halftime NBC continued to hype the supposed Peyton Manning-Rex Ryan rivalry, interviewing Manning at halftime. When my wife asked me who they were talking about, I said,
"Rex Ryan."
"Who's he?"
"The guy with the foot fetish."
"Oh, okay."
Maybe this will be his legacy. Sort of like Bill Clinton's cigar. Or W's premature mission accomplishment. Or Barak's Indonesian birth certificate. Will a win over the Colts this weekend make him more famous than his wife's cute feet? How about a Super Bowl win?

The Saints have scored, and trail by only 7. They are in this game, even if winning by 11 is off the table.

I may have to Gig myself after this one

I've bet Texas A&M(+3)over LSU, after waiting over a week for the line to move from
A&M(+1). A Chad Millman column in late December predicted this line move, and it would appear the sharps waited as well, as I paid (-115) 45 minutes ago, and now the Ags cost (-120).

They are dragging out the pregame, and just introduced Jim Brown, who lost to TCU 54 years ago in the Cotton Bowl along with his Syracuse Orangemen. Meanwhile, A&M is up to
(-125).

A&M has scored, on about a 30 yard drive after a 69 yard kick return. 7-0. I have also gone for two parlays--Texas A&M(+105),over 49, paying 3/1, and LSU(-3),under 49, paying 2.83/1. On covers.com everyone seems to like the under, even if they're on the Aggies, but I think A&M needs the game to be a shootout.

Maybe the people on the under are thinking of A&M's 9-6 win over Nebraska. The Aggies now lead 10-0, with along drive after a pick they ran into their own end zone before coming back out to the two yard line. A&M showed they can run on LSU on that drive. That could help keep the score down as well. At this rate I may manage to lose both of my parlays. My Aggie parlay was with the moneyline rather than A&M(+3), so I could also lose that one if the score goes over but LSU wins by one or two, scenarios that I would win if I'd parlayed them with the pointspread.

LSU has answered with two scores, and are up 14-10. LSU and the over looks pretty good right now. I've been checking the line history at other sites, and it looks like bodog is one of the only sites that went to LSU(-3). Many sites moved up to LSU(-2.5), then pulled back to 1 or 2. If LSU is the public team, you could argue that bodog is the most public site out there. Covers.com's line history data is not completely accurate, however. Here is their bodog action, if I can cut and paste it successfully...A&M is up 17-14, but LSU is threatening again.


Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
12/09/10 11:14:55 AM -1/-110 (Open) OFF
12/09/10 11:14:56 AM -1/-110 49 -110 (Open)
12/15/10 4:54:53 PM -1/-110 49u -115
12/27/10 11:54:54 AM -1/-110 49 -110
01/01/11 6:24:54 AM -1/-115 49 -110
01/04/11 12:04:53 AM -1.5/-110 49 -110
01/05/11 4:34:54 PM -2/-110 49 -110
01/06/11 6:04:54 PM -2/-115 49 -110
01/07/11 9:34:54 AM -3/105 49 -110
01/07/11 10:54:53 AM -3/105 49o -115
01/07/11 11:54:53 AM -3/100 49o -115
01/07/11 2:34:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 6:24:54 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:14:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 7:24:53 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:54:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 8:04:53 PM -3/-105 49 -110
01/07/11 8:24:53 PM -3/-105 49u -115

Blogger has compressed this history so it is barely readable. In any case, on their history the LSU(-3) price since 9:34 this morning is at -105, other than when it moved to -110 at 6:24 pm, and 7:24 pm. When I parlayed LSU at 8:09 LSU(-3)was (+105), so the vig moved a couple of ticks beyond what covers has. Makes me wonder how they get their history.

It's halftime, and LSU leads 28-17. No way in hell this goes under. If A&M doesn't catch up I will lose all three bets.

Woooooooo Hog Sooooooooeeeeeee!(?)

I bet Ohio State(-3)over Arkansas yesterday, and the Buckeyes got up 28-7 in the first half, before ultimately winning a nail-biter, 31-26. I remain shit-hot, barely. I also took

green bay(+3)over PHILADELPHIA. I may bet this again, taking the Pack again if the line moves to 3.5 or more, but taking the Eagles if the line gets back to 2.5. Money has been pouring in on the Pack since the line went to 3, and since I have Green Bay(-130) I expect the inflated vig may negate the value of any middle I go after. Ideally the Eagles win by one or two, keeping my bet on them to win the Super Bowl alive. I think Green Bay has the kind of front 4 that can give Vick problems.

On the other hand, I was all over the Pack on the road last year at Arizona, and look how that turned out.

Discover Orange Degeneracy

I just bet Stanford(-4)over Virginia Tech, seconds before the kickoff. Am I a degenerate? If

Va Tech's defense is half as good as it has been in the past, the Hokies seem like the smarter bet.

Of course, I'm saying this as Andrew Luck throws one in the dirt on 3rd and 8.

The second Stanford drive ended around midfield with a failed fake punt--a short snap and a run up the middle that got stuffed. Next drive Stanford drove 86 yards, the last 60 on a run off left tackle.

Stanford leads 13-12 at the half, courtesy of a safety, a botched extra point, and a crappy prevent defense that allowed VTech to get a late FG. If I lose this pick because of that extra point, I'll be pissed.

I've started betting the first round of the NFL playoffs. Last night I guessed the lines. Here's what I came up with.

neworleans(-10) SEATTLE

INDIANAPOLIS(-4) nyjets

baltimore(-1) KANSASCITY

PHILADELPHIA(-3) greenbay

and the actual lines?

neworleans(-10.5)

INDY(-3)

balt(-3)

PHILY(-2.5)

The Saints are now favored by 11. This line may keep going up. Indy is lower than I expected. I think this line moves up, though the early money is on the Jets. I think the Oakland game colored the perception of the Ravens, and I've seen a sharp book where the line agreed with me.

I thought GB-Phily would be on a big number, to keep the line from passing a big number. Bodog has moved to 3, and $$ is pouring in on the Packers. Maybe some book that has the line at (-2.5) is getting crazy action the other way.

I was almost sold on giving the points with the Ravens, who have the kind of defense that could shut down the Chiefs. Then I remembered the Raven offense, which hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Give me points and the home team. KANSASCITY(+3)over baltimore. This is a battle of teams with my fantasy RBs. Last year I took Ray Rice in the 6th round, and got Jamaal Charles off waivers. This year I took Charles in the second round...and won my league.

The Colts seem to be a shadow of last year's team. Have the Jets figured out how to beat them? They could pull off the upset the way the Chargers did two years ago, but I'm not going against Manning. Not this week anyway. Not against Mark Sanchez. Though if the line moves to 4.5 or 5, I may bet it the other way. For now, INDY(-3)over nyjets.

Stanford won, 40-12. I am shit hot.

I'm taking Ohio State(-3)over Arkansas now, before the line moves. Coulda gave only 3.5 with Stanford, but I waited too long. $$ is leaning the Buckeyes way. Gotta like a team who trades memorabilia for skin ink, then gets suspended for next year. Any time the NCAA bends their own rules, so you can play and be a cash cow, you gotta like those odds. Those tattoos will sting alot less in the offseason with a Sugar Bowl win.

Have I mentioned that I am shit hot?

Last Sunday

I'd like to thank my fantasy opponent for reminding me that the Jags are without MJD and David Garrard this week. He's starting Trent Edwards this week. Remind me to invite more Jacksonville natives into my league next year. HOUSTON(-3)over jacksonville. Now we just need to wait to see how the Texans will blow this one.

I've taken stlouis(-3)over SEATTLE. Sam Bradford has some wins on the road this year, and the Seahawks are starting some cat named Whitehurst at QB. They also aren't big on stopping the run; troublesome with Steven Jackson looming. My consolation if I'm wrong will be the chance to mock the first 7-9 playoff team in NFL history.

Not crazy about giving points on the road, but Big Ben has owned the Browns, and the Steelers are trying to lock up the 2 seed, unlike the Bears. pittsburgh(-6)over CLEVELAND.

Oklahoma(-15.5)over UConn came through for me, 48-20, as did

Wisconsin(+3)over TCU, barely, as the Badgers lost by two, 21-19. I'm on a nice roll right now.

Pittsburgh romped, 41-9. Houston-Jax was tied a couple of times, but eventually the Texans prevailed, 34-17.

Matt Hasselbeck has been warming up. Apparently he's not starting, but he is able to play. Had I known that, I probably wouldn't have laid three points with the Rams.

The Seahawks won, 16-6. If you knew Charlie Whitehurst wasn't going to suck this week, the Seahawks were the obvious play. Apparently he amassed alot of evidence to the contrary last week.

The fact that Hasselbeck even warmed up was a bad sign. At that point, you knew Pete Carroll had enough confidence to play Whitehurst even though Matty Bald was ready to go...or that there would be enough time for him to undo any damage from Chucky Dub.

New Year not happy for Big 10

$$ has poured in on Michigan State, who have moved from a 10 point dog to a 8.5 point dog, and on Uconn, who have dropped from a 17 point dog down to 15. The perception is that Alabama and Oklahoma don't care enough to show up for relatively minor bowl games. Right now 'Bama is driving, and the Tide crowd is making a bunch of noise...State hasn't had the ball yet. We'll see if they can move the ball against an SEC defense. If not "Bama probably covers.

Oklahoma is a whole two years removed from their BCS Championship game vs. Florida, and they are in a BCS bowl game, but this is a pretty lame matchup. What is their motivation? To silence the smirks of Chokelahoma? Beating UConn won't help, because UConn sucks. That's the perception anyway. UConn lost to Michigan, which makes me think it's more than a perception, though they may have improved since then.

The Big Ten has been going down like the Hindenburg all day. Northwestern lost to Texas Tech, 45-38. Respectable, unlike Michigan State and Michigan, who were crushed, 49-7 by Alabama, and 52-14 to Mississippi State respectively. Penn State made a game of it, but ultimately fell to Florida, 37-24, and Wisconsin lost to TCU, 21-19.

The only consolations, for me at least, are that I had Wisconsin(+3)over TCU, so Wisconsin covered, and that Rich Rodriguez will probably get fired. Go Green.

I went ahead and took Oklahoma(-15.5)over UConn, not so much a bet against UConn as a bet against somebody who managed to lose to Michigan. Right now OU is up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. Hopefully they get up about 35-0 before their supposed lack of motivation kicks in. I could have had Okla(-15) earlier, or I could have paid vig for that, but 15 to 15.5 isn't a big half point. On the other hand, I would have paid to drop from 14.5 to 14. In fact, the reason I didn't bet this sooner was because I was hoping the line would drop to 14.

Bodog's line moved back to 16 before game time.

Ugh. UConn just got a pick 6. I wonder if the Sooners are about to find a way to blow this game.

I haven't found any pro games I like for this weekend. Maybe HOUSTON(-3)over jacksonville. Like the Texans haven't burned me enough already.

20-10 at the half. I just realized Matt Millen is one of the announcers. If the Sooners don't cover I'm blaming him. I'm a Lions fan. It's what we do.