Trojans won't stop 'Cats

I love betting lesser home college hoop teams against superior visiting teams when there is a tight spread. On the other hand, the only team in the West getting any respect this year seems to be Arizona. arizona(pick)over USC.

It's about a half hour to game time, and now 'Zona is favored by one. Do I feel good about this? I got a better price, but this confirms my view that the books knew the public would fade SC. Does this mean SC is the side? I expect to be asleep before this one is over. Fuck the West Coast.

In another game I was considering, but was scared to pull the trigger, West Virginia(+8.5) is hanging with Pittsburgh...or was. It was 31 all a minute ago, but Pitt has opened up a 37-31 lead. If this is where the game gets away from the Mountaineers I'll be glad I stayed away.

Pitt won, 71-58. There you go. Last I checked, Arizona was up, 52-50. A little too close for my taste.

USC won, 65-57. This is why I like these home teams. I really thought Arizona would have them outmatched, though.

I take over on KU-OKState

I've taken OVER 145 for Kansas-Oklahoma State, a game which has a 17 point line. I don't think I've screwed around with a line that high this year. Not in hoops at least. I've reviewed the scores of the two teams' last five games, and see no reason why the total isn't higher for this game. I haven't kept up with OKState much this year, but last year they were noteworthy for some sick scorer, and for neglecting defense. Whats-his name has probably gone pro at this point, but their defensive liability most likely remains, though their totals are not as high as Kansas.'

I'm watching 'Cuse at 'Nova right now. 'Nova is favored by 3.5, but trails by five right now, 43-38. Villanova is ranked higher at the moment, but 3.5 feels about right, given our collective memory of Syracuse the last couple of years. Villanova plays it's home games at the Wells Fargo Center, an arena built in 1996 that was named the First Union and Wachovia Center until the Real Estate Crisis of 2008 caused these banks to be swallowed up by Wells Fargo. I guessed that something along these lines happened before Wikipedia-ing the Center and finding out for myself.

The Wikipedia page claims that there are two other arenas named after Wells Fargo, in Tempe and Des Moines, but on my way to this page I found a list of Wells Fargo Centers that also included Denver, LA, Miami, Minneapolis, Portland Oregon, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Tampa, as well as a Wells Fargo Center for the arts in Santa Rosa, California.

The Tampa and Portland Centers used to be named for First Union as well. Perhaps they still would be, but First Union was taken over by Wachovia in 2001,before Wachovia took it upon themselves to underwrite enough bad home loans to put themselves out of business.

I don't recall Wachovia buying First Union in 2001, but I remember Wachovia's demise in 2008. I was in Florida with Pennsyltucky Dave, and remember talking shit because the bank that held my mortgage was taking over the bank he had an account with. Trust Americans to boil mergers and acquisitions down to provincial rooting interests, as if Wachovia and Wells Fargo were the Eagles and 49ers. Wachovia's roots are not in Pennsylvania, but in North Carolina, but Dave & I were oblivious to this at the time. I still was until a bit into the second half, when I read Wells Fargo Center on Villanova's floor. I finished Matt Taibbi's Griftopia earlier today, which mentions the above banks in conjunction with the '08 real estate bubble collapse.

Syracuse held on to beat Villanova, a team Pennsyltucky Dave tends to root for

a.) because they are a school in Philadelphia

b.) they are generally successful in hoops, and

c.) Penn State sucks at hoops. Not that this has prevented them from beating Michigan State this year.

Taibbi describes his book as less about finance, and more of a crime story, making it a nice lead in for the Dennis Lehane books that came in the mail today. Hopefully the US Economy won't shrivel up and disappear in A Drink Before the War. Not that this will bring it back or anything.

Kansas leads 17-14, six minutes in. Without doing the math, I like my chances.

After doing the math, this works out to 206 points. I imagine it will slow down sometime in the next 34 minutes. I gotta pee.

I peed. And ran five miles. Kansas won 92-65, beating the OVER by 12 points. Yay.

K-KSt ^ 145

I've taken OVER 145 for Kansas at Kansas State. This total opened at 147.5, according to covers.com, and at game time anything from 144 to 146 can be found. After the game I'm going streaking through the quad. Who's coming with me???

KState won, but more importantly, they won 84-68. OVER. WORD.

Iowa Sucks, I fear getting burned

I've taken minnesota(-1)over IOWA. Total opposite of the kind of bet I look for, but I am steadfast in my belief that the Hawkeyes SUCK.

Considered taking BOSTON(+3)over miami, but I've been so weak on NBA games that I shyed away. This game opened at Boston(+1) and Heat $$ pushed it to 3... Similarly, Iowa opened at (-1), but bodog waited to put up a number, so I got stuck with the Gophers(-1).

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Minnesota won, 62-45. Before game time, the line moved to minnesota(-2). I guess I wasn't alone. If you're keeping track, I titled this post before the game. Not because I knew Iowa would get killed, but because I know they suck. And yes, I'm aware they beat Michigan State a couple of weeks ago. We suck too. Tom Izzo may need to try to win the Big 10 Tournament this year. That could be our only way in to the dance.

Badgers game goes OVER

I'm pretty much a one-trick pony when it comes to betting college hoops (and pro-hoops, for that matter), and while that trick hasn't served me well this year, I'm giving it a shot today.

Now that football is done, what choice do I have?

CLEMSON(-1)over north carolina, VANDERBILT(-1)over kentucky. That trick, of course, is betting the unranked or lower ranked home favorite over the higher ranked road dog. The interesting thing about these games (for me, at least) is that both of these lines moved after I bet them. Clemson closed favored by 1.5, while the other line flipped to kentucky(-1). I've tripled up on Vandy, with two units of VANDERBILT(+1)over kentucky.

Kentucky jumped out to a lead of 17-11 or so, whereupon I proceeded to take a massive dump. When I returned, Vandy was down one, and right now they are up 38-35 with 3 to go in the first half. Apparently if I'd taken a massive dump during the Super Bowl Pittsburgh would have won. Right now UNC leads Clemson, 24-20.

I've parlayed WISCONSIN(-1)over ohio state, UNDER 125. While Wisconsin is always deliberate on offense, leading to some really low scores, I expect them to try even harder to shorten the game against the unbeaten, top ranked Buckeyes. If the Badgers are successful,I expect them to impose their will enough to keep the score down.

While the line for this game did not move in the hour or so leading up to game time, the vig moved slightly, making a parlay paying 2.5/1 pay 2.58/1. I also paid a little extra to move the line from 1.5 to 1. WIS(-1.5)/UNDER 125 paid 2.6/1.

Right now Wisconsin leads, 12-6, and my concern is that the game could go over, since it turns out that the Badgers have a shit-hot 3 point shooter who I was previously unaware of. Not only can he drain 3s, they don't seem to mind if he takes one at the front end...

9:19 to go in the first, and it's 13-11, Wisconsin. Bad for the Badgers, good for the UNDER.

I took BOSTON(-2)over lalakers Thursday night. I'm not sure if Laker desperation in not beating anyone good all season was factored in, or if LA just gets more action, but I thought 3, 3.5 made more sense. The Lakers won by 6, and it wasn't that close. Shows what I know.

UNC has held on to beat Clemson, 64-62. Vandy beat Kentucky, 81-77, enough to put me up for the day, despite OSU taking over with a 13 point lead with 12 minutes to play, and enough points to make the over likely if Wisconsin finds a way to come back. I'll take it.

Wisconsin has scored 13 straight, knotting it at 47 all. Holy shit.

49-49, and the scoring has slowed just enough to give the under a chance.

60-55 Wisconsin, 4:17 left. This looks like it's going over. 62-55. There's no way these teams don't get 9 more points.

Wisconsin won, but it went over. Lets see if I can refrain from blowing my modest winnings later on today.

False Slim Shady stands up

Covers.com apparently got hoodwinked by some cat claiming to be Fezzik. They did a story on him, then published a retraction today. Here are both:

LAS VEGAS – Since you are reading this story, the chances are just about 100 percent that you would chuck it all and trade places with Steve Fezzik.

With a bankroll heavy with hundred dollar bills, the energy of a 17-year-old boy on prom night and knowledge of sports and wagering that only a few in this business will ever realize, Fezzik prowls the Las Vegas sportsbooks and offshores for bargains.

Some days it’s less and some days it’s more, but Fezzik estimates that he wagers about $60,000 a day. The event is irrelevant – it can be anything from an obscure Arena League game to the Super Bowl. Money is money, and as long as more comes in than goes out, what’s the dif?

Fezzik says that he wagers a lot of his own money, plus money pooled from a group of betting partners. His bankroll has been given two huge shots of adrenaline over the past two years. He won the Las Vegas Hilton NFL Supercontest twice in a row, which bumped his savings account up by more than $406,000. Picking ATS, Fezzik hit on 61 percent of his selections (going 52-29-3) in 2010. Not quite the same as hitting Power Ball twice in the same year, but making hundreds of other bettors eat your dust is great for the ego.

Like some others in Las Vegas, Fezzik didn’t start out in school thinking that he would put food on the table by trying to outsmart oddsmakers. He grew up in Ohio, graduated from Northwestern University and made a living crunching numbers for an insurance company before experiencing his what-the-hell-am-I-doing-here moment. Next stop was Las Vegas.

Like most sharps, Fezzik’s daily meals include well-cooked squares. Four years ago the public hammered No. 1 seed Connecticut hard when the Huskies were giving eight points to unheralded George Mason in their NCAA Tournament game. Fezzik opened up his wallet, went the other way and cashed when George Mason – clearly on a once-in-two-lifetimes run at the time – won the game outright in overtime. Connecticut, he said to a reporter at the time, was a “classic donkey play” and the smart money was on the other side.

Despite his startling success in the Hilton ATS contest, Fezzik claims that he doesn’t spend much time analyzing the strengths and weaknesses on teams, preferring to utilize his time trying to find errors in the betting line or totals. Most bettors overlook second-half wagering. Not Fezzik.

And unlike some pro gamblers, Fezzik doesn’t turn up his nose at prop bets that dot the betting landscape during Super Bowl week. He recalls a big payout in 2003, cashing on a prop which said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would punt more times than the Oakland Raiders (they each punted five times).

With the biggest betting day of the year on the horizon, Covers.com asked Fezzik several questions about his business:

1. You bet on different sports. How do you keep track? How many hours a day do to study/crunch numbers?

It can be difficult, but with websites like Covers.com, a lot of the work is already done for you. I'm looking at lines and researching numbers all day long. I do this 24/7, so there is rarely a time I stop crunching numbers. I'd say realistically 14 hours a day.

2. Best one-week run ever? Worst?

I've had some really great weeks and some not-so-good ones, but just recently started tracking my plays. I had a great week last week (early January) going 17-6 but couldn't even tell you my best week ever. Numbers never meant much because the bottom line is always did I make a profit or did I not. If I go 20-0 one week - great. But the next week, that means nothing to me.

3. Do you ever watch the games?

I watch a lot of football games and catch most other sports in the second half. Usually when games start to tip off for the day I start working on next day's games. I don't get a lot of sleep.

4. Is it easier or harder now than when you started betting for a living?

Things today are a lot easier than when I first started. There is a lot more accessible gambling information out there and, with sports betting gaining more popularity every year, things are bound to just get easier. Online sportsbooks have revolutionized the industry as to where now I can place a last-second wager online without having to worry if I can get to the casino in 15 minutes.

5. What is the hardest sport to win at? Easiest? Why?

Hands down I'd have to say baseball is the hardest. As the saying goes, anyone can win "Any Given Sunday" and I find this more true in baseball than any other sport. Baseball is all about value. You will always see big lines on big market teams (Yankees, Red Sox, etc..) because the linesmakers know a lot of squares will take -300, -250 favorites all day. I know a lot of guys who lose their bankrolls in baseball every year. I find football to be the easiest and it's where I've had most my success. I'd say it's the easiest for me because it is my favorite sport.

6. Opinion of in-game betting?

I'm not big into in-game betting. It's a fun thing to do while watching the game but it's hard to win long term doing it. It's more for the casual gambler, just another way for the sportsbook to take your money.

7. Worst beat?

What sticks out recently would be Colts-Titans first game this year. Had Colts -3 and they dominated most the game. The Colts gave up a touchdown as the clock expired and the Colts ended up winning by two.

8. What kind of mistakes do squares often make?

The advice I give to a lot of people is to not base your opinion on what teams did years past. I'll hear things like “The Celtics are 7-0 against them the past seven years.” Trends like this have nothing to do with the game on this day eight years later. Do your research and use good money management and you should be on the plus side more often than not.

Steve Fezzik’s web site is SteveFezzik.com

The only comments on the article are from two guys saying this Fezzik is a fraud. Apparenly they are right.

Covers.com recently published an interview with Las Vegas sports betting legend Steve Fezzik. It was brought to our attention that the person claiming to be Steve Fezzik was not the handicapper but an impostor, who runs a website that poaches Fezzik’s name in an effort to sell betting picks.

Covers.com would like to sincerely apologize to Mr. Fezzik and the staff at LVASports.com as well as our readers for this mistake.

Mr. Fezzik will be doing a real interview, which will be published in the coming weeks. Covers.com will also be putting out a feature exposing these tout websites that fraudulently claim to have a connection to a notable sports bettor or industry personality.

LVASports.com is the only website with a legit affiliation to Mr. Fezzik.

I'm about to check out these sites. Not sure how to change my font back.