I tease Giants & Pats...& hedge Pats

Not feeling the love from Vegas this week.  No lines I particularly care for.  You might think I'd take a week off.  Hell, I might even think I'd take a week off.  But no.  I looked for games to tease instead.

I was torn between teasing NE(-8.5)over tb and nyg(pick)over CAR on 5dimes, or teasing NE(-7)over tb and nyg(-2)over CAR on bovada.  My decision was made for me, when bovada wouldn't let me tease those games.  I've been calling bovada cowards for years.  Nothing's changed.

NEWENGLAND(-2.5)over tampabay, nygiants(+6)over CAROLINA.  Now I have one more reason to hope Gronk plays, the other being my three-time champ fantasy football team The 'Ol Yogurt Slinger.

The more I look at it, the more it hits home how pathetic the Pats offense has been--not to mention the Bucs offense...I think Josh Freeman had nine completions last week.

That's why I also parlayed Tampa(+8.5), UNDER 44.5.  It only pays 2.2 or so to 1, so I'm probably not getting much value here, but I want to bet against these offenses.  They offend me.

Mayweather augments my account

I bet heavy on Mayweather to beat Alvarez, and he didn't disappoint, winning decisively in everyone's eyes except for one of the judges, who called it a draw.  This judge was one of the two judges who called Bradley-Pacquaio for Bradley.  Not sure how the broad keeps her job.  Maybe it's affirmative action.  Maybe judging boxing is like being on the supreme court.  If so she may want to hire some bodyguards. 

After all, she turned out to be a bigger threat to my $$ than Canelo Alvarez.

Meanwhile, I have a bunch of token bets on football.  Yesterday I pushed with
Louisville(-14)overKENTUCKY, as the 'Cats came back to lose, 27-13, and lost with
bostoncollege(+14)overSOUTHERNCAL, as the Trojans ate BC's lunch, 35-7.

Meanwhile, I have INDIANAPOLIS(-1)over miami.  I was going to try for a middle, with Miami(+3), but the vig was wicked high.  Too bad, because at this point I am banking on the Andrew Luck magic and home field to keep the Colts n contention against a Dolphin team that looks like a wild card team right now, and leads 14-3.

I have sandiego(+9)over PHILADELPHIA.  I know the Chargers suck, and are playing at 10 in the morning West Coast time, and Chip Kelley is the second coming, but nine points is ridiculous for a team who has trouble holding a lead.  On the other hand, San Diego is up 10-3 right now, so maybe the Eagles won't have to worry about holding a lead.  The Chargers apparently can't hold a lead either, but I only need them to lose by eight or less.

I have BUFFALO(+3.5)overcarolina.  I know the AFC sucks, but I don't see why Carolina gives points on the road.  Buffalo almost beat the Pats after all, though...the Jets almost did too.  Not crazy about my bet on the Pats to win the East at 1/3 right now.

I have NYGIANTS(+4.5)overdenver.  If Denver can overcome these inflated spreads we are going to see a bubble like 2008--and it will POP...sooner or later.

I have SEATTLE(-1)oversanfrancisco--one point looks like another overreaction to last week.  I guess if Seattle was going to lose one at home, this would be the one...didn't happen last year though.

Miami held off the Colts and their luck, and still look like a wild card, or better if the Pats don't get their shit together.

San Diego won outright, 33-30.  E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!!!  Some bubbles pop sooner than others.

Buffalo did what the Colts couldn't, and pulled out a last second victory, 24-23, and I am 2-1 on the early games.

Meanwhile, I have bets on Detroit to win the Super Bowl at 33-1, and the NY Giants to win the Super Bowl at 33-1.  At the moment NY leads Denver, 3-0.  Detroit is a homer pick, but I think there is value to be had on the Giants.  It's a little early to give up on them, no?

Sunday night.

My NFL bets went 0-3, as I had baltimore(+7.5), newengland(-10) and tampabay(-3).  Only New England managed to win their game, though for a bit it looked like both they and the Bucs would win but fail to cover.

Whatever.  I won my over on Broncos-Ravens, but this, like those above, was a token bet.  I have considerably more riding on New England winning the East at 1/3, Denver winning the West at 1/3, Louisville winning their conference, whatever it's called, at -275.  For comparison, 1/3 would be -300, so the odds are slightly shorter with the Cards.  If they manage to tie with one of the other teams, the winner is whoever is higher in the BCS poll.  I don't see how anybody passes them in the polls unless they lose at least twice.

Similarly, I don't think Mayweather loses by decision.  He will need to get knocked out.  I have him at -275 in his fight next week.  Tie goes to Floyd, and tie goes to the 'Ville.

After their Thursday night murder, Denver's odds shifted to 1/5, or -500.  I wonder if barely beating Buffalo will move the Pats division odds up or down.

Thursday Night

I have some $$ on baltimore(+7.5)overDENVER, and some more on that game OVER 48.  Right now they have a rain delay going on (severe thunderstorm warning, rather--this isn't baseball), so we'll see if the weather keeps the score down.

You probably don't need any advice for this opening game.  You can find spreads anywhere from seven to 9.5, and everybody seems to think that either Denver will be out for revenge and will run up the score, or that there is no way in hell the Ravens should be more than a 4 or 5 point dog.  I guess I'm closer to the later camp.

What else?  I have newengland(-10)overBUFFALO.  I think the Bills QB is somebody named Tool, or Toole, or somebody.  How are they going to keep this close?

I have tampabay(-3)overNYJETS.  I'm not sure the Bucs should be favored over anybody by 3 on the road, but man, those Jets are a fucking mess.  I wanted to bet this game last month, back when it was still bucs(-1), but my sites weren't carrying it.

I have Denver to win the AFC West at 1/3, and New England to win the East at 1/3.  Yesterday I looked into parlaying these two, and found 7/9, but today, once I deposited some $$ on a site that carried it, I found that the site wouldn't let me parlay these two bets.  Not sure what is going on there, but I will probably try again.


Baltimore is 5 minutes away from losing and failing to cover, but between them the two teams have put up 69 points, so it looks like I'm neutral for the night.