NFL Week 8 picks & Week 7 recap

 So what happened last week? San Diego  failed to cover at Kansas City, losing 31-17. My first half bet on the Eagles covered, and they also covered for the game, beating Miami, also by a 31-17 score. At the tail end of the 1:00 games I was under the impression that I was going 6-0 in my UNDER double-teases, until I remembered that for that to happen the games actually needed to be within 6 points of the original point spread, not just below the teased under. I actually went 4-2, highlighted by Atlanta's 16-10 win over Tampa Bay. The Giants and Bears won by too much to let the Raiders & Redskins  sides of my parlays cover.

This week? I've waited to bet until Friday night, perhaps to my detriment, as I think I could have gotten houston(-3), but am now settling for houston(-3.5)over CAROLINA. Both of these teams are coming off their byes, and I expect the better coached team to come into this game better prepared. This game also has a little juice as it features the #1 & #2 QB picks from the last draft. Regardless of the outcome of this game, so far CJ Stroud has clearly won this battle to avoid being a bust. It remains to be seen if Bryce Young can turn this around in the future. Given the rumors I've heard, Young as the first pick happened because of meddling from the Panthers new owner, David Tepper. Not the best omen for a career when your very pick is a blunder stemming from managerial incompetence, even if less egregious than the Giants drafting Daniel Jones in the top five.

Otherwise, I've made a couple more first half bets, taking PHILADELPHIA(-3.5)over washington, and jacksonville(-.5)over PITTSBURGH. The Eagles have covered in the first half seemingly for the past year and a half, and I finally bet them last week. On the flip side, the Steelers have been awful in the first half, somehow managing to get their shit together in the second half in their wins. On that note, I have PITTSBURGH(+2)over jacksonville for the game. The Steelers have been money as a home dog, and these poitions should hedge each other out pretty well if this game doesn't follow the recent script.

Watching the Saints this year has pretty much been an exercise in throwing up in my mouth, while the Colts have been kinda fun, so I took INDIANAPOLIS(+1)over new orleans. Not super satisfying as a home dog, since this is practically a pick, but it's still a home dog.

Sorta terrifying to bet on the Titans with either Malik Willis or Will Levis at the helm, but Tennessee is at home and coming off a bye, so they've had a couple weeks to get one of these guys first team reps, if they didn't split reps between both of them. This could also be a letdown spot for the Falcons after a divisional win vs Tampa Bay last week. TENNESSEE(+2.5)over atlanta.

My last bet (so far) is on Cincinnati at San Francisco. Brock Purdy is out, so this is our first chance to see if Kyle Shanahan's offensive system is so good even Sam Darnold can't fuck it up. Between Cincy's coming off a bye, relative desperation, and additional Niner injuries, I'm willing to back the Bengals. Apparently others have been backing SF, because this line has moved from 49ers(-3.5) to 49ers(-5), so I have cincinnati(+5)over SAN FRANCISCO.

 Pretty disgusting gambling week last week. From memory, I think the only things I got right were CINCINNATI(-3)over seattle (I think they won 21-17), and I took two out of three bets on Dallas at LAChargers, as I had dallas(-1.5), LACHARGERS(+2.5), and I bet the under live. As Dallas won. 20-17, I was never in much danger of the over hitting. I think I had 47.5 or 48.5.

If I was going to let my sharps talk me into the Chargers after I had originally taken Dallas, I should have also flipped from tennessee(+4) over BALTIMORE* to BALTIMORE(-4) over tennessee*, once I heard that the Ravens were travelling to London 2 or 3 days before the Titans, who were going pretty much at the last minute. I'm a big believer in jet lag, along with weather and altitude. Jet lag is real, people, and not to be taken lightly.

This week I went ahead and took lachargers(+6) over KANSAS CITY...actually I took that before the Monday Night game on a look ahead line, as I anticipated that line might drop if the Chargers beat Dallas. Their close loss must have impressed, because the line has dropped to 5.5. Given how close these teams have played each other in the Mahomes-Herbert era, I still would take the Chargers at +5.5.

Otherwise, at this point I've done three double under teasers. Unders came in heavy last week, as they have most of this season, and now we have several teams playing their backup QBs, so I expect this scoring deficit to continue. I teased the Jacksonville at New Orleans UNDER up to 46.5, bumping the paired lines to SAINTS(+4) and jaguars(+8). It looks like Trevor Lawrence is going to play, but between his sprained knee, Derek Carr's general malaise, and the Saints seeming inability to score more than 20 points, and this game seems unlikely to get to 47 points.

Likewise with Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Desmond Ritter is the punch line of a raft of jokes these days, and Baker Mayfield hasn't exactly gone wild either, even if he has outperformed our low expectations. I teased the under from 37.5 to 43.5, pairing it with atlanta (+8.5) and TAMPA B(+3.5). I haven't even gotten to the games with backups playing yet.

CHICAGO(+9), UNDER 44, and las vegas(+3), UNDER 44. Justin Fields is out. I'm not sure about Jimmy Garrapolo (sp), but he is a bum.

Tyrod Taylor vs. Sam Howell, which is to say, Washington at NY Giants(+3), o/u 37.5--this totally fits our criteria of teams we trust more to NOT score than to score. GIANTS(+9)/U 43.5, c-words(+3), U 43.5.

* London game, not a true home game for the Ravens.

Louisville over Notre Dame, Week 5 recap, Week Six pix

 My best pick last week was one I didn't bet, as Jacksonville(+5.5) upset Buffalo in London, 25-20. The rest went worse.

I also got COLTS(+2.5) over titans right, as Indy defended their home field, winning outright, 23-16. Meanwhile the PATRIOTS(+1) didn't come close to defending their home field, losing to the saints, 34-0. My double or triple teaser of Ravens at Steelers broke even, with the Steelers & the under leg hitting, & the rest missing. Steelers, 17-10.

houston(+1.5) almost came through, losing at ATLANTA, 21-19. After that the three dogs I bet in the afternoon all put up a bit of a fight, before letting the favorites pull away. I had MINNESOTA(+3.5)over kansas city, so the Vikes lost, 27-20. I had LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia, so the Rams lost, 23-14, and I had ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati, so the Cardinals lost, 34-20. I finally bounced back with LAS VEGAS(-2.5) over green bay, as the Raiders won, 17-13. That's a lot of losing, 3-6 by my count.

I didn't feel bad about losing with Arizona, as I had resolved to fade the Bengals until Joe Burrow looked right. Since he did last week, I now have taken CINCINNATI(-2.5)over seattle. The one thing that makes me reconsider a bit is that the Seahawks are coming off their bye. Yes, we now are in that part of the season where we should pay attention to byes.

I took TENNESSEE(+4) over baltimore before realizing that this Titans "home game" is actually being played in London...or perhaps Germany. I still think the line is too big, though not as no-brainer too big as if they were playing in Nashville.

I took TAMPA BAY(+3.5) over detroit. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and since when do the Lions give points on the road? Well, if you check the odds, Detroit is currently considered more likely to win the NFC Championship than Dallas, though it took the Lions hanging 40 on Carolina, while the Cowboys gave up 40 to the 49ers to make that happen. We'll see how long that lasts. If the Cowboys find a way to lose at the Chargers and fall to 3-3 it could last for a while.

Speaking of which, I have a chance at a middle, as I have taken dallas(-1.5) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, and also have taken LACHARGERS(+2.5)over dallas. My initial thought was that the Cowboys will probably be very motivated after losing my 30-something to San Francisco, and perhaps the line has moved a bit because of this loss as well. After betting it, I learned that some of the sharps I follow love the Chargers this week, as they believe Dallas will struggle to contain the Chargers passing game now that Trevon Diggs is out, and like fading Mike McCarthy vs. Chargers OC (and former Dallas OC) Kellen Moore. Come to think of it, I do too, especially when the Chargers are coming off a bye, and Moore presumably has an extra week to come up with ways to beat his former team. Is this the Kellen Moore revenge game? Maybe not, but I believe the Cowboys replaced Moore to protect Mike McCarthy, so if I'm Moore I'd like to embarrass Mike McCarthy.

I took san francisco(-6.5)over CLEVELAND. I would have gotten -5.5, but FanDuel couldn't tell that I was in a state where gambling was allowed, even though BOTH sides of the Kentucky-Indiana border now have legal sports betting. In the last 8 hours or so I've seen this line climb from 7.5, to 8.5 to now 9.5, so apparently I've gotten a bargain, and I'm assuming DeSean Watson isn't playing. I've heard this game called a letdown spot, and even a schedule loss, but without Watson I don't see how that happens.

Haven't bet anything else yet, but here are my leans:

CHIGAGO(+3)over minnesota, arizona(+7)over LARAMS, MIAMI(-13.5)over carolina, indianapolis(+4.5)over JACKSONVILLE.

Week 4 recap, Week 5 bets

 Weird week four--I ended up 5-5-1, including 0-2-1 in games where one of the QBs didn't play. These were:

Baltimore 28, Cleveland 3. I had CLEVELAND(-2.5), and DeShawn Watson didn't play. Apparently there was some wildly different line out there and I never saw it. 0-1

Minnesota 21, Carolina 13. I had CAROLINA(+4)--in this one I wanted backup Andy Dalton to play over rookie starter Bryce Young, but that's not what happened. 0-2

LAChargers 24, Las Vegas 17--I took las vegas(+7) fairly late. I believe the line move was because Jimmy G was out, but I wouldn't be surprised if Aidan O'Connell is rated higher than Jimmy G in the near future. Also, he wears #4, and looks weirdly like Derek Carr, who the Raiders shipped to the Saints. Teams should wait at least a couple more years to recycle numbers, especially when the new guy plays the same position and is a dead-ringer. Otherwise it's confusing AF. 0-2-1

Buffalo 48, Miami 20--I took the Fins(+3). Still don't mind my 17-1 ticket on them to win the Super Bowl. Should be easy to hedge. 0-3-1

LARams 29, Indy 23--I had rams(+1)--1-3-1

Tampa Bay 26, New Orleans 9--I had tampa bay(+4)...actually another game where the "wrong" QB started, as injured Derek Carr started over Jameis Winston. Saints need to figure out QB, as Carr completed 13 passes to Alvin Kamara for 33 yards, and about 130 yards on 30+ completions, stat lines that don't even seem possible, let alone desirable--2-3-1.

Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 3--I had TENNESSEE(+2.5)--didn't know the Titans were capable of blowing anybody out, but the Bengals are awful right now.--3-3-1.

Houston 30, Pittsburgh 6--I had TEXANS(+3)--people are about to figure out that Stroud is pretty good. Meanwhile, I don't think I'm quite dialed in on the Steelers, as I probably got lucky taking them vs. the Browns, and I lost fading them vs. the Raiders.--4-3-1

Kansas City 23, NY Jets 20--I had chiefs(-9.5)--the Chiefs blew a big lead in this game, and at the end Patrick Mahomes downed the ball at the one to avoid covering the spread. He'll never become Sean McVay like that.--4-4-1.

Oh yeah, on Thursday I teased the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, and the first one hit. 5-5-1.

On to this week--

Pretty sure staying in London for consecutive weeks will benefit Jacksonville(+5.5) and make them the right side. Additionally, Buffalo could be due for a letdown after their "game of the year" win over Miami. On the flip side is the Bills penchant for winning by wide margins. Haven't pulled the trigger on this, and don't intend to be awake to watch it.

I had almost managed to talk myself into a letdown by CJ Stroud, until I heard some stat about teams returning from London without taking a bye. I don't think there's a long list of examples, since most teams take their bye afterwards, but it spells doom for Atlanta. Consider that the Falcons need to travel further than the Texans for this home game. How much does that blunt their home field advantage? houston(+1.5)over ATLANTA. The money seems to be moving this way, as I saw a (+2) a couple days ago.

INDIANAPOLIS(+2.5)over tennessee--I take it bettors were impressed with the Titans' beatdown of the Bengals last week. Now we get to see if they actually deserve to be road favorites. I got this line on FanDuel, as the locals have driven the line down to 1.5 on Jackpot Jesus.

NEW ENGLAND(+1) over new orleans--this one is a pick on JJ, so I'm betting it on FD before it moves. May also do a double tease of both teams and the under (39.5) as both of these teams have strong defenses, and varying degrees of wild dysfunction on offense. Give me the home dog outdoors vs. the road favorite dome team.

LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia-- Eagles have been winning a lot of close games. I may regret this, as Matthew Stafford has some sort of hip injury, and the Rams are down a left tackle, but if Stafford can stay of his feet long enough to feed the returning Cooper Kupp, as well as debutant Puka Nacua, the Rams can keep this close, &/or backdoor cover like the Vikes. This one is down to 4 on JJ.

MINNESOTA(+3.5) over kansas city--might wait on this one to see if it gets back to 4. Backing Minnesota has me throwing up in my mouth a little bit, but you gotta admit, the Vikings are certainly more capable of keeping the game close than the Jets. Might tease this with the OVER(52.5).

ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati--Are people betting the Bengals, or on a shadow of the Bengals? I imagine if Joe Burrow avoids getting reinjured the Bengals will eventually improve, I think they deserve to be faded until this happens. I don't expect the Cardinals to pull off an upset as they did vs. Dallas a couple weeks ago over and over, but so far they have been scrappy enough to keep it close.

baltimore(-4) at PITTSBURGH--you may need to price-shop to find this line, as I have now seen -4.5. The dog has a ridiculous record in this game, something like 22-5, so you need to consider if Pittsburgh sucks enough to warrant this line. At this point I have teased Pittsburgh and the under(38), and parleyed Baltimore and the under(+180), and Baltimore and the over(+200). Hopefully I hit on 2 out of 3.