I bet on Mannings

Ugh. So far I've only bet one College Game, and it's ole miss(-4)over AUBURN. So far Auburn is up 10-7 at halftime. Hopefully my pro picks do better.

So far I have INDIANAPOLIS(-13)over san francisco. Too much? Maybe. I've picked up Alex Smith for my fantasy team after his 3TD day last week, so I don't exactly wish him ill, but I'm not starting him this week either.

After thinking I would stay away from it for a bit, I took
new york giants(-1.5)over PHILADELPHIA. I guess I just need to but my 3 game win streak on this game in jeopardy. I usually can tell who will win this game if I can figure out who the hot team is. Lately one of these teams will be clicking, and the other won't be. Right now I don't think either of these teams is playing too well, but I think Philadelphia's embarrasment at Oakland is worse than the Giants two-game losing streak. New Orleans is New Orleans (ever think you'd hear that to explain why another team lost to them?), and if we're not sure who Arizona is, we at least know they play really well...sometimes.

Egad. Auburn just scored on two consecutive plays...well, they're reviewing the pick 6, so we'll see. Looks good to me. My bet on Mississippi looks to be in jeopardy. It counts, 24-7, Auburn.

I'm taking minnesota(+155)over GREEN BAY. Yes, this is one of those games where the home team usually wins, even if they aren't quite as good. I'm banking on Jared Allen creating enough chaos in the Packer backfield to keep the Packer offense ineffective. Green Bay rolled up a ton of yards last time they lost to the Vikings, so I guess they could roll up enough to win this time...on the other hand, I'm pretty confident that Aaron Rodgers won't be able to get deep to Greg Jennings. Jennings is staying on my fantasy bench, in favor of the Colts' Austin Collie.

I'm still considering DALLAS(-10)over seattle, and NEW ORLEANS(-11)over atlanta. Dallas could drop to 9.5. Miles Austin probably adds 3 or 4 points to Cowboy lines right now. If I can't ride him in my fantasy league, I can at least ride him against Vegas.

I hate taking all these big spreads, but if that's the Zeitgeist, you gotta ride it, ja?

Hmmmm. Ole Miss just broke their second long TD run in the third quarter. 31-21 Auburn....No, wait! Auburn just blocked the extra point, and returned it for a two-point conversion the other way, 33-20. Wacky.

I'm taking NEW ORLEANS(-11)over atlanta, befor the line goes to 13.5. Atlanta has none of the dynamism of the Dolphins, though they beat them in the first game of the season. I think last week was the Saints' letdown game, and maybe a bit of a wakeup call. This is their chance to send a message to the rest of their division, with whom they still have six games left to play. If Atlanta steps up and wins a game that is not far from a must win for them, more power to them. I'm not going against the Saints.

NFL Week 7 Pix

God. AFN is replaying Michigan State's loss to Iowa from last night, where Iowa scored the winning touchdown on the last play of the game. Just what I need. Michigan State ust scored, to make it 13-9 with 1:46 to play. It's all downhill from here.

I'm disappointed Boston College lost to Notre Dame, 20-16, especially when BC had the ball on Notre Dame's one and fumbled it away. On the other hand, if you told me BC would have five turnovers and would have about 12 rushes for 12 yards in the first half, I would have been thrilled to cover the 7.5 point spread. In fact, if I knew the above in advance, I wouldn't have bet this game at all. Anyway, I'm 1-0 on college this week, 2-0 on BC games the last two weeks, and 2-1 overall the last two weeks. I think I'm still down one or two units for the season though.

Something tells me I made the right decision to watch the Alabama-Tennessee game with Mike B., drinking Scotch and smoking cigars and catching BC-ND updates online, rather than going to the bar and watching the game live. Could it be the chairs he destroyed after Tennessee had their last second game winning field goal attempt blocked? Perhaps.

The Steelers-Vikings line finally went to six, as I suspected it might, onece it had moved to 5.5 a couple of days ago. I've been waiting to take the Vikes all week.
minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH. I've also teased Minnesota and the over, giving me 12 points and 40.5 to work with. I considered doing a double-tease special with Pittsburgh and the over, but I'm not, for now. That would penalize me if Minnesota manages to win, and I'd rather enjoy it if it happens. Owning Adrian Peterson in Fantasy is turning me into a Vikings fan this year.

I took new england(-16)over tampa bay. I think this is supposed to be a home game for the Bucs, but it's being played in London, England (yes, that London). While Bill Belicheck showed last week he is willing to take Tom Brady out of an uncompetative game, every indication is that the Pats will need to be up by four or five touchdowns before he decides the game isn't close. Did Belicheck run up the score last week? Something tells me this question is not one that worries the Patriots' coach.

I've been considering taking the Pats and the Colts all week. This led to me giving two more points in the above game than the open. Since 15 was the lowest line that was available to me, I don't feel too bad about this. On the other hand, Indy is favored by 15 as game time approaches, and this line opened at 11. Four points including the two-touchdown line seems like too much of a premium to pay, even if it is on the high-powered Colts against the St. louis Rams.

So, barring last minute wagers, these are my NFL bets this week.

atlanta(+4)over DALLAS I thought this line would come down, based on early action, but it never did.

green bay(-7)over CLEVELAND This line opened at 6.5, and moved all the way up to 10 on some sites, while it settled at 9 on bodog*. While the Colts line moved a half point more, this game offered a 3 point variance during the week, if you had accounts on different websites, or if you lived in Las Vegas. This game was probably the best argument for having multiple accounts I can remember, though now that I've discovered covers.com, I may find lines like this one all the time.

OAKLAND(+7)over new york jets Am I scared to bet on the Raiders? Yes. On the other hand, look at what the Jets have accomplished on the west coast in the recent past. Awful.

minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH Covers.com has a NFL Consensus Picks page. According to this page, 62.02% pick Minnesota(+6). Something tells me an even higer % went for Pittsburgh(-4), Pittsburgh(-4.5), Pittsburgh(-5), and Pittsburgh(-5.5). It's just a feeling I have.

new england(-16)over tampa bay Last week I went 3-0 on games with tight spreads, 0-2 on games with bigger lines. On the other hand, the other big line I stayed away from last week was covered by the Pats with about 50 points t0 spare. So I'm only betting one big line this week,** leaving alone indianapolis(-15)over ST LOUIS. Covers.com's consensus picks page says 84% like Indy(-14). I heard the Eagles had a similar (over 80%) consensus over the Raiders last week. We know how that worked out. That's the other reason I'm staying away.

*9.5 now.

Fuck Notre Dame

So far this week I've taken green bay(-7)over CLEVELAND. Currently this game is off the board. Since I haven't heard about any injuries, my guess is this line is moving to 7.5.

According to Covers.com, the Packers opened as a 6.5 point favorite. Mostly* this line is still 7, but Pinnacle has moved it all the way to 9, and 5Dimes will let you go 10 for -135. This site may make me open a couple more online accounts.

I've taken atlanta(+4)over DALLAS. I know the Cowboys are coming off a bye, but their defense is shaky, and they've shown they perfer not to make sensible personnel decisions. While this may not yet kill team morale, it certainly could slow down their offense. They've finally decided to start Miles Austin, but at Patrick Crayton's expense, instead of benching Roy Williams. This will ultimately take it's toll on their morale....probably not this week, but I'm taking the Falcons, not to be mistaken for the boy in the balloon.

I've taken boston college(+7.5)over NOTRE DAME. This opened at 8.5, so I guess I should have jumped on it. Is this a homer pick for me? If last week's BC over NC State pick was a homer pick, call this one a momentum pick, since BC covered for me, 52-20. Add that to the fact that I didn't bet ND-USC because I suspected the Irish would keep it close, (and they did, at least in the end) and I guess I feel like I have a handle on these teams.

It doesn't hurt my argument any that Notre Dame barely beat Purdue, lost to Michigan, and had to get lucky to beat Michigan State. Or that Boston College has beat Notre Dame for the last six years in a row....

It's 10 minutes to game time, and Notre Dame is back up to 8. I'm considering another bet, but I think I'll stand pat. Fuck the Irish.



*Covers.com shows line updates for four Vegas Casinos and 18 Offshore sportsbooks.

the roQQboTTomLINE: Week VII

Earlier I made my guesses for the Week 7 NFL Spreads. Then Mike B. guessed, and we looked at the actual lines. Now I'm about to listen to Bill & Cousin Sal's guesses. Below I will list the lines, starting with the actual, then mine, then Mike B's, then Bill's, then Cousin Sal's. I highlight the actual lines, along with any of us who get the line right. I list bodog's line first if there is variance.

Last week I went 1-1 on the NCAA, and 3-2 on the NFL. I correctly picked
BC(-3)over ncstate (BC won and covered, 52-20), but lost with vatech(-4)overGATECH, as Georgia Tech won, 28-23.

I got NEW ORLEANS(-3)over nygiants right, the Saints winning handily, 48-27. I was right on kansas city(+6)over WASHINGTON, as the Chiefs upset the 'Skins in the battle of politically incorrect Native American mascots. Unfortunately, I let myself get suckered into taking a couple of double-digit favorites, who both lost outright.
Oakland 13, Philadelphia(-14)9. Buffalo 16 NYJets(-10)13 in overtime. I usually enjoy it when the favorites I take lose outright, rather than winning but not covering, since then they share my pain, so I have that going for me.

On Monday night I had denver(+4)over SAN DIEGO. The Broncos won outright, 34-23, bringing me to 3-2 on the NFL for the week, and 4-3 overall . San Diego may be in danger of ceasing to be overrated if they don't do something soon.

Speaking of which,

sd(5)5,2,5,7 KC Apparantly Mike B. respects the Chargers that much less than the rest of us...I don't think the Chiefs' win impressed anybody.
gb(7)11,4,7,6 CLE I overrated how much Vegas would overrate the Packers...I think I pay the 7...Bill has 2 in a row.
ind(14,13)15,14,13,13 STL Mike B. got bodog's line exact, Bill & Sal got Vegas right...weird
PIT(4,4.5)3.5,7.5,2.5,4.5 min I hope bodog goes to 4.5. I probably take the Vikes at 4, though I may have to check the weather first. Favre likes domes these days.
HOU(3)3,6,3.5,4 sf I don't trust either one of these teams.
ne(15,14.5) 14.5,8,14,13 TB Not sure Mike B. knew this will be in London...of course, neither did I.
CAR(7.5)2.5,buf2.5,6,6.5 buf Mike B. doesn't like Carolina...not sure I do either. Does losing Trent Edwards really make Buffalo worse?
nyj(7,6)6,4,6,10 OAK can the Sanchize bounce back on the West Coast? This is like a haj to the mecca for crappy quarterbacks...not that I'm making excuses for the Sanchize or anything...
no(7,6.5)7,4,4.5,7 MIA Bill & Sal like Miami to upset. While an upset will happen at some point, I'd be more likely to ride the wave.
CIN(1.5)3,3,2.5,3.5 chi lower than any of us thought, but Bill likes Chicago anyway...
DAL(4)*,3.5,3.5,3 atl I thought Atlanta was at home...when does one of these bye teams beat the Falcons?
NYG(7)5,5,6,8 ari last year Arizona got crushed in Philly Thanksgiving. Do we trust the Giants to crush the Cards right now?
phi(7)8,6.5,7.5,6.5 WASH The Redskins are terrible. I may have to ride the Eagles into the poorhouse.

I took NYJETS(-10)over buffalo this morning. Fortunately it's an easy line to remember, since at the moment I am online at O'Kelley's, and I can't access my online gambling accounts. Unfortunately, I didn't get the Jets(-9.5) from earlier in the week.

I can't remember if I posted it before, but I took philadelphia(-14)over OAKLAND last night. I think I didn't mention it, because the BC game was still close the last time I said anything, and I feel like I bet Philly later, when the game had become a blowout. I'm here with my confederate, Mike B., and we are drinking pitcher(s) of Sam Adams. I don't call him my associate, because we are tighter than that. If the South had been an association, there never would have been a Civil War. You don't go to war with an association. If you do, you will lose in well under four years.

Besides our appreciation of decent beer, Mike B. and I share an appreciation of the Philadelphia Eagles receiving corps. He owns DeSean Jackson, and I have Jeremy Maclin. I picked him up after his monster game last week. He is starting Jackson, and I may start Maclin. The Eagles don't play until 4:00, and the Bears-Falcons game is tonight, so I can wait to change out Maclin for Roddy White.

My fantasycast wasn't updating earlier, which was pissing me off, but it is fine now.

Wolfpack Sux

I'm taking BOSTON COLLEGE(-3)over north carolina state today. In my evidence gathering phase I discovered that NCState lost to Duke this year. Throw in the cold weather this week in the northeast, and I really like the Wolfpack to continue their losing ways and pack it in. Har.

On the other hand, I checked Duke's record (after I bet), and they seem to be doing much better than usual, which could put my previous reasoning on shaky ground.

I'm not putting any $$ on texas(-3.5)over oklahoma, though I think Texas prevails & probably covers. Could be the game of the year, other than Oklahoma has slipped up twice already. On the other hand, the game IS on neutral turf (as always), and this year both teams have a revenge angle, Oklahoma because they lost, and Texas because they got screwed out of a BCS Championship Tilt with Florida.

I've taken virginia tech(-4)over GEORGIA TECH. VaTech hasn't beat as many teams as badly as I thought, but they do have some big wins over some quality opponents. Georgia Tech is a scoring machine that shows little interst in playing defense. Kind of like Bosie State, but not as good.

kansas city v. WASHINGTON opened at +6.5. I was hoping it would move to seven, and at first $$ seemed to be moving on the Redskins, so I waited. Now the line has dropped to six. So be it. kansas city(+6)over WASHINGTON. I think the Chiefs have a good shot at winning this game.

Texas-Oklahoma just ended, the 'Horns prevailing 16-13. Exactly why I didn't give 3.5. Makes me feel like a genius.

I said on the radio this morning that I was considering arkansas(+24)over FLORIDA. And I was. But I forgot. Too bad, because the 'Hogs are up 10-7 at halftime.

BC is up on NC State, 24-13. Gotta like that.

Line Showdown, Early $$

I've been editing the last two posts, which I emailed to myself. Pain in the ass. It's the 3rd quarter of the Jets-Dolphins game, which has been very competitive--scratch that, the 4th quarter just started. The Jets just stuffed the 'Fins on 1st and goal...

Miami just scored, on a rollout pass to some big WOP tight end named Pizzano or something.
17-13, and my bet is in jeopardy. Meanwhile, the Week 6 lines are out, most of them, at least. Time to compare them to my guesses.

CIN 4.5(4.5) hou--got that one
MIN 3(3) balt--and that--usually I only get 2 right...
NO 3(4.5) nyg--this might move up--esp if Eli is questionable
PIT 14(10.5)cle--it's easy to be off on bigger lines
car 3(1) TB--how much do the Bucs suck? This much!
WASH 6.5(3) kc--I'm usually not this far off so often...I may have to take the Chiefs
JAX 10(5.5) stl--apparantly I think the semi-shitty teams are closer to the really shitty teams than vegas does...
SEA 3(2) ari--that's more like it--better teams are easier to handicap
phila 14(11) OAK--this equals 20 points at home...I still probably don't take Oakland
NE 9.5(7) tenn--when does Tennessee just give up?
ATL 3.5(3.5) chi--3rd one right--I'd rather be off by one or a half on more of these and get less right...
SD 4(3) den--see how much easier it is to pick the decent matchups? Incidentally, $$ is already going to Denver, indicating that my line might be closer to right...lately Monday night games have been moving about 2 points, so I may go for a middle...

I've jumped on NEW ORLEANS(-3)over nygiants, and den(+4)over SD. I think I can middle both of these, since the lines are already getting pressure.

The Dolphins just scored with 7 seconds left. 31-27. This Wildcat has been ridiculously effective. The 'Fin cheerleaders are also ridiculously hot. I knew the Jets were in trouble when they took the lead with 5 minutes to go. It was that kind of game.

I like kc(+6.5)over WASH, but I think it will go higher.

It's the next day and I just started listening to Bill & Sal guessing the lines. It's easiest to compare if I keep it right here, rather than start a new post. I don't think I'm going to do well, given how far off I am to the actual spreads...I think they may have the two lines that didn't post for me yesterday....actually these lines are up. GB 14(9)det, NYJ 10(6)buf. Wow. These are a couple of my worst ones...I wonder if it would have made a difference if I'd watched the Monday Night game...probably. Braylon Edwards looks like he can score at will. The Jets offense suddenly looks pretty explosive.

WASH(6.5--7)3,3,8 kc--that's the line, me, Bill, Sal--we'll go in that order..the 7 is their line
Bill loves KC--I agree--see above
PIT(14)10.5,11.5,11 cle,--I'm fartherst off, but we all essentially agree
JAX(10)5.5,10.5,8 stl
GB(14)9,11.5,10.5 det
NO(3)4.5,1.5,3 Sal gets this...Bill really likes the Giants, I might too, but this foot of Eli's...
MIN(3)3,4.5,3.5 I got this...they're waiting for the Vikings to screw up...now Bill likes the Vikes with 3
CIN(4.5--5)4.5,4,7 hou
car(3)1,4,6TB this one the line is in between us...probably this is because I lost on Delhomme...but so did they
phi(14)11,13.5,8.5 OAK Sal takes my lowball spot
SEA(3)2,3.5,4 ari I think I thought going to the Super Bowl gets you a little more respect...
NYJ(10)6,13,9buf again, NY's offense suddenly got good. I think I lay 10...money is coming in on the Bills, though, believe it or not
NE(9.5--9)7,8,7 tenn me and Sal agree...still don't know what to think of the Titans
ATL(3.5--3)3.5,3.5,4 chi me and Bill agree, but their line is 3--action on the Bears will bring it to 3 though

SD (4)3,3,5.5 den Sal figured the Chargers line would be inflated...Bill thinks 4 is inflated--I guess I agree, since we both said 3. This line is coming down, as I said before. I think I get
SD(-2.5) at the end of the week.

Fantasy Recap, Late Pix

I’m stuck working on Columbus Day. It’s a government holiday, so pretty much everyone else is off. This is fine, since I have access to a computer with reasonably fast internet, as well as a bathroom nearby, where I can empty my guts of the wine, whiskey and beer I consumed yesterday while watching football.

I can’t access my fantasy team, and I can’t get on blogger. I can write an email to myself, and then cut and paste the whole thing to my blog later. At least I think I
can.

My momentary enthusiasm probably has something to do with the fact that I won this week, beating the only remaining undefeated team. Also, Roddy White broke loose for eight catches for 210 yards, and two touchdowns. The 210 yards was a career best, and a team record. My
league awards bonus points for plays longer than 40 yards (1 point) and 50 yards (2 points), so White’s 90 yard TD catch got me 12 points on its own. He got me 36 points for the day. I think
prior to this he was averaging 8.7* or so per week. Sunday’s performance brings his average up to about 15.5 per week. Insane.


Now I don’t feel so foolish drafting him in the 3rd round, with the 25th overall pick. Greg Jennings (the 24th pick, and my 2nd round pick) rewarded me in week one with a similar
performance. Since then he has done approximately squat, or slightly better than diddley squat.
If there is an upside to my 2nd and 3rd picks vastly underperforming, it’s that I don’t really fear benching them to take a shot at an unproven rookie, or last week’s hot receiver. I
feel like I pretty much have to, especially when my opponent’s key players are going up against the Buccaneers or Browns. (Last week I lost by about 40 or 50 because of this, and nice games from Chad85, Chris Cooley, and Santana Moss.


Last week I started Earl Bennett of the Chicago Bears at one wide receiver. He was Jay Cutler’s roommate at Vanderbilt, he was going up against the Lions, and Roddy White had a bye. Why the hell not? He immediately caught two passes for 32 yards. Unfortunately, he didn’t catch any more the rest of the game. He had some nice return yardage, but our league doesn’t give credit
for that. Too bad, because I have Darren Sproles as well.



This week I picked up and started Mohamed Massaquoi, the hot unknown receiver from last week. Unfortunately he only caught one pass for 16 yards. Hakeem Nicks outpointed Bennett last week, with one catch for 50+ yards and a touchdown. This week he had four catches for 49 yards…and a touchdown. I get the impression the Giants might like throwing to him in the red zone, owing to his Plax-like size. In our league, he got 11 points last week (on one catch) and 12 this week. I probably would have started him this week, if not for my pickups of Massaquoi and the Vikings’ Sidney Rice. Rice had 3 catches for 61 yards, which would have yielded me a whopping six points if I’d started him. Rice and Nicks are both arguably their teams’ 3rd receivers, so shouldn’t be worth starting, unless you have no other options. Next week Greg Jennings comes off the Packers' bye to face the Detroit Lions, so happy days could be here again, at least for fantasy starters from Green Bay .


Incidentally, Nicks is the only receiver left from my draft that I haven’t already cut, other than Jennings and White. I’ve cut Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and I’ve picked up Julian Endleman and dropped him again. Oh yeah, I started him in week 3, when Wes Welker was out. Weird. Weird because usually Bill Belichek won’t tell you if his players are going to play or not, but that week he did. After Endleman had one catch that week I decided he was not the answer to my problems. By the time ESPN’s fantasy experts came out with a list of droppables with his name on it, I had already dropped him. Earl Bennett is probably next, especially if Miles Austin is available. I think the Flaming Iguanas dropped him about week 3…


It sounds like Mario Manningham is injured, which could add some value to Nicks. I’m not sure how much Eli Manning will play, however, so this probably hurts his value, unless David Carr falls in love with him. If I’d been able to get the Giants’ Steve Smith I probably could have left
about five other guys alone. I should have gone after him a week sooner. Manningham was drafted, so was never available.


Eli was the reason I didn’t take NYGIANTS(-16)over Oakland . The Giants won, 44-7. My drinking before the game was the reason for me not taking PHILADELPHIA (-10.5?)over
tampa bay. That and their quarterback issues. Apparently QB doesn’t matter vs the dregs of the league. That, and Donovan McNabb looked AWESOME.


The Pats-Denver line was 3.5, until about 1:30 in the afternoon. I checked it then, and it was down to three. I tried to take the Pats, but it was back up to 3.5. So I stayed away. Good thing, since Denver won, 20-17 in OT. I guess I went 2-1 in the games I avoided. Make that 3-1. I loved Cincinnati getting 8.5. I stayed away from it basically out of Raven homerism, brought on by my owning Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. As for LeRon McClain, I let him go. Last I knew he was wasting space on somebody elses bench. The other part of my homerism stems from my living in the Baltimore area last year, and from my appreciation of the Ravens’ defense oriented identity,
personality, or whatever you want to call it.


The thing is, I’m not convinced that their defense is that good. I already knew you could throw on them, and Cedric Benson can run on them. Maybe he’s the only one, but I don’t know….


Oh yeah. I also loved Cincy giving 5.5 or 6 last week against Cleveland. That was the other thing that scared me off the Bengals.


So what games did I bet? I would’ve told you before, but for the game related drinking. I’ve posted enough losses late that you ought to be able to believe my late wins. And so far I’m 2-0.
I took minnesota(-10.5)over STLOUIS. The Vikings covered, 38-10. I also took indianapolis(-3.5)over TENNESSEE . This line was 3.5 earlier in the week. By game time Sunday night it had moved to 4.5. The Colts covered, 31-9. Tonight, I have

nyjets(-2)over MIAMI . That line moved to 3.5 by gametime.** Hopefully Rex Ryan’s defense can shut down Ronnie Brown and the ‘Fins’ wildcat. Because the team he left ( Baltimore, see above) is getting soft.


Maybe it’s because everyone talked about it after the Colts won on Monday night despite getting destroyed in time of possession, but it seems like a lot of games have been getting a bit lopsided
lately. The Giants had the ball for 36:04 this week. On the other hand, the Eagles had the ball for only 25:27, showing that the Colts aren’t the only team that can win without the ball.


On the other hand, if the Giants and Eagles have this ratio when they play each other, the Giants will win. When does this happen again? I’m 3-0 the last 3 times these teams have met. The underdog has won and covered each time.


The Seahawks had the ball for 34:44, and won by even more than the Giants and Eagles, 41-0. The game wasn’t too interesting, unless you were a fantasy owner.


I’m pretty sure Matt Hasselbeck didn’t start in our league, and I can’t remember who has him, but by my math he got about 38 points this week. (39, actually--the guy who had him on his bench also had Donovan McNabb on his bench, with 38. He started Shawn Hill, who got 14.) On the other hand, the proud owner of Seneca Wallace started him, to the tune of no stats, since he didn’t play. His other QB had a bye. I think it was Rodgers or Rivers. (No, Drew Brees) He
should’ve come to me. I would’ve traded him David Garrard. Garrard had three solid weeks in
a row. I considered starting him myself, since Seattle’s defense is probably a bit worse than Cincinnati’s, but I decided that Flacco is more consistent, and that I didn’t trust Garrard in Seattle, since that may be the biggest home-field advantage left. Garrard got his owners
a whopping nine points, if they started him. Joe Flacco got me 14, which may be a point or two less than Jay Cutler got me in week one.


This may be the first week that my starting QB actually scored more than my bench. Ironically, this was my worst QB week. Most weeks they all put up similarly strong numbers, showing that I drafted pretty well at QB, despite filling my entire offense first. I’d argue that I had the best draft in the league, if my receivers didn’t keep crapping out. I could have taken Reggie Wayne and Marquis Colston. Or Carolina ’s Steve Smith for that matter. I also could have had Tony Gonzalez over Jason Witten. I don’t think I’d be undefeated if I’d gone that way, but I might be close. I still think there were no good backs available at that point. On the other hand, I took Derrick Ward in the 4th, and I’ve already dropped him. Makes Pierre Thomas look pretty
good.


Oh yeah. Mike Sims-Walker didn’t play, which burned his fantasy owners. (Same guy that started Seneca Wallace in my League) Apparently he violated some team rule. This may explain Torry Holt’s resurrgance, with seven catches
for 95 yards. That would get me 15 points, even without touchdowns. Maybe I should pick him back up. Maybe he won’t be available….


The other thing that one this week for me other than Roddy White’s game was the fact that Marquis Colston and Vincent Jackson had byes, eliminating them from my opponent’s roster. He’s pretty stacked that way, most weeks. Of course, based on my draft, I should be too. I feel like he had other significant byes too…maybe on defense. I know he doesn’t have Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, or LT, because I’ve played those teams already…I know he benched Leon Washington, because he doesn’t have any starters left for the MNF game. I can’t think who his other guy was besides Chris Johnson. If he’d done anything I’d know….Maybe it was Steve
Slaton. (It was Brian Westbrook, who got 9 points)


Cedric Benson’s owner didn’t start him, she did start Darren McFadden, however. I don’t think he played, because he put up no stats. She had an awful draft, and has made no effort to improve her team since. I’d like to set her straight, but I’d rather play her first. I wouldn’t mind trying to snag players from her, but I’m pretty sure she knows Matt Schaub is good, and I can’t think
of anybody else I’d want. I think she has Housh, and maybe Anquan Boldin. I guess I’d consider them. If Matt Hasselbeck plays, Housh’s value goes way up. (As it turns out, her team would have outscored mine if she'd started Cedric Benson over McFadden. Not starting Benson vs. the Ravens is excuseable, but she really had no other moves that made any sense. I'd be pissed if I lost to an owner so negligent. Speaking of which, the guy that started Seneca Wallace and Mike Sims-Walker won his game too, despite his double doughnuts.)


*8.7 was exactly right. I origionally said he had 35 points, however...I think that is really what it said, earlier though, since sometimes the FantasyCast misses something and later corrects itself.



**It's halftime right now, as I edit this, and the Jets lead 13-10. If I'd taken the 'Fins(+3.5) late I could have a middle right now.

the roQQboTTomLINE

I wrote for several hours today hoping I would be able to email what I wrote to this blog. So far this has not happened....apparently I can cut and paste in "Edit Html"mode. WORD.

the roQQboTTomLINE

Now is as good a time as any to see if I can guess what the Week 6 Lines will be. Hopefully I’ll be able to post the actual lines tomorrow.

CINCY 4.5 hou
GB 9 det
MIN 3 balt
NO 4.5 nyg
PIT 10.5 cle
car 1 TB
WASH 3 kc
JAX 5.5 stl
SEA 2 ari
phi 11 OAK
NE 7 tenn
NYJ 6 buf
ATL 3.5 chi

SD 3 den

I think the linesmakers will be terrified of being wrong on Denver at San Diego. Whatever the line is, I think bodog wont post one until about Thursday. I think it will be either 2.5 if they think the public will pound Denver , and 3.5 if they think the public likes the Chargers coming off a bye. LaDanian Tomlinson probably plays, but Vegas may use his status as an excuse to not post a line. At this point I think you can make a strong case that Denver is a slightly better team because they have a better defense. I’m not sure if the betting public still thinks San Diego has a
good defense. If they do, and if the line skews their way because SD is near Vegas, or because the Chargers are a popular team, 3.5 makes sense. The more I think about it, the more I think Vegas just starts the line at 3, and moves it quickly to keep from getting overwhelmed by action one way.

Part of me wants to say Jacksonville will be favored by 7 or 8. The other part of me says they just lost to Seattle , 41-0.

This may be the week I start David Garrard....St. Louis is a fantasy kingmaker. On the other hand, if Chicago at Atlanta is competitive, Jay Cutler may put up some big numbers. I’m much
more worried about Joe Flacco this week (see below.)

I think Cincinnati will finally start to be taken seriously, now that they beat Baltimore. On the other hand, I was taking them seriously, until they failed to cover vs. Cleveland . Ironically, Houston has turned into the team Cincy once was—the team that never won, but looked good on paper because of their fantasy numbers…other than Steve Slaton has done nothing so far this year….I could see this line being 6.5 or more, but I’d be terrified to go against Houston giving that many points. I may not bet any of their games all year…Houston will go 8-8 this year. All their games will be close, except for two or three where somebody decides to play defense.

Last week all the crappy teams were playing good teams. This week, the crappy teams are playing each other. Now we’ll see who Vegas thinks is truly crappy. I say Carolina by 1 on the
road. Vegas could say Tampa by one, or they could say Carolina by 5. I hope they set a good enough line that I’m not tempted to bet on a game where Jake Delhomme is involved. For instance, last week I didn’t trust the Panthers to cover 4.5 vs. Washington , and they didn’t, winning by three. What burns me is when the Cowboys are favored by 8, trail 7-0 at the half, and cover because of a Delhomme pick-6 special. Right now I’d be 12-4 betting the NFL this
year, except for I took the Panthers twice. Look for the Dolphins to win outright tonight, now that I’ve jinxed myself by discussing my record.

New Orleans could easily be favored by 6.5, and that’s without factoring in Eli’s foot. I don’t think we’ll see a line here until the end of the week. If Baltimore is less than a 3 point dog at Minnesota that will be Vegas showing it’s love of the AFC. Personally, I think the Vikings by 3.5 or 4 makes more sense. I have way too many fantasy irons in this fire. Glenn Coffee
and Tashard Choice have byes, Darren Sproles is going up against another good defense (also behind LT, I’m pretty sure)…I’m probably screwed next week—at least Greg Jennings gets to run wild in the Detroit secondary. Just what the doctor ordered…

I suppose I should be glad Cedric Benson just ran for 120 yards against Baltimore —hopefully
the Adri-anchise can do the same. I’d love to see a defensive struggle, but that will do nothing for my fantasy team. But notice how high scoring these teams’ games have been—I just think these teams will end up throwing against each other. Playing Joe Flacco is a high-risk, high-reward
proposition here. He could end up with Aaron Rodgers-like numbers, or he could get taken out to the woodshed by Jared Allen and the other Vikings. This will be a chance for Mike Oher to show how good he is…or how much he still has to learn. The more I think about it, the more I want
to see this game. And Saints-Giants.

Odin had two Ravens that flew alongside him and his eight-legged horse, whose names translate to Thought and Memory. I don’t know what that means, but it’s pretty badass.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh could easily be 12 or 13. On the other hand, Pittsburgh just failed to cover, while Cleveland actually won a game last week. Do the Browns have the tools to come back in garbage time? Will Troy Polamalu’s hair be seen whipping ‘round the Steelers secondary next week?

Holy fuck. I just checked the Cleveland box score, and Derek Anderson was 2 of 17 for 23 yards. No wonder Massaquoi got only one catch. I hope the Jets enjoy Braylon Edwards.

Maybe Week 6 will see a Ragnarok in the Metrodome....

2-1, so far...

It's either halftime or the beginning of the 3rd quarter for the early games. This morning I took INDIANAPOLIS(-10.5)over seattle, and new york giants(-9.5)over KANSAS CITY. Right now New York is up 20-3, and Joseph Addai just scored to put the Colts up 28-3.

Cleveland was just threatening to score, either knotting the score at 14 all, or at least covering my six point spread with a field goal, 14-10. Instead Derek Anderson threw an interception.


The 4:00 games are underway. The Giants hung on to win and cover, 27-16. The Colts won handily, 34-17. The Bengals won in OT, but failed to cover, 23-20. The San Diego at Pittsburgh game is Sunday night, and will determine my week.

Unless I bet the Monday Night game. Minnesota is now favored by 4.

Wolverines by a Wing?

I'm enjoying some day-old Italian Roast and Camel Lights right now, prepping to empty my bowels ahead of a probable outing to HOOTERS, to watch Michigan at Michigan State. The mighty Spartans are 1-3, yet are favored by 3.5 over the 4-0 Wolverines. Here's hoping that Vegas isn't completely out to lunch here. As far as I'm concerned, this line is bulletin board fodder for Michigan, who so far have been plenty clutch and don't need any.

I suppose I could get completely blotto and make my wife drive home....More likely I'll end up leaving at halftime. Since we've let our outlandish dish package lapse in my absense, I'm not sure if the local stations will carry U-M-MSU.


I've looked, and the local stations seem to have a plateful of dreck scheduled for this afternoon. Hooters it is. My morning dump was a successful, though harrowing affair, aided by Wolfgang Puck's French Roast (freshly brewed) in addition to yesterday's aforementioned Italian Roast. Time to wake up my asawa, so she can enjoy some wings, while I check out the breasts & thighs of the waitstaff. Go green.

+$1500 on Poker, 3-1 on NFL

After breaking even at the Mirage on Thursday, and winning $300 at the Bellagio on Friday, I went to the Palms Saturday night. When the smoke cleared, I was up $1192. I followed that up with a $250 or so win at the Hard Rock on Sunday night. I finished on a down note, losing $225 at the Venetian, after hunting around for a game Tuesday morning.

I first went to Rio at about 2AM or so Tuesday. Just before I bought in for $300, the power went out. The cardroom manager said that the Casino was doing some sort of security test. While most of the lights were out for only about five seconds, the lights in the cardroom didn't come back on, so we had to wait to play. After about 15 minutes, pretty much everyone left. I asked one of the guys who was leaving at the same time as me where he recommended I find a game, and he told me Caesar's Palace or the Venetian. Since he seemed to think the $2-5 game at Caesars offered some pretty sick action, that was my next stop.

If there is sick action in the $2-5 game at Caesar's, it must take place on the weekends, or at least a bit earlier in the day. When I got there there were two $1-3 games winding down, and the final table of a tournament that had started at 1am. The $1-3 game was about to break up when I left, down $33, and made my way over to the Venetian.

The action was slow even at the Venetian that morning, with only three games going when I sat down at a $1-2 NL game. One dealer remarked that the poker room had not gone dark in over two years, but he thought that it this could be the day. This would potentially be a minor disaster, as the secret to staying open is that players always know you will be open. The hardest thing is getting games started, especially when players know they can find a game somewhere else if they leave. The biggest cardrooms in Vegas right now are the Wynn, the Bellagio, and the Venetian, and one of the big reasons players frequent these places are because they can always find a game.

I never made it over to the Wynn, but one of the other reasons to play at the Bellagio and the Venetian is that these casinos are nice, and their cardrooms are nice. While I won't get into individual hands I played right now, I will say that I doubt I could find a nicer place to lose $225, other than perhaps the sportsbook at the Palazzo.

The Palazzo's Sportsbook has terraced seating facing a giant TV screen, like a stand at a football game, but instead of benches or stadium seats, it has rows of plush couches. Personally, I would like to see the lighting turned down a bit, and I would like to see a poker room close by, but this would be a nice spot to hang out when you are running bad, or have some other reason to avoid gambling (other than on sports, of course.)

The Bellagio's racing and sports book is right where it should be, next to the poker room. The lights are turned down to what I consider appropriate, and the chairs are all leather, the panneling is wood, and there are little pewter horses sticking up here and there. There are also 40 or 50 TV screens. So I didn't mind going back there on Monday to collect my winnings from New York Giants(-7)24 Tampa Bay 0, Minnesota 27 San Francisco(+7)24, and
New Orleans(-6)27 Buffalo 7. I lost on Dallas 21 Carolina(+9)7, but this was online, since the Bellagio was giving only 8.5.

So I left Vegas up 3-0 on the NFL, and up about $1600 gambling. If I'd gone by myself I'd be up a nice chunk. On the other hand, I got to take my wife and kid to Wolfgang Puck's Postrino Bar & Grill, along with taking the boy on several trips up and down the adjacent escalator, since he couldn't keep still. Terrible twos? He may be going for the record.

Right now I have cincinnati(-6)over CLEVELAND. This line opened at 5.5, and is now 6.5. Apparantly Vegas couldn't decide if the betting public would be taking the Bengals seriously now that they've beat Pittsburgh. They are, at least when they're playing the mighty Browns.

I also have san diego(+7)over PITTSBURGH. While I wasn't quite ready to take the Bengals over the Steelers last week, I feel pretty good getting 7 with the Chargers. While I'm fairly confident the Chargers will find a way to lose this game, I expect it to be by 3 or 4. Right now this line is off the board, probably because LaDanian Tomlinson might play. His injury is why I got seven in the first place. If Tomlinson swings this game for the Chargers, I think it will be because they figure out ways to throw to Darren Sproles, since he's only running the ball 7 or 8 times this game. Anyone expecting either of these teams to run successfully this week will be disappointed.

Fantasy-wise, my current theory is that Darren Sproles gets more points when LT plays, because he gets used more then as a receiver. He also may do better against good run defenses, for the same reason. It certainly worked out that way against the Ravens. I'm not starting him this week, nor Ray Rice, but Glen Coffee. (Mmmmmmmmmmmm, Coffee!) Now that Frank Gore is out for a few weeks he should get most of the carries for the 49ers, and this week he goes up against the vaunted Rams defense. Matthew Berry predicts that Coffee will win games for his fantasy teams this week. Lets hope this is factually correct.