the roQQboTTomLINE

I wrote for several hours today hoping I would be able to email what I wrote to this blog. So far this has not happened....apparently I can cut and paste in "Edit Html"mode. WORD.

the roQQboTTomLINE

Now is as good a time as any to see if I can guess what the Week 6 Lines will be. Hopefully I’ll be able to post the actual lines tomorrow.

CINCY 4.5 hou
GB 9 det
MIN 3 balt
NO 4.5 nyg
PIT 10.5 cle
car 1 TB
WASH 3 kc
JAX 5.5 stl
SEA 2 ari
phi 11 OAK
NE 7 tenn
NYJ 6 buf
ATL 3.5 chi

SD 3 den

I think the linesmakers will be terrified of being wrong on Denver at San Diego. Whatever the line is, I think bodog wont post one until about Thursday. I think it will be either 2.5 if they think the public will pound Denver , and 3.5 if they think the public likes the Chargers coming off a bye. LaDanian Tomlinson probably plays, but Vegas may use his status as an excuse to not post a line. At this point I think you can make a strong case that Denver is a slightly better team because they have a better defense. I’m not sure if the betting public still thinks San Diego has a
good defense. If they do, and if the line skews their way because SD is near Vegas, or because the Chargers are a popular team, 3.5 makes sense. The more I think about it, the more I think Vegas just starts the line at 3, and moves it quickly to keep from getting overwhelmed by action one way.

Part of me wants to say Jacksonville will be favored by 7 or 8. The other part of me says they just lost to Seattle , 41-0.

This may be the week I start David Garrard....St. Louis is a fantasy kingmaker. On the other hand, if Chicago at Atlanta is competitive, Jay Cutler may put up some big numbers. I’m much
more worried about Joe Flacco this week (see below.)

I think Cincinnati will finally start to be taken seriously, now that they beat Baltimore. On the other hand, I was taking them seriously, until they failed to cover vs. Cleveland . Ironically, Houston has turned into the team Cincy once was—the team that never won, but looked good on paper because of their fantasy numbers…other than Steve Slaton has done nothing so far this year….I could see this line being 6.5 or more, but I’d be terrified to go against Houston giving that many points. I may not bet any of their games all year…Houston will go 8-8 this year. All their games will be close, except for two or three where somebody decides to play defense.

Last week all the crappy teams were playing good teams. This week, the crappy teams are playing each other. Now we’ll see who Vegas thinks is truly crappy. I say Carolina by 1 on the
road. Vegas could say Tampa by one, or they could say Carolina by 5. I hope they set a good enough line that I’m not tempted to bet on a game where Jake Delhomme is involved. For instance, last week I didn’t trust the Panthers to cover 4.5 vs. Washington , and they didn’t, winning by three. What burns me is when the Cowboys are favored by 8, trail 7-0 at the half, and cover because of a Delhomme pick-6 special. Right now I’d be 12-4 betting the NFL this
year, except for I took the Panthers twice. Look for the Dolphins to win outright tonight, now that I’ve jinxed myself by discussing my record.

New Orleans could easily be favored by 6.5, and that’s without factoring in Eli’s foot. I don’t think we’ll see a line here until the end of the week. If Baltimore is less than a 3 point dog at Minnesota that will be Vegas showing it’s love of the AFC. Personally, I think the Vikings by 3.5 or 4 makes more sense. I have way too many fantasy irons in this fire. Glenn Coffee
and Tashard Choice have byes, Darren Sproles is going up against another good defense (also behind LT, I’m pretty sure)…I’m probably screwed next week—at least Greg Jennings gets to run wild in the Detroit secondary. Just what the doctor ordered…

I suppose I should be glad Cedric Benson just ran for 120 yards against Baltimore —hopefully
the Adri-anchise can do the same. I’d love to see a defensive struggle, but that will do nothing for my fantasy team. But notice how high scoring these teams’ games have been—I just think these teams will end up throwing against each other. Playing Joe Flacco is a high-risk, high-reward
proposition here. He could end up with Aaron Rodgers-like numbers, or he could get taken out to the woodshed by Jared Allen and the other Vikings. This will be a chance for Mike Oher to show how good he is…or how much he still has to learn. The more I think about it, the more I want
to see this game. And Saints-Giants.

Odin had two Ravens that flew alongside him and his eight-legged horse, whose names translate to Thought and Memory. I don’t know what that means, but it’s pretty badass.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh could easily be 12 or 13. On the other hand, Pittsburgh just failed to cover, while Cleveland actually won a game last week. Do the Browns have the tools to come back in garbage time? Will Troy Polamalu’s hair be seen whipping ‘round the Steelers secondary next week?

Holy fuck. I just checked the Cleveland box score, and Derek Anderson was 2 of 17 for 23 yards. No wonder Massaquoi got only one catch. I hope the Jets enjoy Braylon Edwards.

Maybe Week 6 will see a Ragnarok in the Metrodome....