Saints, Ravens get sick action
I didn't bet any college games this weekend, after last week's poor showing. I did consider Tennessee (+30) over Florida, and Washington (+18-19) over USC. Oh well. I would've looked like a genius.
Right now I have carolina(+7)overATLANTA. I waited until last night to bet this game, which was 6 all week. I got it at 6.5 and paid some extra vig to get 7. It's probably a suckers move, but 7 is a big half point. Ironically, I need Roddy White to get me some fantasy points, so I'm a bit conflicted here.
I took NYJETS(+4)over newengland. I guess the line opened at 6 or 6.5, but the cowards at bodog wouldn't post the line until it stopped moving. Based on the vig, it appears that money is still coming in on the Jets. I'm curiousto see if the line gets to 3.5 by game time, in an hour. According to Chad Millman, taking the Jets after the line moved this much is a sucker's play, while getting 6.5 would've been a wiseguy play. My consolation is that my own guess for the line was ne(-3.5), so I'm still getting better than that. So far I've been within a point on probably 70% of the lines (I guess them at the beginning of the week, ahead of Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal),
whatever that's worth.
Oh yeah, Wes Welker is injured, a knee I think. I'm guessing the Pats are ready with a replacement. They had better be, because Welker would be their main safety valve when the Jets blitz, as they did 70% of the time last week. Right now I'm glad I drafted ahead and behind where Welker was picked, because at the right number I would have taken him.
The team in my league that has Tom Brady is in such disarray that I'm not even worried about facing them in week eleven, as much as my team could get taken apart by injuries by then. If I get a chance I will go through it here, just for a laugh. The nicest thing I could say is that his bench are a bunch of deep sleepers. He probably has 6 or 7 candidates for comeback player of the year, which is to say, if they don't resurrect their careers (or at least their fantasy careers) they are pretty much worthless.
I have nygiants(+3)over DALLAS. I need Witten to make some plays, and I need Brandon Jacobs to not have a big game. If Adrian Peterson runs wild against the Lions a may not be worried about this by the time this game kicks off Sunday night. Speaking of Vikings, I picked up DE Ray Edwards for this game, hoping that the Lions, who did not take my advice and pick up Left Tackes Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher, give up some sacks. I am also rooting for Matt Stafford to not get hurt. Fair and Balanced, that's my motto too.
I've been considering the Eagles since the game was a pick. This morning I decided that even at +2 the Eagles are too much of a risk. Now it's 2.5, and you need to pay a 3 point vig. They give you a vig on the Eagles. Apparantly bodog is determined to not let the line go to 3. I'm thinking about the Eagles again. 35 minutes to game time.
Meanwhile, Drew Brees is leading the Saints in 300 style chants. I think I'd be more inspired if the home defense was doing this, especially since the Eagles wear Michigan State Spartan green, or used to, at least. I think the league is more interesting if the Saints start off 7-0 or so than if they get smacked down in week 2 by a team without a starting QB. Jeff Garcia is their new backup, and Vick can play next week. If I don't bet this, I'm hoping that Saints lines get exhorbatantly high, so I can go against them, if I dare.
Chad Millman also likes the Bears (+3) at home against Pittsburgh. I'm not sold on Cutler vs the Steelers defense, especially when the Steelers are playing on 10 days rest.
Meanwhile, I have taken SANFRANCISCO(-1)over seattle. Hard to say how this game shakes out, or this division, for that matter. I like the Niners' defense, and I think Seattle is a different team on the road. I'm going up against Frank Gore though, so I hope he gets injured and Glen Coffee runs wild. Mmmmmmmmmmm...coffee....
The Ravens vig is up to -150 with tehm getting 3 at San Diego. This is insane. I may have to take San Diego, which pains me, since I have Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and LeRon McClain on my fantasy team. On the other hand, I also have Steven Cooper and Darren Sproles. The
Chargers(-3) are +130. There is no straight up odds bet on this game. I can't remember seeing lines like these before.
It looks like $$ is coming in on the Dolphins(+3.5). I expected the opposite, and I was going to jump on Indy before the line got any bigger. Now I may wait, to see if I can give just three.
The Packers line started at 9, and was one of two I hit exactly. It went up to 9.5, but is now down to 8.5. Interesting. Cincy may just keep this one close.
Right now I have carolina(+7)overATLANTA. I waited until last night to bet this game, which was 6 all week. I got it at 6.5 and paid some extra vig to get 7. It's probably a suckers move, but 7 is a big half point. Ironically, I need Roddy White to get me some fantasy points, so I'm a bit conflicted here.
I took NYJETS(+4)over newengland. I guess the line opened at 6 or 6.5, but the cowards at bodog wouldn't post the line until it stopped moving. Based on the vig, it appears that money is still coming in on the Jets. I'm curiousto see if the line gets to 3.5 by game time, in an hour. According to Chad Millman, taking the Jets after the line moved this much is a sucker's play, while getting 6.5 would've been a wiseguy play. My consolation is that my own guess for the line was ne(-3.5), so I'm still getting better than that. So far I've been within a point on probably 70% of the lines (I guess them at the beginning of the week, ahead of Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal),
whatever that's worth.
Oh yeah, Wes Welker is injured, a knee I think. I'm guessing the Pats are ready with a replacement. They had better be, because Welker would be their main safety valve when the Jets blitz, as they did 70% of the time last week. Right now I'm glad I drafted ahead and behind where Welker was picked, because at the right number I would have taken him.
The team in my league that has Tom Brady is in such disarray that I'm not even worried about facing them in week eleven, as much as my team could get taken apart by injuries by then. If I get a chance I will go through it here, just for a laugh. The nicest thing I could say is that his bench are a bunch of deep sleepers. He probably has 6 or 7 candidates for comeback player of the year, which is to say, if they don't resurrect their careers (or at least their fantasy careers) they are pretty much worthless.
I have nygiants(+3)over DALLAS. I need Witten to make some plays, and I need Brandon Jacobs to not have a big game. If Adrian Peterson runs wild against the Lions a may not be worried about this by the time this game kicks off Sunday night. Speaking of Vikings, I picked up DE Ray Edwards for this game, hoping that the Lions, who did not take my advice and pick up Left Tackes Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher, give up some sacks. I am also rooting for Matt Stafford to not get hurt. Fair and Balanced, that's my motto too.
I've been considering the Eagles since the game was a pick. This morning I decided that even at +2 the Eagles are too much of a risk. Now it's 2.5, and you need to pay a 3 point vig. They give you a vig on the Eagles. Apparantly bodog is determined to not let the line go to 3. I'm thinking about the Eagles again. 35 minutes to game time.
Meanwhile, Drew Brees is leading the Saints in 300 style chants. I think I'd be more inspired if the home defense was doing this, especially since the Eagles wear Michigan State Spartan green, or used to, at least. I think the league is more interesting if the Saints start off 7-0 or so than if they get smacked down in week 2 by a team without a starting QB. Jeff Garcia is their new backup, and Vick can play next week. If I don't bet this, I'm hoping that Saints lines get exhorbatantly high, so I can go against them, if I dare.
Chad Millman also likes the Bears (+3) at home against Pittsburgh. I'm not sold on Cutler vs the Steelers defense, especially when the Steelers are playing on 10 days rest.
Meanwhile, I have taken SANFRANCISCO(-1)over seattle. Hard to say how this game shakes out, or this division, for that matter. I like the Niners' defense, and I think Seattle is a different team on the road. I'm going up against Frank Gore though, so I hope he gets injured and Glen Coffee runs wild. Mmmmmmmmmmm...coffee....
The Ravens vig is up to -150 with tehm getting 3 at San Diego. This is insane. I may have to take San Diego, which pains me, since I have Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and LeRon McClain on my fantasy team. On the other hand, I also have Steven Cooper and Darren Sproles. The
Chargers(-3) are +130. There is no straight up odds bet on this game. I can't remember seeing lines like these before.
It looks like $$ is coming in on the Dolphins(+3.5). I expected the opposite, and I was going to jump on Indy before the line got any bigger. Now I may wait, to see if I can give just three.
The Packers line started at 9, and was one of two I hit exactly. It went up to 9.5, but is now down to 8.5. Interesting. Cincy may just keep this one close.
posted by roQQ | 8:51 AM
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