NFL Week 7 Pix
God. AFN is replaying Michigan State's loss to Iowa from last night, where Iowa scored the winning touchdown on the last play of the game. Just what I need. Michigan State ust scored, to make it 13-9 with 1:46 to play. It's all downhill from here.
I'm disappointed Boston College lost to Notre Dame, 20-16, especially when BC had the ball on Notre Dame's one and fumbled it away. On the other hand, if you told me BC would have five turnovers and would have about 12 rushes for 12 yards in the first half, I would have been thrilled to cover the 7.5 point spread. In fact, if I knew the above in advance, I wouldn't have bet this game at all. Anyway, I'm 1-0 on college this week, 2-0 on BC games the last two weeks, and 2-1 overall the last two weeks. I think I'm still down one or two units for the season though.
Something tells me I made the right decision to watch the Alabama-Tennessee game with Mike B., drinking Scotch and smoking cigars and catching BC-ND updates online, rather than going to the bar and watching the game live. Could it be the chairs he destroyed after Tennessee had their last second game winning field goal attempt blocked? Perhaps.
The Steelers-Vikings line finally went to six, as I suspected it might, onece it had moved to 5.5 a couple of days ago. I've been waiting to take the Vikes all week.
minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH. I've also teased Minnesota and the over, giving me 12 points and 40.5 to work with. I considered doing a double-tease special with Pittsburgh and the over, but I'm not, for now. That would penalize me if Minnesota manages to win, and I'd rather enjoy it if it happens. Owning Adrian Peterson in Fantasy is turning me into a Vikings fan this year.
I took new england(-16)over tampa bay. I think this is supposed to be a home game for the Bucs, but it's being played in London, England (yes, that London). While Bill Belicheck showed last week he is willing to take Tom Brady out of an uncompetative game, every indication is that the Pats will need to be up by four or five touchdowns before he decides the game isn't close. Did Belicheck run up the score last week? Something tells me this question is not one that worries the Patriots' coach.
I've been considering taking the Pats and the Colts all week. This led to me giving two more points in the above game than the open. Since 15 was the lowest line that was available to me, I don't feel too bad about this. On the other hand, Indy is favored by 15 as game time approaches, and this line opened at 11. Four points including the two-touchdown line seems like too much of a premium to pay, even if it is on the high-powered Colts against the St. louis Rams.
So, barring last minute wagers, these are my NFL bets this week.
atlanta(+4)over DALLAS I thought this line would come down, based on early action, but it never did.
green bay(-7)over CLEVELAND This line opened at 6.5, and moved all the way up to 10 on some sites, while it settled at 9 on bodog*. While the Colts line moved a half point more, this game offered a 3 point variance during the week, if you had accounts on different websites, or if you lived in Las Vegas. This game was probably the best argument for having multiple accounts I can remember, though now that I've discovered covers.com, I may find lines like this one all the time.
OAKLAND(+7)over new york jets Am I scared to bet on the Raiders? Yes. On the other hand, look at what the Jets have accomplished on the west coast in the recent past. Awful.
minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH Covers.com has a NFL Consensus Picks page. According to this page, 62.02% pick Minnesota(+6). Something tells me an even higer % went for Pittsburgh(-4), Pittsburgh(-4.5), Pittsburgh(-5), and Pittsburgh(-5.5). It's just a feeling I have.
new england(-16)over tampa bay Last week I went 3-0 on games with tight spreads, 0-2 on games with bigger lines. On the other hand, the other big line I stayed away from last week was covered by the Pats with about 50 points t0 spare. So I'm only betting one big line this week,** leaving alone indianapolis(-15)over ST LOUIS. Covers.com's consensus picks page says 84% like Indy(-14). I heard the Eagles had a similar (over 80%) consensus over the Raiders last week. We know how that worked out. That's the other reason I'm staying away.
*9.5 now.
I'm disappointed Boston College lost to Notre Dame, 20-16, especially when BC had the ball on Notre Dame's one and fumbled it away. On the other hand, if you told me BC would have five turnovers and would have about 12 rushes for 12 yards in the first half, I would have been thrilled to cover the 7.5 point spread. In fact, if I knew the above in advance, I wouldn't have bet this game at all. Anyway, I'm 1-0 on college this week, 2-0 on BC games the last two weeks, and 2-1 overall the last two weeks. I think I'm still down one or two units for the season though.
Something tells me I made the right decision to watch the Alabama-Tennessee game with Mike B., drinking Scotch and smoking cigars and catching BC-ND updates online, rather than going to the bar and watching the game live. Could it be the chairs he destroyed after Tennessee had their last second game winning field goal attempt blocked? Perhaps.
The Steelers-Vikings line finally went to six, as I suspected it might, onece it had moved to 5.5 a couple of days ago. I've been waiting to take the Vikes all week.
minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH. I've also teased Minnesota and the over, giving me 12 points and 40.5 to work with. I considered doing a double-tease special with Pittsburgh and the over, but I'm not, for now. That would penalize me if Minnesota manages to win, and I'd rather enjoy it if it happens. Owning Adrian Peterson in Fantasy is turning me into a Vikings fan this year.
I took new england(-16)over tampa bay. I think this is supposed to be a home game for the Bucs, but it's being played in London, England (yes, that London). While Bill Belicheck showed last week he is willing to take Tom Brady out of an uncompetative game, every indication is that the Pats will need to be up by four or five touchdowns before he decides the game isn't close. Did Belicheck run up the score last week? Something tells me this question is not one that worries the Patriots' coach.
I've been considering taking the Pats and the Colts all week. This led to me giving two more points in the above game than the open. Since 15 was the lowest line that was available to me, I don't feel too bad about this. On the other hand, Indy is favored by 15 as game time approaches, and this line opened at 11. Four points including the two-touchdown line seems like too much of a premium to pay, even if it is on the high-powered Colts against the St. louis Rams.
So, barring last minute wagers, these are my NFL bets this week.
atlanta(+4)over DALLAS I thought this line would come down, based on early action, but it never did.
green bay(-7)over CLEVELAND This line opened at 6.5, and moved all the way up to 10 on some sites, while it settled at 9 on bodog*. While the Colts line moved a half point more, this game offered a 3 point variance during the week, if you had accounts on different websites, or if you lived in Las Vegas. This game was probably the best argument for having multiple accounts I can remember, though now that I've discovered covers.com, I may find lines like this one all the time.
OAKLAND(+7)over new york jets Am I scared to bet on the Raiders? Yes. On the other hand, look at what the Jets have accomplished on the west coast in the recent past. Awful.
minnesota(+6)over PITTSBURGH Covers.com has a NFL Consensus Picks page. According to this page, 62.02% pick Minnesota(+6). Something tells me an even higer % went for Pittsburgh(-4), Pittsburgh(-4.5), Pittsburgh(-5), and Pittsburgh(-5.5). It's just a feeling I have.
new england(-16)over tampa bay Last week I went 3-0 on games with tight spreads, 0-2 on games with bigger lines. On the other hand, the other big line I stayed away from last week was covered by the Pats with about 50 points t0 spare. So I'm only betting one big line this week,** leaving alone indianapolis(-15)over ST LOUIS. Covers.com's consensus picks page says 84% like Indy(-14). I heard the Eagles had a similar (over 80%) consensus over the Raiders last week. We know how that worked out. That's the other reason I'm staying away.
*9.5 now.
posted by roQQ | 6:46 AM
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