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Has our hero hit rock bottom? He is hoping that his online sportsbook/poker accounts have hit bottom, but you can always go lower....They say that you have to hit rock bottom before you get help for an addiction, but if the addiction is profitable...

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Monday, October 12, 2009

Fantasy Recap, Late Pix

I’m stuck working on Columbus Day. It’s a government holiday, so pretty much everyone else is off. This is fine, since I have access to a computer with reasonably fast internet, as well as a bathroom nearby, where I can empty my guts of the wine, whiskey and beer I consumed yesterday while watching football.

I can’t access my fantasy team, and I can’t get on blogger. I can write an email to myself, and then cut and paste the whole thing to my blog later. At least I think I
can.

My momentary enthusiasm probably has something to do with the fact that I won this week, beating the only remaining undefeated team. Also, Roddy White broke loose for eight catches for 210 yards, and two touchdowns. The 210 yards was a career best, and a team record. My
league awards bonus points for plays longer than 40 yards (1 point) and 50 yards (2 points), so White’s 90 yard TD catch got me 12 points on its own. He got me 36 points for the day. I think
prior to this he was averaging 8.7* or so per week. Sunday’s performance brings his average up to about 15.5 per week. Insane.


Now I don’t feel so foolish drafting him in the 3rd round, with the 25th overall pick. Greg Jennings (the 24th pick, and my 2nd round pick) rewarded me in week one with a similar
performance. Since then he has done approximately squat, or slightly better than diddley squat.
If there is an upside to my 2nd and 3rd picks vastly underperforming, it’s that I don’t really fear benching them to take a shot at an unproven rookie, or last week’s hot receiver. I
feel like I pretty much have to, especially when my opponent’s key players are going up against the Buccaneers or Browns. (Last week I lost by about 40 or 50 because of this, and nice games from Chad85, Chris Cooley, and Santana Moss.


Last week I started Earl Bennett of the Chicago Bears at one wide receiver. He was Jay Cutler’s roommate at Vanderbilt, he was going up against the Lions, and Roddy White had a bye. Why the hell not? He immediately caught two passes for 32 yards. Unfortunately, he didn’t catch any more the rest of the game. He had some nice return yardage, but our league doesn’t give credit
for that. Too bad, because I have Darren Sproles as well.



This week I picked up and started Mohamed Massaquoi, the hot unknown receiver from last week. Unfortunately he only caught one pass for 16 yards. Hakeem Nicks outpointed Bennett last week, with one catch for 50+ yards and a touchdown. This week he had four catches for 49 yards…and a touchdown. I get the impression the Giants might like throwing to him in the red zone, owing to his Plax-like size. In our league, he got 11 points last week (on one catch) and 12 this week. I probably would have started him this week, if not for my pickups of Massaquoi and the Vikings’ Sidney Rice. Rice had 3 catches for 61 yards, which would have yielded me a whopping six points if I’d started him. Rice and Nicks are both arguably their teams’ 3rd receivers, so shouldn’t be worth starting, unless you have no other options. Next week Greg Jennings comes off the Packers' bye to face the Detroit Lions, so happy days could be here again, at least for fantasy starters from Green Bay .


Incidentally, Nicks is the only receiver left from my draft that I haven’t already cut, other than Jennings and White. I’ve cut Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and I’ve picked up Julian Endleman and dropped him again. Oh yeah, I started him in week 3, when Wes Welker was out. Weird. Weird because usually Bill Belichek won’t tell you if his players are going to play or not, but that week he did. After Endleman had one catch that week I decided he was not the answer to my problems. By the time ESPN’s fantasy experts came out with a list of droppables with his name on it, I had already dropped him. Earl Bennett is probably next, especially if Miles Austin is available. I think the Flaming Iguanas dropped him about week 3…


It sounds like Mario Manningham is injured, which could add some value to Nicks. I’m not sure how much Eli Manning will play, however, so this probably hurts his value, unless David Carr falls in love with him. If I’d been able to get the Giants’ Steve Smith I probably could have left
about five other guys alone. I should have gone after him a week sooner. Manningham was drafted, so was never available.


Eli was the reason I didn’t take NYGIANTS(-16)over Oakland . The Giants won, 44-7. My drinking before the game was the reason for me not taking PHILADELPHIA (-10.5?)over
tampa bay. That and their quarterback issues. Apparently QB doesn’t matter vs the dregs of the league. That, and Donovan McNabb looked AWESOME.


The Pats-Denver line was 3.5, until about 1:30 in the afternoon. I checked it then, and it was down to three. I tried to take the Pats, but it was back up to 3.5. So I stayed away. Good thing, since Denver won, 20-17 in OT. I guess I went 2-1 in the games I avoided. Make that 3-1. I loved Cincinnati getting 8.5. I stayed away from it basically out of Raven homerism, brought on by my owning Joe Flacco and Ray Rice. As for LeRon McClain, I let him go. Last I knew he was wasting space on somebody elses bench. The other part of my homerism stems from my living in the Baltimore area last year, and from my appreciation of the Ravens’ defense oriented identity,
personality, or whatever you want to call it.


The thing is, I’m not convinced that their defense is that good. I already knew you could throw on them, and Cedric Benson can run on them. Maybe he’s the only one, but I don’t know….


Oh yeah. I also loved Cincy giving 5.5 or 6 last week against Cleveland. That was the other thing that scared me off the Bengals.


So what games did I bet? I would’ve told you before, but for the game related drinking. I’ve posted enough losses late that you ought to be able to believe my late wins. And so far I’m 2-0.
I took minnesota(-10.5)over STLOUIS. The Vikings covered, 38-10. I also took indianapolis(-3.5)over TENNESSEE . This line was 3.5 earlier in the week. By game time Sunday night it had moved to 4.5. The Colts covered, 31-9. Tonight, I have

nyjets(-2)over MIAMI . That line moved to 3.5 by gametime.** Hopefully Rex Ryan’s defense can shut down Ronnie Brown and the ‘Fins’ wildcat. Because the team he left ( Baltimore, see above) is getting soft.


Maybe it’s because everyone talked about it after the Colts won on Monday night despite getting destroyed in time of possession, but it seems like a lot of games have been getting a bit lopsided
lately. The Giants had the ball for 36:04 this week. On the other hand, the Eagles had the ball for only 25:27, showing that the Colts aren’t the only team that can win without the ball.


On the other hand, if the Giants and Eagles have this ratio when they play each other, the Giants will win. When does this happen again? I’m 3-0 the last 3 times these teams have met. The underdog has won and covered each time.


The Seahawks had the ball for 34:44, and won by even more than the Giants and Eagles, 41-0. The game wasn’t too interesting, unless you were a fantasy owner.


I’m pretty sure Matt Hasselbeck didn’t start in our league, and I can’t remember who has him, but by my math he got about 38 points this week. (39, actually--the guy who had him on his bench also had Donovan McNabb on his bench, with 38. He started Shawn Hill, who got 14.) On the other hand, the proud owner of Seneca Wallace started him, to the tune of no stats, since he didn’t play. His other QB had a bye. I think it was Rodgers or Rivers. (No, Drew Brees) He
should’ve come to me. I would’ve traded him David Garrard. Garrard had three solid weeks in
a row. I considered starting him myself, since Seattle’s defense is probably a bit worse than Cincinnati’s, but I decided that Flacco is more consistent, and that I didn’t trust Garrard in Seattle, since that may be the biggest home-field advantage left. Garrard got his owners
a whopping nine points, if they started him. Joe Flacco got me 14, which may be a point or two less than Jay Cutler got me in week one.


This may be the first week that my starting QB actually scored more than my bench. Ironically, this was my worst QB week. Most weeks they all put up similarly strong numbers, showing that I drafted pretty well at QB, despite filling my entire offense first. I’d argue that I had the best draft in the league, if my receivers didn’t keep crapping out. I could have taken Reggie Wayne and Marquis Colston. Or Carolina ’s Steve Smith for that matter. I also could have had Tony Gonzalez over Jason Witten. I don’t think I’d be undefeated if I’d gone that way, but I might be close. I still think there were no good backs available at that point. On the other hand, I took Derrick Ward in the 4th, and I’ve already dropped him. Makes Pierre Thomas look pretty
good.


Oh yeah. Mike Sims-Walker didn’t play, which burned his fantasy owners. (Same guy that started Seneca Wallace in my League) Apparently he violated some team rule. This may explain Torry Holt’s resurrgance, with seven catches
for 95 yards. That would get me 15 points, even without touchdowns. Maybe I should pick him back up. Maybe he won’t be available….


The other thing that one this week for me other than Roddy White’s game was the fact that Marquis Colston and Vincent Jackson had byes, eliminating them from my opponent’s roster. He’s pretty stacked that way, most weeks. Of course, based on my draft, I should be too. I feel like he had other significant byes too…maybe on defense. I know he doesn’t have Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, or LT, because I’ve played those teams already…I know he benched Leon Washington, because he doesn’t have any starters left for the MNF game. I can’t think who his other guy was besides Chris Johnson. If he’d done anything I’d know….Maybe it was Steve
Slaton. (It was Brian Westbrook, who got 9 points)


Cedric Benson’s owner didn’t start him, she did start Darren McFadden, however. I don’t think he played, because he put up no stats. She had an awful draft, and has made no effort to improve her team since. I’d like to set her straight, but I’d rather play her first. I wouldn’t mind trying to snag players from her, but I’m pretty sure she knows Matt Schaub is good, and I can’t think
of anybody else I’d want. I think she has Housh, and maybe Anquan Boldin. I guess I’d consider them. If Matt Hasselbeck plays, Housh’s value goes way up. (As it turns out, her team would have outscored mine if she'd started Cedric Benson over McFadden. Not starting Benson vs. the Ravens is excuseable, but she really had no other moves that made any sense. I'd be pissed if I lost to an owner so negligent. Speaking of which, the guy that started Seneca Wallace and Mike Sims-Walker won his game too, despite his double doughnuts.)


*8.7 was exactly right. I origionally said he had 35 points, however...I think that is really what it said, earlier though, since sometimes the FantasyCast misses something and later corrects itself.



**It's halftime right now, as I edit this, and the Jets lead 13-10. If I'd taken the 'Fins(+3.5) late I could have a middle right now.

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