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Monday, October 12, 2009

Line Showdown, Early $$

I've been editing the last two posts, which I emailed to myself. Pain in the ass. It's the 3rd quarter of the Jets-Dolphins game, which has been very competitive--scratch that, the 4th quarter just started. The Jets just stuffed the 'Fins on 1st and goal...

Miami just scored, on a rollout pass to some big WOP tight end named Pizzano or something.
17-13, and my bet is in jeopardy. Meanwhile, the Week 6 lines are out, most of them, at least. Time to compare them to my guesses.

CIN 4.5(4.5) hou--got that one
MIN 3(3) balt--and that--usually I only get 2 right...
NO 3(4.5) nyg--this might move up--esp if Eli is questionable
PIT 14(10.5)cle--it's easy to be off on bigger lines
car 3(1) TB--how much do the Bucs suck? This much!
WASH 6.5(3) kc--I'm usually not this far off so often...I may have to take the Chiefs
JAX 10(5.5) stl--apparantly I think the semi-shitty teams are closer to the really shitty teams than vegas does...
SEA 3(2) ari--that's more like it--better teams are easier to handicap
phila 14(11) OAK--this equals 20 points at home...I still probably don't take Oakland
NE 9.5(7) tenn--when does Tennessee just give up?
ATL 3.5(3.5) chi--3rd one right--I'd rather be off by one or a half on more of these and get less right...
SD 4(3) den--see how much easier it is to pick the decent matchups? Incidentally, $$ is already going to Denver, indicating that my line might be closer to right...lately Monday night games have been moving about 2 points, so I may go for a middle...

I've jumped on NEW ORLEANS(-3)over nygiants, and den(+4)over SD. I think I can middle both of these, since the lines are already getting pressure.

The Dolphins just scored with 7 seconds left. 31-27. This Wildcat has been ridiculously effective. The 'Fin cheerleaders are also ridiculously hot. I knew the Jets were in trouble when they took the lead with 5 minutes to go. It was that kind of game.

I like kc(+6.5)over WASH, but I think it will go higher.

It's the next day and I just started listening to Bill & Sal guessing the lines. It's easiest to compare if I keep it right here, rather than start a new post. I don't think I'm going to do well, given how far off I am to the actual spreads...I think they may have the two lines that didn't post for me yesterday....actually these lines are up. GB 14(9)det, NYJ 10(6)buf. Wow. These are a couple of my worst ones...I wonder if it would have made a difference if I'd watched the Monday Night game...probably. Braylon Edwards looks like he can score at will. The Jets offense suddenly looks pretty explosive.

WASH(6.5--7)3,3,8 kc--that's the line, me, Bill, Sal--we'll go in that order..the 7 is their line
Bill loves KC--I agree--see above
PIT(14)10.5,11.5,11 cle,--I'm fartherst off, but we all essentially agree
JAX(10)5.5,10.5,8 stl
GB(14)9,11.5,10.5 det
NO(3)4.5,1.5,3 Sal gets this...Bill really likes the Giants, I might too, but this foot of Eli's...
MIN(3)3,4.5,3.5 I got this...they're waiting for the Vikings to screw up...now Bill likes the Vikes with 3
CIN(4.5--5)4.5,4,7 hou
car(3)1,4,6TB this one the line is in between us...probably this is because I lost on Delhomme...but so did they
phi(14)11,13.5,8.5 OAK Sal takes my lowball spot
SEA(3)2,3.5,4 ari I think I thought going to the Super Bowl gets you a little more respect...
NYJ(10)6,13,9buf again, NY's offense suddenly got good. I think I lay 10...money is coming in on the Bills, though, believe it or not
NE(9.5--9)7,8,7 tenn me and Sal agree...still don't know what to think of the Titans
ATL(3.5--3)3.5,3.5,4 chi me and Bill agree, but their line is 3--action on the Bears will bring it to 3 though

SD (4)3,3,5.5 den Sal figured the Chargers line would be inflated...Bill thinks 4 is inflated--I guess I agree, since we both said 3. This line is coming down, as I said before. I think I get
SD(-2.5) at the end of the week.

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