NFL Over/Unders

I've been checking out the total win props for the NFL, and right now I'm looking at
San Diego OVER 11 (+105). The UNDER is (-135), and I don't see why $$ is coming in on it. The Chargers get to play 12 games against the AFC West and NFC West. I can see them going 10-2 against these stiffs. Ladanian Tomlinson's departure probably makes them better,* and I suspect Vincent Jackson will sign in the end...not sure if VJax is a big factor with this number or not.

ESPN has the Chargers at #10 on their power ratings. While the reasoning behind their rankings is often strained, I agree with their assessment. On the other hand, San Diego joins the Colts as the only teams with an O/U of 11. I agree with this as well, based on their creampuff schedule. The Colts, by the way, were the only team whose total I bet last year. I think I took over 11, though it may have been 10.5. Came out better than my bet on the Pats to win the Super Bowl at 4/1.

Meanwhile, $$ on Minnesota has driven Vikings OVER 9.5 to (-140). I think their number would be higher, other than the continual Brett Favre retirement saga dampens it a bit. Apparently I'm not alone. On the other hand, the Vikes get to play the NFC East & AFC East, so their schedule is pretty tough. I still see them winning 10 games, but they have the Saints, Jets, Pats, Redskins, and Eagles on the road. Pretty nasty.

*Or Ryan Matthews makes them better. They may have an actual running game this year.

If I say I'm riding "die Mannschaft," does that make me gay?

I took Germany(+230) over Argentina yesterday. I didn't mention it here, but I did post on covers.com's facebook. Germany scored their first goal about three minutes in, and when Argentina became more desperate in the second half, die Mannschaft proceeded to crack their defense like a nut for three more goals.

4-nil. Go home, Diego Marradonna. I like that his exit showed us what we already knew, that he has no class. Apparently the betting public continues to be seduced by star players over teamwork. This effect seems to have been lessened by Germany's recent success, as they are a (+170) dog to Spain. Spain is (+155), and a draw is (+225). Spain has more star players, but they seem content with grinding out 1-nil victories. Spain is much better than Argentina defensively, and so present a different kind of challenge for the Germans. David Villa seems less dangerous than Leo Messi & Company, though he leads this World Cup in scoring, while Messi was held goalless. Villa favors one touch strikes, and his abrupt attacks may have more success against the solid German defense than the maneuverings of Messi.

Meanwhile, the greatest danger is from the German counterattack. Spain managed to contain Paraguay, but Germany certainly has more skill in the attack, if not more pace. I think the Germans' best chances will be on the break. I don't know if Germany will be able to maneuver their way through Spain the way they did Argentina (though they ultimately made that look easy), and I question whether or not Spain will open up if they get behind. Having said that, Germany still seems the more dangerous side. I'm not sure what the psychological implications of the '08 Euro are. This German team seems much improved, though I suspect the odds have more to do with the Spanish victory two years ago than with either teams current form.

Spain has only made the World Cup semifinals once before, while Germany has done so ten times, with three Championships and four runners up. While neither team is going to want to get behind, 1-0 will seem like more of a mountain to the Spanish. The fact that Spain started the World Cup as co-favorites with Brazil puts more pressure on them as well.

As for the other game, I'm too pro-Holland to be objective for their tilt with Uruguay. The Dutch are favored, going off at (-165) while Uruguay are (+550), and a draw is (+250). I also believe that you don't make $$ betting favorites. I had my chance to take Holland (+300)over Brazil, but avoided it due to my emotional involvement. Oh well. I'm not jumping in now, when I'm not getting a good price.

Unfortunately, I avoided taking Germany in their previous tilt due to pro-England bias. Most of my non-Dutch blood came over with the Puritans and Pilgrims, and I'm more familiar with the English players since I follow the Premiership. I'm sure many people utterly devoid of English blood were pulling for them due to the popularity of the Premier League. Whether or not this popularity abroad significantly contributed to the flood of money that made England a favorite in games where they did not deserve to be remains to be seen. England was about as much of a favorite in that game as Spain is in this one, and had done less to earn their favored status. (On the other hand, Germany had done less at that point as well...) You have no idea how itchy my trigger finger was before that game. If this had been the NFL playoffs I would have bet Germany without thinking twice about it. Maybe I need to get my priorities straight.

Betting on England is like betting on the Cubs. Consider yourself warned. Where was I? Oh yeah...

The Oranje are the better side, and they have a huge karmic advantage, since Uruguay essentially cheated their way past Ghana, though I guess this was within the rules. In any case, I expect the African fans to be behind Holland, since Uruguay screwed their last chance. If I'm right, Holland will have a nice home-field advantage. I've always heard that Africaaners hate the Dutch, but I expect support from them as well. It probably won't be as much of a home-field as Ghana could have expected. Honestly, I'd probably be more scared of Ghana's home field than I am of Uruguay and their marred karma. Maybe Uruguay will make this attitude look silly. The semis are about as far as home field tends to take the big underdogs, for instance South Korea in '02, Chile in '62, or the US in '94. Just kidding. We didn't get out of the first round.

So, I'm taking Germany(+170)over Spain. Since this looks like a tighter game, a draw at (+225) may make sense, if you don't favor Germany's chances as much as I do. If you like the under, you will have to pay for it (-150). Bodog won't let you parlay Spain and the Under. If I was taking Spain this is probably how I would like to do it. Parlaying Germany and Holland pays 3.34/1. I'm still thinking about that.

I've checked Bwin.com to see if their odds are any different. While the mammoth sportsbook sponsors Spanish giants Real Madrid, they are an Austrian company, so I am not surprised to see Germany favored there by about the same margin as Spain is on bodog. If you want to bet Spain this would be a better place to do it. If the truth is somewhere in between these two sets of odds, we're in for one hell of a game. Incidentally, Ladbrokes.com has them dead even, at 13/8 each.

This could be the last time I bet this World Cup, since I'm avoiding betting for or against Holland, and since fading Uruguay will no doubt be even more expensive if they play Germany or Spain. Sounds like some pre-NFL hibernation for me.