Road Favs win, Mississippi State sucks

This weekend I posted my picks on Twitter.  Here are the results.
missst(+24.5)over ALABAMA.  Oops--Bama wins, 38-7.  Apparently I was naive to think the Bulldogs would rise up and claim their birthright--a 21 point loss to the Crimson Tide.  Hmm.

newengland(-7)over STLOUIS.  Not really a home game for the Rams, who not only do not reside in London, but live further away than the road Patriots.  Did travel fatigue contribute to the Rams 45-7 loss?  Maybe. 

nygiants(-1)over DALLAS  The Giants tried to find a way to blow this game, and did surrender a
23-0 lead before coming back to win, 29-24.  The Cowboys came within a couple of Dez Bryant's fingers of winning this game.  I'll take it.

I went 2-1 on normal bets.  Unfortunately, I also bet the under (24) for the first half of
Giants-Cowboys.  If I remember right, it was 23-7 at half...maybe 23-10.

I double-teased sanfrancisco(-1), UNDER 44, ARIZONA(-14.5), UNDER 44.5.  The 'Niners crushed the Cardinals, 24-3, good for an under, so I split, and the result only cost me the vig on one bet.  Notice that as one-sided as this game was, I was only a garbage-time TD away from winning both sides of this play.

Viking playoff hopes greatly exaggerated

I've double teased the Thursday night game--again. MINNESOTA(pick)over tampabay, UNDER 49, and MINNESOTA(-0.5)over tampabay, OVER 38.  Home favorites are winning almost every Thursday night.  I don't really trust the Vikings to cover as seven point favorites, but they should win.

This is as good a time as any to mention that last week I double teased SANFRANCISCO(-2.5)overseattle, UNDER 44.5, and
seattle(+14)overSANFRANCISCO, UNDER 44.5.  The 49ers won, 13-6, and I covered  both ends.

Unfortunately, Doug Martin is running wild, and Tampa Bay leads, 27-10 in the third quarter.  It looks like I will lose both bets.  It stands to reason that now that everybody and his brother is aware of the disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday night, a road dog would win.

Looking back now, Tampa was a bit unlucky not to push the Saints to overtime last week, and the Vikings were perhaps becoming a bit overrated due to some close wins, so Tampa(+7) may have been the smart play.  Fuck it.

Ravens turn to suck ass

I've spent half the morning trying to figure out a teaser or parlay that I like out of TEXASA&M(+3.5)vs. lsu and A&M-LSU o/u 53.  It could make sense to parlay the Aggies and the OVER 53, or lsu and UNDER 53, but this game is so very strength vs. strength (LSU defense vs. A&M offense) and weakness vs. weakness (LSU offense vs. Aggie defense), that it is very difficult to predict how the game will go.

Something's got to give, but what?

That's why I've made similar bets on Baylor(+8.5) at Texas, o/u 79.5.  Both sides of this matchup are strength vs. weakness--Baylor's offense (strength) vs. Texas' defense (weakness), and Texas' offense (strength) vs. Baylor's defense (HUGE weakness).

The only problem I see is that Texas' biggest deficiency is their run defense, while Baylor's biggest strength is their passing game.  Still, this pretty well described West Virginia as well, and they ran for 200+ yards against the Longhorns.

Whatever.  Anyway, typically I would tease both teams with the OVER.  This would get me TEXAS(-2.5), OVER 72.5, and baylor(+14.5), OVER 72.5.  Unfortunately, this requires Texas to win by between 3 and 14 points to win both bets, and I feel like Baylor has a legitimate shot to upset the Longhorns.  That's why I teased TEXAS(-2.5)over baylor, and parlayed the  
Baylor moneyline (+280) with OVER 79.5.  This pays 6.255 to 1.  Nice.

I took indiana(+3)over NAVY.  Indiana scoared 49 points in a loss to Ohio State.  This tells me that OSU's D sucks, but I figure anyone who can hang 49 on the Buckeyes should be favored in a trip to Annapolis.

Also makes me think I should have considered the OVER for Purdue at Ohio State.

..........................................................

Aggs are up 12-0 in the 2nd quarter.  Right now A&M and the under looks pretty good.  Of course, this is not one of the bets I was considering.

I took penn state(+1.5)over IOWA.  I'm 2-0 on Penn State in the post-Sandusky era.  Betting Penn State reminds me of when I invested in BP in the post-Gulf oil spill era.  Dirty.  Profitable, but dirty.

..............................................................

Texas A&M ended up losing, 24-19, so if you'd teased LSU and the UNDER, you would have won.  If you'd bet the over on 4.5 A&M turnovers you would have won that as well.

Michigan ended four years of Spartan dominance, narowly beating Michigan State, 12-10, but failing to cover the spread, which opened at 10 and dropped to 8.5.  Denard Robinson improved his record vs. MSU to 1-3, just in time to graduate, or at least run out of eligibility.

Indiana lost to Navy, 31-30, covering the spread.  1-0 for me.

Penn State is currently up on Iowa, 38-7.  Penn State is handling the Hawkeyes like Jerry Sandusky showering with a ... never mind.  Too soon?

Too soon.

14 minutes to go in that one, but I'll go ahead and say I'm 2-0.

Texas is up, 56-43, with 12 minutes to go.  The over and the teased over are in, so I win as long as Texas doesn't win by one or two.  When it was 49-40 I was worried about Baylor scoring to close to 49-47, but now Baylor is unlikely to settle for field goals, so I feel pretty safe right now.

Tomorrow I have baltimore(+7)over HOUSTON, arizona(+7.5)over MINNESOTA, and TAMPABAY(+3)over neworleans.  I eventually found baltimore(+8)over HOUSTON and took that too.

I know Baltimore has lost multiple defensive starters, but at least they've shown the ability to come from behind, unlike Houston.

.........................................................

Where was I?  Besides on the wrong side of the Baltimore-Houston karmic ass-kicking....holy shit.
Makes me wonder if Baltimore can return the favor and completely humiliate the next team on their schedule...

Browns in Cleveland after their bye.  What a waste of karma.
                                                                               

I split Sunday

Went 1-1 today, losing with BALTIMORE(-3)over dallas, as the Ravens won by two (naturally),
31-29.  Most places the Ravens were favored by 3.5, so I was very happy to only give three.  Oops.

After that I had nygiants(+7)over SANFRANCISCO.  This line made no sense to me at all. Three to 3.5 seemed about right, 3.5 if you are looking at New York's lack of consistancy, 3 if you are thinking back to last year's NFC Championship game, or how much better the Giants play on the road.

Speaking of the Giants playing better, they dominated the 'Niners today, winning 26-3.  The 'Niners still have not shown that they are capable of coming from behind to win.  Neither have the Houston Texans, who lost tonight to the Packers, 42-24.  At the beginning of the week I heard conflicting lines for this game, varying from Packers(-1), to Texans(-6).  I was ready to try for a middle, but all I could  find was Texans by 3-3.5.  I guess it's just as well.

Red River Blowout

Not sure when I'll find an under that I like in a Big XII game.  I played the OVER(55) for the Red River Rivalry.  Texas didn't exactly keep up their end of the deal, but Oklahoma scored enough for both of them, winning 56-8.

Scratch that.  The game wasn't over yet.  The final score was 63-21.

After my horrendous showing last week, I wasn't motivated enough to post this before the game.   I also wasn't motivated enough to post my Monday Night bets.  I teased Houston and the OVER, and Houston and the UNDER, and won both ends, as the Texans won by six, and the two teams combined to score almost in the exact middle of my spread.

I thought about betting stanford(+7)overNOTREDAME, but at the moment I'm glad I didn't.  Notre Dame leads 3-0, but looks dominant.

I haven't been able to rattle Pugilant Mick's cage to get his opinion about the Irish chances vs Stanford.  I wonder what he would have told me.

Meanwhile, I've gotten a nice score playing poker on Bovada, more than making up for the bits I've lost during the week.  I need to play exclusively on the weekend.  That's when you're going to win some money.

I'm going to go cook some meat for a party, and drink heavily.  I think it's raining.  It rains points in the Big XII.

Hook 'em Horns, Gig 'em Aggs, Go Cocks!

Tomorrow I and Black Francis are going to the Texas-West Virginia game in his black Audi A6 with the 3.0 Supercharged V6.  Once I festoon him with UT gear he may become Burnt Orange Francis, but the Audi will still be black.  Can't have an Orange Audi.  It's not a fucking Lancer, after all.*

I don't trust WVU's defense enough to take wvu(+7)overTEXAS, and I don't trust the Texas D enough to take TEXAS(-6.5)overwvu, but I like the over, even if we're talking over 74.

If I like over 74, I love teasing it down to 68 or so.  So I'm taking TEXAS(-0.5)/OVER68.5, and also
westvirginia(+14)/OVER67.  I figure I'm winning at least one of these, unless Texas has a better defense than I think they do, in which case, the consolation prize will be that Texas has a better defense than I think they do.

I also bet baltimore(+6.5)over KANSASCITY, CINCINNATI(-3)over miami, and SOUTHCAROLINA(-1)over georgia.  Shortly afterwards I listened to the Behind the Bets podcast and the ESPN College Football podcast, and discovered that the wiseguys love KC and Miami this week, and the college experts think this will be a breakout week for Georgia, now that they have a couple of defensive standouts back from injury...or suspension...or something.  Oops.

Or maybe not oops.  I think I got a better line on Baltimore than what they were talking about, and maybe on Cincy as well.  Apparently the wiseguys love Miami's defense, and hate Cincinnati's.  I've been betting Miami myself, but it seems to me that Cincy should be favored by at least 3.5 at home, if not 4.  How good does Cincy's defense have to be vs the Dolphins? 

I was dumb enough to take KC and the points when they hosted the Ravens in the payoffs a couple of years ago...we'll see if my memory of that game is helping me or hurting me this week.  That was the game before the game where the Packers bounced the Eagles out of the playoffs.  Pennsyltucky Dave had this weird Eagle fan meltdown at Tilted Kilt as the game slipped away, and by the time I got him home he had degenerated into a drunken, slobbering mess.  Somehow I only experienced the marginally coherent, bitter but civilized Dave, while his wife had to put up with this incoherent, raving lunatic that couldn't remember anything the next day.  He was banned from drinking with me for about a year after that.

If you can get your friends loaded, get them home safely, and let somebody else put up with their bullshit, do it.  I highly recommend it.  It's kind of like leasing a car and beating the crap out of it for three years, only quicker and cheaper.

To me there are two kinds of SEC teams.  The ones who play great defense, and the ones who are involved in 80 point shootouts.  Call them the Big XII East.  Apparently Georgia has enough defensive talent (8 or so NFL bound D-starters) that they should be one of the former, but check last week's Tennessee score.  Back when USC lost to Texas they were the same way (only better), supposedly loaded on defense, but still giving up 40 points to Stanford and Fresno State.  ESPN's expert seemed pretty frustrated with the Bulldogs overall, which more or less sums up the last 31 or so years, if you ask me.

Meanwhile, USC East seems to be one of the SEC teams that actually plays defense.  Right now these teams are ranked 5th and 6th in the country, but defense makes the Cocks a better bet to stay in the top ten for a bit.  Give me the Cocks!...minus 1...points, not inches...all take all them inches...mmmmmmmm.

Where was I?  The weasels and cowards at Bovada are doing something not at all weasely or cowardly right now.  They are giving out $100 dollar refundable wagers, where you get your $$ back if you lose, but collect if you win.  I have taken them up on this offer to the tune of
texasa&m(-12.5)overOLEMISS.  I bet this partly because Ole Miss gives up 50 points per game to good teams, and partly because the over/unders weren't out yet yesterday--on Bovada, so I guess they're still cowardly.

Meanwhile, I went for a parlay on 5dimes of texasa&m(-12)/OVER65.5.  A bit riskier than a tease, but pays at 2.645 to 1.  If  Ole Miss can hang 30 on Texas, I imagine they'll do something similar vs A&M.

Now that Bovada has but up their totals, I have another $100 freeroll with them of
texasa&m(-14)/over65.  Unfortunately the line has moved, but I got a slightly better over, and this one pays 2.9 to 1...or zero, since it's a freeroll. 

I suppose they are hoping I'll routinely start betting larger figures.  Don't hold your breath, bovada.

* The exception that proves the rule is the Valencia Orange BMW 1M Coupe.  Interestigly enough, Frank's tennant actually has a Lancer, though it's yellow, not burnt orange.  Meanwhile, my tennants have a Toyota Camry and a Hyundai Santa Fe parked next to my 2.0T Wolfsburg Edition Jetta.  Not sure if landlords driving fine German sedans** while their renters drive rice burners is a coincidence or a trend.

**Or at least adequate.