Hook 'em Horns, Gig 'em Aggs, Go Cocks!

Tomorrow I and Black Francis are going to the Texas-West Virginia game in his black Audi A6 with the 3.0 Supercharged V6.  Once I festoon him with UT gear he may become Burnt Orange Francis, but the Audi will still be black.  Can't have an Orange Audi.  It's not a fucking Lancer, after all.*

I don't trust WVU's defense enough to take wvu(+7)overTEXAS, and I don't trust the Texas D enough to take TEXAS(-6.5)overwvu, but I like the over, even if we're talking over 74.

If I like over 74, I love teasing it down to 68 or so.  So I'm taking TEXAS(-0.5)/OVER68.5, and also
westvirginia(+14)/OVER67.  I figure I'm winning at least one of these, unless Texas has a better defense than I think they do, in which case, the consolation prize will be that Texas has a better defense than I think they do.

I also bet baltimore(+6.5)over KANSASCITY, CINCINNATI(-3)over miami, and SOUTHCAROLINA(-1)over georgia.  Shortly afterwards I listened to the Behind the Bets podcast and the ESPN College Football podcast, and discovered that the wiseguys love KC and Miami this week, and the college experts think this will be a breakout week for Georgia, now that they have a couple of defensive standouts back from injury...or suspension...or something.  Oops.

Or maybe not oops.  I think I got a better line on Baltimore than what they were talking about, and maybe on Cincy as well.  Apparently the wiseguys love Miami's defense, and hate Cincinnati's.  I've been betting Miami myself, but it seems to me that Cincy should be favored by at least 3.5 at home, if not 4.  How good does Cincy's defense have to be vs the Dolphins? 

I was dumb enough to take KC and the points when they hosted the Ravens in the payoffs a couple of years ago...we'll see if my memory of that game is helping me or hurting me this week.  That was the game before the game where the Packers bounced the Eagles out of the playoffs.  Pennsyltucky Dave had this weird Eagle fan meltdown at Tilted Kilt as the game slipped away, and by the time I got him home he had degenerated into a drunken, slobbering mess.  Somehow I only experienced the marginally coherent, bitter but civilized Dave, while his wife had to put up with this incoherent, raving lunatic that couldn't remember anything the next day.  He was banned from drinking with me for about a year after that.

If you can get your friends loaded, get them home safely, and let somebody else put up with their bullshit, do it.  I highly recommend it.  It's kind of like leasing a car and beating the crap out of it for three years, only quicker and cheaper.

To me there are two kinds of SEC teams.  The ones who play great defense, and the ones who are involved in 80 point shootouts.  Call them the Big XII East.  Apparently Georgia has enough defensive talent (8 or so NFL bound D-starters) that they should be one of the former, but check last week's Tennessee score.  Back when USC lost to Texas they were the same way (only better), supposedly loaded on defense, but still giving up 40 points to Stanford and Fresno State.  ESPN's expert seemed pretty frustrated with the Bulldogs overall, which more or less sums up the last 31 or so years, if you ask me.

Meanwhile, USC East seems to be one of the SEC teams that actually plays defense.  Right now these teams are ranked 5th and 6th in the country, but defense makes the Cocks a better bet to stay in the top ten for a bit.  Give me the Cocks!...minus 1...points, not inches...all take all them inches...mmmmmmmm.

Where was I?  The weasels and cowards at Bovada are doing something not at all weasely or cowardly right now.  They are giving out $100 dollar refundable wagers, where you get your $$ back if you lose, but collect if you win.  I have taken them up on this offer to the tune of
texasa&m(-12.5)overOLEMISS.  I bet this partly because Ole Miss gives up 50 points per game to good teams, and partly because the over/unders weren't out yet yesterday--on Bovada, so I guess they're still cowardly.

Meanwhile, I went for a parlay on 5dimes of texasa&m(-12)/OVER65.5.  A bit riskier than a tease, but pays at 2.645 to 1.  If  Ole Miss can hang 30 on Texas, I imagine they'll do something similar vs A&M.

Now that Bovada has but up their totals, I have another $100 freeroll with them of
texasa&m(-14)/over65.  Unfortunately the line has moved, but I got a slightly better over, and this one pays 2.9 to 1...or zero, since it's a freeroll. 

I suppose they are hoping I'll routinely start betting larger figures.  Don't hold your breath, bovada.

* The exception that proves the rule is the Valencia Orange BMW 1M Coupe.  Interestigly enough, Frank's tennant actually has a Lancer, though it's yellow, not burnt orange.  Meanwhile, my tennants have a Toyota Camry and a Hyundai Santa Fe parked next to my 2.0T Wolfsburg Edition Jetta.  Not sure if landlords driving fine German sedans** while their renters drive rice burners is a coincidence or a trend.

**Or at least adequate.