The one that got away...
I was trying to throw down on nyjets(+6)overPITTSBURGH, but two things stopped me.
a.) The line dropped to 4.5 or 5, depending on where you look. This is not insurmountable, if you are willing to pay some more vig at 5dimes, but...
b.) 5dimes website froze up about 10 minutes before game time. Are they getting crazy action? Is it my half-assed computer? Not sure, but the timing makes me not want to blame my piece of shit computer for once.
If I want to go jets+5 I can still do it. Otherwise, this is a 4:00 game, so maybe 5dimes will clear up in the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, this is making it a bit tough to report my other picks, since some of my bets are on 5dimes. Some of this will be from memory.
Took NYGIANTS(-7)overtampabay. Initially my thought was that Tampa Bay was the value here, but I did a bit of math using the power ratings at covers.com, and according to their power ratings, the Giants should be favored by 10. (The lines were from 7 to 9)
Right now Tampa Bay is up, 10-6, which makes me think I should have trusted my own line over covers.com's power rating. The Giants can be notoriously inconsistent, making it easy to over or underrate them.
I took minnesota(-2.5)overINDIANAPOLIS, basically betting that the Viking pass rush would give Luck problems, and that AD won't break anything this week. Right now Indy leads 7-6, troubling both because Indy leads, and because they lead by one, which could lead to Minny winning by 2. Sad, because my initial thought was that Indy should be favored by one. The Viking steam changed my opinion.
Make that 17-6, Indy. Remind me to remember to take home field advantage seriously.
Speaking of which, I took washington(-2.5)overSTLOUIS. This one hasn't started yet. If the 'Skins can win in New Orleans, they ought to be able to handle STL...hopefully.
At the moment, my play of the day is taking oakland(-1)overMIAMI on 5dimes, and MIAMI(+3)overoakland on bovada. At the half, Oakland leads, 10-7. Go middle!
Otherwise, I already mentioned I had baltimore(+3)overPHILADELPHIA...Baltimore is up 17-7 at the half, so gotta like that, as well as yesterday's texasa&m(-10)overSMU, won by the Aggies, 48-3.
Philly is only down 17-14 & is threatening. Meanwhile, I've taken SEATTLE(+3.5)overdallas. Trusting dogs and home field over steam...or rather, the steam is coming in on the Seahawks as well, because of their home field advantage.
I'm taking nyjets(+6)overPITTSBURGH (finally). How many bad bets have I made while thinking about that bet?
...................................................................
The smoke has cleared from the early games, and...it could have been worse. The Vikings lost, and so did I, 23-20. Don't let fantasy studs blind you to the horribleness of horrible teams. Minnesota had AD last year too, and they won--what, four games?
The Giants made a big dramatic comeback, and won by seven, and I escaped with a push. They actually got up by a TD, gave up a quick score to let the Bucs tie it, then drove down into scoring position. With about a minute to go, Andre Brown, who I'd never heard of before, had the presence of mind to slide down on the two rather than score. He set the Giants up to run down the clock and win with a field goal. It was a smart play, and it had me swearing at the tv. I'm not sure if Tom Coughlin determined that there was slightly more time left than the Giants could comfortably run out, or if he realized that thousands of New Yorkers were about to not cover, but Brown ran it in on the next play. They got the extra point, and got a pick in the final minute, and I pushed.
The sad part is that if I'd taken the Bucs I would have had 8 or 9 points, and would have been covering for almost the entire game. Until I started looking at covers.com's power ratings I would have taken the Bucs, too.
I lump those games together because outside information got me to second guess my own opinions, and to go against them. I went 0-1-1 on those two.
Meanwhie, the Dolphins took over their game vs. the Raiders, and won, 35-13. It lost me my possible middle, not a big deal, though I would have felt way clever to pull off a win/win, or even a win/push.
The Ravens blew their lead, and lost, 24-23 to the Eagles, but covered. I'll take it.
a.) The line dropped to 4.5 or 5, depending on where you look. This is not insurmountable, if you are willing to pay some more vig at 5dimes, but...
b.) 5dimes website froze up about 10 minutes before game time. Are they getting crazy action? Is it my half-assed computer? Not sure, but the timing makes me not want to blame my piece of shit computer for once.
If I want to go jets+5 I can still do it. Otherwise, this is a 4:00 game, so maybe 5dimes will clear up in the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, this is making it a bit tough to report my other picks, since some of my bets are on 5dimes. Some of this will be from memory.
Took NYGIANTS(-7)overtampabay. Initially my thought was that Tampa Bay was the value here, but I did a bit of math using the power ratings at covers.com, and according to their power ratings, the Giants should be favored by 10. (The lines were from 7 to 9)
Right now Tampa Bay is up, 10-6, which makes me think I should have trusted my own line over covers.com's power rating. The Giants can be notoriously inconsistent, making it easy to over or underrate them.
I took minnesota(-2.5)overINDIANAPOLIS, basically betting that the Viking pass rush would give Luck problems, and that AD won't break anything this week. Right now Indy leads 7-6, troubling both because Indy leads, and because they lead by one, which could lead to Minny winning by 2. Sad, because my initial thought was that Indy should be favored by one. The Viking steam changed my opinion.
Make that 17-6, Indy. Remind me to remember to take home field advantage seriously.
Speaking of which, I took washington(-2.5)overSTLOUIS. This one hasn't started yet. If the 'Skins can win in New Orleans, they ought to be able to handle STL...hopefully.
At the moment, my play of the day is taking oakland(-1)overMIAMI on 5dimes, and MIAMI(+3)overoakland on bovada. At the half, Oakland leads, 10-7. Go middle!
Otherwise, I already mentioned I had baltimore(+3)overPHILADELPHIA...Baltimore is up 17-7 at the half, so gotta like that, as well as yesterday's texasa&m(-10)overSMU, won by the Aggies, 48-3.
Philly is only down 17-14 & is threatening. Meanwhile, I've taken SEATTLE(+3.5)overdallas. Trusting dogs and home field over steam...or rather, the steam is coming in on the Seahawks as well, because of their home field advantage.
I'm taking nyjets(+6)overPITTSBURGH (finally). How many bad bets have I made while thinking about that bet?
...................................................................
The smoke has cleared from the early games, and...it could have been worse. The Vikings lost, and so did I, 23-20. Don't let fantasy studs blind you to the horribleness of horrible teams. Minnesota had AD last year too, and they won--what, four games?
The Giants made a big dramatic comeback, and won by seven, and I escaped with a push. They actually got up by a TD, gave up a quick score to let the Bucs tie it, then drove down into scoring position. With about a minute to go, Andre Brown, who I'd never heard of before, had the presence of mind to slide down on the two rather than score. He set the Giants up to run down the clock and win with a field goal. It was a smart play, and it had me swearing at the tv. I'm not sure if Tom Coughlin determined that there was slightly more time left than the Giants could comfortably run out, or if he realized that thousands of New Yorkers were about to not cover, but Brown ran it in on the next play. They got the extra point, and got a pick in the final minute, and I pushed.
The sad part is that if I'd taken the Bucs I would have had 8 or 9 points, and would have been covering for almost the entire game. Until I started looking at covers.com's power ratings I would have taken the Bucs, too.
I lump those games together because outside information got me to second guess my own opinions, and to go against them. I went 0-1-1 on those two.
Meanwhie, the Dolphins took over their game vs. the Raiders, and won, 35-13. It lost me my possible middle, not a big deal, though I would have felt way clever to pull off a win/win, or even a win/push.
The Ravens blew their lead, and lost, 24-23 to the Eagles, but covered. I'll take it.
posted by roQQ | 1:25 PM
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