Cue the Banjos

I'm about to go out drinking & watching hoops with Pennsyltucky Dave. I have $$ on FloridaState(-4)over Virginia Commonwealth, and Ohio State(-6)over Kentucky. OSU opened as a 5.5 point favorite, and is now (one hour before gametime) a 6.5 point favorite. I'm guessing that Dave will root for the Buckeyes because they are Big 10, and because I might make redneck jokes about him if he roots for Kentucky.

Really he probably doesn't care now that Penn State & Villanova are out.

VCU & FSU were probably among the most impressive teams last round. VaComm seemed unstoppable, while FlaSt seemed impregnable. Something's gotta give.

To parlay, or not to parlay

I managed to go 2-1 Friday on my first half bets. I lost with Kansas(-13)33, BU 29, but won with North Carolina(-9.5)53, Long Island 42, and Syracuse(-7)38, Indiana State 30. I caught a bit of UNC in the first half, and at the time it looked like I would lose that one as well. What I caught of the Syracuse game made me think they were firmly in control, but they barely covered. Kansas took over in the second half and won by 19, still shy of the 23 they were favored by.

Chad Millman's wiseguys recommended Washington(+3.5)over North Carolina, and this morning the line had moved to UW(+5), but I waited too long. Too bad. The Huskies lead at the half, 45-44.

I've parlayed the Purdue and Kansas moneylines, which pays a little worse than 1/2. Hopefully we don't get any surprises from Virginia Commonwealth or Illinois.

Today's wiseguy experts seem to like to quote alot of past history of what the various seeds have done in the past. I'm not crazy about this approach, since these may not indicate anything useful for today's games. After all, how much did we hear about how badly the selection committee seeded the tournament? I suspect you can trust the stats about one seeds beating up on eights and nines. Beyond that, I don't know that two-seeds being 23-16 vs. 10-seeds indicates much about Notre Dame(-5) vs. Florida State.

On the other hand, Florida State's win over Texas A&M was low scoring enough that I'm tempted to take UNDER 130 for ND v FSU. I also like the idea of parlaying Florida State and the under, but while this makes sense, these bets never seem to work out for me. That's why I'm taking Florida State(+5)over Notre Dame, and FSU-ND UNDER 130 instead. No parlay, just two seperate bets instead. If Notre Dame is as overachieving and underathletic as I keep hearing, they should be ripe fruit for an athletic, defense-minded team like Florida State.

Half assed wagers

I went 1-2 yesterday, as Utah State held on to lose by 5, and Michigan State roared back to turn a blowout into a respectable two point loss.

Today the top seeds play, and I've adjusted my strategy. I'm betting first half lines in mismatch games, with the idea that the big teams can jump out to early leads, but may blow these leads when they play their subs in the 2nd halves. On that note, I have Kansas(-13)over BU,

North Carolina(-9.5)over Long Island, and Syracuse(-7)over Indiana State. All these are first half lines. The full game lines for these games are KU(-23), UNC(-17.5), and

Syracuse(-12.5).

I thought about taking Duke as well, but their first half line (14) seems a bit heavy relative to the game line...or does it? It's about the same as KU...and Duke is up 28-16, with 6 minutes left in the first half.

None of my games have happened yet, but it looks like I could have followed the same strategy with Ohio State and Duke and been successful. Hopefully the games I actually bet will do as well.

Spiders Man Up

I caught about half of the CBS bracket seedings last Sunday. The proceedings were wedged between 30 second chunks of condescending surliness from the Dodge guy with the deep voice and the shitty attitude. Unfortunately I've been busy enough that I never managed to make out a bracket, especially with the four extra games sneaking up on me on Wednesday night. What a load of crap. Way to dilute your product, CBS.

Speaking of loads of crap, and Dodge, I just saw a Dodge ad where Dodge has their own version of the bat signal. How juvenile. Anyway, while I haven't done a bracket, I have bet on some games, and one of them is already at halftime, so...

Richmond(+3)over Vanderbilt. What little research I've done indicates that this game is a tossup. Richmond was good last year. At halftime Richmond actually trailed by exactly three, but now they are down six, 48-42, 15 minutes to go.

Utah State(+3)over Kansas State. 12 vs. 5. Kansas State is getting screwed here. Utah State should be higher than a 12 seed. Not that KState isn't capable of winning this, but give me the points. Utah State should be seeded higher than Michigan State, for instance. Speaking of which,

Michigan State(-1)over UCLA. Michigan State sucks this year, but they are favored as a 10 seed over a 7 seed, either because the Pac 10 sucks, or because State always seems to make a run in the tournament. State sucks vs. the spread as well, but if they win you at least get a push.

I'm re-listening to Chad Millman on the BS Report, and just found out that Chad, Teddy Covers, and others think Vandy is going to bury Richmond. Oops. On the other hand, Richmond is now up, 55-52...make that it's tied, 55 all.

Michigan State is now favored by 1.5. Hardly a shock that $$ is coming in on the Spartans, despite their dismal season...Richmond is now up, 64-62, four minutes to go. This game need to end, so I can go burn off the beer I'm going to drink later during State-UCLA.

Richmond won, 69-66. Too bad I'm not publishing this until now. Of course, if I had my shit together I wouldn't have bet this game.

Oh yeah. I won my bet on UNC over Duke, but lost my tease on Baylor and the over vs. Texas. Ho-hum.

I pick 'Heels, fade 'Horns

Last day of the college hoops regular season, and I've taken BAYLOR(+8.5)over texas, OVER 128. Texas had something to play for if Kansas lost, but since the Jayhawks won earlier, the 'Horns have 2nd place in the Big XII locked up regardless of the outcome in Waco tonight. Texas has also lost three of their last four games. Baylor needs to win this game to get to 8-8 in the Big XII, and a win over Texas could be their ticket into the NCAA tournament. Last year the Bears were 3-0 over the Longhorns as well. Of course, last year Texas underachieved, while Baylor overachieved their way to an Elite Eight finish, and this year the tables have turned, so....

Meanwhile, I've taken NORTH CAROLINA(-1)over duke. Accuscore has Duke winning by about two on average, but I'd rather have the home team in a tight game. The two teams have identical 13-2 records in ACC play, so this game will determine the ACC Championship. It's games like these that the truly great teams manage to win on the road. Is Duke great? Maybe. I'm a little more concerned with UNC's mediocre showing last year, but in college things change in a hurry.